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Christian McCaffrey possibly to miss a couple weeks (again)

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7 hours ago, JonStark said:

Is this sarcasm? Unless I'm missing something, the dude hasn't been hurt in his entire career before this year.

It's a ff meme. Back around 06-09 somewhere someone called LT overrated because he might get hurt. 

All hell broke lose. 

Some lived, some died.

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Whats the track record on running backs getting massive paydays? It's not good is it?

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Ah, nice of him to come back for 1 week to **** me and knock me out of the playoffs before taking another rest. 

 

In all seriousness, love the player and hope he's not an injury prone player going forward. League is better with him in.

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what I’ve always hated most about fantasy football is all the dudes that whine about their fantasy team when a dude gets injured 

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1 hour ago, Ty21 said:

what I’ve always hated most about fantasy football is all the dudes that whine about their fantasy team when a dude gets injured 

why?

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In this edition of: Why you don't pay RBs long term contracts.

Everybody who made the comment of "but this one is different" needs to be called to task. 

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1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

In this edition of: Why you don't pay RBs long term contracts.

Everybody who made the comment of "but this one is different" needs to be called to task. 

Barkley and McCaffrey. Both drafted too high despite their immense talent. Almost brings a tear to the eye. 

Still wish the 49ers would have taken McCaffrey over Soloman Thomas though. 

Edited by TecmoSuperJoe

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3 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

In this edition of: Why you don't pay RBs long term contracts.

Everybody who made the comment of "but this one is different" needs to be called to task. 

How does a McCaffrey shoulder injury that might make him miss one game prove anything... do you make the same assertion when other players at other positions get injured?  Top tight ends seem to always get hurt or banged up, but nobody says anything bad about the George Kittle contract. 

Given the career trajectory of other elite RBs on par with McCaffrey, there is no reason to expect him to decline sharply before the end of his contract, something I have went back and checked before (IIRC, RBs with numbers comparable to McCaffrey's in his first 3 years actually showed a tendency to get even better statistically between 24-27 or 28, forget which one... I'd have to go back and find the thread).  Sure, it's possible.  Anything is possible.  But he'll likely still be a great player until he's 28ish - and by the time he's 30, he will be a UFA.

Not all RBs are the same.  Yes, there a lot of players who play RB who don't deserve long-term contracts.  That does not = "RBs don't deserve long-term contracts."  Context with the player is important.  Not to mention, it ain't even like this contract is stopping the Panthers from doing anything else.  All we have is dead money and short-term contracts outside of McCaffrey and Thompson (who we will almost certainly release after 2021 anyway).  Us paying McCaffrey changed nothing for us.  And when he's played for us this year, he's been our best offensive player by a long-shot.  He'll be fine.  We're literally talking about a minor shoulder injury and an ankle sprain.  Could have happened to anyone.  There is no reason to chalk this up as anything more than bad luck.

Edited by iknowcool
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1 hour ago, iknowcool said:

How does a McCaffrey shoulder injury that might make him miss one game prove anything... do you make the same assertion when other players at other positions get injured?  Top tight ends seem to always get hurt or banged up, but nobody says anything bad about the George Kittle contract. 

Given the career trajectory of other elite RBs on par with McCaffrey, there is no reason to expect him to decline sharply before the end of his contract, something I have went back and checked before (IIRC, RBs with numbers comparable to McCaffrey's in his first 3 years actually showed a tendency to get even better statistically between 24-27 or 28, forget which one... I'd have to go back and find the thread).  Sure, it's possible.  Anything is possible.  But he'll likely still be a great player until he's 28ish - and by the time he's 30, he will be a UFA.

Not all RBs are the same.  Yes, there a lot of players who play RB who don't deserve long-term contracts.  That does not = "RBs don't deserve long-term contracts."  Context with the player is important.  Not to mention, it ain't even like this contract is stopping the Panthers from doing anything else.  All we have is dead money and short-term contracts outside of McCaffrey and Thompson (who we will almost certainly release after 2021 anyway).  Us paying McCaffrey changed nothing for us.  And when he's played for us this year, he's been our best offensive player by a long-shot.  He'll be fine.  We're literally talking about a minor shoulder injury and an ankle sprain.  Could have happened to anyone.  There is no reason to chalk this up as anything more than bad luck.

You want to talk about trajectory?

Let's talk about RBs that get 250 carries in a season. 

In 2015: 5 RBs:

Frank Gore: Got 2 more years in Indy, producing sub 4.0 yards per carry seasons before being platooned.

Devonta Freeman: Got 2 more good years out of him before he broke down.

Latavius Murray: Got 2 replacement level years out of him before he became a #2 RB

Doug Martin: Immediately broke down

Adrian Peterson: Has never looked the same.

In 2016: 11 RBs:

Jordan Howard: Got 2 more years of replacement level play and then broke down.

Melvin Gordan: Has played more than 12 games in a year once since then and produced 3.9 YPC that year.

Jay Ajayi: Immediately broke down

Leveon Bell: One great year. Sat out a year. Has looked awful since

Frank Gore: Discussed in 2015

Lamar Miller: One bad year. One good year. One torn ACL. Cut by the Patriots and sitting on the Bears Practice Squad

Todd Gurley: Two more good years. One bad year. Traded to the Falcons.

Demarco Murray: One bad year. One good year. One bad year. Out of the League

David Johnson: Been broken down for 3 years. Seems to be having a replacement level season in 2020.

LeGarrette Blound: One good years as a #2 back.  One terrible year as a #2 back. Out of the league.

Ezekiel Elliott: Three good years and looking lousy this year. 

In 2017: 8 RBs:

Frank Gore: Discussed in 2015

Leonard Fournette: Hurt the first year. Played well the second year. Traded to the Bucs where he isn't starting

Kareem Hunt: Cut for the DV incident the first year. Suspended the second year. Playing well in a platoon his third year.

Jordan Howard: Discussed in 2016

Todd Gurley: Discussed in 2016

Melvin Gordon: Discussed in 2016

Shady McCoy: One more miserable year in Buffalo. Traded to the Chiefs where he was in and out of the lineup. Barely playing for the Bucs

Leveon Bell: Discussed in 2016.

In 2018: 6 RBs

Jordan Howard: Discussed in 2016

Adrian Peterson: Discussed in 2015

Todd Gurley: Discussed in 2016

David Johnson: Discussed in 2016.

Saquon Barkley: Good year in 2019 but missed 3 games. Played 3 games in 2020 before tearing his ACL

Ezekiel Elliott: Discussed in 2016

In 2019: 8 RBs

Dalvin Cook: Great year in 2020

Joe Mixon: Out 3 games, 3.6 YPC when playing

Chris Carson (got hurt before the 2019 playoff game): Missed 3 games. Playing very well when healthy

Christian McCaffrey: Missed 7 games so far. 3.8 YPC when playing.

Nick Chubb: Only played 4 games. Playing well when he's been in.

Derrick Henry: Been great this year

Ezekiel Elliott: Discussed in 2016.

+++

RBs don't last when asked to carry that heavy a load. 

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The fact that your (already small) sample size includes Gore and Peterson’s 2015 seasons, when Gore was 32 and Peterson was 30, tells me all I need to know.  

Once again... use context. You can not possibly think that’s comparable to McCaffrey.  Hence why I used comparable age and stats when determining trajectory.  Not by trying to draw a comparison between him and Jay Ajayi or old as hell Gore.  

I also want to point out that in your own post looking to prove that RBs (even high level ones) don’t last long, you listed the aforementioned Gore and Peterson getting touches at 32 and 30 respectively.  Just saying.  

Furthermore, I don’t think it makes sense to look at just carries in today’s league.  We could easily cut back on his carries and he’d still be a great player. He had 326 touches in 2018, almost 100 less than he had in 2019, and still had nearly 2000 YFS.  Again, you can’t simply compare him to a pure runner like Jordan Howard, especially when he’s 10x the athlete. They are likely not going to follow the same trajectory for obvious reasons.

Lastly, it seems weird that you listed “playing well” for guys like Chubb and Carson but for CMC, I guess the implication he isn’t playing well?  Have you seen him this year?  The run blocking has been below average. However, he’s still averaged over 100 YFS a game and 2 TDs a game. Dude has been great this year. LIS, it seems you are overreacting hard to a minor shoulder injury and an ankle sprain.

Edited by iknowcool

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17 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

I can respond to the rest of that later, but the fact that your (already small) sample size includes Gore and Peterson’s 2015 seasons, when Gore was 32 and Peterson was 30, tells me all I need to know.  

Once again... use context. You can not possibly think that’s comparable to McCaffrey.  Hence why I used comparable age and stats when determining trajectory.  Not by trying to draw a comparison between him and Jay Ajayi or old as hell Gore.  

I also want to point out that in your own post looking to prove that RBs (even high level ones) don’t last long, you listed the aforementioned Gore and Peterson getting touches at 32 and 30 respectively.  Just saying.  

Furthermore, I don’t think it makes sense to look at just carries in today’s league.  We could easily cut back on his carries and he’d still be a great player. He had 326 touches in 2018, almost 100 less than he had in 2019, and still had nearly 2000 YFS.  Again, you can’t simply compare him to a pure runner like Jordan Howard, especially when he’s 10x the athlete. They are likely not going to follow the same trajectory for obvious reasons.

Why do you think he moves the needle that much? You're 0-3 with him playing this year and 3-3 without him playing this year. You were 5-11 last year with him playing all 16 games. 

It isn't that McCaffrey is a bad player, it's that the method with which he's fed is very inefficient for the team. If you're going to target somebody 142 times, they need to do better than 7.1 yards/target. That's really mediocre production per target. The issue is that McCaffrey touched the ball 431 times last year between targets, throws, and runs. That's QB volume of touches producing only 2395 yards. That's terrible. That's 5.6 yards per touch. There were 588 non-McCaffrey plays last year, they went for 3566 yards, good for 6.1 yards per "touch". Just as a comparison, Aaron Jones had 5.1 yards per touch last year. But he only took up 304 touches. That left the rest of the Packers offense with 670 touches and 4254 yards, or 6.4 yards per "touch". And that isn't to say that the non-McCaffrey plays were efficient because they're not, but the offense had it's head up its *** if it ever thought that 400 touches for a RB was an efficient method of offense. RBs by their nature are not efficient. They should be kept more to the back. The production that he's at right now where he's getting about 6 targets per game is a much healthier and sustainable approach to this offense. 

And you would be correct to make the counter argument that that's coaching, but if he isn't going to get that volume of touches, what is his contract worth? And the argument that the Panthers don't have any other contracts needing to be paid doesn't make the signing better. 

  +++

 

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Always thought the "don't pay RB's" argument was silly. McCaffrey will be fine and offers a skillset few in the NFL can replicate. Would be silly not to pay a young RB of his quality.

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Just now, tyler735 said:

Always thought the "don't pay RB's" argument was silly. McCaffrey will be fine and offers a skillset few in the NFL can replicate. Would be silly not to pay a young RB of his quality.

There are a few exceptions...but they are very few and far between and they have to be "special". Its easier for me to say because Shanny is my head coach, but I did largely feel that way before, it's just even more obvious now lol

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Just now, Forge said:

There are a few exceptions...but they are very few and far between and they have to be "special". Its easier for me to say because Shanny is my head coach, but I did largely feel that way before, it's just even more obvious now lol

Guys like McCaffrey and Kamara need to be paid. They offer so much more than your traditional workhorse RB. Beyond the numbers these types of players can completely change opposing teams gameplans with their versatility. If I'm not mistaken (too lazy to look this up) if I recall from when Kamara signed contract which was among the higher RB contracts, Cooper Kupp signed a very similar contract around the same time. There's no way someone could convince me a Cooper Kupp level player is anywhere near as valuable as a Kamara or McCaffrey level player. I'm all for paying these guys.

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Are yall saying that he is "injury prone" or that he simply carries too much of the load when healthy and an injury is bound to happen? 

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