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Bears offer for Wilson


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On 3/18/2021 at 11:08 PM, Malfatron said:

You dont trade your franchise qb.

picks arent worth much.

 

This is a myth.

3 of the last 10 Super Bowl winners were on their rookie contract.

Another 3 of them were free agent acquisitions (two of which the year they were signed).

1 was Eli Manning.

The rest were Tom Brady taking less than he was worth in New England.

If you want to win a Super Bowl you don’t pay your franchise QB.

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16 hours ago, animaltested said:

The main thing I take away from these numbers is that unless your QB is TFB or Mahomes, its really hard to win playoff games.

Foles has the 4th most playoff wins, he got all 4 in one run. 

Also, I have no clue how/why you organized the 6 QBs with 3 playoff wins. Looks like you were intentionally trying to place Russ at the bottom to better serve your narrative. Obviously no Seattle fan is content with the success or lack there of the franchise. This year was especially awful and infuriating. But looking at this by trimming the fat, it really tells me Russ has had the same amount of success as Roethlisburger and Brees of the last 6 years. Which is idk... ok I guess.

Well I was going to say that the QBs with 3 wins were in alphabetical order but then Goff threw that off. So I would say he is the outlier in the order. 
 

 

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4 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

This is a myth.

3 of the last 10 Super Bowl winners were on their rookie contract.

Another 3 of them were free agent acquisitions (two of which the year they were signed).

1 was Eli Manning.

The rest were Tom Brady taking less than he was worth in New England.

If you want to win a Super Bowl you don’t pay your franchise QB.

True having a QB on a cheap deal works out really well but whoever is getting Wilson likely makes the playoffs at least right and how valuable are many 20-something picks?

Obviously stuff happens so they might miss the playoffs but trading someone for a massive package of picks and not a ton else isn’t exactly great value 

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8 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

This is a myth.

3 of the last 10 Super Bowl winners were on their rookie contract.

Another 3 of them were free agent acquisitions (two of which the year they were signed).

1 was Eli Manning.

The rest were Tom Brady taking less than he was worth in New England.

If you want to win a Super Bowl you don’t pay your franchise QB.

There's lots of ways to cherry pick your stats. Here is another way.

QBs of the last 4 surviving teams in the playoffs 2020

  • Rodgers
  • Brady
  • Mahomes
  • Allen

So basically the top 3 QBs in the league and the greatest QB of all time.  Only one of these was on a rookie deal and he didn't make the super bowl.  Small sample (but that didn't stop you) says that based on 2021 if you want to get anywhere then you must do whatever you can and pay whatever it takes to get your superstar QB.

Edited by mikemike778
typo
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12 minutes ago, mikemike778 said:

There's lots of ways to cherry pick your stats. Here is another way.

QBs of the last 4 surviving teams in the playoffs 2020

  • Rodgers
  • Brady
  • Mahomes
  • Allen

So basically the top 3 QBs in the league and the greatest QB of all time.  Only one of these was on a rookie deal and he didn't make the super bowl.  Small sample (but that didn't stop you) says that based on 2021 if you want to get anywhere then you must do whatever you can and pay whatever it takes to get your superstar QB.

Lol.  Cherry pick these stats:

One quarterback since Steve Young has won a Super Bowl making 12% or more of the salary cap.

One.

Steve Young did it.  The Niners literally cheated the salary cap and got fined for it, but he did it.

So cherry pick those stats.

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Cherry picking is the whole point.

Seattle did not make the Super Bowl just because they had a rookie QB.

They did it because they absolutely nailed a bunch of draft picks and became a deep team with an elite unit (defense) and 2 playmakers on offense. (Beast Mode and Wilson) The QB was an important factor but they go nowhere without:

  • Richard Sherman in round 5
  • KJ Wright in round 4
  • SB MVP Malcolm Smith in round 7
    • Smith is also the guy who caught the CRABTREE! GET MY NAME OUTCHA MOUTH! interception
  • Kam Chancellor in round 5
  • Bobby Wagner at pick 47 overall in round 2
  • Byron Maxwell in round 6 and Brandon Browner undrafted
  • Absolutely crushing their first 3 picks of 2010 in Okung(6) Thomas(14) and Tate(60)

That team is a unicorn level anecdote, not a trend.

 

Joe Flacco was on year 5 of a rookie deal. They don't exist anymore. Its called 5th year option and its at about 26 million now for QBs.

  • So we have to pretend if we want to apply it to now.

 

This leaves the rookie QB who is a career 1 for 4 in the playoffs (pass attempts, not games). 🤣

  • So if you draft a QB in round 3, he goes on to put up the 3rd highest passer rating in NFL history the next year, you trade him away and you sign him back later...
    • Then you win with a QB on a rookie contract? This is insanity when used as a trend.

 

MYTH STATUS:  BUSTED

 

Edited by SkippyX
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9 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

This is a myth.

3 of the last 10 Super Bowl winners were on their rookie contract.

Another 3 of them were free agent acquisitions (two of which the year they were signed).

1 was Eli Manning.

The rest were Tom Brady taking less than he was worth in New England.

If you want to win a Super Bowl you don’t pay your franchise QB.

 

4 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

True having a QB on a cheap deal works out really well but whoever is getting Wilson likely makes the playoffs at least right and how valuable are many 20-something picks?

Obviously stuff happens so they might miss the playoffs but trading someone for a massive package of picks and not a ton else isn’t exactly great value 

 

42 minutes ago, mikemike778 said:

There's lots of ways to cherry pick your stats. Here is another way.

QBs of the last 4 surviving teams in the playoffs 2020

  • Rodgers
  • Brady
  • Mahomes
  • Allen

So basically the top 3 QBs in the league and the greatest QB of all time.  Only one of these was on a rookie deal and he didn't make the super bowl.  Small sample (but that didn't stop you) says that based on 2021 if you want to get anywhere then you must do whatever you can and pay whatever it takes to get your superstar QB.

 

28 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Lol.  Cherry pick these stats:

One quarterback since Steve Young has won a Super Bowl making 12% or more of the salary cap.

One.

Steve Young did it.  The Niners literally cheated the salary cap and got fined for it, but he did it.

So cherry pick those stats.

 

How about we take a wide-angle view of what it takes nowadays for teams to get to the AFCG / NFCG - IMO I think this gives a MUCH clearer picture on how QB-driven the league has become as the shift has gone from D to O over the last 10+ years.  And yes, I actually looked it up & posted in our DEN forum when discussing Watson back in Februrary.

The part that applies to QB talk quoted below:

Quote

 

This is the list you get since 2010 (11 games each, and 44 QB's):

Tom Brady - 9

A-Rod - 5

Peyton Manning, Patrick Mahomes - 3

Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Big Ben, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco (back when he was still decent), Mark Sanchez (LOL, only guy to go 0-2 here) - 2 

Brett Favre, Josh Allen, Eli Manning, Jared Goff, Andrew Luck, JimmyG,  Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, Jay Cutler, Alex Smith, Carson Palmer, Nick Foles, Case Keenum, Blake Bortles (Eli, Cam, Goff, CK, JimmyG & Foles winners, rest L's - no SB winners except Eli & Foles) - 1


That list really shows that outside of Mark Sanchez, the only way you go deep in the playoffs repeatedly - you get franchise-level QB play.    Average-level QB play only gets you the odd time there (Sanchez notwithstanding).   I think the fact we got there in 2015 with Peyton being so bad, it's clouded DEN fans from the overall perspective that you can get to a SB different ways - but if you want to keep being a contender, it's a LOT easier with a true franchise-level QB.

 

 

There are many ways you can get to the Final 4- and it's a lot easier with a very good, rookie-contract QB.   But more importantly, it's actually easier to return to Final 4's consistently - if you have great QB play.   There is no way around it when you pan out far enough to look at the Final 4 teams - it gives a wider angle to show that great QB play gets teams to be in position for a legitimate chance to win.    There's so much that happens between the Final 4 and winning, and it reduces the sample size greatly.   

All of which to say - if SEA can find good to great QB play cheaply - great, their path to sustained contention gets easier.   But the moment they trade Wilson, if they're not getting good to great QB play - no matter the cost - it's going to be a lot harder.  Not impossible, but harder.   And the big key - if you want to come back multiple times to get to the Final 4 - then great QB play is almost always the path there.

Edited by Broncofan
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1999 was Kurt Warner.

  • You find undrafted free agent grocery store bagger HoF QBs all day long, so that's a solid data point.

2000 was Dilfer.

  • If you have one of the 5 best Ds in the history of the league then I guess you are fine with whoever you want.

2001, 2003, 2004, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020 was Tom Brady

  • Do you honestly suggest cloning as a strategy?

 

This is also a discussion for people who can see past the surface level.

Brady and Roethlisberger got paid before 2003 and 2008

  • Brady signed a 4 year 29.6 million dollar deal in 2002 so his rookie deal lasted exactly 2 years.
    • 6 of his 7 Super Bowls were as a high paid QB, just not ultra high due to yearly manipulation and his lack of set-the-bar greed.
  • Big Ben was handed 28 million for the 2008 season as year 1 of a new deal. That sound like a rookie deal to you?
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  • 2 weeks later...

Would you rather trade for Wilson and his contract demands, or trade two 1sts and a 3rd with Atlanta this year to draft Fields? 

I dunno

Edited by Hunter2_1
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Terrible trade for Seattle. The Bears would be good and all those 1st round picks would be late 20s picks for sure. Mack is getting old. No thanks. Legit awful trade for Seattle. Only decent trade for Wilson would be a top 2 pick where a top QB is guaranteed with multiple 1st round picks in addition to a player or two. Or a top 10 current QB and at least 3 first round picks. He is a top QB in this league and in his prime. He doesnt just go for a few 1st round picks and an overrated player like Mack

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On 3/20/2021 at 5:42 PM, NudeTayne said:

Two years tops.

Isn't Wilson only 32?  I don't think he has ever had any serious injuries in his career (he has only missed a couple of games due to injury) so I would think he'd still be productive for a lot more than 2 years.

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