Apparition Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 So what do we make of John Harbaugh's extremely aggressive end-of-game strategy against the Steelers 2 weeks ago, and the Packers tonight? Passing up game-tying PAT attempts to try to win it in regulation, and failing twice in three weeks seems unprecedented. Do you like the gamble, or not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeotheLion Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 I liked it both times. Especially if you think you have the weaker team (Steelers one due to in game injuries), why prolong the game as the inferior team? The issue today was I hate the rollout playcall. You cutoff the field and usually eliminate the QB run component because of how long it takes to develop. Huntley was carving them up with his legs. Call a shotgun play and if it's not there you hope he can create. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFlaccoSeagulls Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 (edited) The decisions are good, the execution is bad. That's really all there is to it. Everyone loved it when Lamar was converting them and winning us games. Edited December 20, 2021 by AFlaccoSeagulls 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefer Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Live and die by the sword, would love to see the winning percentage of the teams who aggressively follow analytics. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 yeah watching that game i figured they would get the conversion good call. dont wager on a coin flip 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefer Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Just now, Malfatron said: yeah watching that game i figured they would get the conversion good call. dont wager on a coin flip Put the game into your own hands instead of chance, his former mentor, Reid, is like the exact opposite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DawgX Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 I'm conflicted about them. I love the idea of playing to win and the aggression, but sometimes you have to know when to play a more conservative game. Baltimore's plagued with injuries, so that's the main reason I support them going for it. When you have a depleted roster, going into an extra quarter is far from ideal. However, when you have the greatest kicker of all time, I may take my chances going into OT versus Pittsburgh's offense. As for today... I totally get not liking the idea of going into OT versus Rodgers, especially when you have a bunch of backups in your secondary. However, even if you convert the 2-point conversion, you still are giving the Packers a chance. If there was less than 30 seconds left, I totally support the decision. And if you don't convert like they didn't, then you obviously lose right then and there unless you pull off a successful onside kick. Ultimately, while I totally get both sides of the argument, I slightly lean towards liking the decision to go for it. Plus, I feel like the players will respect you more as a coach that you're showing faith in them to go and win it with one play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mse326 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 For those wondering, like me, he says his decisions are generally gut over analytics. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32906780/john-harbaugh-says-2-point-conversion-call-mostly-gut-decision-ravens-fall-short-again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jameson_Neat Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 If you convert a 2 pt. play on the first TD, then you need a PAT to take the lead. If you fail on the first but convert on the 2nd TD, then you're tied. What the worst that could happen if they failed on two 2 point plays? You lose by one more point? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wackywabbit Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 (edited) I like giving analytics their due attention, but this is not about that. Analytics are based on large amount of data that mushes in and effectively averages different scenarios. You can not talk about Harbaugh's decisions the last two game without starting with and spending most of your attention on the SPECIFIC ways in which this Ravens team has been decimated by injuries. All of those scenarios the analytics are built on and what viewers have observed do not reflect a team that literally had every starter in the secondary (and 6/7 of the cornerbacks on the opening season depth chart) out of the game with Humphrey and then Tavon Young being knocked out in game, meaning their planned schemes were also ruined later in the games. An average team plugged into the analytic models has a 50% chance to win in OT. The Ravens in their condition had significantly less than a 50% chance to win in OT. Going for 2 was the right call both times. Edited December 20, 2021 by wackywabbit 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AngusMcFife Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 I think Harbaugh's main error was not going for two when the Ravens scored their 1st TD in the 4th quarter, when they made the score 23-31. It is pretty well established in the analytics community that this is the proper strategy. Harbaugh has actually done it before, and explained the logic behind it in the postgame press conference (I can't remember the game). Further, Harbaugh's logic going for 2 last week was that was better to go for 2 earlier rather than later so you know where you stand. The other issue I have is that last week when the Ravens went for 2 against Cleveland last week, their play call was... a rollout pass to the right. Roman is literally just spamming the same 2 point play. Being that predictable lowers your chances of converting. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenos Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 43 minutes ago, mse326 said: For those wondering, like me, he says his decisions are generally gut over analytics. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32906780/john-harbaugh-says-2-point-conversion-call-mostly-gut-decision-ravens-fall-short-again Weird. Totally different from two years ago. https://theathletic.com/1396091/2019/11/22/analytical-edge-how-john-harbaugh-and-ravens-have-gained-an-advantage-with-fourth-down-aggressiveness/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nabbs4u Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Imagine had he did the smart thing and taken the easy points kicking a FG that first drive instead of going for it on 4th down? This thread and conversation is most likely mute. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefer Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said: Imagine had he did the smart thing and taken the easy points kicking a FG that first drive instead of going for it on 4th down? This thread and conversation is most likely mute. I hate this thought process, variables change exponentially on any given outcome. What if He kicks the field goal, and then they allow a TD on the ensuing kickoff? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 27 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said: Imagine had he did the smart thing and taken the easy points kicking a FG that first drive instead of going for it on 4th down? This thread and conversation is most likely mute. But with the butterfly effect, who knows? Its a Doggy-dog world and people are trying to make Harbaugh into escape goat. For all intensive purposes it was a good call. Its of the upmost importance that they put their fate in their hands Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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