Xenos Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 Apparently it’s very hard for a team on average to beat the consensus board. You know the one that outside pundits use to grade whether something is a reach, steal, or the right value. It reminds me of how very few investors can actually beat an index fund. Which brings me to why I’m personally bringing this up. The Tweet below does make me wonder if those scouts and FO people really need to be spending this much time on prospects. At what point are you having diminishing returns? Like investing in the stock market, should your team just do normal hours and go by the consensus board rather than their own and have reaches? https://mobile.twitter.com/PFF_Moo/status/1526819499617419265 https://mobile.twitter.com/PFF_Moo/status/1526822190359912450 https://mobile.twitter.com/PFF_Moo/status/1526822395088195585 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 I assume if you're not beating the consensus board as a scouting department, you get fired. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dome Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 The NFL draft should be 100% fan vote would be fun 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrantikRam Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 Part of what teams are doing is analyzing who other teams might pick and trying to come out on top. A great example of this is the Rams and Bobby Wagner and the aptly named "Bobby Wagner rule" that the Rams have. We really wanted Wagner but thought we could wait a few more picks for him - we were wrong and he ultimately turned into a hall of famer. I'd love to see where the consensus had him that year, because both the Rams and Seahawks basically used that against the rest of the league with Seattle coming out on top. I'd also wonder where the consensus was on Cooper Kupp - because whatever else the Rams did in that draft, if we beat the consensus for him, we destroyed it overall with just how valuable he is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
43M Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 20 minutes ago, FrantikRam said: Part of what teams are doing is analyzing who other teams might pick and trying to come out on top. A great example of this is the Rams and Bobby Wagner and the aptly named "Bobby Wagner rule" that the Rams have. We really wanted Wagner but thought we could wait a few more picks for him - we were wrong and he ultimately turned into a hall of famer. I'd love to see where the consensus had him that year, because both the Rams and Seahawks basically used that against the rest of the league with Seattle coming out on top. I'd also wonder where the consensus was on Cooper Kupp - because whatever else the Rams did in that draft, if we beat the consensus for him, we destroyed it overall with just how valuable he is. Different teams have different philosophies. Some stay put no matter what. Some will trade alot to move up and get the player they want. Some teams love trading down and stockpiling picks. Obviously teams take risks on certain players...whether its "reaching" for a player they really covet, or gambling that a player they like will be there with the next pick. As far as Kupp, I obviously dont know where teams had him, but he was projected by most to go mid 2nd to mid 3rd in 2017, so based on that, he went about where he was projected by most. There were probably several teams that considered him before the Rams, but liked another player more...and obviously chose unwisely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAF-N72EX Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 11 minutes ago, FrantikRam said: I'd also wonder where the consensus was on Cooper Kupp - because whatever else the Rams did in that draft, if we beat the consensus for him, we destroyed it overall with just how valuable he is. 43rd - 77th overall (mid 2nd to mid 3rd). He went 69th. Most saw him as the 7th best WR in the draft. Corey Davis (projected 3rd-10th) went 5th Mike Williams (4th-11th) went 7th John Ross (13th-16th) went 9th Curtis Samuel (48th-53rd) went 40th JuJu (33rd-59th) went 62nd Zay Jones (33rd-71st) went 37th Cooper Kupp (43rd-77th) went 69th ArDarius Stewart (78th-81st) went 79th Chris Godwin (65th-85th) went 84th 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nabbs4u Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, FrantikRam said: Part of what teams are doing is analyzing who other teams might pick and trying to come out on top. A great example of this is the Rams and Bobby Wagner and the aptly named "Bobby Wagner rule" that the Rams have. We really wanted Wagner but thought we could wait a few more picks for him - we were wrong and he ultimately turned into a hall of famer. I'd love to see where the consensus had him that year, because both the Rams and Seahawks basically used that against the rest of the league with Seattle coming out on top. I'd also wonder where the consensus was on Cooper Kupp - because whatever else the Rams did in that draft, if we beat the consensus for him, we destroyed it overall with just how valuable he is. Well I can name 1 idiot who had Mychal Kendrick ranked at least 1 pick higher!!! 🤷♂️🤷♂️ Edited June 4, 2022 by Nabbs4u Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wyld Stallyns Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 If the Colts just used the consensus board they would have stayed at 43 and taken LT Bernhard Raimann, seeing as that was the consensus pick for the Colts at that pick. Instead they traded down from 43 to 52, got pick number 77 in return, and took WR Alec Pierce at 52 and Raimann at 77 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nabbs4u Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 14 minutes ago, Wyld Stallyns said: If the Colts just used the consensus board they would have stayed at 43 and taken LT Bernhard Raimann, seeing as that was the consensus pick for the Colts at that pick. Instead they traded down from 43 to 52, got pick number 77 in return, and took WR Alec Pierce at 52 and Raimann at 77 You do realize that every other GM ignored the "consensus board" too at least once if indeed Raiman was the 43rd overall best prospect and projected to be a Colt? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenos Posted June 4, 2022 Author Share Posted June 4, 2022 3 hours ago, Daniel said: I assume if you're not beating the consensus board as a scouting department, you get fired. Yeah that’s a lot of fired scouts. It is weird how the board somehow comes out ahead most of the time. But maybe that’s just paralysis by over analysis? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wyld Stallyns Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 6 hours ago, Nabbs4u said: You do realize that every other GM ignored the "consensus board" too at least once if indeed Raiman was the 43rd overall best prospect and projected to be a Colt? Or things like his age and arm length are factors the Colts don’t see a problem with while other teams do. That is something a consensus board doesn’t take into consideration. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 I’d love to see the consensus board on quarterbacks over the past 5-10 years. For example, depending upon the expert, the Chargers get Tua instead of Herbert and the Bills get Rosen instead of Allen. The Browns would also have ended up with Chubb instead of Ward and even Guice over Chubb. Don’t get me wrong, those guys are right more than they’re wrong but those are some major franchise altering draft picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 7 hours ago, Xenos said: Yeah that’s a lot of fired scouts. It is weird how the board somehow comes out ahead most of the time. I mean, if your scouts aren’t outperforming the board, why not fire them? Obviously, you still need interviews and all, but if you’re an owner, why spend your money there at all? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mazrimiv Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Wyld Stallyns said: Or things like his age and arm length are factors the Colts don’t see a problem with while other teams do. That is something a consensus board doesn’t take into consideration. The consensus board also ignores the concept of team/system fit, which does matter. Unless the consensus is prepared to build separate boards for each team, this conversation is largely pointless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 Just now, Mazrimiv said: The consensus board also ignores the concept of team/system fit, which does matter. Unless the consensus is prepared to build separate boards for each team, this conversation is largely pointless. Is the consensus board build from the actual draft boards of all 32 teams? Or is it from what various draft sites have that is a compilation of what there "scouts and teams sources" give them for grades. Since pre-draft is " lying season", I'm not sure how the team sources could be verified as actual honest info Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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