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"FINAL" top-100 mock.


Suffering_Bills
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Absolutely dreadful Steelers pick.  But I have a feeling forcing mediocre QB talents to the Steelers in round 1 is a gonna be a theme in mocks this year.

Give us Kenyon Green.   Hell, Id even take Jahan Dotson over Howell.

PS...this isnt a shot at you.    I just think, AT BEST, there might be one franchise QB in this draft...then a bunch of guys who arent top 50 prospects who will be laughably overdrafted.      I wouldnt draft Howell until the 3rd or 4th.   I know he will go much higher than that, but....I dont care.

Edited by 43M
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Granted, the combo of Tom Telesco and John Spanos can never be underestimated for their ability to make narrow-minded moves, but just going off of past-history of them as a unit and figuring that Staley is going to, almost assuredly, have some reasonable amount of input on anything in particular pertaining to the defense - Jordan Davis is just a bad fit for the Chargers.  Not really your fault, it's the same kind of lazy (I mean that in that people only really graze the surface and don't actually dig deep, mostly because most don't have reason to) projection rampant in the "draft community" this year - it's also how "experts" like Matt Miller are able to stay employed and maintain such a following for as long as they have.

The Chargers have habitually, basically all of Telesco's tenure, identified what the single biggest fault of the previous season's team was and dog-eared that to be address with their 1st round pick.  It's a strategy that can, and in some cases has, worked but it also leaves you exceedingly predictable to other GM's (go back and look at how many times the team has been traded just in front of when the last of the top tier of a known need for them is set to fall in their laps).  Thing is, Staley's defensive scheme is largely something of a run-funnel scheme.  The inability to "stop" the run was, arguably, more of a problem to limit the run they were inviting (Staley did the same thing with the Rams, just the Rams both managed to be slightly better at limiting those rushing attacks while also stumbling for some of the same reasons: Lack of clean tackling by the ILB's, largely).  The Staley/Fangio scheme, just as it isn't a traditional 2-gap 3-4 and is very much and out and out hybrid, has rarely ever used that gargantuan NG that Jordan Davis represents - save for when one has been inherited and they've been made to work with it, and even then they ended up shifting said guy to more of a DE-type role with a 4- or 5-technique assignment in the base formation.  The NG's they work with tend to be middle round, shorter, squat types that are certainly girthy and a load to move, but also aren't largely devoid of pass-rush contribution.  Your Danny Shelton types just plain don't fit; you're looking for more of an Eddie Goldman, Greg Gaines sort.

With that in mind, there's enough turnover on the Chargers defense, that if "run defense" is the identified priority to fix, they may well be better off and find the approach to be in fixing the LB corps (especially when you consider Staley broke into the league as a LB coach).  And in that respect with either of the top two guys available there if they go "off-ball" linebacker (in terms of, non-EDGE).  There's a certain IQ and recognition/adaptability to Devin Lloyd's game that I think Staley could/would find extremely appealing (honestly, not totally dissimilar to Leonard Floyd) and Telesco/Spanos were gaga for Roquan Smith (who ironically ended up going to the staff that Staley was on in Chicago) so if they see similar qualities in Nakobe Dean, I could see that being a direction they lean.

The team is also seeing a fair amount of turnover (pre and free agenting signings/re-signings) on the EDGE, including the potential loss of a starter - while also rather glaringly lacking a ton in the edge-presence when Bosa missed time this past season - so I'd genuinely believe they'd (especially Staley, the analytics type) prioritize drafting an EDGE guy over an NG/NT type.

And honestly, if it weren't for my skepticism of Telesco and that it took him so long until he actually did it last year, with the way the right side of the OL performed in general post-injuries to two guys who may well not be with the team come start of next season, I see an absolute SMASH fit for them in Kenyon Green.  I just can't give Telesco the credit for being likely to recognize it.

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1 hour ago, Dr LBC said:

Granted, the combo of Tom Telesco and John Spanos can never be underestimated for their ability to make narrow-minded moves, but just going off of past-history of them as a unit and figuring that Staley is going to, almost assuredly, have some reasonable amount of input on anything in particular pertaining to the defense - Jordan Davis is just a bad fit for the Chargers.  Not really your fault, it's the same kind of lazy (I mean that in that people only really graze the surface and don't actually dig deep, mostly because most don't have reason to) projection rampant in the "draft community" this year - it's also how "experts" like Matt Miller are able to stay employed and maintain such a following for as long as they have.

The Chargers have habitually, basically all of Telesco's tenure, identified what the single biggest fault of the previous season's team was and dog-eared that to be address with their 1st round pick.  It's a strategy that can, and in some cases has, worked but it also leaves you exceedingly predictable to other GM's (go back and look at how many times the team has been traded just in front of when the last of the top tier of a known need for them is set to fall in their laps).  Thing is, Staley's defensive scheme is largely something of a run-funnel scheme.  The inability to "stop" the run was, arguably, more of a problem to limit the run they were inviting (Staley did the same thing with the Rams, just the Rams both managed to be slightly better at limiting those rushing attacks while also stumbling for some of the same reasons: Lack of clean tackling by the ILB's, largely).  The Staley/Fangio scheme, just as it isn't a traditional 2-gap 3-4 and is very much and out and out hybrid, has rarely ever used that gargantuan NG that Jordan Davis represents - save for when one has been inherited and they've been made to work with it, and even then they ended up shifting said guy to more of a DE-type role with a 4- or 5-technique assignment in the base formation.  The NG's they work with tend to be middle round, shorter, squat types that are certainly girthy and a load to move, but also aren't largely devoid of pass-rush contribution.  Your Danny Shelton types just plain don't fit; you're looking for more of an Eddie Goldman, Greg Gaines sort.

With that in mind, there's enough turnover on the Chargers defense, that if "run defense" is the identified priority to fix, they may well be better off and find the approach to be in fixing the LB corps (especially when you consider Staley broke into the league as a LB coach).  And in that respect with either of the top two guys available there if they go "off-ball" linebacker (in terms of, non-EDGE).  There's a certain IQ and recognition/adaptability to Devin Lloyd's game that I think Staley could/would find extremely appealing (honestly, not totally dissimilar to Leonard Floyd) and Telesco/Spanos were gaga for Roquan Smith (who ironically ended up going to the staff that Staley was on in Chicago) so if they see similar qualities in Nakobe Dean, I could see that being a direction they lean.

The team is also seeing a fair amount of turnover (pre and free agenting signings/re-signings) on the EDGE, including the potential loss of a starter - while also rather glaringly lacking a ton in the edge-presence when Bosa missed time this past season - so I'd genuinely believe they'd (especially Staley, the analytics type) prioritize drafting an EDGE guy over an NG/NT type.

And honestly, if it weren't for my skepticism of Telesco and that it took him so long until he actually did it last year, with the way the right side of the OL performed in general post-injuries to two guys who may well not be with the team come start of next season, I see an absolute SMASH fit for them in Kenyon Green.  I just can't give Telesco the credit for being likely to recognize it.

Very in-depth look, and a good read. Understand your points. However, at the end of the day, one simple fact remains: Davis will take up two blockers on basically every play.

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8 hours ago, 43M said:

Absolutely dreadful Steelers pick.  But I have a feeling forcing mediocre QB talents to the Steelers in round 1 is a gonna be a theme in mocks this year.

Give us Kenyon Green.   Hell, Id even take Jahan Dotson over Howell.

PS...this isnt a shot at you.    I just think, AT BEST, there might be one franchise QB in this draft...then a bunch of guys who arent top 50 prospects who will be laughably overdrafted.      I wouldnt draft Howell until the 3rd or 4th.   I know he will go much higher than that, but....I dont care.

Green, I could understand. Dotson? Meh/nah. Now: When Ben retires after this season, who, as of right now, would be next in line to be your starting QB....?

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1 minute ago, Suffering_Bills said:

Very in-depth look, and a good read. Understand your points. However, at the end of the day, one simple fact remains: Davis will take up two blockers on basically every play.

That's not the design in Staley's scheme, though.  Or at least not from the NG.  And Davis almost for certain isn't getting moved out to the 4-Tech.

Jordan Davis isn't Vita Vea, and the sooner people stop treating him as such it won't be as big of a surprise if/when he goes fairly well outside the Top 20.

And people have been projecting the Chargers in mocks to take "the big NT" in the draft ever since Jamal Williams retired and they've never done it before the 3rd round.  Not sure why anyone would expect that to stop, especially when their HC and DC operate a system that doesn't really call for it.

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4 minutes ago, Suffering_Bills said:

Green, I could understand. Dotson? Meh/nah. Now: When Ben retires after this season, who, as of right now, would be next in line to be your starting QB....?

We will probably get a stopgap vet.  Maybe Jimmy G or Jacoby Brissett.  Im not sure.

The absolute worst thing a QB needy team should ever do is reach on QB in the first round.  As a Bills fan, you should understand this better than most (JP Losman, EJ Manuel).

At best, most of these guys are project QBs, and Im not putting a raw first round rookie behind our garbage OL.

Spend a year correcting some issues on the team.  Then in 2023, start looking for QBotF.

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Just now, 43M said:

We will probably get a stopgap vet.  Maybe Jimmy G or Jacoby Brissett.  Im not sure.

The absolute worst thing a QB needy team should ever do is reach on QB in the first round.  As a Bills fan, you should understand this better than most (JP Losman, EJ Manuel).

At best, most of these guys are project QBs, and Im not putting a raw first round rookie behind our garbage OL.

Spend a year correcting some issues on the team.  Then in 2023, start looking for QBotF.

Oh, the memories.... -Manuel and Losman. THANKS for reminding me. 😆 Anyways, you did at least admit you're not sure about who your QB is going to be. I agree with building up the team, of course, but without a decent QB, the season's basically already a tank, isn't it? That strategy might actually not be bad, because the QB class will be better next draft.

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19 minutes ago, Dr LBC said:

That's not the design in Staley's scheme, though.  Or at least not from the NG.  And Davis almost for certain isn't getting moved out to the 4-Tech.

Jordan Davis isn't Vita Vea, and the sooner people stop treating him as such it won't be as big of a surprise if/when he goes fairly well outside the Top 20.

And people have been projecting the Chargers in mocks to take "the big NT" in the draft ever since Jamal Williams retired and they've never done it before the 3rd round.  Not sure why anyone would expect that to stop, especially when their HC and DC operate a system that doesn't really call for it.

Oh, I don't know.... -sometimes schemes can be adjusted for certain players. I still have to stand by my theory that Davis would improve your run defense.

Edited by Suffering_Bills
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2 hours ago, Dr LBC said:

Granted, the combo of Tom Telesco and John Spanos can never be underestimated for their ability to make narrow-minded moves, but just going off of past-history of them as a unit and figuring that Staley is going to, almost assuredly, have some reasonable amount of input on anything in particular pertaining to the defense - Jordan Davis is just a bad fit for the Chargers.  Not really your fault, it's the same kind of lazy (I mean that in that people only really graze the surface and don't actually dig deep, mostly because most don't have reason to) projection rampant in the "draft community" this year - it's also how "experts" like Matt Miller are able to stay employed and maintain such a following for as long as they have.

The Chargers have habitually, basically all of Telesco's tenure, identified what the single biggest fault of the previous season's team was and dog-eared that to be address with their 1st round pick.  It's a strategy that can, and in some cases has, worked but it also leaves you exceedingly predictable to other GM's (go back and look at how many times the team has been traded just in front of when the last of the top tier of a known need for them is set to fall in their laps).  Thing is, Staley's defensive scheme is largely something of a run-funnel scheme.  The inability to "stop" the run was, arguably, more of a problem to limit the run they were inviting (Staley did the same thing with the Rams, just the Rams both managed to be slightly better at limiting those rushing attacks while also stumbling for some of the same reasons: Lack of clean tackling by the ILB's, largely).  The Staley/Fangio scheme, just as it isn't a traditional 2-gap 3-4 and is very much and out and out hybrid, has rarely ever used that gargantuan NG that Jordan Davis represents - save for when one has been inherited and they've been made to work with it, and even then they ended up shifting said guy to more of a DE-type role with a 4- or 5-technique assignment in the base formation.  The NG's they work with tend to be middle round, shorter, squat types that are certainly girthy and a load to move, but also aren't largely devoid of pass-rush contribution.  Your Danny Shelton types just plain don't fit; you're looking for more of an Eddie Goldman, Greg Gaines sort.

With that in mind, there's enough turnover on the Chargers defense, that if "run defense" is the identified priority to fix, they may well be better off and find the approach to be in fixing the LB corps (especially when you consider Staley broke into the league as a LB coach).  And in that respect with either of the top two guys available there if they go "off-ball" linebacker (in terms of, non-EDGE).  There's a certain IQ and recognition/adaptability to Devin Lloyd's game that I think Staley could/would find extremely appealing (honestly, not totally dissimilar to Leonard Floyd) and Telesco/Spanos were gaga for Roquan Smith (who ironically ended up going to the staff that Staley was on in Chicago) so if they see similar qualities in Nakobe Dean, I could see that being a direction they lean.

The team is also seeing a fair amount of turnover (pre and free agenting signings/re-signings) on the EDGE, including the potential loss of a starter - while also rather glaringly lacking a ton in the edge-presence when Bosa missed time this past season - so I'd genuinely believe they'd (especially Staley, the analytics type) prioritize drafting an EDGE guy over an NG/NT type.

And honestly, if it weren't for my skepticism of Telesco and that it took him so long until he actually did it last year, with the way the right side of the OL performed in general post-injuries to two guys who may well not be with the team come start of next season, I see an absolute SMASH fit for them in Kenyon Green.  I just can't give Telesco the credit for being likely to recognize it.

Actually, you may have convinced me. Look now.

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9 hours ago, 43M said:

Absolutely dreadful Steelers pick.  But I have a feeling forcing mediocre QB talents to the Steelers in round 1 is a gonna be a theme in mocks this year.

Give us Kenyon Green.   Hell, Id even take Jahan Dotson over Howell.

PS...this isnt a shot at you.    I just think, AT BEST, there might be one franchise QB in this draft...then a bunch of guys who arent top 50 prospects who will be laughably overdrafted.      I wouldnt draft Howell until the 3rd or 4th.   I know he will go much higher than that, but....I dont care.

Theoretical question: Now, assuming Green is off the board at #20, who might you prefer between, say, a Trevor Penning or a Darian Kinnard? EDIT: Or maybe a Jordan Davis?

Edited by Suffering_Bills
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For Cleveland - No way they go DL at #13 especially when they can cut Landry and save 15.5 million on cap. The way your draft is going they could pick the #1 WR in the draft. They're not letting Wilson/Williams go. Look for them to draft DL/OL depth in the 3rd/4th. 

For Philly - I'm cool with LB, DL, DB, WR, OL is any order. Also I'd go Olave over Burks because I'm an OSU homer. 

MC

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