RaidersAreOne Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Anc360 said: Mahomes: 4646 passing yards, 34 TD/5 INT, 65.9% completion, 108.9 passer rating, 324 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs, 2 lost fumbles. 13-3 record as a starter (including playoffs). If Mahomes accumulated these stats in the regular season is there any chance he gets a second consecutive MVP award? I personally think Lamar still wins it but I do think the perception has been that Mahomes has significantly regressed in terms of his stats. That’s not really the case. I mean 16 less TD's than his previous season is pretty significant imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 23 hours ago, RaidersAreOne said: Carr has to be close or worse than Bradford. Derek is at 1.85 million David is at 1.74 million Foles is interesting on a per team basis. Philly - 724k KC - 875k (he its technically 1-0 but he went 16-22 for 223 and 2 TDs in long relief for the other win so I divided by 2) St Louis - 3.00 million Jags - Infinity (ouch) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hukos Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 5 hours ago, RaidersAreOne said: I mean 16 less TD's than his previous season is pretty significant imo. He also had 80 less passing attempts. Naturally that's going to reduce the total volume of touchdown throws. Now his TD% did go down (8.6% to 5.4%), but Mahomes was still incredibly efficient. His INT% dramatically decreased too, going from 2.1% to 1% This is why TD/INT ratio or volume TDs/volume INTs are a really dumb statistic because game scripts are going to screw with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrnastiesNO Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 On 1/13/2020 at 2:05 PM, animaltested said: Last six games of the season; Seattle opponents had 0 offensive holding penalties. Kinda mindboggling if you ask me. They definitely did not play the Saints then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 In this article from OverTheCap, they are making the argument that going for 2 is almost always better than kicking the PAT I'm not bright enough to fully understand the stats around this, so I was hoping that some of you can shed some light on it The part I am confused by is that they look at PAT success rate of 94 % chance of getting 1 pt and suggest that you're actually better off to have a 49 % chance of getting 2 pts Where I struggle is how do you account for the fact that you either get 2 or 0 if you come up short, vs a 94 % chance of getting 1pt with the PAT ? https://overthecap.com/two-point-conversions-look-into-it/ Here's the Expected Points Added data"Over the course of the 2018 and 2019 seasons, kickers combined to make 94.1% of extra point attempts, meaning the Expected Points Added (EPA) for that play is 0.941 " During those same two seasons, the NFL’s two-point conversion rate was 49.4%, which is an EPA of 0.988 " So in my thinking, you have a greater than 50% chance of getting no points at all. So the only way to make it work is to go for 2 on every TD Over the course of an entire season, these numbers average out - but in a single instance, I'm not sure it makes as much sense as they claim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Ramster Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, Shanedorf said: In this article from OverTheCap, they are making the argument that going for 2 is almost always better than kicking the PAT I'm not bright enough to fully understand the stats around this, so I was hoping that some of you can shed some light on it The part I am confused by is that they look at PAT success rate of 94 % chance of getting 1 pt and suggest that you're actually better off to have a 49 % chance of getting 2 pts Where I struggle is how do you account for the fact that you either get 2 or 0 if you come up short, vs a 94 % chance of getting 1pt with the PAT ? https://overthecap.com/two-point-conversions-look-into-it/ Here's the Expected Points Added data"Over the course of the 2018 and 2019 seasons, kickers combined to make 94.1% of extra point attempts, meaning the Expected Points Added (EPA) for that play is 0.941 " During those same two seasons, the NFL’s two-point conversion rate was 49.4%, which is an EPA of 0.988 " So in my thinking, you have a greater than 50% chance of getting no points at all. So the only way to make it work is to go for 2 on every TD Over the course of an entire season, these numbers average out - but in a single instance, I'm not sure it makes as much sense as they claim Friday night lights baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 (edited) The answer to the 2 point conversion argument is that its not based on helping a team win any individual game but what happens if you go for 2 over 1000 times vs kicking the extra point over 100 times. Every time you go for 2 you increase the risk of only getting 6 points which then forces you to take the same risk and so on. If you get a penalty on the other team that moves the ball to the 1 then the odds of getting 1 yard only are so much higher that it makes a significant change to the probability. From the 2, going for 2 is for losers or desperate teams that have no choice. Edited January 24, 2020 by SkippyX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MagicMT Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 (edited) On 13/01/2020 at 3:05 PM, animaltested said: Last six games of the season; Seattle opponents had 0 offensive holding penalties. Kinda mindboggling if you ask me. Well... have you seen our DL? With a hobbled Clowney (who's a very good overall player but not an elite pass-rusher) and... erm... the MIGHTY Rasheem Green - 4 sacks, leader of the team this year or.. the FEARSOME Quinton Jefferson (2nd - 3.5s) or better yet, the FEROCIOUS hero from the past, Ezekiel Ansah (2.5) Yeah, no need to commit penalties when you're facing that line-up! Hope they address the DL this offseason, yikes. Edited January 24, 2020 by MagicMT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakuvious Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
11sanchez11 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Ha lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 What did he tweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
11sanchez11 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Forge said: What did he tweet Just said it was BS that Kyler won ORoY Which is fine. I just thought it was funny he said it was fine he said it but not that he tweeted it lol. How does that make sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sherm Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Nothing to apologize about. AJ has a right to be mad he didn't win the award. He had a legit season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1000 yards 8 TDs another rushing TD and 20+ yards per catch Brown >> Murray Jacobs >> Murray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 5 hours ago, 11sanchez11 said: Just said it was BS that Kyler won ORoY Which is fine. I just thought it was funny he said it was fine he said it but not that he tweeted it lol. How does that make sense? Translation: my last tweet was true and exactly how I feel, but I shouldn’t have put it out on social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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