Jump to content

TNF: Bucs at Bears


Malfatron

winner  

38 members have voted

  1. 1. who wins



Recommended Posts

13 minutes ago, bananabucket said:

Bears can win whenever their offense decides to eke out 20 points.

Foles was named the starter on Monday (off day)

  • He had T-F for practice

They had a short week

  • He had M-W for practice.

This team has had 7 days max first team reps with their starting QB.

I expect them to hit 20+ with regularity.

 

If Green Bay or Chicago sweep they take the division. I would lean Green Bay right now but lets see how it goes.

I think the other team grabs the 5th seed and a date in Philly (Saints and Bucs are already 0-2 against the North)

  • I am counting out Dallas based on the report today that Tyron Smith may be out for the year.

Could you imagine Foles going to Philly for a playoff game?

Edited by SkippyX
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

What’s your prediction? 

10 or 11 wins. This 4-1 team finishes 6-5 or 7-4 the rest of the way

Likely losses in LA and in Green Bay

Wins vs Minny x2, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, and Jax

They win 1 of Green Bay in Chicago, Saints in Chicago, at Titans,

There is a chance that they win 2 of the last 3 and drop one to the Vikings.

 

If I had to pick a single win total I would pick 11

If you wanted a spread I would say 3% 13 wins 10% 12 wins, 45% 11 wins, 30% 10 wins, 8% 9 wins and 4% it goes off the rails.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4-1 with wins over 1-3 Lions, 0-4 Giants, 0-4 Falcons and 3-2 Bucs (4-9). All wins were by 4 points or less. Season point differential is 5! Came into season with 8.5 O/U on wins.

 

Comparable 4-1 starts:

2016 Raiders. PD of 12, all 1 score games. Wins were over 2-3 Saints, 2-3 Titans, 3-2 Ravens and 1-4 Chargers (8-8). Preseason wins O/U: 8.5. Ended up going 12-4.

2009 Bengals. PD of 17, all 1 score games. Wins over 3-2 Packers, 3-2 Steelers, 3-2 Ravens, 1-4 Browns (10-6). Preseason wins O/U: 7.0. Ended up going 10-6.

2008 Redskins. PD of 20, all 1 score wins. Wins over 4-1 Cowboys, 3-2 Cardinals, 2-3 Eagles, 2-3 Saints (11-5). Preseason wins O/U: 7.5. Ended up going 8-8. 

2006 Rams. PD of 20, all 1 score games. Wins over 4-1 Broncos, 1-4 Cardinals, 0-5 Lions, 1-4 Packers (6-10). Preseason wins O/U: 7.0. Ended up going 8-8.

2001 49ers. PD of 21, multiple OT wins. Wins over 2-3 Falcons (x2 OT), 3-2 Jets, 1-4 Panthers (8-8). Preseason wins O/U: 7.5. Ended up going 12-4. 

2000 Jets. PD of 22, all 1 score wins. Wins over 2-3 Bills, 1-4 Pats, 2-3 Packers, 3-2 Bucs (8-8). Preseason wins O/U: 8.0. Ended up going 9-7

 

None of these teams appeared to play as easy a schedule as the Bears, and of course none of their PDs were quite as low, but a pretty mixed bag in terms of future success. All the playoff teams were 1 and done it is worth noting, but then again, teams have had negative PDs through 5 games and won the SB (2007 Giants), so not much conclusions to draw in either direction. It is certainly interesting for a team to have a 4-1 record by such razor thin margins, and while it gives them breathing room which they could take advantage of to make changes and improve, odds are they will certainly start losing some of these close games and in the event they don't improve end up closer to .500.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, SkippyX said:

10 or 11 wins. This 4-1 team finishes 6-5 or 7-4 the rest of the way

Likely losses in LA and in Green Bay

Wins vs Minny x2, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, and Jax

They win 1 of Green Bay in Chicago, Saints in Chicago, at Titans,

There is a chance that they win 2 of the last 3 and drop one to the Vikings.

 

If I had to pick a single win total I would pick 11

If you wanted a spread I would say 3% 13 wins 10% 12 wins, 45% 11 wins, 30% 10 wins, 8% 9 wins and 4% it goes off the rails.

 

This Bears team going 5-1 in the division...? No. I’d say Houston upsets them as well. They are much better than their record and so are the Vikings. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

This Bears team going 5-1 in the division...? No. I’d say Houston upsets them as well. They are much better than their record and so are the Vikings. 

They don't need to go 5-1. they already won a game.

They need to go 4-1 and I've already said that losing again to Green Bay is very possible so 3-2

 

You are picking a 1-3 team and an 0-4 team over a 4-1 team because you are hot take bro.

Just stop already.

Edited by SkippyX
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, SkippyX said:

They don't need to go 5-1. they already won a game.

They need to go 4-1 and I've already said that losing again to Green Bay is very possible so 3-2

 

You are picking a 1-3 team and an 0-4 team over a 4-1 team because you are hot take bro.

Just stop already.

Bears aren’t getting 11 wins. End of story. Willing to take a wager if you want. 9 or less I win, 10 neutral, 11+ you win. 
 

They are a good team but not by very much. We have seen sooooo many teams start 4-1 or 5-0 and end up 8-8. Why would the Bears be any different? Their QB situation is horrendous and their offense in general. 
 

And how is picking the divisional rival Vikings over the Bears a hottake? Wtf? Sounds like you suffer from major recency bias. Vikings will definitely split with the Bears. 

Edited by BayRaider
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




×
×
  • Create New...