Predict the QB carousel

[Turnobili]

18 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I don't see it.

LV's OL is perennially a top 10 unit.   They have a top 10 run game.   It's the perfect setup to have a great QB season year in and year out - and Carr just frankly plays like a serviceable QB when the year's all said and done.    It's ironic that ppl question Matt Stafford - he's literally had nothing like the OL / run game support that Carr's been given...annually.

Someone can pay it, but honestly I think that's a pathway to fool's gold more than Stafford, or even Cousins (although Carr being about 15M cheaper for 2021-2 does help his case in that comp).

Before I get a ton of Raider fan heat - as a reference, I don't think Lock gets much value either, other than being so cheap with his rookie level deal, either.    

- OL has not been as good as it was circa 2016. PFF had them as the #24 offensive line in the league this past season, for what that's worth to you (#15 in 2019, #28 in 2018)

- the Raiders had the #14 run game in the NFL this year (#19 in ypc). On the other hand, they were the #9 passing team (Carr ranked #5 in ypa)

you can keep repeating the "top 10 OL, top 10 run game" line over and over again, but its not borne out in reality

Edited February 3, 2021 by Turnobili

[Broncofan]

3 minutes ago, Turnobili said:

- OL has not been as good as it was circa 2016. PFF had them as the #24 offensive line in the league this past season, for what that's worth to you.

- the Raiders had the #14 run game in the NFL this year (#19 in ypc). On the other hand, they were the #9 passing team (Carr ranked #5 in ypa)

By DVOA, LV's OL was #10 in pass blocking this year.  The Raiders run game has been down since 2017, though, fair point.  But overall, since Carr's been drafted, they've been a top 6 OL 4 of the 6 years (not just top 10), and only 1x were they below-average (2018).    And Carr's lack of run support in 2019-20 pales in comparison to Stafford's experience (and was in fact top 8 regularly before 2018 started - 2018 was awful all the way around, though).    

[Turnobili]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

By DVOA, LV's OL was #10 in pass blocking this year.  The Raiders run game has been down since 2017, though, fair point.  But overall, since Carr's been drafted, they've been a top 6 OL 4 of the 6 years (not just top 10), and only 1x were they below-average (2018).    And Carr's lack of run support in 2019-20 pales in comparison to Stafford's experience (and was in fact top 8 regularly before 2018 started - 2018 was awful all the way around, though).    

but we're not talking about "overall since carr has been drafting"... we're not talking about 2014/2015/2016 carr. we're looking at the player he is now. you aren't trading for his whole career going back to his rookie season, just what you can expect going forward. looking back 5-6 years ago doesnt make a lot of sense.

Edited February 3, 2021 by Turnobili

[Broncofan]

5 minutes ago, Turnobili said:

but we're not talking about "overall since carr has been drafting"... we're not talking about 2014/2015/2016 carr. we're looking at the player he is now. you aren't trading for his whole career going back to his rookie season, just what you can expect going forward. looking back 5-6 years ago doesnt make a lot of sense.

The flip side being that you're trading for a guy off a career year, with a 6-year baseline before, and being kind, calling it a 4-year baseline of established vet play (throw out 2014-15 if it tilts too much towards the rookie year).    That's always the conundrum. 

The metrics don't say his other years were flukes, nor does the eye test.   You're selling that the "light's come on this year".   Maybe it has, maybe it hasn't.  But it's not like it's an established trend.   Hence the skepticism.  I mean, the very fact your fellow fans even on this thread are hoping for a trade speaks volumes here.

[SkippyX]

NOTE: This is just rumor and nothing is substantiated.

There are some possible leaked texts from Andrew Luck's wife about meeting with Jimmy (Irsay) and how much he misses the game.

He's had 2 years to get his body right and maybe he is feeling good again.

 

This is clearly just wild speculation for now but that would be one heck of a curveball in the QB carousel.

[Broncofan]

34 minutes ago, SkippyX said:

NOTE: This is just rumor and nothing is substantiated.

There are some possible leaked texts from Andrew Luck's wife about meeting with Jimmy (Irsay) and how much he misses the game.

He's had 2 years to get his body right and maybe he is feeling good again.

 

This is clearly just wild speculation for now but that would be one heck of a curveball in the QB carousel.

As enticing as it sounds, both Colts players and the more-connected sources say it's fake news.

 

 

[Turnobili]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

The flip side being that you're trading for a guy off a career year, with a 6-year baseline before, and being kind, calling it a 4-year baseline of established vet play (throw out 2014-15 if it tilts too much towards the rookie year).    That's always the conundrum. 

The metrics don't say his other years were flukes, nor does the eye test.   You're selling that the "light's come on this year".   Maybe it has, maybe it hasn't.  But it's not like it's an established trend.   Hence the skepticism.  I mean, the very fact your fellow fans even on this thread are hoping for a trade speaks volumes here.

the last 2 seasons were the 2 highest passer ratings of his career. id say 2017 and 2018 were legitimately bad years. 2019 was ok, 2020 was good. the trajectory is there.

[jofos]

Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger + Mitchell Trubisky

Ravens: Lamar Jackson

Browns: Baker Mayfield

Bengals: Joe Burrow + Fitzmagic 

 

Bills: Josh Allen

Dolphins: Deshaun Watson

Patriots: Jarrett Stidham

Jets: Zach Wilson

 

Titans: Ryan Tannehill

Colts: Jacoby Brissett + Mac Jones

Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence
 

Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes

Raiders: Derek Carr

Chargers: Justin Herbert

Broncos: Drew Lock + Kyle Trask

 

Packers: Jordan Love

Bears: Nick Foles + Tua Tagovailoa 

Vikings: Kirk Cousins 

Lions:  Jared Goff

 

WFT: Aaron Rodgers

Cowboys: Dak Prescott

Giants: Daniel Jones

Eagles: Carson Wentz

 

Saints: Jameis Winston

Buccaneers: Tom Brady

Falcons: Matt Ryan

Panthers: Teddy Bridgewater

 

Seahawks: Russell Wilson

Rams: Matthew Stafford 

Cardinals: Kyler Murray

49ers: Jimmy Garoppolo + Trey Lance

[MikeT14]

11 hours ago, jofos said:

WFT: Aaron Rodgers

👀 - @aceinthehouse multi confirmed haha

[PFM18]

Sounds like this isn't over yet.

Imagine they'll be looking at Goff's value and consider that a baseline. 

[Forge]

8 minutes ago, PFM18 said:

Sounds like this isn't over yet.

Imagine they'll be looking at Goff's value and consider that a baseline. 

I don't know how you quantify Goff's value in that trade, tbh. 

Schefty thinks they will want a first. I think that they get a mid / late  round pick + conditional the following year that can be pretty high. 

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, Forge said:

I don't know how you quantify Goff's value in that trade, tbh. 

Schefty thinks they will want a first. I think that they get a mid / late  round pick + conditional the following year that can be pretty high. 

I mean, they can ask....don't see a 1st, frankly even a Day 2 pick would be a win this offeason IMO.    I get why PHI might hope to rehabilitate his value, but that's after he actually shows his 2020 issues have gone away.

Edited February 4, 2021 by Broncofan

[Forge]

Just now, Broncofan said:

I mean, they can ask....don't see a 1st, frankly even a Day 2 pick would be a win IMO.

I think something like a 4th / 5th this year and then a conditional pick the following year which is likely a day two pick (easy to hit escalator to round 2, maybe a base round 3 with the upside to hit one...say on a condition that they make it to a championship game or super bowl or something) would be a good deal for both sides. 

[PFM18]

6 minutes ago, Forge said:

I don't know how you quantify Goff's value in that trade, tbh. 

Schefty thinks they will want a first. I think that they get a mid / late  round pick + conditional the following year that can be pretty high. 

That's fair. It was mostly about offloading the contract.

Howie could easily be trying to initiate a bidding war and drive the price up. Stafford's already gone. Carr is apparently available so why not have the news released that they're taking calls on Wentz. Probably get a few more now. 

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, PFM18 said:

That's fair. It was mostly about offloading the contract.

Howie could easily be trying to initiate a bidding war and drive the price up. Stafford's already gone. Carr is apparently available so why not have the news released that they're taking calls on Wentz. Probably get a few more now. 

Cousins, Carr, JimmyG, Wentz - all are being dangled by teams looking to price-check.   If teams can find a buyer willing to pay a premium - sure, they'll listen.   But that availability also likely drives the market down.    Undoubtedly, this is a measure to try and leverage the most interested teams.    That's probably only going to work if the serious demand outstrips the supply.   

Overall demand definitely outstrips supply - but premium demand (willingness to pay premium prices) - for everyone outside Watson, that's probably a different story altogether.  It's probably more 1 interested team, maybe 2 (SF & Cousins, IND & Wentz or Carr, etc.)...