Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2022 (All Up)

[MWil23]

13 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

27. Cleveland Browns

TBH, I wouldn't have complained if you had Cleveland lower. I get that it's a "eat your vitamins and drink your milk" depth draft, but I thought they missed out on some real potential value in places.

13 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

This Class In One Sentence:

A haul of maybes in a year where a certain free agency addition was the headline act in Cleveland

Pre-Draft Needs

DT, EDGE, WR, S, LB

I guess evaluating the needs in light of who was there and who we got, it's hard to really "love" this draft for me if you're projecting starters. I'll explain here in a minute.

13 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Selections

Round 3 68. Martin Emerson  | CB | Mississippi State

A real head scratcher here, even with the Troy Hill trade. While some had Emerson rated as high as the mid 30's, most had him between 95-120. Aside from the whole "value" question, my real issue with him is that he's exclusively going to be an outside CB with man/press man and Cover 3 ability. While that absolutely is a great fit for Cleveland's scheme, they just inked Denzel Ward to a huge deal and drafted Newsome, who had a fantastic rookie year last year in the first round. Both of them are outside guys who excel...so unless they plan on moving Newsome situationally to the slot (I doubt it), this is purely a depth guy.

IMO, they should have stayed put at 44 and drafted Metchie at WR, fitting their biggest need.

13 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Round 3 78. Alex Wright  | DE | UAB

No complaints here for Wright, but I didn't love it. A 3rd/4th EDGE rush guy who is a raw project. However, if I'm the Browns, I'm absolutely running to the podium to grab a falling Dean. You have an opportunity to grab a 1st Round talent in the 3rd and fill a need. Pairing him with JOK gives you one of the most athletic nickel LB packages in the league, and with Woods's big nickel/small nickel scheme that likes to utilize a corner or a 3rd safety in the slot, that gives you a lot in coverage, sideline to sideline ability, and varied pass rush looks.

13 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Round 3 99. David Bell  | WR | Purdue

If the Browns stay put and take Metchie here, it's a "wash". I think Bell will actually step in and do fine in the slot, but with his testing metrics, that's about all he'll be able to do. Metchie could have stepped in that same role, and with his edge athletically, he has the possibility of giving you something on the outside as well. Bell will be much more limited to the slot.

13 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Round 4 108. Perrion Winfrey  | DT | Oklahoma

Love the pick

13 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Round 4 124. Cade York  | K | LSU

If he pans out it'll be great. Their kicking situation has been a disaster since Phil Dawson left.

13 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Round 5 156. Jerome Ford  | RB | Cincinnati

I love him, GREAT value. What's interesting to me is that they tendered D'Ernest Johnson and have Chubb/Hunt. This could be foreshadowing about a Hunt trade (unlikely), but it is definitively foreshadowing that Hunt is gone after this year IMO.

13 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Round 6 202. Michael Woods II  | WR | Oklahoma

Round 7 223. Isaiah Thomas  | DE | Oklahoma

Round 7 246. Dawson Deaton  | C | Texas Tech

Frankly I'd be shocked if any of these 3 make the team. Likely practice squad guys. 

13 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

What I liked:

With no first or second round selections, I like that the Browns still took nine whole swings on some maybe players. That's playing the game right. The first four selections all have stuff to like, if not fall in love with. Emerson is a lengthy press-man corner with some ability. Winfrey is super-explosive, but his tape is weird. Bell’s lack of threshold-meeting athleticism is a real concern, but man he was such a good college receiver to not think ‘maybe he just has a knack for getting open?' Is that just a thing you can't accurately measure? Who knows. Isaiah Thomas in the 7^th is interesting too. 

What I didn’t like:

I mean, it’s a draft with no headline act and there’s a few of those this year – probably more than in most years with some franchises now more willing to pay expensive draft capital which was once heresy. I don’t particularly dislike the class for that reason, there’s just not much to hang your hat on. Whilst the Browns FO have hedged well with volume, if most or all of these guys were to flame out, it wouldn’t be a shock.  

Also, a 4^th round kicker? Okay. Super weird that we heard so much about the Punt God and he got so badly out drafted by other kickers and punters. Funny, really.

For me, I'll be keeping an eye on:

*Metchie

*Dean

and how they stack up against:

*Wright

*Emerson

*Winfrey

*York

I get the draft and analytics say that more chances equals a higher rate of return, but I can't help but disagree in these two instances. On a roster that supposedly says "We are going all in on contending", I don't think some of these guys make the team and I personally would rather take some big swings on guys with medical questions and hope 1-2 of them stick and give you that 1st Round value.

JMHO

 

 

[THE DUKE]

I think the Commanders bottom 4 picks might actually out produce their first four picks.

[THE DUKE]

1 minute ago, MWil23 said:

A real head scratcher here, even with the Troy Hill trade. While some had Emerson rated as high as the mid 30's, most had him between 95-120. Aside from the whole "value" question, my real issue with him is that he's exclusively going to be an outside CB with man/press man and Cover 3 ability. While that absolutely is a great fit for Cleveland's scheme, they just inked Denzel Ward to a huge deal and drafted Newsome, who had a fantastic rookie year last year in the first round. Both of them are outside guys who excel...so unless they plan on moving Newsome situationally to the slot (I doubt it), this is purely a depth guy.

Quality depth is important, the odds that both your boundary CB's play 17 regular season games this year isn't close to 100%, which i'd say about any team.  In the third value, a 3rd outside CB with upside is a good pick.  I didn't have Emerson in the 30's, but I thought anytime after 50 for him would be acceptable.  In the 60's seems about right to me.

[candyman93]

For Cleveland, we had to draft depth because we’re going to start losing guys. We locked up our franchise players, but we’re going to lose guys like Jack Conklin (his is more injury related) and Kareem Hunt.

 

I loved drafting York and Winfrey. Rest of the draft was mehhh. I bet they both start day 1.

 

Good write up as always!

Edited May 3, 2022 by candyman93

[MikeT14]

Womp. Didn't expect to be Top 15 but not 26th. 

[MWil23]

35 minutes ago, THE DUKE said:

Quality depth is important, the odds that both your boundary CB's play 17 regular season games this year isn't close to 100%, which i'd say about any team.  In the third value, a 3rd outside CB with upside is a good pick.  I didn't have Emerson in the 30's, but I thought anytime after 50 for him would be acceptable.  In the 60's seems about right to me.

I guess I should also add that Greedy Williams is currently our 3rd corner and had a great year last year (outside and slot). A.J. Green had a FANTASTIC year in limited action (86.2 PFF grade) as both an outside and a slot.

I'd argue they already have quality depth. Granted, Greedy is probably gone next year (free agency), but even still, best case scenario unless he lights it up he's the 5th dude this year.

[THE DUKE]

3 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

I guess I should also add that Greedy Williams is currently our 3rd corner and had a great year last year (outside and slot). A.J. Green had a FANTASTIC year in limited action (86.2 PFF grade) as both an outside and a slot.

I'd argue they already have quality depth. Granted, Greedy is probably gone next year (free agency), but even still, best case scenario unless he lights it up he's the 5th dude this year.

CB's and Edge rushers, can never have too many, especially in a division with Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson............and Kenny Pickett

[Matts4313]

31 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

Womp. Didn't expect to be Top 15 but not 26th. 

Is this a way of saying you think you are ~5-6 spots to low? Is that fair, ~20ish?

[MikeT14]

2 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

Is this a way of saying you think you are ~5-6 spots to low? Is that fair, ~20ish?

I think so, yes. I'm not sitting here trying to stomp my feet about it, I just think that 18-22 range was closer to the place. But it's speculative anyway. Some people do have us bottom 6, and others have had us Top 15. I agree with neither lol. 

[MWil23]

42 minutes ago, THE DUKE said:

CB's and Edge rushers, can never have too many, especially in a division with Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson............and Kenny Pickett

I get to a degree the Emerson pick is them looking forward to 2023 and beyond after Greedy leaves (likely), but with those other 4 guys I mentioned at CB to go with JJ3, Delpit, and Ronnie Harrison, I think LB and WR reach a higher threshold of need and value.

JMHO

[Raves]

19 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

28. New Orleans Saints

 

This Class In One Sentence:

An absolute master-class in mishandling draft capital

Pre-Draft Needs

OT, S, WR, G, CB

Selections

Round 1. 11. Chris Olave  | WR | Ohio State

Round 1. 19. Trevor Penning  | OT | Northern Iowa

Round 2. 49. Alontae Taylor  | CB | Tennessee

Round 5. 161. D'Marco Jackson  | LB | Appalachian State

Round 6. 194. Jordan Jackson  | DT | Air Force

Round 6 – Forfeited for being tricksy lads

What I liked:

Man, I like Chris Olave. I’m not sure I loved him at 11, given that he’s probably a really good complimentary piece rather than a feature receiver which is what he’ll be in NO with Michael Thomas coming back. But man, he’s super smooth and cerebral – and will definitely make this team better on offense. Also check out Chris Olave's Dad if you haven't seen it already, absolutely extraordinary. 

D'Marco Jackson is pretty decent.

What I didn’t like:

Man, nobody cares less about draft value than Loomis – draft picks burn chasms in this guy’s pockets. The super-weird trade that brought them two first rounders and nothing in 2023, for what will probably be a better class, already looked like a bad idea. This front office rockets into every draft like they are one pick away from a Super Bowl. I’d be overjoyed if I was a GM looking to trade out and that guy was on the line in a panic to blow everything. What was going on in that man’s mind in the first round? Did he have a dinner date with his wife and forgot it was the NFL Draft? ‘We have a another first round pick!? Why didn’t you guys tell me!?’ And I don’t like that Loomis has forced me to crap on a class which features Chris Olave. I love Olave.

I didn’t like the Penning pick, because he isn’t good (right now). He tested incredibly and it was well accepted he would go first round because apparently the league loves linemen who start fights at the Senior Bowl, but he has a ways to go as a pass-blocker before he'll lock down that vacant left tackle spot. Alontae Taylor wasn’t a top 50 pick in this class, even with DB’s flying off the board. He’s fine, but nothing more than that. Just very odd, it's all so frantic and odd. 

So what makes next year's draft class better?  There being potentially legit franchise QBs that you have to be really bad to be in range to get?  Pretty sure the WR and OT talent in next year's draft isn't going to be drastically different than this years, at least not where the Saints are likely expected to be drafting considering they were 5-2 with Winston as a starter this past year prior to him getting hurt when they didn't have CGM for a single down or a WR close to Olave's level playing.

Even the trades are more reasonable when you actually view them as closer representations to what they would've been if the Saints hadn't made the early trade with the Eagles:

#18, #98, #101, #120 for #11 (Saints win the value for this trade by trade chart)

'23 1st, '24 2nd for #19 (the Saints trade into the 1st without giving up any draft capital in the same draft, it's gonna seem like a lot but its' really not)

So they underpaid the cost to move up from their original draft position to get their preferred WR target and then decided to address their OT need in this draft using their 1st next year and paying an even further deferred second.  I mean if the Saints were to go into this season without Penning at OT where they can start developing him immediately for the long haul and instead found a respectable veteran at a small/single year contract, do you really think they'd be bad enough to guarantee an OT prospect with as much talent/upside as what Penning has in next years draft, who'd they then would need to start the development process with next year rather than this year.

[Ray Reed]

3 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

That suit...

Hi Ronald McDonald

[goldfishwars]

45 minutes ago, Raves said:

So what makes next year's draft class better?  There being potentially legit franchise QBs that you have to be really bad to be in range to get?  Pretty sure the WR and OT talent in next year's draft isn't going to be drastically different than this years, at least not where the Saints are likely expected to be drafting considering they were 5-2 with Winston as a starter this past year prior to him getting hurt when they didn't have CGM for a single down or a WR close to Olave's level playing.

Even the trades are more reasonable when you actually view them as closer representations to what they would've been if the Saints hadn't made the early trade with the Eagles:

#18, #98, #101, #120 for #11 (Saints win the value for this trade by trade chart)

'23 1st, '24 2nd for #19 (the Saints trade into the 1st without giving up any draft capital in the same draft, it's gonna seem like a lot but its' really not)

So they underpaid the cost to move up from their original draft position to get their preferred WR target and then decided to address their OT need in this draft using their 1st next year and paying an even further deferred second.  I mean if the Saints were to go into this season without Penning at OT where they can start developing him immediately for the long haul and instead found a respectable veteran at a small/single year contract, do you really think they'd be bad enough to guarantee an OT prospect with as much talent/upside as what Penning has in next years draft, who'd they then would need to start the development process with next year rather than this year.

I've got to be honest, I don't understand how argument justifies spending a bunch of picks on a receiver few saw as a can't-miss prospect and a tackle few saw as ready to play now. That's a lot of eggs in the basket of two players, what if one or both don't pan-out? And for what? What even are the Saints this year? A contender? 

[Raves]

Just now, goldfishwars said:

I've got to be honest, I don't understand how argument justifies spending a bunch of picks on a receiver few saw as a can't-miss prospect and a tackle few saw as ready to play now. That's a lot of eggs in the basket of two players, what if one or both don't pan-out? And for what? What even are the Saints this year? A contender? 

I would say that Olave is a can't-miss prospect, at least in regards to him not being a bust.  Williams, Burks, etc that went afterwards might have more upside but they also had a lot more flaws.  Olave is super smooth, elite route runner, and has shown the ability to beat press coverage.  Those will all translate into a long successful career for him in the NFL.  Also those picks were all more or less 4th rounders in regards to moving up from 18 to 11 when looking at the trades objectively which the Saints are already pretty much locked in on their roster that they likely wouldn't have made the cut anyways.  I think Olave will start off with having similar/better production than Calvin Ridley did without the personal issues.

As for Penning, yeah he has some issues but they needed an OT this year regardless.  They could've not given up the '23 1st and '24 2nd to wait till next year to draft an OT, who likely still wouldn't be ready to play now after getting an adequate guard to push Peat to LT or an adequate LT to run out the season where if they are healthier than last year would likely end in at least a first round playoff game.  Or they can get a guy they know has the tools and needs to develop a year earlier than expected and have him ready in year 2/3 to make a real push at a title.  The Saints cap situation will be improved as they are already resolving nearly 30 million of the dead cap they had been rolling down the hill this year with Armstead, Brees, and others coming off the books.

So to answer, this year, they'll be a playoff team and a dark horse contender depending mostly on the team staying healthy, they were among the teams most devastated by injuries in both the number of games lost and potential wins lost, and if/when/how long Kamara is suspended/out.

[goldfishwars]

25. Chicago Bears

This Class In One Sentence:

A bad football team with a franchise QB struggling to get better, but valiantly trying anyway

Pre-Draft Needs

OT, WR, G, C, EDGE

Selections

Round 2. 39. Kyler Gordon  | CB | Washington

Round 2. 48. Jaquan Brisker  | S | Penn State

Round 3. 71. Velus Jones Jr.  | WR | Tennessee

Round 5. 168. Braxton Jones  | OT | Southern Utah

Round 5. 174. Dominique Robinson  | DE | Miami (OH)

Round 6. 186. Zachary Thomas  | OT | San Diego State

Round 6. 203. Trestan Ebner  | RB | Baylor

Round 6. 207. Doug Kramer  | C | Illinois

Round 7. 226. Ja'Tyre Carter  | OG | Southern

Round 7. 254. Elijah Hicks  | S | California

Round 7. 255. Trenton Gill  | P | NC State

 

What I liked:

It was a pragmatic attempt to fill a bleak roster with good players, rather than focus solely on what Justin Fields needs to succeed. Ryan Poles feels like a GM who understands what good football players look like and did a decent job. Brisker was one of my favorite day two prospects. A Bears scout said some grim stuff about him being poor and desperate which was dehumanising, but he is an uber smart defensive back who should be ready to go.

Kyler Gordon is a good addition day two cornerback, the (slightly) inferior(?) Washington prospect who was still a pretty good cover-man. He has a fairly decent floor too. There’s probably a contributor amongst the offensive line picks, perhaps out of necessity if nothing else. Braxton Jones is the most intriguing with his size and athletic profile, but Zach Thomas has something too. 

What I didn’t like:

Velus Jones should give the team a boost as a return guy, but he’s a little old and I can’t see him becoming a meaningful part of a confusing receiver situation. Eight of their eleven draft picks were made on day three and from pick 168 onwards. Man, I just think the stuff I didn’t like is stuff they couldn’t help – the holes are too deep to get better right away. Ryan Pace tried to get his team running before they could walk. Whilst Poles doesn’t seem like he’s ready to make that same mistake, the clock is ticking on the Justin Fields franchise clock and that's not necessarily a problem which will be laid at his door.