2022 NFL Draft Thread

[packfanfb]

Latest talk on the EDGE position is that Hutch, Walker, Thib and Johnson could all go top 5, or worst, top 7. That's a BIG gap between there and hoping Karlaftis falls to 22. Have to imagine he doesn't make it that far. 

[TheEagle]

51 minutes ago, R T said:

I think that is the opposite of the way Gutes thinks of this draft. He has an unusually high amount of draft capital, and he will want to come out of the first round with one of the players he thinks can be a difference maker for them. A trade up in the 1st seems very likely. 

I doubt Gute is dead set on one way or the other. He'll see how the board falls, and he could go either directrion. It's entirely possible he trades down out of the 1st round into the early 2nd round and then trades up from one of his 2nd round picks. That may be where the sweet spot of this draft is for players that fit the Packers. When I look at good fits for the Packers, that's where I see a lot of the players (Watson, Pickens, Pierce, McBride, Lucas, Tyler Smith, Jones, Mafe, Ebiketie, Pitre, Cine).

Edited April 26, 2022 by TheEagle

[R T]

1 minute ago, TheEagle said:

I doubt Gute is dead set on one way or the other. He'll see how the board falls, and he could go either directrion. It's entirely possible he trades down out of the 1st round into the early 2nd round and then trades up from one of his 2nd round picks. That may be where the sweet spot of this draft is for players that fit the Packers.

That does seem to be the group think, I'm just not part of that group. 

[NFLGURU]

6 minutes ago, TheEagle said:

I doubt Gute is dead set on one way or the other. He'll see how the board falls, and he could go either directrion.

Agree, but I think a lot depends on who he is targeting and the value of trading up for that pick.   Im sure he has several options for working up or down planned out.         

  

[{Family Ghost}]

1 hour ago, R T said:

I think that is the opposite of the way Gutes thinks of this draft. He has an unusually high amount of draft capital, and he will want to come out of the first round with one of the players he thinks can be a difference maker for them. A trade up in the 1st seems very likely. 

Yeah .. I'm thinking he deals up with #22 and one of the seconds for a top WR.  Then he deals back from #28 in a deal with one of the QB needy clubs that wants a QB and the 5 yr. contract.  

 

[NFLGURU]

6 minutes ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Yeah .. I'm thinking he deals up with #22 and one of the seconds for a top WR.  Then he deals back from #28 in a deal with one of the QB needy clubs that wants a QB and the 5 yr. contract.  

 

I dont think hes going up too far if its a WR, mid teens??   but we'll see.   

[vegas492]

7 minutes ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Yeah .. I'm thinking he deals up with #22 and one of the seconds for a top WR.  Then he deals back from #28 in a deal with one of the QB needy clubs that wants a QB and the 5 yr. contract.  

 

I'm with yah on the trade up, then trade down.

But I'm not using a second round pick to move up.

4'th?  No problem.  3rd?  Eeeh.  Now I pause and need to get something back for it.  2nd?  No way.

[cannondale]

Other than Olave, I don't see another WR he would trade up for. And that's assuming he is interested in stretching his thresholds

[{Family Ghost}]

16 minutes ago, NFLGURU said:

I dont think hes going up too far if its a WR, mid teens??   but we'll see.   

I was thinking 13-15.  To get up that high you have to part with something like #22 & #59.  I think Gute will want one of those top WR's.

[{Family Ghost}]

6 minutes ago, cannondale said:

Other than Olave, I don't see another WR he would trade up for. And that's assuming he is interested in stretching his thresholds

I wouldn't be surprised if Gute was really high on London, but any of those top four wideouts could be targets .. Wilson, Williams, Olave & London.

[cannondale]

1 minute ago, {Family Ghost} said:

I wouldn't be surprised if Gute was really high on London, but any of those top four wideouts could be targets .. Wilson, Williams, Olave & London.

I'm assuming - right or wrong -  London and Wilson will be out of reach / too expensive to move up for. 

[Brit Pack]

You all know Deebo and Waller are incoming and those draft picks are gone! Such a shame, I booked a hotel for a few nights to kick back and watch the draft in peace.

[{Family Ghost}]

33 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

I'm with yah on the trade up, then trade down.

But I'm not using a second round pick to move up.

4'th?  No problem.  3rd?  Eeeh.  Now I pause and need to get something back for it.  2nd?  No way.

Depends on how high you have to go to lock down what you are looking for.  To get into the upper teens it would cost a late 2nd.  In the trade back from #28 you'd probably get a high 2nd and high 3rd .. possible two #2's.

 

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp?RequestTeam=GB

Edited April 26, 2022 by {Family Ghost}

[craig]

2 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

Two mindsets here, either you go up to capture a round 1 grade, or you let some team come up for a QB and get more picks in the 35-60 range where this draft is stronger than most years.

I don't know what Gute's scouting evals are. 

1. Suppose all teams have 15 "1st-round" grades.  Very likely Gute's 15 still differ from Houston's 15 and NO's 15 and Philly's 15, etc..  So there's still some possibility that one of Gute's 15 will last till 22, because other teams scout differently.
2. Or, suppose perhaps Gute does NOT have 15.  Maybe some teams do, but perhaps his scouting evals actually have 18?  If so, the change that one of his 18 will last to spot 22 increases.  Or, perhaps the cost of moving up just one or two steps to 21, 20, or 19 isn't prohibitively costly.
3. Or, suppose Gute's "Tier 1/Tier 2" "1st-round/2nd-round" grading isn't that super quantized, and is more continuum-oriented?  In a college class, some students get A's and some get B's.  Their is a massive separation between the best-of-the-A's and a B student who barely avoided a C; but there is a pretty slim separation between the lowest A- and the highest B+.  Maybe Gute won't have much separation between the lowest of his "1st-round" and highest "2nd-round" guys, and he'll be fine to wait it out at pick 22?  

Just saying that what Gute does depends on the Packers' evaluations, and they will be variably divergent from those of other analysts, including within this board.  It's somewhat hard for us to analyze what is logical for Gute to do, without knowing his scouting evals.  

[Norm]

9 minutes ago, craig said:

Suppose all teams have 15 "1st-round" grades.  Very likely Gute's 15 still differ from Houston's 15 and NO's 15 and Philly's 15, etc..  So there's still some possibility that one of Gute's 15 will last till 22, because other teams scout differently.

I was going on about this with someone earlier. Kept saying this draft sucks and only 15 first rounders, as if every time all has 15 1st grades and they're all the same. 

I'm guessing if you could see every single teams board there's probably 40(?), Just guessing here, total guys over all the teams that have a first round grade somewhere. But one team only has so many so the draft sucks. But they say it every year like that.

Maybe I'm way off but it just seems slanted when they talk about it as if there's only barely over a dozen guys coveted as a first round worthy pick. Not to mention even if there was only 20 total guys across every board, nobody is forfeiting their picks over it. So what does it matter. It's like arguing the definition of "elite" when it comes to QBs. I just don't think it means that much myself.