Do you see what I see?

[Dcash4]

Has this thread talked about George Pickens yet? I had really liked what I had read about him, but admittedly didn’t watch anything myself. And after watching a couple games I have one big question: 

Can he separate? My knee jerk reaction from the couple games I watched was “no”. After checking game logs, I expected to be impressed by the Cinci playoff game but nooo I was not. His chunk yards came on a CB blitz where he got one on one with a S who lost a shoe. His 2-3 other chunk catches were concept Vs zone wins. 

I love his toughness, his blocking ability, his size and his hands look like he was born to catch a football. But I did not like his ability to get away from players. 

Overreaction to small sample size or is this a real cause for concern? I see a better Chase Claypool, more athletic James Washington than I do our next WR stud. 

[turtle28]

1 hour ago, Dcash4 said:

Has this thread talked about George Pickens yet? I had really liked what I had read about him, but admittedly didn’t watch anything myself. And after watching a couple games I have one big question: 

Can he separate? My knee jerk reaction from the couple games I watched was “no”. After checking game logs, I expected to be impressed by the Cinci playoff game but nooo I was not. His chunk yards came on a CB blitz where he got one on one with a S who lost a shoe. His 2-3 other chunk catches were concept Vs zone wins. 

I love his toughness, his blocking ability, his size and his hands look like he was born to catch a football. But I did not like his ability to get away from players. 

Overreaction to small sample size or is this a real cause for concern? I see a better Chase Claypool, more athletic James Washington than I do our next WR stud. 

Pickens is the best WR that Georgia had since AJ Green & he has similar traits. He had s knee injury & missed a lot of turn due to it part of his sophomore & junior years. QB play really affected him as well, if he had gone to Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State or Oklahoma he’d be a top 20 1st round pick.

[MOSteelers56]

34 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Pickens is the best WR that Georgia had since AJ Green & he has similar traits. He had s knee injury & missed a lot of turn due to it part of his sophomore & junior years. QB play really affected him as well, if he had gone to Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State or Oklahoma he’d be a top 20 1st round pick.

I think you’re right. He looked kind of clunky when he came back from the knee, but he was a pretty fluid mover before. I think he’ll be a better pro. 

[Dcash4]

4 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Just prefacing this by saying I’m playing devils advocate here to ask questions to learn rather than defending a side. I’m a pretty open book on Pickens as I haven’t watched a ton myself:

QB play doesn’t play anywhere into what I saw. You can show separation without a QB ever throwing you the ball. Dudes just seem to live in his pocket from what I watched and his plays came on broken plays and zone vs concept. Neither of those are driving forces into liking a dude. If college players should pay rent for time on your hip, the NFL isn’t a place you will thrive. 

I remember watching Claypool and he had Midshipman sticking him. I absolutely LOVE Navy football…but that was telling and should have been a huge red flag against his 40 in shorts. 

The Alabama game post ACL, made sense. The Cinci game last year did not. His stats were nice but if I was a scout that wouldn’t have been a great grade of a game. 

Anyone know who the best CB or DBs he would have played in 2020 would have been? I’d like to watch that game. 

Edited April 17, 2022 by Dcash4
Not sure what happened to my quote, but this was the part I was quoting “QB play really affected him as well, if he had gone to Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State or Oklahoma he’d be a top 20 1st round pick.”

[turtle28]

11 minutes ago, Dcash4 said:

Just prefacing this by saying I’m playing devils advocate here to ask questions to learn rather than defending a side. I’m a pretty open book on Pickens as I haven’t watched a ton myself:

QB play doesn’t play anywhere into what I saw. You can show separation without a QB ever throwing you the ball. Dudes just seem to live in his pocket from what I watched and his plays came on broken plays and zone vs concept. Neither of those are driving forces into liking a dude. If college players should pay rent for time on your hip, the NFL isn’t a place you will thrive. 

I remember watching Claypool and he had Midshipman sticking him. I absolutely LOVE Navy football…but that was telling and should have been a huge red flag against his 40 in shorts. 

The Alabama game post ACL, made sense. The Cinci game last year did not. His stats were nice but if I was a scout that wouldn’t have been a great grade of a game. 

Anyone know who the best CB or DBs he would have played in 2020 would have been? I’d like to watch that game. 

But if he has a knee injury he can’t cut & separate like he usually would and he battled a knee injury the last two years at Georgia. He was more dominant as a freshman than his final 2 years which tells you all you need to know. The knee injury affected his play. The middle of last year he finally got healthy and performed better, helping Georgia win a National Championship.

Edited April 17, 2022 by turtle28

[mwalker]

5 hours ago, Dcash4 said:

Just prefacing this by saying I’m playing devils advocate here to ask questions to learn rather than defending a side. I’m a pretty open book on Pickens as I haven’t watched a ton myself:

QB play doesn’t play anywhere into what I saw. You can show separation without a QB ever throwing you the ball. Dudes just seem to live in his pocket from what I watched and his plays came on broken plays and zone vs concept. Neither of those are driving forces into liking a dude. If college players should pay rent for time on your hip, the NFL isn’t a place you will thrive. 

I remember watching Claypool and he had Midshipman sticking him. I absolutely LOVE Navy football…but that was telling and should have been a huge red flag against his 40 in shorts. 

The Alabama game post ACL, made sense. The Cinci game last year did not. His stats were nice but if I was a scout that wouldn’t have been a great grade of a game. 

Anyone know who the best CB or DBs he would have played in 2020 would have been? I’d like to watch that game. 

I think if Pickens is picked as high as his measure-ables, he could be a bust. He's got great traits, but he has never dominated a season.
I know he's been injured, but I worry about athletes who never dominate. I think any earlier than round 3 or 4 and he has bust potential.
I much prefer Alec Pierce as a big, speed player. He also has the game tape to back up the combine numbers, if we're looking for size/speed.

[Chieferific]

There are a few prospects I've had my eye on that I didn't see much talk about on here.  These are all Middle/Late Rd prospects.  Its a long list but I'd appreciate any thoughts on...

-B. Cook Safety Cinci

-S. Weatherford Safety Miami (OH)

-Cam Taylor-Britt CB Nebraska

-Josh Williams CB Fayetteville ST

-M.Butler DT Tenn

-M. Haskell DT OSU

-J. Ross LB Mich.

 

[MOSteelers56]

15 hours ago, Chieferific said:

M.Butler DT Tenn

-M. Haskell DT OSU

Both give me Javon Hargrave vibes a little. 

[43M]

Just out of curiosity....what do you all see the floors and ceilings being for the notable QBs in this draft?

I know Ive went on and on about how I dont like these QBs, but Im interested to see how some view them.

 

Malik Willis
Floor:  Tim Tebow
Ceiling:  Lamar Jackson

Prediction:  Tyrod Taylor  (Decent Stop Gap player, never a great starter)

 

Kenny Pickett
Floor:  Mitch Trubisky 
Ceiling:  Ryan Tannehill

Prediction:  Carson Wentz (Could see him having fleeting success as a starter, but nothing that lasts.   Ultimately another stopgap/backup)

 

Desmond Ridder
Floor:  Pat White 
Ceiling:  Derek Carr

Prediction:  Geno Smith (Never starter quality, and barely a decent backup, but sticks around because of mobility and luck)

 

Matt Corral
Floor:  Christian Ponder 
Ceiling:  Andy Dalton

Prediction:  Andy Dalton (I dont think he has much range, but I do think he has the best chance to reach his ceiling     Still not worth a first or even second day pick IMO, though)

 

Sam Howell
Floor:  Johnny Manziel (without the off field stuff)
Ceiling:  Baker Mayfield (what we've seen thus far)

Prediction:  Nathan Peterman (Remembered for more bad than good)

 

Carson Strong
Floor:  Blaine Gabbert
Ceiling:  Eli Manning

Prediction:  Josh Freeman or Joe Flacco (call me crazy, but I think he could ultimately end up being the best QB in the draft.    Wouldnt put money on it, though 😎 )

[Dcash4]

7 hours ago, 43M said:

Malik Willis
Floor:  Tim Tebow
Ceiling:  Lamar Jackson

Prediction:  Tyrod Taylor  (Decent Stop Gap player, never a great starter)

Kenny Pickett
Floor:  Mitch Trubisky 
Ceiling:  Ryan Tannehill

Prediction:  Carson Wentz (Could see him having fleeting success as a starter, but nothing that lasts.   Ultimately another stopgap/backup)

Desmond Ridder
Floor:  Pat White 
Ceiling:  Derek Carr

Prediction:  Geno Smith (Never starter quality, and barely a decent backup, but sticks around because of mobility and luck)

Just gonna comment on these three - I really don't enjoy anything about the other ones. 

Willis:

Floor: Jalen Hurts
Ceiling: The Franken-baby of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson

No way Willis floor is Tim Tebow. I get the passing dig, but his running ability is far, far, farfarfarfar greater. That's the part actually I like about Willis -- his floor is NFL usable. Willis legs fall in between Lamar and Hurts. That's baseline NFL top 10 rushing attack. You build around that and if the arm comes through and he progresses like Josh Allen, you have a top 3 offense. But if the arm doesn't progress, his rushing attack can get you by on 4 years of rookie contract with a top NFL rushing game and play really good defense. You are going to win a lot of games and be a playoff contender, probably not a super bowl contender -- but that's why I like him. His floor is a good team, his ceiling is an super-charged elite one. 

Kenny Pickett:

Floor: Andy Dalton
Ceiling: Poor Man's Joe Burrow

I am not the biggest Pickett fan. This can be said about literally everyone QB ever drafted, but his location is going to matter so much. He is not a team maker, but rather an upper level point guard. I thought he had "Saint" written all over him until Sean Payton "retired". The part about him that I do like is that he has that Joe Burrow gamer feature. Joe's biggest play in the playoffs was a 3rd and 8 where he escaped a sack and picked up the first with his legs. Pickett can be a leader, a distributor, and make a play completely off schedule and out of nowhere like a magic man from time to time....but he can't do it on his own -- just like we saw with Andy as his teams talent faded. 

Desmond Ridder:

Floor: Alex Smith's first 6 years in SF (Marcus Mariota)
Ceiling: Alex Smith's 5 years in KC (Dak Prescott)

Ready made leader with the abilities to actually work progression reads today. But I don't know that a team ever rests on his shoulders, like Pickett. But, like, Alex Smith (and every Qb as mentioned...) if he lands at a spot that is going to progress an offense through the run game and play defense (sound familiar?) he can have a lot of success playing point guard, but ALSO having NFL level progression reads when the game script gets knocked off course. But if he has to continually shoulder a load, I see turnovers, sacks, and issues. He is going to do things with the football that wow you throwing all over the map, and follow it up with the WTF moment. Alex Smith also had the mobility, but could never shake the injury bug. He only played 1 season of a full 16 games in his first 6 seasons with SF, missing an entire season. At 6'3, 210....I see some of the same durability concerns. 

I think Alex Smith screams Ridder for comparison, but where I think it might lie is with Mariotta and Prescott. Prescott's super smart and puts his team in the right position to win the play and can make the progression reads and find the right receiver. The athleticism to hurt teams on the ground is there too. That's the ceiling. The floor is an athletic guy who couldn't cut the NFL windows and whose inaccuracies derailed his opportunities. 

Overall thoughts on QB:

I would take Willis in a heartbeat and would tolerate a small, non-2 first round pick trade to go get him. The baseline of a successful NFL team is there with his legs and deep ball and the ceiling is enormous. Ridder, IMO is the only other QB I would take. Wouldn't trade for him though and my stipulation with the team is that they be willing to move on quickly if they feel the guy isn't it or they get a better opportunity in the future (a la the Cards). He can be the mix between a team built around the run with enough NFL passing chops to make his first 5-6 years of cost effectiveness work. After that? Depends on if he hits his ceiling with the mental part of the game -- which he has the tools for. I do not want Kenny Pickett. We are going to be a run focused team over the next 2-3 years, leaning on Harris and the defense and Willis and Ridder fit that model to me. 

[43M]

11 minutes ago, Dcash4 said:

Just gonna comment on these three - I really don't enjoy anything about the other ones. 

Willis:

Floor: Jalen Hurts
Ceiling: The Franken-baby of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson

No way Willis floor is Tim Tebow. I get the passing dig, but his running ability is far, far, farfarfarfar greater.

Good write up overall.

Just to note though...these werent meant to be direct comparisons based on their skillsets, but rather the level of sucess I think they have of attaining.

Jalen Hurts is an adequate comparison, but we still dont know the level of success he will have.    I compared him to Tebow because I think at worst, he could be out of the league in 5 years.   Not saying thats the most likely outcome....but an outcome nonetheless.

And even if Ridders ceiling is/was Alex Smith at his best, I wouldnt take him rd 1.   He needed great teams and coaching around him to have success.   Put him on a team like ours and I dont think thats a notably better option than Trubisky.  I want a franchise QB in round 1.   I never considered Smith a franchise QB.   I considered him solid to good QB you can win with if you have a top 5 to 10 roster.  Even at his best, his shortcomings held his teams back.  Not worth a first rounder IMO.

[jebrick]

To me, Ridder's floor is Leftwich ( yes I am worried that his loopy throwing motion comes back under pressure).

[Dcash4]

1 hour ago, 43M said:

Just to note though...these werent meant to be direct comparisons based on their skillsets, but rather the level of sucess I think they have of attaining.

Ha! Whoops....that makes far more sense now looking back. Oh well, I wanted to make a post about QB's anyway, so let's just count that as it...

1 hour ago, 43M said:

Jalen Hurts is an adequate comparison, but we still dont know the level of success he will have. 

We don't have long term, but looking at what the Eagles and Ravens do as a team is what intrigues my comparison. There are plenty of statistics that show you Philly were a top 1/3rd offense. And that was with their terrible start with Sirianni's confusing play calling before they went heavy run (finished the year 1st in rush yards and rush TDs). I'm not a fan of Hurts as a passer and I don't like much of their passing game targets, but they ranked 9th in success rate last year per play. They were 13th in YPP, and what's really impressive is looking at the teams they rank behind. That's the floor I think you get if you take him. 

1 hour ago, 43M said:

Put him on a team like ours and I dont think thats a notably better option than Trubisky.  I want a franchise QB in round 1.   I never considered Smith a franchise QB.   I considered him solid to good QB you can win with if you have a top 5 to 10 roster.  Even at his best, his shortcomings held his teams back.  Not worth a first rounder IMO.

I think the biggest difference, I think, is that Desmond is ready to play in the NFL, Smith was not. Hence those first awful years. He and Urban helped revolutionize the spread QB, but the NFL was nowhere near adopting that. The NFL is in a much more college QB friendly spot and I think you could get late stage Alex Smith success, but at a rookie contract rate. The ceiling is still Dak, IMO. If his smarts, leadership, and feel of the game evolve further at the Pro level, I think you have a pretty good player. 

Reading more about him, the things that don't show up on tape: Maturity, leadership, coachability, drive, etc...he seems to have that in spades. Guys like that are more likely to hit a ceiling in the right situation than someone I would punt off my draft board like Corral. 

If he was available at 20 and the Steelers passed on him, you wouldn't hear me complain. I do like that he improved every year, played up to the challenges with the small school, has the maturity, confidence, and willingness to improve, and is likely ready to step onto an NFL field today mentally -- a lot like Dak, who is now a top 10 QB. 

But the biggest thing I have learned from this entire QB class is that I am not willing to die on any hill. I enjoy talking about it, but I wouldn't be betting my house on any of these guys. 

[43M]

6 hours ago, Dcash4 said:

I think the biggest difference, I think, is that Desmond is ready to play in the NFL

We all have our unique views and opinions on these players,  so I wont get too deep into this....but I dont think I could possibly disagree with this statement any more.

Quote

But the biggest thing I have learned from this entire QB class is that I am not willing to die on any hill. I enjoy talking about it, but I wouldn't be betting my house on any of these guys. 

For me, I just dont feel like our team is in position to put any of these guys in a position to have success.   I feel like every one of these guys is deeply flawed and need alot of help around them to be successful.    And while there is nothing wrong with guys like that, per se, there is something wrong with overdrafting.   I wouldn't mind some of these guys with our 2nd, 3rd or 4th rd picks....but 1st?   Im looking for difference makers there.   Im looking for a guy who can be at least top 10 at his position for 10 or so years.   It doesn't always work out like that...but I look for guys I STRONGLY believe can be that.

None of these QBs IMO gimme that feeling.   Im sure one of them...maybe 2 could get there....but I dont trust any of them enough to bet the 20th pick that they are going to be better than Trubisky.

I actually agree with a comment @wwhickok made in regards to believing we may very well not be in position to get a top QB next year.   However, I think logic like that can get you into trouble, even if its sound logic.   Forcing picks out of desperation rarely works out.

Im not saying these guys cant have success, but I think there are far better talents to be had at 20 that wont feel like desperation moves.

Edited April 26, 2022 by 43M

[Chieferific]

While all Rookies need developing, 1st Rd picks should not be developmental players regardless of position.