BDL 2017 week 6: Louisiana Jazz @ Oklahoma City Rogues

[DingoLadd]

BDL 2017 Week 6: 

Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

For people who have been following along and wish to vote: please join the conversation and maybe give a reason you voted as you did. This will alleviate any suspicions of unusual voting and will promote discussion.

Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (GTD) are game-time decisions.

 

[DingoLadd]

Louisiana Lineup:

Offense:

QB: Tom Brady
RB: Ezekiel Elliott
WR: Michael Thomas
WR: Doug Baldwin
TE: Zach Ertz
TE: Eric Ebron
LT: Laremy Tunsil
LG: Josh Sitton
C: Travis Frederick
RG: Trai Turner
RT: Menelik Watson

RB2: Bilal Powell
RB3: James White
WR3: Jordy Nelson
WR4: Emmanuel Sanders
WR5: Torrey Smith
TE3: Dion Sims
OL6: Shawn Lauvao
OL7: Joe Barksdale

Defense:

Edge: Cameron Wake
DE: Jurrell Casey
NT: Damon Harrison
DE: Chris Jones
Edge: Brian Orakpo
LB: Jamie Collins Sr
LB: Lawrence Timmons
CB: Chris Harris Jr
CB: Logan Ryan
SS: Reshad Jones
FS: Eric Weddle


DT3: Tyrone Crawford
DE3: Jabaal Sheard
DE4: Shaq Lawson
LB3: Todd Davis
LB4: Lorenzo Alexander
CB3: Vontae Davis
CB4: Orlando Scandrick
DB: Reggie Nelson

 

Oklahoma City Rogues

 

QB: Cam Newton
RB: LeGarrette Blount
WR: Adam Thielen
WR: Allen Hurns
WR: Nelson Agholor
TE: Jordan Reed
LT: David Bakhtiari (Q)
LG: Richie Incognito
C: T.J. Lang (Q)
RG: Jack Conklin
RT: Morgan Moses

 

RB: Joe Mixon
RB: Alex Collins
FB: James Develin
WR: Jeremy Maclin (Q)
WR: Mike Wallace
TE: Jared Cook
T: Daryl Williams
T: Ereck Flowers

 

 

ROLB: Ryan Kerrigan
DT: Cameron Heyward
DT: Eddie Goldman
LOLB: Von Miller
ILB: Eric Kendricks
ILB: Kendell Beckwith
LCB: Patrick Peterson (Q)
RCB: Morris Claiborne
SCB: Brent Grimes
FS: Malik Hooker
SS: Jordan Poyer

 

OLB: Connor Barwin
NT: Star Lotulelei
DL: Carl Davis (Q)
DL: Montravius Adams
LB: Darron Lee
CB: Trevor Williams
CB: Shaq Griffin
S: Andre Hal

 

 

[DingoLadd]

Louisiana Gameplan:

 

We’re coming off a blowout win and they’re coming off a blowout loss. We know the story, we know what this match means to OKC, we know it’s their superbowl. They’re putting absolutely everything into this match because a loss means season over for them and everyone’s writing them off. Thankfully we’ve had a couple of walkover victories after our huge win against Seoul which should leave us in good stead for this. A win here puts us at 3-0 in the division, gives us a 2.5 game lead in the division over Long Beach and ends a divisional rivals season. We’ll be up for this.

Offense:

The key to our offensive performance is establishing the run game. We know that OKC lacks the depth and quality across their defensive front to stop the run game on a consistent basis. The two TE set, with Barksdale & Sims alternating in on heavier sets will make life easier for Brady on later passing downs if the first down yardage is manageable, since he’ll be able to get the ball out quick and avoid Miller.

Miller we isolate as the major threat on the OKC defense. Keeping him off Brady is essential to ensuring sustained drives. The addition of James White even on short notice is a major boost because his familiarity with Brady and excellence as a blocker/3^rd down back makes him a good option to chip Miller or at least provide a last line of defence for Brady or a cheap dumpoff option.

Regrettably we’ve dropped Nelson to the bench since we don’t see the deep game being our focus. He will of course feature in the redzone. Instead we’ll look to target the middle of the field with the linebacking collective of OKC being viewed as a weakness, with none of them being established or good starters at this level. While Ertz has excelled, Ebron has struggled, admittedly against some good opposition and this should ease up – particularly in a matchup like this. This should also limit the effectiveness of Poyer and Hooker as a safety duo as both operate their best deeper.

Beyond this, Sanders, Thomas and Baldin will rotate as usual running a variety of routes across the field with each being perfectly capable of operating out of the slot or set wide. If OKC wants to go man intensive, then Brady will be looking for the RBs and TEs to get it out fast, if OKC wants to go zone heavy then I wish them luck at stopping Sanders & Baldwin from finding gaps in coverage when moving across field.


Defense:

After a couple of good weeks, Cam’s regressed back to his level earlier this season. This has made our job a lot easier and given us something which we can target.

Limiting Cam’s danger on the feet

Moving to a speedy duo with a lot of range at linebacker is no coincidence. Timmons and Collins will be able to track down RBs and TEs in the screen and short passing game, but importantly be able to limit Cam’s effectiveness when leaving the pocket. Our plan is to mimic what the Eagles did to cause Cam a lot of strife. Have the LBs contain, push the interior and seal the edge.

Collapsing the Pocket on Cam

In terms of our pass-rush, the focus will be for Wake and Orakpo to set the edge. We know that the makeshift interior that OKC will be trotting out won’t be able to contain the interior rush on a consistent basis. Thus, if our edge rushers are able to seal the outside, even if it means being redirected around the back of the pocket, Cam will have no choice but to step up into the face of our interior pressure collapsing the pocket. This will limit his ability to run outside the pocket and hurt us with his feet or be given clear lanes to move into an pass. Additionally, Wake/Orakpo should have success against the tackles despite their specific assignment and we’re not really sure how the sketchy interior 3 will hold up against Harrison who requires a double team, and two prolific rushers in Casey & Jones.

Indeed Cam’s success has largely been based on the effectiveness of his interior line. Norwell, Kalil and Turner were arguably the best interior trio during Cam’s MVP season. It’s no surprise Cam regressed badly in 2016 when Kalil got injured and Turner was moved to RT. So re-iterating our earlier point, our aim is to take away the ability to step up and at worst give up lateral movement which will force some off balance throws on the run regardless.

Heavy Man Coverage Scheme

We know that going Man heavy will give us a huge edge defensively. Why? Because Cam Newton isn’t particularly accurate and very scheme dependent. Evidence of this?
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-football-metrics-that-matter-qbs-against-man-schemes-or-zone

 

Yep, Newton has been extremely successful against zone coverage but struggled against man. The reason? Pressure him and he becomes inaccurate. The reason why this isn’t catastrophic in real life is because Newton’s misses tend to be throwing high. With large bodied receivers such as Olsen, Benjamin, Funchess and LaFell he’s worked with in the past, this is ok. However, the tallest receiver on OKC is 6’2 and that is either Allen Hurns or Jordan Reed. With Weddle patrolling deep, and Newton’s propensity for floaters off his back foot when the pocket collapses, there will be turnover opportunities.

By going man heavy, Newton either has to thread the needle against us in the face of pressure, throw the ball up and hope his receivers get it or hope his receivers get open. We don’t like the chances.

If OKC wants to go with a short-passing game attack to the backs, none of who are established pass catchers, we’re happy to go with that. For the majority of his career Cam has been a poor YAC QB because of his accuracy, which has limited the transition from receiver to runner in open space for his targets. Add in the fact we’ve got Jones, Collins and Timmons to cover sideline to sideline and we’re not too worried.

Reshad Jones should be able to deal with a banged up Jordan Reed. Chris Harris Jr on Adam Thielen is another positive matchup. Ryan/Davis should be able to take whoever trots out as the no.2 and no.3 wrs for OKC. Weddle will be the deep man in our cover 1.

Stopping the run game

Again, in a man heavy scheme we’ve committed numbers to the LOS. We know that there’s a running threat from Newton and the read-option could definitely be worked in, but with a makeshift offensive line this just isn’t feasible to run successfully. Look at the different Dallas has had from 2016 to 2017 – even though it’s only the two weakest members of the offensive line that have moved/left, it’s made the world of difference. With players out of position in the interior and either Flowers or a banged up Bakhtiari on the left, we feel our front 7 should be able to hold up well – particularly when Sheard comes in for Wake on run downs.

 

OKC Gameplan:

 

We are the ones that get the pleasure of facing the BDL juggernaut this week. Louisiana is an undoubtedly strong team, but they come into a dangerous match up here. First of all, divisional games, especially ones on the road, are historically tough. Second, we are a much better team than our record indicates. We are a perennial playoff team that just had some early setbacks with injuries. Now healthier, we can stand with Louisiana in a lot of areas. Finally, like any other team, Louisiana is not perfect, and in this game the small chinks in their armor are more exposed than ever.

 

Offense:

We believe Rome was on the right track last week with their run heavy offense, but they took it a little bit overboard. We will utilize a ball control offense that splits about 60/40 in favor of the run. Along with our run game, a good amount of our passes will be safe throws designed for an easy reception and possible run after catch. Our two main goals from this offense will be to limit the number of possessions Louisiana has and to wear down their defense for bigger plays later in the game.

LeGarrette Blount will get the start in this game and get the majority of the early down and between-the-tackles looks. He was underutilized a bit in Philadelphia to start the season, but he's proven he's a very consistent runner. Joe Mixon will rotate in as a third down back and Alex Collins will spell as necessary. Although we have a 3 WR set listed as our starting lineup, we will utilize some heavier sets with James Develin and/or Jared Cook to get a push against Louisiana's interior. Cam Newton's running abilities look to be back into top form and we will install a significant read-option package along with other designed QB runs to get him involved. Beyond the top three interior guys, Louisiana's defensive line is pretty thin against the run, and we are going to keep body punching them until they submit.

Jordan Reed has finally been taken off the injury report and needs to be taken seriously as a threat. We like him matching up against any of the Jazz linebackers and he will be the primary target as long as he's matched up with them. If Reshad Jones is put into man coverage with Reed, we will scale back our targeting of him a bit, but we won't completely avoid that match. If Jones matches up with Reed, then Weddle, who has been awful this year, will be left as the lone high safety. If this is the case, they will be vulnerable to run-after-catch and deep passes. We expect Chris Harris Jr. to follow Thielen around, so we will look mainly to our other receivers. We will try to get the ball to Allen Hurns, Nelson Agholor, Jeremy Maclin, or maybe Joe Mixon on crosses, drags, slants, etc. to give them opportunities to beat one defender and make a huge play. Also, with LeGarrette Blount often thought of as a signal to a run play, we will attempt to make plays in the deep passing game out of play action. If Harris Jr. doesn't shadow Thielen, then we will move Thielen around and try to exploit the corner replacing Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.

With many of our passes being quick, we think our slightly shuffled offensive line will hold up just fine. When we're passing deep out of play action, the running back will be available to pick up any pressure. We will also sometimes get Newton on the move and allow him to use his athleticism to extend the play or scramble.

 

 

Defense:

One of the bigger chinks in Louisiana's armor is their reliance on Ezekiel Elliot at running back. Although he is eligible this week in BDL, he will likely not have his only backup, Bilal Powell. With literally only one active running back, the effectiveness of Louisiana's running game will decline very quickly. Because of that, we expect and have prepared for a more pass heavy look from the Jazz. The Louisiana passing game is filled with stars, but it begins and ends with one man: Tom Brady. We are going to beat Brady by hitting him early and often, disguising our coverage looks, and pressing receivers to throw off timing.

The biggest weakness for Louisiana is their offensive line, specifically their offensive tackles. Laremy Turnsil isn't a starting caliber LT in BDL and Menelik Watson is waiver material. Like seriously, I just picked a guy up on waivers that is significantly better than Watson. Fortunately for us, our edge rushers are our biggest strength. Ryan Kerrigan will beat up on Turnsil all game long and Von Miller might win this game all on his own against Watson. With Cameron Heyward also having a very good year on the interior, we will be able to generate a strong and consistent pass rush with just our front four. A quarterback who is constantly facing down seven men in coverage with no time to throw the ball will struggle, no matter who it is.

We are going to run a variety of coverage schemes this week, but we are going to do our best to disguise them by running all of them out of the same shell. By always showing the same look, we will avoid tipping our hand and giving Brady an easy read. We don't expect to fool him completely of course, but we can make him think and keep him from getting into a comfortable rhythm. Our opening look will have both our safeties showing a 2-deep shell and our outside corners playing sides and pressing their respective receiver. Brent Grimes will be our slot corner and he will always line up over the slot receiver.

Our first coverage scheme out of this look will be a simple Cover-2 press man. In this look Eric Kendricks will cover Zach Ertz and Kendell Beckwith will be responsible for Elliot. A variation of this look will be Cover-2 zone. In the zone look, Brent Grimes will still line up over the slot receiver and drop straight back into a curl/flat. The linebacker opposite Grimes will then drop into the curl/flat zone on the opposite side of the field. Our outside corners will still press their receivers.

The second coverage scheme will be different variations of a Cover-1 look. The most common of these will be a Cover-1 robber where one of our deep safeties moves forward at the snap to play a middle zone. As a robber he will be expected to make a good read on the quarterback and make a play on the ball. One variation of this will be to have one of our linebackers play the robber role with one of our safeties picking up the linebacker's responsibility. Another variation of this will be to send the robber on a blitz instead. These blitzes will be some of the few blitzes we will use in this game. These coverage schemes can also help against the run as they allow a safety to be naturally moving towards the line of scrimmage after the snap.

We will also use a few variations of a Cover-3 scheme. The first of these will be a press-bail scheme with a buzz defender. In this scheme, the outside corners will contact their receiver at the snap and then drop into their deep third. Malik Hooker will play the Earl Thomas role in this scheme and protect against any failed presses. Brent Grimes and the linebacker opposite him will drop into a curl/flat zone while the other linebacker drops into a middle zone. Jordan Poyer will be the buzz defender allowing him to read the quarterback or make a play in the run game. The second variation will be a Cover-3 Cloud formation. In the Cover-3 Cloud, only one cornerback will bail into a deep third and the safeties will roll towards the opposite side and take the other thirds. Our bailing CB will be Patrick Peterson as this corner is most likely to end up in a 1 v 1 on a deep route. Morris Claiborne will play a shallow zone similar to a Cover-2 with either Grimes or a linebacker mirroring him on the other side. The other two remaining players will play a middle zone. The last variation will be a zone blitz. In the zone blitz scheme, our outside corners will press-bail, Hooker will play the deep third, and Poyer will play a middle zone. One of our inside linebackers will rush the passer while the opposite edge player drops into a curl/flat.

With a large variation of coverage schemes all stemming from the same initial positioning, we will make Brady think and hesitate while making his reads. Along with our consistent press coverage to disrupt the timing of his receivers' routes, we will keep Brady from developing any sort of rhythm. With all of this in combination as well as the talent advantage we have on the edges, we should have no problem having enough time to get to Brady.

In passing situations in the red zone we're going to drop 8 back into coverage as an additional wrinkle. The 8^th defender is likely to be Kerrigan with Miller being a possibility. With 8 men in coverage in an already condensed area, even a QB as good as Brady will have difficulty completing a pass. We have no fear of him making a play via scrambling, so we feel like this will severely limit their ability to score touchdowns in the red zone. Our offense is not great, but we believe it can outscore an offense that is limited to only field goals, especially if our offense is successful in limiting the number of their possessions.

If Louisiana chooses to go with their 6 OL package this week, we will only make a significant changes if Bilal Powell is active. For reasons stated before, an inactive Bilal Powell makes a run first scheme very impractical. Early in the game, while Elliot is still fresh, we will likely slant our playcalling towards Cover-1 or Cover-3 schemes that move a safety into the box for run support. However, if Bilal Powell is active and Louisiana gives us a heavier set, we will take Claiborne off the field for Star Lotulelei. We will still keep to our script of pressing with our outside corners and showing a 2-deep look, but we will be more inclined to move a safety into the box if we are getting absolutely gashed.

We are not overly concerned with Eric Ebron if Louisiana uses a 2 TE set. We will have very little to no changes to our coverage schemes outlined above. If they use 2 TE and 3 WR, Beckwith will be responsible for Ebron in man schemes. If they instead use 2 TE and 1 RB, then Brent Grimes will cover him. If they use 4 WRs, then Beckwith will come off the field for Trevor Williams. Our scheme will remain the same.

 

Tl;dr – Von Miller vs Menelik Watson. Ryan Kerrigan vs Laremy Turnsil. Very detailed and intricate coverage scheme. Seriously though, read the gameplan. You might actually vote for me.

 

[WFLukic]

No TJ Lang hurts. Incognito to C? Bakhtiari cleary wasn't good to go either, although he did get the IRL start.

 

 

[Hockey5djh]

So I'll start with the positive, I really likes OKC's gameplan. Unfortunately, I don't think that they have the players to pull it all off. I trust Brady to get rid of the ball before Miller/Kerrigan beat Watson/Tunsil more than I trust Cam with no center (hurt) and an even more shuffled line. OKC is also trotting out a 2-4-5 look which doesn't bode well against a Louisiana offense trying to establish the run early.

[TedLavie]

Lukic trashing Newton with a PFF link that actually says that the problem of Newton vs man is mainly due to his IRL receivers is fun.

Kudos for the effort guys. I think it's a tight game because OKC defense is able to slow down Louisiana offense. Whicker mistake, imho, was to assume Lousiana wouldn't run the ball because Powell was out, but Zeke is more than capable of getting 30-35 carries imho. So keeping a corner on the field on 2TE sets was a mistake. That being said, Louisiana TEs are crappy run blockers so it's not a deal breaker. Unfortunately, I think OKC offense is too limited, especially with these OL issues, to run their efficient ball control offense. 19-10 Lousiana

[MD4L]

I actually do want to vote OKC. Still Louisiana is strong in all areas. Watson may struggle but should have some success for Louisiana to move down the field. Defensively, I think Louisiana can get some pass rush and slow down Cam Newton enough for Brady/Zeke to get points.

Louisiana 34-OKC 24

[SirA1]

"The darkest hour is just before the dawn."

Louisiana 21  OKC 17

Love the gameplan Whicker. I know something about OL woes this year.

[Xmad]

OKC has a really good game plan but having a shuffled line and no C is a killer against Lousiana's pass rush, plus I feel like Brady+Zeke are able to do more than Cam+Blount.

Both team's fully healthy, I'd say OKC would win that matchup.  23-17 Lousiana.

[pheltzbahr]

I really want to vote for OKC, but that O Line just won't let me.

[Ragnarok]

I'm in the same boat as everyone else.  OKC has had awful OL luck.  But they are going to be awesome when that OL gets healthy.  

[Scoundrel]

I'm voting for OKC. Every dog has their day and this is the gameplan that might rise above the talent. OKC wins on a Miller strip sack beating Watson that is scooped up by Kerrigan for the game winning points! Cam will be happy to be on the other end of this matchup.

 

[DingoLadd]

OKC because I feel like they like it's one of those days where effort overcomes actual problems on the field and the talent disparity is very close, not to mention the amazing gameplan by whicker. 

[PR]

Defense wins games. Okc

[bcb1213]

for me, zeke was actually suspended when this game happened so I am taking him as out, which for me swings it to OKC