3rd Overall Pick - Trey Lance vs Justin Fields (with bonus third poll option)

[N4L]

Let's assume for the sake of this thread that Saleh doesn't pull a 2017 Kyle shanahan and decide to pass on a qb when he has the opportunity to draft (more than one) generational QB, and that Zach Wilson is off the board at #2. (obviously TL is gone as well) 

That leaves us with our choice between the remaining QBs: Lance, fields, and since everyone insists that this is a possibility, despite the absolute crap value, Mac Jones. 

Who you got? 

Honestly, it feels like we traded up because we wanted to avoid being forced to take Jones. Lol. Let's not forget that Nick Saban gave us bad Intel on Ruben foster and that we have not drafted an Alabama player since that time. This regime talks about how they got good Intel on Deebo from south Carolinas coach, and that was a reason they felt comfortable drafting kinlaw when he gave them good reviews again. That sort of stuff matters. I just can't see us drafting Jones at 3. 

Edited March 27, 2021 by N4L

[NYRaider]

I think it really comes down to what the 49ers plan to do with Jimmy G. If they're serious about keeping him then you probably go with Lance and let him sit for a year. But if they're planning to trade Jimmy I think you go with Fields as he's more ready to step in as a day 1 starter. 

[Forge]

I was going to copy paste, but I am lazy

1 hour ago, Forge said:

Some notes on the three guys: 

Justin Fields: 

• Personal connection with Shanny. Cuts both ways (Shanny could love him or hate him), but this staff has very much been about personal connections in the past. Something to keep in mind. 
• The most accurate passer tracked by Ian Wharton thus far out of the class (not sure if he's finished tracking Mac Jones yet). And he's one of the most accurate passers since 2012

• He's got Lance's physical upside and tools with Jones' ability to play right away. 
• Humorously enough, has the most experience out of the group. Mac has 17 starts, Lance has 16. Fields with the booming 22 starts. 
• Slow processor
• Doesn't throw with much anticipation or throw guys open. Very much is a sees what is guy and not a sees what could be guy. Did get better in this regard in year two, and there's an excellent breakdown of this in the two games against Clemson on youtube if you guys want to check it out. 
• Needs to be more comfortable throwing the ball away. 
• Kind of wilts in big games? I mean, not always, but you look at some of the bigger games at OSU over the last two years, and his history is kind of spotty. 

 

Mac Jones

• Does not boast an real elite physical traits that you would probably want at pick #3. Mac Jones will have to completely max out from the neck up to compensate, and that's kind of hard. 
• Extremely poised and highly intelligent. Makes a lot of presnap reads and judgments. 
• Works amazingly well out of playaction, which we all know is going to be big with Shanny. 
• Gorgeous deep ball. 
• He's not an athlete, but he moves in the pocket very well. If you were looking for someone similar, I'd say Matt Stafford. Forget about the arm stuff, I'm just talking about what kind of athletes they are and how they use what they have to work around in the pocket. 
• For someone who is said to be polished and mentally sharp with regards to processing and on the field, his reliance on Smith is pretty mind boggling. A 30/40/50 split is a bit arbitrary, but at the same time, those benchmarks are nearly unheard of. Those are benchmarks that Megatron wasn't hitting with Stafford in Detroit. 
• We have a spotty history with Alabama coaches. I don't know if this means anything in the end, but the relationship between our staff and Alabama's has been documented as fractured. 
• Ian Wharton tracked quite a few dropped interceptions (8 total, which is the same as their dropped receptions in the first 8 games lol). 
• Big games in big games. 

 

Trey Lance

• Watch his tape. Now realize that he was 19 years old when he was doing what you are watching. At 19, Justin Fields had yet to take a snap in college and Mac Jones was getting arrested for DUIs. 
• May have the highest ceiling not out of just these three, but the entire draft class. Its at least comparable to Trevor and Wilson, even if he's much further away from it. 
• Speaking of which, there is nobody in this class who is further away from their ceiling than Trey Lance. These kind of things are terrifying as we found out with Solomon Thomas. In an ideal world, you don't want one of the primary words used to describe your top 3 pick to be "Raw"
• He's said to be absolutely brilliant. 
• He has less than 300 passes thrown in college (correction; he actually has 318 as sports reference doesn't consider this years game an actual game, but I will for the purposes of this) . The inexperience here is almost unprecedented. He comes from a run heavy college offense where he averaged fewer than 20 passes a game. Cam only threw 280 times for Auburn, but at least the year before that he started in Juco
• He will make some throws that will make your mouth water...and make some throws where he clearly doesn't have a feel for it. It's very Josh Allen-y. The physical tools are off the charts. I watch him and I think he has a very unnatural feel for actually passing the ball, but that can come. The dude was 19. 
• He is the king of small things that are unappreciated by us. What do I mean by this? His role within the offense allows him to make checks at the line and he handles almost all the offensive line protection calls. He's used to heavier set personnel (including using a fullback), taking snaps from under center or in the shotgun, utilizes heavy play action, has an offense that conducts full field reads (and he will scan the full field), etc. I could go on. 
• Here's the flip side to that...he's not particularly great at *any* of that yet lol. Central Arkansas kicked his butt because they flipped coverages and blitzes after the snap after showing something pre snap which fooled him. He could look off safeties more often and things like that. Whenever I have watched him, I feel like he's just a tick late in what he's seeing. This is something I actually do expect to get better over time. Things tend to speed up. If you go back to the youtube video I referenced comparing Fields' two clemson games, this is something that the person talks about with regards to Fields - in year 1, he often had the right read / decision, but was too late to make the choice. 
• We have never seen him live. I mean, that's going to be ballsy if we go that route without having seen him live. Totally old school, to be honest. 
• Oh yeah, and the guy threw 28 tds to 0 ints in his first full year starting. I don't care that he plays for North Dakota State, that's absolutely bonkers. 

 

 

[N4L]

20 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

I think it really comes down to what the 49ers plan to do with Jimmy G. If they're serious about keeping him then you probably go with Lance and let him sit for a year. But if they're planning to trade Jimmy I think you go with Fields as he's more ready to step in as a day 1 starter. 

You have it backwards. You pick the QB you want and then decide what to do with Garoppolo, not the other way around. 

We are moving on from Garoppolo. Nothing about him should be used to determine who we draft. 

[NYRaider]

12 minutes ago, N4L said:

You have it backwards. You pick the QB you want and then decide what to do with Garoppolo, not the other way around. 

We are moving on from Garoppolo. Nothing about him should be used to determine who we draft. 

Lance isn't ready to step in as a day one starter. He's going to need at least a year to sit behind a QB before he'll be ready to play. It would be similar to the Smith/Kapernick and Smith/Mahomes situations. 

If you're moving on from Garoppolo then no question in my mind that the pick should be Justin Fields. 

[NYRaider]

35 minutes ago, Forge said:

I was going to copy paste, but I am lazy

 

There are a few things that worry me about Lance especially if he's expected to be a day 1 starter:

• He was only a 1 year starter against a lower level of competition. In recent drafts guys with only a season starting has been a mixed bag and Lance played against subpar competition. 

• He played in a very QB friendly system at NDSU, when you watch his tape it was typically one read and then look to run. 

• His last 5 games of tape where pretty meh and he struggled with accuracy and ball placement in each of those games. 

• He played in a very run first offense at NDSU and only averaged 18 attempts per game at NDSU. In the 8 games he was asked to throw the ball 20+ times he only completed 62% of his passes. 

He definitely has the tools but reminds me of Josh Allen coming into the NFL. His best football is probably 2-3 years away.

[N4L]

15 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Lance isn't ready to step in as a day one starter. He's going to need at least a year to sit behind a QB before he'll be ready to play. It would be similar to the Smith/Kapernick and Smith/Mahomes situations. 

If you're moving on from Garoppolo then no question in my mind that the pick should be Justin Fields. 

Again, you have it completely wrong. 

If you want Lance, you take Lance, and you keep Garoppolo in all likelihood

If you want fields, you take fields, and you decide if fields is ready to start for you 

You don't make the most important pick in franchise history, the most important pick of Lynch and shanahans career, based on who is going to start for you in 2021. That would be so dumb. I can't stress enough how foolish that would be. 

You can repeat yourself in different words all you want, but you are not applying any sort of logic or analytical thinking if you honestly believe this team will draft someone based on whether or not they keep Garoppolo for 2021 

There is a good chance they will keep him regardless of who they draft. Keeping him does allow them to take a bigger project like Lance, but that doesn't mean they will take Lance because they keep Garoppolo, it will be because they love Lance. Understand? 

[Forge]

23 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

There are a few things that worry me about Lance especially if he's expected to be a day 1 starter:

• He was only a 1 year starter against a lower level of competition. In recent drafts guys with only a season starting has been a mixed bag and Lance played against subpar competition. 

• He played in a very QB friendly system at NDSU, when you watch his tape it was typically one read and then look to run. 

• His last 5 games of tape where pretty meh and he struggled with accuracy and ball placement in each of those games. 

• He played in a very run first offense at NDSU and only averaged 18 attempts per game at NDSU. In the 8 games he was asked to throw the ball 20+ times he only completed 62% of his passes. 

He definitely has the tools but reminds me of Josh Allen coming into the NFL. His best football is probably 2-3 years away.

If there was one word I would describe him with, it's inconsistent. Just everything about him. Mechanics. Touch. Etc.

The most worrisome thing is that I don't view him as a natural thrower. By far the least accurate of these three, including in the deep game (throws a legit beautiful out though, just needs to get more consistent on when to throw it). 

Some of that is just his age. The problem is, I don't know how much of it is. That makes a projection difficult. 

 

 

[Forge]

Also, I shall no longer be referring to Jones as Mac or Mac Jones. From here on out he's Mccorkle or Mccorkle Jones only

[Aussie9er]

I honestly think jets aren't going qb. Thus we are drafting wilson, 

[burlow]

18 minutes ago, Aussie9er said:

I honestly think jets aren't going qb. Thus we are drafting wilson, 

I am under this suspicion too.  Wilson is the only QB who would not make it past #3, it makes sense in a way with how it went down.  If Miami doesnt trade the Jets know Wilson is a legit prospect and will demand a whole lot of value if it is draft time and Miami is sitting on the clock with Wilson available.  We still payed a premium price but on draft day the eagles will probably give up the same price and Miami comes out of this offseason 1 FRP down the road stronger.

So Jets tip us and we trade Miami early at a 'discount' if Wilson is there, the AFC rivals of the Jets do not get as strong and good will is forged between the two franchises.  Now there is a whole lot of subjective in this theory and would be a lot of intrigue but I can see the world where it does happen.  There would also have to be a lot of trust and even though they have Selah there would still have to be an incredible amount of trust.  There is a lot riding on the table.

[Aussie9er]

Jets need more weapons and o-line otherwise its another darnold situation a rookie qb with hardly any weapons to throw too. Setting him up to fail just like they did with darnold. 

Thats just my view, 

[Justone2]

If we somehow end up with Wilson is the one we end up going with i am all for trading away Garoppolo. If we end up with Jones, Fields or Lance(my least favourite option of the 4) i think keeping Jimmy is the best course of action. While Kyle's offense is pretty simple in terms of the types of throws and how open receivers get it is tougher on the mental side. I remember Matt Ryan saying it really only started to click for him in year 2. Its why i am also not really sold on Fields being as good a fit for this type of offense. 

 

Of the three i would probably prefer Jones altough i can be swayed to Fields easily. Yeah he doesn't have the crazy athletic plays the other two have but in terms of how he moves in the pocket he is way better. It may not look that flashy where he jukes defenders but i think those little subtle movements are way underrated in terms of avoiding sacks its why Brady gets sacked way less than a guy like Wilson. It makes the O-line play look better(i get it that Alabama's line in general is the best in college). Also the most common negative i see is that he has so much talent around him but when i look to last year Burrow had maybe even more talent surrounding him both in receivers and OC give me what LSU had last year over Alabama this year(especially with Waddle being out for such a big part of the year). The O-line is in Bama's favour alltough that LSU line was pretty good and Harris/CEH is more of a wash to me honestly. And yeah he doesn't have the big big cannon but most of the best QB's didn't have the biggest arm of their generation. 

[NinerNation21]

Do we know if the jets like fields? I think we all expect Wilson at #2, but is there anything pointing to that yet?

[J-ALL-DAY]

I'm fine with Jones, but if he is the pick I wish we did not trade up to #3 for him. 

I prefer Lance/Fields/Jones in that order. 

And yes, I would like to keep Jimmy and make a run at it with him. The team is loaded and with even decent health, they can compete with pretty much anyone in the NFC. Then I would try to flip him next year though he would only have one more year left on his deal so that could hurt his value a bit.