2021 Baker thread

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

5 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Here are my BIGGEST questions and/or concerns with Baker:

1. His success comes largely off of scheming guys open coming off of our run game. This definitely isn't his fault, and he's highly successful here, but a lot of this is due to Stefanski's system.

Yes, but isn’t that how it’s supposed to work?  The coach building a system that accentuates what their players do well?

5 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

2. Can he consistently win as a pure drop back passer in "off script" situations? Whether it's a 2 minute drill, the run game isn't clicking, you need to go 3-4 wide and can't rely on heavier personnel, etc. 

Still not sure why this isn’t working better.  This was what he did a ton of in college.

5 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

3. Will he take that "next step" and be able to attack the entire field instead of mostly just the 1/2 field reads? The reason he isn't hitting the middle of the field comes down to about 2-3 things:

The part of the field I’m most concerned about right now isn’t the right to left or vice versa, but rather the deep half.  We need to start connecting on some deep shots.  We’ve been essentially dinking and dunking all season.

5 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

A. The TE seam game needs work. Flat out, Hooper has been disappointing here.

Hooper has been a disappointment for sure, but I feel like the seam is where we should be using Njoku to split it deep against the 2 high safety looks.

5 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

B. Jarvis, our biggest middle of the field threat, has been hurt. Someone else needs to step up, and since Schwartz bailed on that dig route, we've basically gone away from those types of routes

I’m wondering why we’ve seemingly moved away from using Felton?  He hardly played last week.  I think he’d be a great fill in for Jarvis.

5 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

C. From a scheme perspective, a lot of those boot/flood concepts are Stefanski's bread and butter. I have ZERO issue with that, and it's highly successful, but more of these late game situations need to be capitalized off of when you "have to have them".

For the record, these questions and concerns, IMO, are not deal-breakers. They were the same concerns that people had with Dak a year ago, as well as many other young quarterbacks. 

Stefanski has done a brilliant job of what Freddie, Hue, and others should have done from the get go. Use flood and boot concepts to isolate 1/2 the field and read 1 defender. Then, years 2-4, you should be progressing to that "next stage" on a full field read progression.

I see some areas where Baker is processing more quickly, getting to his 3rd progression, etc., but some of the quick game, slant game, and seam game is clearly lacking.

I don’t disagree, but with so much change and turnover you almost have to grade him on a curve.  Those first 2 years didn’t do him a lot of favors.

[MWil23]

2 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Yes, but isn’t that how it’s supposed to work?  The coach building a system that accentuates what their players do well?

Yes, but I wasn't speaking in a vacuum so much as the entire "body of work" in light of the other issues in a 2 minute style offense, end of game situations (last week was WAY overblown on the last drive, but the 2nd to last drive is a concern...some of that falls on play-calling and Stefanski/a missed call or two). The Chiefs game is another example as well.

2 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Still not sure why this isn’t working better.  This was what he did a ton of in college.

It's hard to fix a broken QB. Some of that swagger has and will take some time to get back. The last real downfield middle shot he took was a WR breaking off a dig route, and it was intercepted (also his last INT that he threw). It can (not that it has) lead to a guy being a bit "gun shy". 

2 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

The part of the field I’m most concerned about right now isn’t the right to left or vice versa, but rather the deep half.  We need to start connecting on some deep shots.  We’ve been essentially dinking and dunking all season.

It comes back, IMO, to personnel and how it's being utilized. Who exactly is that "deep shot" guy? Week 1, it was Schwartz (and that's what he was supposed to be), and since then, it really hasn't been anyone in particular. When Jarvis comes back, I'm actually excited to see more DPJ, OBJ, and Juice, with even Hollywood as your outside/slot intermediate guy. Someone gets to be matched on a S or slot CB, and should in theory feast. Without Juice, DPJ has to be your de-facto other outside guy, and IMO they should be using OBJ more in the slot as opposed to outside (and should leave Hollywood out wide).

2 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Hooper has been a disappointment for sure, but I feel like the seam is where we should be using Njoku to split it deep against the 2 high safety looks.

No doubt there...but to be honest, he's always going to be more of a smash route/post route type based upon the moving pocket and mixers off of the run scheme and where he's utilized there. The seam concepts aren't necessarily meant to be coming from him (as of yet). Hopefully the Salt and Pepper Wizard can figure out a way to mix in some of these...but it's also REALLY hard to argue with a scheme that got us 42 points last week in a loss.

2 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I’m wondering why we’ve seemingly moved away from using Felton?  He hardly played last week.  I think he’d be a great fill in for Jarvis.

*See above for having it hard to argue with 42 points*

That said, clearly last week we liked the heavy personnel. The Chargers are giving up 140+ YPG rushing (before we dropped 230+ on them), and we liked the use of a FB, 2 TE, and our 2 headed RB monster, as well as the screen game. That's also why Njoku went off, was because it was a major mismatch on their LB/S based upon how Chubb and Hunt did.

2 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I don’t disagree, but with so much change and turnover you almost have to grade him on a curve.  Those first 2 years didn’t do him a lot of favors.

I don't disagree at all, but at the same point, these are major areas where he specifically needs to improve down the stretch if he ever wants to take that "next step". I think that he does and will, but these are tangible examples.

Fun fact:

He's averaging 13+ yards per play on screen passes this year, which is AWESOME, but yet things LIKE this masked Jared Goff's deficiencies as well in L.A. They have a brilliant offensive HC who was able to scheme things open, but when you need an "off script" drive (whether the game plan isn't working, it's a 2 minute or end of game situation, or someone is hurt, etc.), he couldn't deliver.

I DO NOT think Baker is Goff-like, but he needs to prove he can be that "next step" guy. There's still plenty of time left for him to do it, but he needs to show it THIS YEAR IMO.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

5 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Yes, but I wasn't speaking in a vacuum so much as the entire "body of work" in light of the other issues in a 2 minute style offense, end of game situations (last week was WAY overblown on the last drive, but the 2nd to last drive is a concern...some of that falls on play-calling and Stefanski/a missed call or two). The Chiefs game is another example as well.

Yeah the last couple of drives weren’t great in either game, but I think a lot of the issues get put on one or two guys as opposed to assigning the blame appropriately.

In KC the Schwartz drop, Gilan goof, and Chubb fumble were all as bad or worse than anything Baker and Stefanski did imo. You can’t have that comedy of errors and then blame coaching and the QB.  They were put in good position and didn’t execute basic tasks.  That’s on those players.

Against LAC, the biggest issue I had on the second to last drive was not having Chubb in there.  He was the hot hand, ride it.

In both games the last drive was somewhat hopeless.  Sure, everyone has expectations of winning and such, but let’s be honest.  Driving 70 yards in under 2 min with no timeouts and backup tackles isn’t super likely.  It’s not like they needed a FG, they needed 6. I guess I just can’t bash anyone for not doing something that’s pretty unlikely to begin with.

5 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

It's hard to fix a broken QB. Some of that swagger has and will take some time to get back. The last real downfield middle shot he took was a WR breaking off a dig route, and it was intercepted (also his last INT that he threw). It can (not that it has) lead to a guy being a bit "gun shy". 
 

I don’t even know if it’s being gun shy tbh.  It seems like he’s learned the offense is good enough to lean on the backs and be careful with the ball and they’ll put up points.

We’ve gone 3 weeks without a turnover and the two picks he has thrown you live with tbh (a WR not finishing the route/competing for the ball and the QB getting hit/tripped when throwing).

That’s winning football.

5 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

It comes back, IMO, to personnel and how it's being utilized. Who exactly is that "deep shot" guy? Week 1, it was Schwartz (and that's what he was supposed to be), and since then, it really hasn't been anyone in particular. When Jarvis comes back, I'm actually excited to see more DPJ, OBJ, and Juice, with even Hollywood as your outside/slot intermediate guy. Someone gets to be matched on a S or slot CB, and should in theory feast. Without Juice, DPJ has to be your de-facto other outside guy, and IMO they should be using OBJ more in the slot as opposed to outside (and should leave Hollywood out wide).

I like using Schwartz tbh. I wouldn’t have him in a ton, but when he’s in, he’s running deep.

I wouldn’t mind seeing a trick play, fleaflicker, etc., to keep the safeties deep.

5 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

No doubt there...but to be honest, he's always going to be more of a smash route/post route type based upon the moving pocket and mixers off of the run scheme and where he's utilized there. The seam concepts aren't necessarily meant to be coming from him (as of yet). Hopefully the Salt and Pepper Wizard can figure out a way to mix in some of these...but it's also REALLY hard to argue with a scheme that got us 42 points last week in a loss.

*See above for having it hard to argue with 42 points*

That said, clearly last week we liked the heavy personnel. The Chargers are giving up 140+ YPG rushing (before we dropped 230+ on them), and we liked the use of a FB, 2 TE, and our 2 headed RB monster, as well as the screen game. That's also why Njoku went off, was because it was a major mismatch on their LB/S based upon how Chubb and Hunt did.

I don't disagree at all, but at the same point, these are major areas where he specifically needs to improve down the stretch if he ever wants to take that "next step". I think that he does and will, but these are tangible examples.

Fun fact:

He's averaging 13+ yards per play on screen passes this year, which is AWESOME, but yet things LIKE this masked Jared Goff's deficiencies as well in L.A. They have a brilliant offensive HC who was able to scheme things open, but when you need an "off script" drive (whether the game plan isn't working, it's a 2 minute or end of game situation, or someone is hurt, etc.), he couldn't deliver.

I DO NOT think Baker is Goff-like, but he needs to prove he can be that "next step" guy. There's still plenty of time left for him to do it, but he needs to show it THIS YEAR IMO.

The thing I think we need to keep in mind is we’re actually having a lot of success offensively.  We’re 6th in scoring and 5th in ypg.  Our losses are both road games to 2 of the maybe 5 top tier teams in the AFC (Bills, Browns, Ravens, Chiefs, Chargers).

[JDD]

2 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

The thing I think we need to keep in mind is we’re actually having a lot of success offensively.  We’re 6th in scoring and 5th in ypg.  Our losses are both road games to 2 of the maybe 5 top tier teams in the AFC (Bills, Browns, Ravens, Chiefs, Chargers).

I feel this is so underrated with our fanbase and the media. The Chargers are playing as good as anyone right now offensively. We watched a coin flip game and lost. I think if you run that game back 10 times its a 5/5 split. We matched their offensive fire power and scored points. It's not like the browns were down 21 and caught up late.

The Bills are playing lights out and the Ravens seem to be in every game because Lamar is doing something every week that makes no sense. So this team can score points without our #1 WR option, the most seasoned guy coming off ACL injury, and both T injured. I'd say this team has a lot to improve but they also are playing at a clip that we have never really seen a Browns team play at. I don't remember at least. 

[MWil23]

2 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Yeah the last couple of drives weren’t great in either game, but I think a lot of the issues get put on one or two guys as opposed to assigning the blame appropriately.

In KC the Schwartz drop, Gilan goof, and Chubb fumble were all as bad or worse than anything Baker and Stefanski did imo. You can’t have that comedy of errors and then blame coaching and the QB.  They were put in good position and didn’t execute basic tasks.  That’s on those players.

No doubt about that. Chubb can't fumble and Gillian can't drop a punt, but when you have an opportunity to tie/win a game despite those factors and then don't execute, that's also proportionate blame. It's certainly not all on him, but the reality of the QB getting most of the credit and most of the blame in those situations is the nature of the beast in the NFL.

2 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Against LAC, the biggest issue I had on the second to last drive was not having Chubb in there.  He was the hot hand, ride it.

100% agreed! I think the 2 platoon RB is a double edged sword for that reason. Granted, Hunt DID score that go ahead TD the drive before (to be fair to Stefanski), and with him on the field, it forces the defense to have to adjust to the threat of Hunt as an out of the backfield pass catching RB...and I think that he was hoping to catch them off guard on 1st and 3rd down by getting a cheap rushing first down as a result (and it backfired).

2 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

In both games the last drive was somewhat hopeless.  Sure, everyone has expectations of winning and such, but let’s be honest.  Driving 70 yards in under 2 min with no timeouts and backup tackles isn’t super likely.  It’s not like they needed a FG, they needed 6. I guess I just can’t bash anyone for not doing something that’s pretty unlikely to begin with.

100% agreed. If it's a 3 point or under game there, blame Baker, but having to get a TD the length of the field with zero timeouts is VERY difficult.

2 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I don’t even know if it’s being gun shy tbh.  It seems like he’s learned the offense is good enough to lean on the backs and be careful with the ball and they’ll put up points.

We’ve gone 3 weeks without a turnover and the two picks he has thrown you live with tbh (a WR not finishing the route/competing for the ball and the QB getting hit/tripped when throwing).

That’s winning football.

I don't disagree with you here; I'm simply saying that PERHAPS not attacking the middle of the field is part of the reason why. PERHAPS not having Jarvis is a reason why. PERHAPS the scheme and game-plan execution has been so good on the screens and outside the numbers (not to mention rushing) that accounts for it as well.

2 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I like using Schwartz tbh. I wouldn’t have him in a ton, but when he’s in, he’s running deep.

I wouldn’t mind seeing a trick play, fleaflicker, etc., to keep the safeties deep.

I wouldn't be opposed to it either, but I'd also like to see someone who is more of an "every down player" be able to fill this void. Maybe that's greedy, but that's just what I believe. It helps that there's not a personnel tell if that's the case.

2 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

The thing I think we need to keep in mind is we’re actually having a lot of success offensively.  We’re 6th in scoring and 5th in ypg.  Our losses are both road games to 2 of the maybe 5 top tier teams in the AFC (Bills, Browns, Ravens, Chiefs, Chargers).

No question about it. The loss to the Chargers is the one that hurts, because it has playoff tie-breaking implications and was essentially stolen from us.

The DEFENSE in these 2 losses is my major concern, and I think it's obvious that Stefanski lacks faith in their ability to get off the field consistently, which is why he's relying so heavily on the running game and eating up time of possession.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

8 minutes ago, JDD said:

I feel this is so underrated with our fanbase and the media. The Chargers are playing as good as anyone right now offensively. We watched a coin flip game and lost. I think if you run that game back 10 times its a 5/5 split. We matched their offensive fire power and scored points. It's not like the browns were down 21 and caught up late.

The Bills are playing lights out and the Ravens seem to be in every game because Lamar is doing something every week that makes no sense. So this team can score points without our #1 WR option, the most seasoned guy coming off ACL injury, and both T injured. I'd say this team has a lot to improve but they also are playing at a clip that we have never really seen a Browns team play at. I don't remember at least. 

I think the fanbase underrates it because most of us haven’t seen a consistently competitive team before.  Or at least since we were in diapers.

Like they could very easily lose on Sunday, and if it doesn’t the sky will start falling for most of the fanbase.  But they could also rip off the next 5 games after that and be just fine. 1-1 over the next week is ok.

[MWil23]

9 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I think the fanbase underrates it because most of us haven’t seen a consistently competitive team before.  Or at least since we were in diapers.

Like they could very easily lose on Sunday, and if it doesn’t the sky will start falling for most of the fanbase.  But they could also rip off the next 5 games after that and be just fine. 1-1 over the next week is ok.

I think that they realistically need to (worst case scenario, putting us at 4-3) beat EITHER Arizona OR Denver in the next 2 game stretch, then win about 4 out of their next 5 headed into the bye after that:

HOME against Pittsburgh

@Cincinatti

@NewEngland (I don't care if that's a tough win or not, you have to beat a rookie QB)

HOME vs. Detroit

@Baltimore on Sunday Night Football

BYE

Worst case scenario, I think you need to come out of that stretch at 8-4. If they're 7-5 or worse, that's a concern IMO.

[mtmmike]

On 10/8/2021 at 6:11 PM, Empire Lies said:

 

That Orangutan is lightyears beyond the level of intelligence of the Tayne-Mike Derp Hive Mind which in and of itself is one mere step above the intelligence level of John Dorsey's sweaty daily sweatshirt 

Why won't you answer mike's questions?

125.00 game

congratulations on criticism of Mayfield.

bring Kizer back.

 

 

 

 

[mtmmike]

On 10/13/2021 at 1:00 PM, Empire Lies said:

@LETSGOBROWNIES

I will grant you the wonders and powers of All-22 this one time you two-timing cheapskate.

Browns definitely got screwed by non-calls or phantom calls, but there were plays to be made on both sides on those final drives.

'

-------------

The NFL finally uploaded the offensive snaps for the Chargers game this morning, but they chopped the endzone view horribly so the sideline view is the only view that can give the objective reality of how plays went.

Simply put, even Baker and the coaches would admit via their review of the final drive that he had some misreads on open and coming open targets of which some of the missed completions required the proper reading of leverage and zones that were missed.

Game Pass' new All-22 is garbage and doesn't make for ease of non-grayscaled light box paused screen shots. Of course, paused screenshots don't always tell the story, but what I'm saying you'd see so yourself that was the reality of how the play actually played out.

Baker played well. The loss is more so on the defensive collapse than Baker for sure and anyone saying otherwise doesn't know game well; however, there were clear plays to be made on that final drive that Baker missed. There's all kinds of rationalizations and explanations that can be given as to why he missed them whether that be he's a human being, he may have been worried about the Tackles, he doesn't trust Odell, he was seeking a DPI to get yardage, his left shoulder, he thought this or that, but that's not central to the fact that there were plays to be made and missed. Even if the plays were made there's no guarantee that the Browns still get a TD but that's neither here nor there.

---------

Final Drive - The Misses:

1.) Miss #1 - 2nd and 4 - Completion to Kareem Hunt on route out the backfield instead of to Higgins on the Deep Post Big Gainer.

Here, Higgins is breaking wide in deep post to the middle of the field with no one in sight inside and the safety 10 yards beyond where Higgins is breaking to.  The underneath slot defender is flat footed, moving forward, and looking back at the QB and Kareem Hunt there's no one else around. Hard to tell the depth perception and what direction the DB was running from this screenshot, but if you saw how the play happened on the All-22 view you'd see that the defender was moving forward and completely a nonfactor out of position looking at Baker and Kareem Hunt. 

That defender wasn't recovering and in position to disrupt the Higgins route (though one could maybe posit that from the screenshot). Relatively easy completion to various ball placements and a lot of run after catch potential even with a floater. If you look at the ALL-22, the leverage pre-snap and zone indicators would suggest that Higgins is going to have room to the inside. And that's confirmed directly after snap by the nickel's eyes and squatting on the underneath leverage. Baker just had to be patient an extra tick or recognize the coverage pre-snap. Baker and the coaches understand that the backup OTs might not hold up but it's highly doubtful imo that the coaching points or even Baker would see this not as a miss.

 

 

2.) Miss #2 - Throw on 2 and 10 to DPJ on a Vertical into Double Coverage leading to Incompletion. Misses a wide open OBJ Underneath who was running wide open for almost entirety and extended period of the route with many safe places to put the ball inside, on him, or out front with some relative run after catch potential. Of course, the rationalization is "He trusts DPJ more than OBJ" or he was looking for a DPI call down the field to get chunk yards or whatever, but I doubt any of the coaching points from Alex Van Pelt or even Baker himself would go in that direction.

 

 

3.) Miss #3 - 3rd and 10 - Misses Njoku on the out and/or OBJ coming open into a big zone on the Incompletion to Higgins on the wheel type route with Schwartz taking the boundary defender on the deep route. Importantly, at no point in Higgins route was there ever any winning leverage for Baker to place the ball. That is, the defender on Higgins was always on top of Higgins the entirety of the route; therefore, the only ball that could've possibly be completed to Higgins would have been a back shoulder toward the sidelines. Instead, Baker throws it more on a line out in front as if it would be a jump ball between Higgins in the defender but the defender was on top of the route and Higgins couldn't ever catch up to that ball. Baker was hoping for the defender on Higgins to bite on the flat route sell and for Schwartz to clear out the other defender but they didn't go for it. As a result, there was plenty of time to throw it OBJ breaking open wide toward the middle of the field or to throw the quick out to Njoku who after the clear out is one on one open toward the sideline.

 

Here's what it looks like as the play progresses

 

Again, further as the play progresses now ball in flight. The leverage throughout the duration of play and the ball thrown all pointed to the ball to Higgins being incomplete. At this point, Njoku and OBJ are decelerated and given up on the routes since the ball is in flight.

 

125 qb ranking I think you are missing.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

1 hour ago, mtmmike said:

125.00 game

congratulations on criticism of Mayfield.

bring Kizer back.

 

 

 

 

 
 

Go easy on him mike 

[mtmmike]

13 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

 
 

Go easy on him mike 

How are you doing getting ready for hunting season here

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

19 minutes ago, mtmmike said:

How are you doing getting ready for hunting season here

I’m great mike, how about you?
 

As far as hunting season, you look to be in peak form with all the bodies you’re dropping around here lately.

[mtmmike]

Just now, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I’m great mike, how about you?
 

As far as hunting season, you look to be in peak form with all the bodies you’re dropping around here lately.

No worries my fantasy team is only winning by 4 games

[Kiwibrown]

...

Edited October 16, 2021 by Kiwibrown

[Empire Lies]

On 10/15/2021 at 10:00 AM, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

In KC the Schwartz drop, Gilan goof, and Chubb fumble were all as bad or worse than anything Baker and Stefanski did imo. You can’t have that comedy of errors and then blame coaching and the QB.  They were put in good position and didn’t execute basic tasks.  That’s on those players.

You forget the flow of the game and inappropriately assign blame in critical moments.

Many bad plays by non-Baker players throughout the game, but there's a reason why QBs get paid the big bucks and that's because despite prior issues, when the game is in the balance and there are plays to be made to win the game late or protect a winning lead the QB is expected to make those plays. Baker didn't. Thus, while he's not the sole reason why the Browns lost and doesn't deserve all the blame, he is critical misses on the final 3 drives were critical determining factors in the loss.

------------

1.) Right Before the Gillan major mistake fumbled punt and while the Browns were still up 29 to 27 this happened the Browns 3rd to last final drive

If Baker makes that routine open throw when he had tons of time instead of dirtballing it short (even Baker said he missed it bad short after the game), the Gillan punt doesn't follow. 

-----------

2.) "The Schwartz Drop" was in reality the "Mayfield Bad Miss" because it's far more reasonable to expect a quality QB to make that throw than it is to expect a WR to make that catch given what happened on the play.

 

On 9/21/2021 at 9:41 AM, Empire Lies said:

2.) Hangs a ball inside to Anthony Schwartz. There was so much room to the sideline to make this throw for what should be a routine relatively easy completion. Baker has a tendency in big moments to hang balls inside. He rushes his footwork and slings it out there with too much air and leaves it inside. Schwartz has to stop his momentum and jump inside with the defender on him fighting for the ball. Schwartz still could've made the catch but it's a tough unnecessary jump ball and the defender never should've had the opportunity to make a play on that ball. That's on Baker.

Any reasonable assessor of that play via the ALL22 would know that the ball thrown was terrible on Mayfield and it would've had to have been an exceptional body contortion catch for Schwartz to come down with it while the DB is raking the ball out.  And it looks worse from the endzone view

Baker not only threw the ball in literally the only spot you can't throw that ball which is inside but he threw the only type of ball you can't throw in that situation which is a late floater into coverage allowing the DB to jump with the WRs for body contorting jump ball while the DB is raking at the ball as the two come down.

Not only does Schwartz have to wait on the ball it's hung so badly inside that the defender is able to make contact with Schwartz arm, ball, and rake across the body as Schwartz has to contort jump into the defender to make the catch. That should've been a routine pitch and catch. To call that a drop.

----

3.) Then Baker throws the ending game INT (he can't get tripped up there; has to find a way to get that ball out of bounds)

Edited October 16, 2021 by Empire Lies