3rd Overall Pick - Trey Lance vs Justin Fields (with bonus third poll option)

[mountainpd]

Afternoon Ladies and Gents.

I haven’t read all the comments but seem to have a pretty classy forum here.

My 2p worth.

I think they are picking Fields, i think the timing of the move is before Fields pro day so the Dolphins pick at 3 didn’t increase in value and SF took Panthers and Broncos out of the pick 3 market.

They must have a pretty clear view on who the Jets are picking to have the conviction in trading up so early but I admire the aggressive approach.

I feel they have to find the QB with the division they are in and looking at the roster I think if you find the rookie you can keep the gang together for longer. What is for certain is the pre draft process just got very interesting.

Unfortunately with me being a Dolphins fan it would be handy if you were rubbish for a couple of years like the Texans have been so we can get some good value on those picks so excuse me if I root against you for a bit. 
 

[757-NINER]

1 hour ago, mountainpd said:

Afternoon Ladies and Gents.

I haven’t read all the comments but seem to have a pretty classy forum here.

My 2p worth.

I think they are picking Fields, i think the timing of the move is before Fields pro day so the Dolphins pick at 3 didn’t increase in value and SF took Panthers and Broncos out of the pick 3 market.

They must have a pretty clear view on who the Jets are picking to have the conviction in trading up so early but I admire the aggressive approach.

I feel they have to find the QB with the division they are in and looking at the roster I think if you find the rookie you can keep the gang together for longer. What is for certain is the pre draft process just got very interesting.

Unfortunately with me being a Dolphins fan it would be handy if you were rubbish for a couple of years like the Texans have been so we can get some good value on those picks so excuse me if I root against you for a bit. 
 

I really dont think the Pro Day thing is a thing. If they like Fields, they wouldn't let the rest of the league know or tip their hand. This FO is pretty good about keeping their intentions unknown.

My gut says its Fields just because his game is sort of Watson-esque, if you will. They have similar traits and I can see the appeal/upside of what he could develop into. 

Lance just seems too raw for me to appeal to Shanny. Could be wrong there but I see Lance as more of a project than Fields.

And I agree, I think they know the Jets are taking Wilson and were okay with taking either Fields or Lance. Intially I thought this move had to be because they knew Wilson would be available. But the more I thought on it, I'm sure the Jets never guaranteed they wouldn't move off of #2 so they had to have been okay knowing Wilson may not be there. Either that or they asked about trading up to #2, got told absolutely not, so they knew the Jets were going to take a QB.

And last be certainly not least...COYG!

[J-ALL-DAY]

12 hours ago, N4L said:

I had a thought about the McCorkle Jones rumors. Here is the order of events:

1) Niners scouting all rookie QBs. Decide to make a switch

2) Niners realize they need to maintain the stance of "we are keeping garoppolo, we dont need to do anything at QB" to retain leverage while trading, and to prevent a QB needy team from jumping them etc etc

3) Consensus says the top 4 QBs are going in the top 7-8 picks

4) We realize we need to trade up into the top 5 to get the guy we want and start the negotiations with those teams. Per schefter we were working on this trade for 3 straight weeks  

5) Trade talks stall, word gets out the niners are trying to trade up, teams try to get us to pay a premium for a QB because they know we are moving on from Garoppolo. The draft is in a month and other teams arent in a rush to make a deal. 

6) Niners leak that Kyle is in love with McCorkle Jones, who will absolutely be available at #12. They do this as a way to gain leverage. Anyone else notice that these "Kyle may like McCorkle Jones" rumors started within the last 3 weeks? Which is coincidentally exactly when we started trying to trade up. Hell, I was even coming around to the idea of drafting him at 12. I was like, "well - not terrible if we really want a QB, at least we will save some $$$ by doing it." It was all about leverage in those talks. 

7) The media mouthpieces and other "sources" have been hearing how much Kyle likes McCorkle for the last few weeks. "The niners make a trade, it must be for the guy they have been telling us they like recently!!!" L O L 

J said in the other thread that the media is flip flopping because none of them have any clue. Even Maiocco has no clue. We all can only make our best guess, but trading up to #3 for the consensus 5th QB one month before the draft makes no freaking sense to me. I get it if you like McCorkle as a player, by all means trade up to get the guy you want, even if he is the consensus 5th QB, pull the trigger if you have him ranked #3... but do it on draft day. Have a little patience and jump up when he is the next QB on the board after the other 4 have been taken.

People keep wanting to bring up the Mahomes trade. The chiefs were realllly patient with that one. He was the third QB taken. They knew he would be the third QB taken, and waited to move up until Watson was taken. They probably would have given up more if they felt Mahomes was going to go higher, but they knew that the entire football world had Watson ahead of him, so they waited, and pounced. 

Its a different set of circumstances, but if McCorkle Jones was the target, then we should have just traded with the eagles on draft day.

Good post, and while I don't think it is for Jones, what have we seen from Shanny thus far? When you say why would they trade up to #3 for the consensus 5th best QB? Well, because if Shanny wants someone, he will trade up regardless if it is good value or not. No one had Beathard as a 3rd round QB yet Shanny didn't want the possibility of him getting picked before their 4th round pick so he traded up. When it comes to offensive players, Shanny will always trade up to get them and not give two damns about value. 

And it's hard to say Jones would be the 5th QB on every team's draft board. I don't think he would make it past #8 to Carolina. Some may not even have a top 10 grade on Lance and we have heard the same about Fields. 

There could also be a possibility that Shanny doesn't quite know yet which QB he wants to take but just likes a few of them and wants to have the option of getting to decide which one to take. 

[rudyZ]

I feel like Shanahan probably does like Jones. And I think the organization may have let that knowledge leak out. If we hadn't managed to trade up, Jones could easily have been the pick at 12, and letting it leak beforehand just lets the fans get used to the idea and create some hype for it. But that doesn't mean Jones was Plan A. I have serious doubts we moved up to get Jones at 3. We probably moved up for someone else, but they can't unleak what was leaked beforehand. And while the Jones stuff was out there, no one suspected we were trying to move up to 3, which serves its purpose. Now we're at 3, and our hand isn't tipped. So we're where we want to be.

[JIllg]

Ok, Trey Lance deep dive. I worked through a lot of Fields tape on Friday and Saturday morning. The rest of the day was Trey Lance day - both reading and watching. #1 - he is so much better than Fields against pressure that it's kind of absurd. His offensive line struggled in the FCS playoff run at times, but he has such a great feel for manipulating the pocket and sidestepping defenders. The stats bear this out - Fields had far, far more of his pressures get turned into sacks. #2 - the running. If you want a QB run game, he'll give you fewer negative plays than Fields there and will keep the offense grinding along Ravens style. I was at Auburn when Cam was there.  A lot of the running tape reminded me of Cam - the trucking guys and moving forward and squeezing yards. Fields can really roll in the open field and run on goal line reps and on third downs. Lance can make that a complete part of your offense Greg Roman style. Plus, his body feels like it's made of adamantium. Fields feels lankier and easier to injure on tape - he ran higher and took a lot of shots to the ribs and winced a lot. Lance just meat grinds through folks. #3 - the accuracy and the lack of reps. With Fields - I know that I'm going to have an elite arm at covering every blade of grass. It's strong, it's accurate by both the eye measure and every ball tracking site. He's incredibly accurate. With Lance there were some misses on the intermediate stuff that were just layups for Fields. But he's a junkton more accurate than Josh Allen coming out and he was really young. If you want to convince yourself that he'll get there or that it doesn't matter if he doesn't, I can at least track your thinking. #4 - the mental stuff. His offense had verbose west-coast terminology with multiple plays for the quarterback to choose from at the line and the quarterback set protections. When it comes to the handling a Shanahan offense part of the team, he's probably the most prepared in the draft. Including Mac Jones and Zach Wilson. So, long story short, I'm more okay with Lance than I began the day feeling yesterday. I still prefer Fields; I think accuracy to all parts of the field is the thing for a quarterback and I'll live with the downsides. But if they take Lance I can track it. 

 

P.S. Don't take Mac Jones. 

[rudyZ]

I feel like Lance has arm strength, but not as much arm talent as Fields. His strong throws are mostly made from a strong base. Fields, on the other hand, throws with ease. It just looks so effortless and jumps out of his hands. But I agree Lance has better movement in the pocket. He has quicker feet. Fields looks slow to decide to move, and if he doesn't have to move, his feet look glued to the ground, and he uses his easy throwing motion to generate power, whereas Lance has to use the ground more. I think Fields looks like the better thrower, which in turns can make him a more threatening runner. There are a lot fewer unknowns in Fields' game, I think. That's why I feel he's more likely to be the guy at #3.

[JIllg]

45 minutes ago, rudyZ said:

I feel like Lance has arm strength, but not as much arm talent as Fields. His strong throws are mostly made from a strong base. Fields, on the other hand, throws with ease. It just looks so effortless and jumps out of his hands. But I agree Lance has better movement in the pocket. He has quicker feet. Fields looks slow to decide to move, and if he doesn't have to move, his feet look glued to the ground, and he uses his easy throwing motion to generate power, whereas Lance has to use the ground more. I think Fields looks like the better thrower, which in turns can make him a more threatening runner. There are a lot fewer unknowns in Fields' game, I think. That's why I feel he's more likely to be the guy at #3.

I really think Fields has the highest ceiling in the class. He just does difficult things so easily. Like, I don't think Lance can ever get to his level of easy accuracy. He can get better and his throwing motion is a touch more compact, but Fields is an outlier.  Lawrence doesn't have it. He's very good, but not quite Fields level in all metrics. Wilson has it. But he doesn't have the quite the same velocity. And he ain't outrunning linebackers. He does have proven quick game anticipation and would fit better immediately, though.

Edited March 28, 2021 by JIllg

[49ersfan]

Steve Wyche's take (NFLN reporter who was at the BYU pro day & probably spoke to Lynch and others). 

Quote

"The people I spoke with believe it's either Trey Lance or Justin Fields," Wyche told Martin. "They think that those mobile quarterbacks with the big arms would fit perfectly into what Kyle (Shanahan) likes to do, and they also think that Zach Wilson won't be there at three.

"... We know that Trey Lance has had his pro day already. The Ohio State pro day with Justin Fields is next week, so we'll see if that's something that is a swing vote, if they've got their eye on Trey Lance, or if they're set on Trey Lance already."

Wyche reiterated some of the things he has already said on Friday about Jimmy Garoppolo—that general manager John Lynch said the quarterback remains in the team's plans for this season. However, if a team inquires about Garoppolo, the 49ers will explore the offers.

"But John did add that a lot of teams are circling around Jimmy, right now," Wyche continued. "He's gotten several calls on him. So, if they get the compensation that they think is fair, I could see Jimmy Garoppolo being moved before the draft and the Niners rocking with a rookie QB this year."

 

https://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/145771-wyche-trading-garoppolo-before-starting-rookie-justin-fields/

Edited March 28, 2021 by 49ersfan

[Forge]

4 minutes ago, 49ersfan said:

Steve Wyche's take (NFLN reporter who was at the BYU pro day & probably spoke to Lynch and others). 

 

https://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/145771-wyche-trading-garoppolo-before-starting-rookie-justin-fields/

One thing that was talked about on 49er access was Jimmy for jc jackson (sterling brought it up to barrows). The pats only put a second round tender on him, so his value is set.  If the niners are looking for a second for Jimmy, and the pats are willing to lose jackson for a second, seems like a good fit value wise. 

What do you think @J-ALL-DAY?

[49ersfan]

1 minute ago, Forge said:

One thing that was talked about on 49er access was Jimmy for jc jackson (sterling brought it up to barrows). The pats only put a second round tender on him, so his value is set.  If the niners are looking for a second for Jimmy, and the pats are willing to lose jackson for a second, seems like a good fit value wise. 

What do you think @J-ALL-DAY?

Clear $25 mil in cap space & solve our 2nd biggest need with a good 25 year old CB? I'm in

Also question for all; if we do trade Jimmy G,who would you guys want as a backup/spot starter? I personally would like to trade a 4th-5th for Minshew. 

[Forge]

18 minutes ago, 49ersfan said:

Clear $25 mil in cap space & solve our 2nd biggest need with a good 25 year old CB? I'm in

Also question for all; if we do trade Jimmy G,who would you guys want as a backup/spot starter? I personally would like to trade a 4th-5th for Minshew. 

It's Minshew and I don't think that it's particularly close for me. I'd bring back Alex as a third QB / QB coach. He would never see the field though even if the two ahead of him got hurt lol

[J-ALL-DAY]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

One thing that was talked about on 49er access was Jimmy for jc jackson (sterling brought it up to barrows). The pats only put a second round tender on him, so his value is set.  If the niners are looking for a second for Jimmy, and the pats are willing to lose jackson for a second, seems like a good fit value wise. 

What do you think @J-ALL-DAY?

Wouldn't be opposed to that but you're likely going to have to give him a long-term deal. I'd still prefer Gilmore and giving him a two year extension at the time of the trade. 

What are we thinking the team does with its 2nd rounder if they hold on to it? Corner or edge rusher? 

[Forge]

Reports are that New England is not pursuing Jimmy. As I said earlier, I'm also okay with this. If the pick is Lance, I really do feel strongly that this is the correct play to try and re-establish some value and trying to take advantage. If the pick is McCorkle or Fields its a little more interesting, but still ultimately I think you start Jimmy. 

[Forge]

1 minute ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Wouldn't be opposed to that but you're likely going to have to give him a long-term deal. I'd still prefer Gilmore and giving him a two year extension at the time of the trade. 

What are we thinking the team does with its 2nd rounder if they hold on to it? Corner or edge rusher? 

Corner for me unless the board breaks badly. I'm looking at Farley (hate back injuries, but at this juncture you have to take a shot at a top 10 talent in the draft), Newsome, Molden. The georgia kids maybe. 

For me, there's a huge difference in the corner class from pick 43 to pick 100, whereas I think the drop in edge rusher class isn't nearly as extreme. Hell, I could even push edge rusher further down the board and I don't think that there would be that big of a drop. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

10 minutes ago, Forge said:

Reports are that New England is not pursuing Jimmy. As I said earlier, I'm also okay with this. If the pick is Lance, I really do feel strongly that this is the correct play to try and re-establish some value and trying to take advantage. If the pick is McCorkle or Fields its a little more interesting, but still ultimately I think you start Jimmy. 

I don't buy that report tbh. By all accounts the Pats have been after Jimmy all offseason but have gotten nowhere in talks as the Niners keep shutting them down. So now they are going to leak they aren't after Jimmy in hopes of SF circling back to them. Both teams are just playing games. If Jimmy is made available, you better believe NE will come calling.