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Let's stop crowning QBs "for the next 10-15 years"


notthatbluestuff

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3 minutes ago, notthatbluestuff said:

As predicted, everyone is going to deny that they ever thought Goff was any good. Let's take a trip back in time to 2018, shall we? 

https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/14385-how-good-is-jared-goff/

Some highlights from the first page alone (I'll leave usernames out, I'm not interested in calling anyone out): 

Only Rams fans, eh? We as football fans get WAY too excited about QBs these days. I'm not saying Mahomes, Burrow, Lamar, Allen, Herbert, or anyone else CAN'T be great over the next 15 years - I'm just saying let's cool it on the "they'll dominate for the next decade-plus" talk. 

You’re 100% right. But Goff was getting better and better. Looking back at him

now he was basically a better Jake Plummer.. Will kill off of the bootleg. But when the Oline and Run game went down! My dawg lost power! Simply couldn’t make the throws under pressure and crumbled. Made some of the most bizarre INTS I’ve ever seen! Game the Niners 4 easy dubs because of him. 

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Just now, El Ramster said:

You’re 100% right. But Goff was getting better and better. Looking back at him

Yes, exactly, but my point is that it's all too easy to see a young QB who's playing really well and project that he will only continue to improve. QB development isn't linear and depends on so many other facets working out. We simply don't know what's going to happen in 3 years, as this 3-year-old thread shows. So why crown any QB for the next 10 or 15? No matter WHO they are! 

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1 minute ago, notthatbluestuff said:

Yes, exactly, but my point is that it's all too easy to see a young QB who's playing really well and project that he will only continue to improve. QB development isn't linear and depends on so many other facets working out. We simply don't know what's going to happen in 3 years, as this 3-year-old thread shows. So why crown any QB for the next 10 or 15? No matter WHO they are! 

I feel you. But Zac isn’t close to the coach Mcvay is. Mcvay is a prodigy and if Burrow had Mcvay who knows how’ll good he’ll be atm. I think Burrow is one of those dudes who makes his team better. Much like garbage WRs in Indy we’re killing it with Manning. I know it’s early and you’re right’ but i love me some Burrow. We shall sit and wait! For my sake I hope you’re right and he’s as Sunday the 13. 

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AFC East:
Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa - New regime should stick with him and tailor a WC offense to his strengths, i'm still a Tua believer
Patriots: Mac Jones - Very good rookie year, still not sold on his long term upside though
Bills: Josh Allen - Elite
Jets: Zach Wilson - Rough rough rookie year, but not the best situation either, stay the course for now

AFC North:
Bengals: Joe Burrow - All set
Browns: Baker Mayfield - Entering 4th year, lots of questions, maybe the guy, but a lot to prove
Ravens: Lamar Jackson - All set as long as he stays healthy, always that worry when you run as much as he does
Steelers: Mason Rudolph (Dwayne Haskins) - Yikes, Draft, trade or FA incoming

AFC South: 
Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence - Had a rough year, but you saw the flashes, definitely stick with another couple years at least, new regime likely helps
Colts: Carson Wentz - Solid but is he the guy to get you over?
Texans: Davis Mills (Deshaun Watson) - Had a solid rookie season when he played. I'd trade Watson and see what you have in a full season next year.
Titans: Ryan Tannehill - Better than Wentz, but same question, can he win you a super bowl?

AFC West: 
Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes - Elite
Broncos: Teddy Bridgewater - Same category as Wentz, a solid NFL QB, would be leagues best backup, but not a guy you are winning with in a meaningful way
Chargers: Justin Herbert - All set
Raiders: Derek Carr - I'd have him above Wentz and Tannehill, but not amongst the elite either

NFC East: 
Cowboys: Dak Prescott - I think they can contend for the big one with Dak, but his prime is now
Eagles: Jalen Hurts - I'm not sold on Hurts, i'd be looking still if i'm the Eagles
Commanders: Taylor Heinicke - Same category as Wentz, but probably below Wentz
Giants: Daniel Jones - Not a believer at all, Giants need to move on, but it is likely better to wait to 2023 to draft a new QB given this years weak class

NFC North: 
Packers: Aaron Rodgers (Jordan Love) - If Rodgers is gone, have to at least see what you have in Love, for now Rodgers is still there, and he's elite.
Bears: Justin Fields - Needs a much better situation in year 2, but he should absolutely be their starter in 2022
Lions: Jared Goff - Heinicke plus?
Vikings: Kirk Cousins - Probably not worth his contract, but you can't really replace him without a proven better option

NFC South: 
Saints: Jameis Winston (Taysom Hill) - They should be looking. New staff should end the Taysom Hill experiment at QB, and try to improve on Jameis, maybe wait until 2023
Bucs: Kyle Trask (Blaine Gabbert) - Well, I guess roll with Trask this year and see what he is, but they are also losing other weapons.  2021 SB victory made it all worth it though
Panthers: Sam Darnold - Need an upgrade pretty bad
Falcons: Matt Ryan - Need to start that succession plan, Ryan is close to cooked and the contract issues lessen each year.

NFC West: 
49ers: Jimmy Garoppolo (Trey Lance) - Pretty clear Jimmy isn't that dude but he's solid (Wentz tier), time to see what Lance is and get the highest pick you can for Jimmy
Seahawks: Russell Wilson - Had a bad year, but i'd stay the course for now. Fell from elite tier though.
Rams: Matthew Stafford - All set, close to or in elite tier right now even if his situation is ideal, he performed.
Cardinals: Kyler Murray - Electric at times, but two straight end of season collapses have the whispers going

Top 10:

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Patrick Mahomes
3. Josh Allen
4. Joe Burrow
5. Justin Herbert
6. Lamar Jackson
7. Matt Stafford
8. Dak Prescott
9. Russell Wilson
10. Derek Carr

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On 2/1/2022 at 9:51 AM, El Ramster said:

Dude I’m so happy you’re here. When brees retired I thought you left me! Don’t ever leave me again. 

Lol! I've never been that frequent a poster haha. But I'll definitely have to go on hiatus if your Rams take the super bowl next week -- not sure I or anyone else here can handle your... fervor 😉. Fr though best of luck with your squad. Happy for my guy Stafford, always liked him and wished he could have some better teams to play with.   

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10 hours ago, THE DUKE said:

AFC East:
Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa - New regime should stick with him and tailor a WC offense to his strengths, i'm still a Tua believer
Patriots: Mac Jones - Very good rookie year, still not sold on his long term upside though
Bills: Josh Allen - Elite
Jets: Zach Wilson - Rough rough rookie year, but not the best situation either, stay the course for now

AFC North:
Bengals: Joe Burrow - All set
Browns: Baker Mayfield - Entering 4th year, lots of questions, maybe the guy, but a lot to prove
Ravens: Lamar Jackson - All set as long as he stays healthy, always that worry when you run as much as he does
Steelers: Mason Rudolph (Dwayne Haskins) - Yikes, Draft, trade or FA incoming

AFC South: 
Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence - Had a rough year, but you saw the flashes, definitely stick with another couple years at least, new regime likely helps
Colts: Carson Wentz - Solid but is he the guy to get you over?
Texans: Davis Mills (Deshaun Watson) - Had a solid rookie season when he played. I'd trade Watson and see what you have in a full season next year.
Titans: Ryan Tannehill - Better than Wentz, but same question, can he win you a super bowl?

AFC West: 
Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes - Elite
Broncos: Teddy Bridgewater - Same category as Wentz, a solid NFL QB, would be leagues best backup, but not a guy you are winning with in a meaningful way
Chargers: Justin Herbert - All set
Raiders: Derek Carr - I'd have him above Wentz and Tannehill, but not amongst the elite either

NFC East: 
Cowboys: Dak Prescott - I think they can contend for the big one with Dak, but his prime is now
Eagles: Jalen Hurts - I'm not sold on Hurts, i'd be looking still if i'm the Eagles
Commanders: Taylor Heinicke - Same category as Wentz, but probably below Wentz
Giants: Daniel Jones - Not a believer at all, Giants need to move on, but it is likely better to wait to 2023 to draft a new QB given this years weak class

NFC North: 
Packers: Aaron Rodgers (Jordan Love) - If Rodgers is gone, have to at least see what you have in Love, for now Rodgers is still there, and he's elite.
Bears: Justin Fields - Needs a much better situation in year 2, but he should absolutely be their starter in 2022
Lions: Jared Goff - Heinicke plus?
Vikings: Kirk Cousins - Probably not worth his contract, but you can't really replace him without a proven better option

NFC South: 
Saints: Jameis Winston (Taysom Hill) - They should be looking. New staff should end the Taysom Hill experiment at QB, and try to improve on Jameis, maybe wait until 2023
Bucs: Kyle Trask (Blaine Gabbert) - Well, I guess roll with Trask this year and see what he is, but they are also losing other weapons.  2021 SB victory made it all worth it though
Panthers: Sam Darnold - Need an upgrade pretty bad
Falcons: Matt Ryan - Need to start that succession plan, Ryan is close to cooked and the contract issues lessen each year.

NFC West: 
49ers: Jimmy Garoppolo (Trey Lance) - Pretty clear Jimmy isn't that dude but he's solid (Wentz tier), time to see what Lance is and get the highest pick you can for Jimmy
Seahawks: Russell Wilson - Had a bad year, but i'd stay the course for now. Fell from elite tier though.
Rams: Matthew Stafford - All set, close to or in elite tier right now even if his situation is ideal, he performed.
Cardinals: Kyler Murray - Electric at times, but two straight end of season collapses have the whispers going

Top 10:

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Patrick Mahomes
3. Josh Allen
4. Joe Burrow
5. Justin Herbert
6. Lamar Jackson
7. Matt Stafford
8. Dak Prescott
9. Russell Wilson
10. Derek Carr

 

 

What's your top 10 logic there?

For Burrow and Herbert to be that high, you must be weighing this season VERY heavily, which means Stafford would be above Lamar Jackson. And if we're being honest, Burrow, Herbert and Stafford would all be above Josh Allen too just going off this year.

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On 2/2/2022 at 9:44 AM, THE DUKE said:

AFC East:
Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa - New regime should stick with him and tailor a WC offense to his strengths, i'm still a Tua believer
Patriots: Mac Jones - Very good rookie year, still not sold on his long term upside though
Bills: Josh Allen - Elite
Jets: Zach Wilson - Rough rough rookie year, but not the best situation either, stay the course for now

AFC North:
Bengals: Joe Burrow - All set
Browns: Baker Mayfield - Entering 4th year, lots of questions, maybe the guy, but a lot to prove
Ravens: Lamar Jackson - All set as long as he stays healthy, always that worry when you run as much as he does
Steelers: Mason Rudolph (Dwayne Haskins) - Yikes, Draft, trade or FA incoming

AFC South: 
Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence - Had a rough year, but you saw the flashes, definitely stick with another couple years at least, new regime likely helps
Colts: Carson Wentz - Solid but is he the guy to get you over?
Texans: Davis Mills (Deshaun Watson) - Had a solid rookie season when he played. I'd trade Watson and see what you have in a full season next year.
Titans: Ryan Tannehill - Better than Wentz, but same question, can he win you a super bowl?

AFC West: 
Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes - Elite
Broncos: Teddy Bridgewater - Same category as Wentz, a solid NFL QB, would be leagues best backup, but not a guy you are winning with in a meaningful way
Chargers: Justin Herbert - All set
Raiders: Derek Carr - I'd have him above Wentz and Tannehill, but not amongst the elite either

NFC East: 
Cowboys: Dak Prescott - I think they can contend for the big one with Dak, but his prime is now
Eagles: Jalen Hurts - I'm not sold on Hurts, i'd be looking still if i'm the Eagles
Commanders: Taylor Heinicke - Same category as Wentz, but probably below Wentz
Giants: Daniel Jones - Not a believer at all, Giants need to move on, but it is likely better to wait to 2023 to draft a new QB given this years weak class

NFC North: 
Packers: Aaron Rodgers (Jordan Love) - If Rodgers is gone, have to at least see what you have in Love, for now Rodgers is still there, and he's elite.
Bears: Justin Fields - Needs a much better situation in year 2, but he should absolutely be their starter in 2022
Lions: Jared Goff - Heinicke plus?
Vikings: Kirk Cousins - Probably not worth his contract, but you can't really replace him without a proven better option

NFC South: 
Saints: Jameis Winston (Taysom Hill) - They should be looking. New staff should end the Taysom Hill experiment at QB, and try to improve on Jameis, maybe wait until 2023
Bucs: Kyle Trask (Blaine Gabbert) - Well, I guess roll with Trask this year and see what he is, but they are also losing other weapons.  2021 SB victory made it all worth it though
Panthers: Sam Darnold - Need an upgrade pretty bad
Falcons: Matt Ryan - Need to start that succession plan, Ryan is close to cooked and the contract issues lessen each year.

NFC West: 
49ers: Jimmy Garoppolo (Trey Lance) - Pretty clear Jimmy isn't that dude but he's solid (Wentz tier), time to see what Lance is and get the highest pick you can for Jimmy
Seahawks: Russell Wilson - Had a bad year, but i'd stay the course for now. Fell from elite tier though.
Rams: Matthew Stafford - All set, close to or in elite tier right now even if his situation is ideal, he performed.
Cardinals: Kyler Murray - Electric at times, but two straight end of season collapses have the whispers going

Top 10:

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Patrick Mahomes
3. Josh Allen
4. Joe Burrow
5. Justin Herbert
6. Lamar Jackson
7. Matt Stafford
8. Dak Prescott
9. Russell Wilson
10. Derek Carr

That's a really good list. I'd flip Herbert and Burrow, but realistically Burrow and Herbert are in a similar tier which, in my mind, is slightly ahead of Lamar but, on the flip side, I feel like I'm using the 'what have you done for me lately mindset' when making that statement. Lamar is a beast when healthy AND when he has a healthy roster. 

I put Allen slightly ahead of Burrow and Herbert due to playing elite for two seasons now + Allen is really becoming a big game QB. He plays his best in the biggest games of the year. That's a quality you can't teach, and I haven't seen that as consistently from Burrow yet (especially these playoffs). Herbert vs LVR showed that poise but, again, he hasn't had the opportunities to showcase that quality yet. Once Burrow and Herbert show they can be killers in big time games- they'll be on par w/ Allen (unless Allen regresses).

Edited by WizeGuy
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17 hours ago, FrantikRam said:

 

 

What's your top 10 logic there?

For Burrow and Herbert to be that high, you must be weighing this season VERY heavily, which means Stafford would be above Lamar Jackson. And if we're being honest, Burrow, Herbert and Stafford would all be above Josh Allen too just going off this year.

Not if you're including the playoffs they aren't, but yeah- Allen had some down games during the regular season but comparing his home and away stats are very telling. The weather was AWFUL during some of his down games.

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My list is how I see the NFL QB's going forward.  Honestly, Carr making the top 10 surprised me, but there are a lot of crappy QB situations in the NFL right now, especially with the exodus of Brady/Brees/Roethlisberger/Rivers the past couple of years.  Even with the recent influx of QB talent, the league desperately needs more, and I don't see it from the 2022 class.  Rodgers is nearing the end, Wilson could maybe be on the decline (don't count him out yet though), and who knows what's going on with Watson.

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27 minutes ago, WizeGuy said:

Not if you're including the playoffs they aren't, but yeah- Allen had some down games during the regular season but comparing his home and away stats are very telling. The weather was AWFUL during some of his down games.

 

Even if you include playoffs he was well behind those three this season.

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5 minutes ago, FrantikRam said:

 

Even if you include playoffs he was well behind those three this season.

What in the world are you talking about?

Allen had 400 more total yards than Burrow, 6 more touchdowns than Burrow, a higher QBR and a better record. Then the playoff performances are even better, if I added those in the gap would be bigger. 

Stafford isn't close to Allen imo. 

Herbert can make an argument but the combination of allens arm and rushing ability trumps it for me. 

 

EDIT: with the post season included. Allen had 11 more touchdowns then Burrow and a better QBR and more yards. Just because Burrow made the SB doesn't mean he's better than Allen lol. The Bills defense, coaching with 13 seconds and OT rules are the reason he got bounced. 

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