2021 Free Agency

[Jeremy408]

27 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

Unless someone is seeking name value picks, it comes down purely to availability and who may or may not be there with pur next pick. 

For all anyone knows, Grant could be Jacksonville's 1st overall pick (he won't be, but you get the picture). Most people have him available mid-late 2nd round. Hence, the majority opinion is he's a 2nd rounder. 

If he's as good as advertised in hindsight, he will obviously be worth a 1st. But for the time being, he's a 2nd rounder. So taking him at 17 means we are sure to give up on someone between 18 amd 48. While Grant is 100% a top 75 player in the draft, arguably a top 50 even, he's not considered a slam dunk top 50 guy. Thus, he "should" be available around the time we pick in the 2nd. 

Now, "should" is never a guarantee. For all we know, Philadelphia had eyes on Josh Jacobs who "should" have been available in the 2nd round. So it's not a perfect science by any means. 

On the flip side, taking him at 17 all but guarantees we aren't getting a, let's say top 45, player to factor in some surprises and reaches with our 2nd. 

Lets look at an example. We know we need a FS and a RT and Moehrig is off the board. Lo and behold, Darrisaw, Vera-Tucker, and Cosmi are all available at 17. They almost certainly won't be at 48. So if we took Grant early, our target for RT could be ranked well outside of the consensus top 50 prospects, leading to a reach. 

Instead of grabbing 2 top 50 prospects and filling needs with both, we have a top 50 taken in the top 25 and, for illustrations sake, the #76 ranked prospect. Not as pretty, particularly when we have back to back picks in the 3rd. Or, even if we don't take a reach in the 2nd, we're likely getting a better player but not addressing a clear need until we pick again in the 3rd. 

In short, it's not necessarily who you get, but who you willingly give up on getting going forward. 

But that’s my thing: How do we know a player is a consensus second rounder? Because the mock draft say so? Draft websites? Like where are we getting the information that he’s a second rounder?(I genuinely want to know not trying to talk trash or anything)
 

I was wondering more about whether or not there are any limitations or flaws to his game that I may be missing. Because the guy does a lot of things well and I don’t really see anything that he doesn’t do well(disclaimer: I’m not saying he’s a top 10 pick or some perfect prospect)

[JarrodR86]

This lack of activity in regards to rounding out roster with FS, outside/slot corner and RT is frustrating.. would have figured guys like Boston, Sherman and Heyward would have been near locks due to Bradley connection, Sherman/Gruden “alpha” interview, etc.. Between Mariota restructure, trimming the fat with a cut like Richard and Heath, seems like more than enough for a Sherman/Boston combo or whoever they see fit.. 

Regarding RT, they must feel Ok with Parker competing with a 1st/2nd round RT.. I thought Parker for once didn’t look like an absolute turnstile last year but would still prefer RT to be addressed in the top 2 rounds because I don’t trust him on an every down, 16 game basis but maybe it all clicks for him this coming season. 

[Humble_Beast]

wish we took a look at Kazee at FS. FS Market is thinning, only free agents who would be a clear upgrade to Heath would be:

• Malik Hooker- probably not healthy which is why he isn't signed
• Tre Boston
• Tashaun Gipson
• Duron Harmon
• Xavier Woods - actually would be a toss up to who's better. 

I think Richard Sherman wants to stay at CB.

[ronjon1990]

3 hours ago, Jeremy408 said:

But that’s my thing: How do we know a player is a consensus second rounder? Because the mock draft say so? Draft websites? Like where are we getting the information that he’s a second rounder?(I genuinely want to know not trying to talk trash or anything)
 

I was wondering more about whether or not there are any limitations or flaws to his game that I may be missing. Because the guy does a lot of things well and I don’t really see anything that he doesn’t do well(disclaimer: I’m not saying he’s a top 10 pick or some perfect prospect)

It's the unanswerable question really. I don't say that to be facetious. At some point, the consensus had Ryan Leaf and Robert Griffin as Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck near equals. 

People love to tout buzzwords like "upside" and "instincts" as a way of imposing subjective opinions that can't be disproven because they rely so heavily on subjective factors. 

Personally, I break down the draft by top X number (ie: top 10, top 50, top 100, etc.). Why? Because 32 is an insanely arbitrary number based solely on the number of teams in the league. When there were 30 teams, there were only 30 first rounders, and needs can play a big part in who goes where. 

So as to why Grant is a 2nd rounder: media and the general draft community seem.to have settled that he's one of the best 60 or so players in the draft. 

Guys ranked above him are simply projected to potentially be better at their position than he is (in most cases) or just don't fill the right needs (ie: why kiickers rarely get drafted high). 

Given the subjective nature of the draft, it's the closest thing you'll get as to why someone is projected where they're projected. Individual position plays a part (and FS just isn't considered a high impact one), where a guy played (top 5 program or FCS?), individual workouts, all that can play a part.

But there's no proven science to any of it. More like counting at a blackjack table than anything. There's a method, it can work, but it's absolutely still a gamble no matter what anyone says.

Edited March 26, 2021 by ronjon1990

[drfrey13]

3 hours ago, Jeremy408 said:

Wow that sucks. It would’ve been the best defensice tackle on the market

Might be our last shot to sign a good DT before the draft.

[Jeremy408]

12 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

It's the unanswerable question really. I don't say that to be facetious. At some point, the consensus had Ryan Leaf and Robert Griffin as Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck near equals. 

People love to tout buzzwords like "upside" and "instincts" as a way of imposing subjective opinions that can't be disproven because they rely so heavily on subjective factors. 

Personally, I break down the draft by top X number (ie: top 10, top 50, top 100, etc.). Why? Because 32 is an insanely arbitrary number based solely on the number of teams in the league. When there were 30 teams, there were only 30 first rounders, and needs can play a big part in who goes where. 

So as to why Grant is a 2nd rounder: media and the general draft community seem.to have settled that he's one of the best 60 or so players in the draft. 

Guys ranked above him are simply projected to potentially be better at their position than he is (in most cases) or just don't fill the right needs (ie: why kiickers rarely get drafted high). 

Given the subjective nature of the draft, it's the closest thing you'll get as to why someone is projected where they're projected. Individual position plays a part (and FS just isn't considered a high impact one), where a guy played (top 5 program or FCS?), individual workouts, all that can play a part.

But there's no proven science to any of it. More like counting at a blackjack table than anything. There's a method, it can work, but it's absolutely still a gamble no matter what anyone says.

No I definitely feel that! That’s kind of how I felt really. 
 

Like if Grant is actually a good player any checks all the boxes for our scheme and you don’t think he’s going to be there in the second round my whole thing is who cares about being “politically correct” according to the “rankings” at that point. You know what I mean?
 

Now if he goes out there and runs 4.5 or 4.6 we have to look at that and say maybe there’s higher value players then he’s a second round pick. But if the guy runs 4.4 we’ve got to consider the guy in the first round. That’s my take. 

[jimkelly02]

I’m not sure if we used the “Veteran Salary Cap Benefit” on one of our own free agents yet ......

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28901832/nfl-cba-approved-players-get-new-deal-how-expanded-playoffs-schedule-work

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/chiefs-bring-back-receiver-demarcus-robinson-on-one-year-deal-per-report/

https://frontofficenfl.com/2020/05/25/2020-nfl-cba-explained-veteran-salary-benefit/

 

But we should have used this on Zay Jones.... I’d be pissed to find out we didn’t.  

[jpaulthe1st]

1 hour ago, Humble_Beast said:

wish we took a look at Kazee at FS. FS Market is thinning, only free agents who would be a clear upgrade to Heath would be:

• Malik Hooker- probably not healthy which is why he isn't signed
• Tre Boston
• Tashaun Gipson
• Duron Harmon
• Xavier Woods - actually would be a toss up to who's better. 

I think Richard Sherman wants to stay at CB.

Earl Thomas as well 

[ronjon1990]

49 minutes ago, Jeremy408 said:

No I definitely feel that! That’s kind of how I felt really. 
 

Like if Grant is actually a good player any checks all the boxes for our scheme and you don’t think he’s going to be there in the second round my whole thing is who cares about being “politically correct” according to the “rankings” at that point. You know what I mean?
 

Now if he goes out there and runs 4.5 or 4.6 we have to look at that and say maybe there’s higher value players then he’s a second round pick. But if the guy runs 4.4 we’ve got to consider the guy in the first round. That’s my take. 

In regards to Grant and the Raiders, I'd likely prefer to gamble on him being there round 2. I wouldn't even be too upset if we packaged that extra 3rd to move up a bit to nab him. 

In the 1st though, I fall in the camp of "there's going to be other guys worth taking who surely won't be there later". 

Frankly, the fact we haven't signed someone yet tells me he fanbase is overstating the staff's desire to address the position. At the going rate, I'd have to say taking Grant (and even Moehrig) would be a panic driven reach because they failed to address it at all in FA. 

I wouldn't hate it, per se, but it would give me even more hesitation to support Gruden and Mayock going forward. In a lot of ways, it would be reminiscent of the Arnette pick- that is, we take him out of panic because nobody else is considered "available". I hated that pick, not because I necessarily hated Arnette as a prospect, but because of who we gave up a shot at. 2020 was tricky since we didn't have a 2nd round pick, and MAYBE we couldn't find a trade partner (I highly doubt that). We've got ample ammo this year, with potential trade bait to spare, though. 

If it came down to Grant as the only player in a position of need on the board, I'd much rather try and move back a bit. If all other options are exhausted, sure, grab him and roll with it. Short of that, I think 17 has more value. Again, if he pans out, he will have been worth a 1st. For now though, that isn't the game. The game is getting the most out of what we have and I honestly believe we can make moves with 17 that potentially benefit us more than using it on Grant. And I say that at someone who plans on pounding the table for him in the 2nd. Matter of taste, I suppose (also, I want to trade back with our 1st round pick every single year anyway. I see the 1st round as the ultimate sucker's bet. Give me 2 or 3 extra 2nds and 3rds or more every single year and I'll be forever happy. I have to be absolutely blown away with a guy to ever see a 1st as worth it, given what a 1st round pick is apparently worth to others. The way I see it, I can build a hell of a team with nothing but guys from rounds 2 and 3 from the last 4 years, but I doubt I can find someone as good at every position by using just 1st rounders over the same timespan- both for the obvious reason of there being fewer to choose from [32/yr instead of 96] as well as quality [ie: give me Chase Claypool and Laviska Shenault at WR over virtually any 1st round WRs since 2017]. I like numbers lol.)

[Jeremy408]

25 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

In regards to Grant and the Raiders, I'd likely prefer to gamble on him being there round 2. I wouldn't even be too upset if we packaged that extra 3rd to move up a bit to nab him. 

In the 1st though, I fall in the camp of "there's going to be other guys worth taking who surely won't be there later". 

Frankly, the fact we haven't signed someone yet tells me he fanbase is overstating the staff's desire to address the position. At the going rate, I'd have to say taking Grant (and even Moehrig) would be a panic driven reach because they failed to address it at all in FA. 

I wouldn't hate it, per se, but it would give me even more hesitation to support Gruden and Mayock going forward. In a lot of ways, it would be reminiscent of the Arnette pick- that is, we take him out of panic because nobody else is considered "available". I hated that pick, not because I necessarily hated Arnette as a prospect, but because of who we gave up a shot at. 2020 was tricky since we didn't have a 2nd round pick, and MAYBE we couldn't find a trade partner (I highly doubt that). We've got ample ammo this year, with potential trade bait to spare, though. 

If it came down to Grant as the only player in a position of need on the board, I'd much rather try and move back a bit. If all other options are exhausted, sure, grab him and roll with it. Short of that, I think 17 has more value. Again, if he pans out, he will have been worth a 1st. For now though, that isn't the game. The game is getting the most out of what we have and I honestly believe we can make moves with 17 that potentially benefit us more than using it on Grant. And I say that at someone who plans on pounding the table for him in the 2nd. Matter of taste, I suppose (also, I want to trade back with our 1st round pick every single year anyway. I see the 1st round as the ultimate sucker's bet. Give me 2 or 3 extra 2nds and 3rds or more every single year and I'll be forever happy. I have to be absolutely blown away with a guy to ever see a 1st as worth it, given what a 1st round pick is apparently worth to others. The way I see it, I can build a hell of a team with nothing but guys from rounds 2 and 3 from the last 4 years, but I doubt I can find someone as good at every position by using just 1st rounders over the same timespan- both for the obvious reason of there being fewer to choose from [32/yr instead of 96] as well as quality [ie: give me Chase Claypool and Laviska Shenault at WR over virtually any 1st round WRs since 2017]. I like numbers lol.)

I feel that. My thing is if he test well I don’t mind him at 17 based on what I’ve seen.

But I do understand the philosophy of getting someone who do you think won’t be available later. The only thing though is how are we or more importantly they supposed to know that?

I wouldn’t call it panic driven because they could easily have Malik hooker tree Boston or ha ha Clinton Dix right now if they want to do. For them to take a player like Grant that high they would have to have thought that he was the best option.

I think I’ve been pretty vocal about how in the draft How after Jeffrey Okudah AJ Terrell and Henderson there wasn’t like a clear CB #4 so it came down to what scheme fit was best. If you were looking for someone who performed well in single coverage particularly press coverage Arnette was your guy.  But again if you really like him and you didn’t think he was going to be there if you trade it down because at that .3 corners went in the top 15 I think you have to pull the trigger. That’s my reasoning why I don’t feel like it was a panic like most people think(but of course time will tell). I obviously don’t like his measurable’s but I did like his college tape.

 

Overall when it comes to grant or really any player when it comes to the draft is I’m all about tape does the guy fit what we need and does he have a really good day that I personally can say that guy is a good player. Because like what we agree on all of the other stuff is theoretical. Like I remember saying to myself when AJ Brown was at Ole Miss I didn’t understand why people were saying he wasn’t a first round pick. He could pretty much do everything he could play inside outside you couldn’t press him he ran 4.4 and I thought he had the best hands in the draft from what I had seen on film but somehow he went in the second round. If he got drafted in the top 12 it wouldn’t have changed the fact that he turned out to be the best receiver in the draft. But again that’s my philosophy. 

[oakdb36]

The rumor i was talking about earlier.

[jimkelly02]

2 hours ago, oakdb36 said:

The rumor i was talking about earlier.

I’d love to get Brian Poole.  He’s been a really good sCB for several years but is still very young.

Poole’s got some bulk (5’10 213) as he was a S at Florida.  That helps him be a better run defender then most sCBs.  Plus he’s only 28 so he’s someone you could potentially have for multiple years.  

[Roninho]

9 hours ago, Humble_Beast said:

wish we took a look at Kazee at FS. FS Market is thinning, only free agents who would be a clear upgrade to Heath would be:

• Malik Hooker- probably not healthy which is why he isn't signed
• Tre Boston
• Tashaun Gipson
• Duron Harmon
• Xavier Woods - actually would be a toss up to who's better. 

I think Richard Sherman wants to stay at CB.

We talk alot about FA market & draft, but i think we should not be surprised to see us make a trade or 2 for a veteran guys as well. 

Gruden likes vets and we've got additional picks after trading Hudson and Jackson. 

[big_palooka]

13 hours ago, Jeremy408 said:

But that’s my thing: How do we know a player is a consensus second rounder? Because the mock draft say so? Draft websites? Like where are we getting the information that he’s a second rounder?(I genuinely want to know not trying to talk trash or anything)
 

I was wondering more about whether or not there are any limitations or flaws to his game that I may be missing. Because the guy does a lot of things well and I don’t really see anything that he doesn’t do well(disclaimer: I’m not saying he’s a top 10 pick or some perfect prospect)

99% of the time, value and draft position, etc. talked about in places like this are echoing the media. 

It's actually hilarious when you think about it. Fans have such strong opinions on prospects, but they are rarely their own. Simply parroting their favorite draft gurus. Maybe you've watched a couple games. You've definitely watched the youtube highlights... but to pretend to watch "film" is hilarious. Nobody in here is laboring over hours of boring all 22 film to form any opinions on prospects.

[OnlyGlove]

10 hours ago, Humble_Beast said:

wish we took a look at Kazee at FS. FS Market is thinning, only free agents who would be a clear upgrade to Heath would be:

• Malik Hooker- probably not healthy which is why he isn't signed
• Tre Boston
• Tashaun Gipson
• Duron Harmon
• Xavier Woods - actually would be a toss up to who's better. 

I think Richard Sherman wants to stay at CB.

 

Haha Clinton Dix  still a free agent?

 

Wonder if we go back in for him and AJ Bouye after they came in for talks.  Maybe we didn't like what we saw, maybe they just wanted too much money or maybe we wanted to wait. 

 

Getting Haha Clinton-Dix, AJ Bouye and Willie Snead IV for me would be a decent end to FA

Edited March 26, 2021 by OnlyGlove