2023 draft prospects and college football talk.

[Slappy Mc]

36 minutes ago, ARTMONK HOF said:

 How would this news impact you picking him at 16?

I wouldn't have preferred to pick him at 16 anyway. We really shouldn't be picking anyone at 16. A trade down makes the most sense with the talent on the top end of the draft. If they do select at 16, it should be for a top CB (not that I want that). Any of our other positions of need (not named QB) will most likely be a reach. 

[turtle28]

3 hours ago, Slappy Mc said:

I wouldn't have preferred to pick him at 16 anyway. We really shouldn't be picking anyone at 16. A trade down makes the most sense with the talent on the top end of the draft. If they do select at 16, it should be for a top CB (not that I want that). Any of our other positions of need (not named QB) will most likely be a reach. 

I’d like to get one of the best players of the next bunch at 16. I wouldn’t trade down too far if we did trade down.

I don’t think some of the OL if still available will be a reach at 16.

[turtle28]

On 3/22/2023 at 4:48 PM, Slappy Mc said:

I can't find the article, but immediately after the draft there was a team that stated had we not selected him, they would have. 

I think it's absolutely bizarre that you would still feel that Dotson was a reach, but you are entitled to your opinion.

I will go on record and say that the Dotson trade and talent they got because of the trade is the single best Draft decision this staff has made. It's not even close either.

I agree. Dotson was never a reach & he played very well last year.

Jamin I would say was a reach but they drafted him bc of his athleticism & upside which the second half of last year he really showed off so he’s actually proving he was worth his selection as well.

I expect both of them to have huge years for us.

I would say the best draft decision this staff made is Kam Curl & it’s looking like DeFo was a straight up steal as well plus Juice. Those 3 young DBs are all good to great players for us. 
 

It’s hard to not see those 3 as our 3 best decisions. 

[turtle28]

On 3/22/2023 at 4:52 PM, e16bball said:

I think there are degrees to the term “reach.” It’s not a binary thing where you either are one or aren’t one.

Both Dotson and Davis went a bit higher than just about anyone in the draft media had really projected them, and that’s all we have to go on as fans. Just taking a quick look at the final mock drafts for a couple guys (Kiper, McShay, Brugler), they all had Jamin pegged between 26-29 and Jahan slotted between 23-26. Which means that each of them went about 7-10 picks before their perceived range (by leading draft media). 

I think that qualifies as a “slight reach” on both. Not Cole Strange level, but based on what we know, the consensus seemed to be that these guys would last a bit longer on the board. 

It’s not egregious, but there may have been an opportunity there in both cases to make a small move back and still get the guy. Even dropping back just 5 picks from 16 or 19 would net a late 3rd per the draft charts. The best drafting teams make these kinds of moves, and in doing so, they meaningfully increase their arsenal of picks over time. 

We will never know. If we traded back we may have missed on both. The Titans probably would have taken Dotson if we traded back behind them.

Can’t we just be happy that we got two good starters in round 1 in back to back drafts & they could develop even more into great starters? Neither has reached their potential IMO.

A year later the last thing I care about is if a guy who’s become a good starter was a perceived “reach in the draft” by some talking heads on TV.

What matters is they’re good starters for us & still have potential they haven’t reached yes.

Edited March 23, 2023 by turtle28

[turtle28]

On 3/22/2023 at 5:29 PM, e16bball said:

I was in favor of the trade, as well, even though I thought it was a light return for that particular move down. My board got eviscerated between 11 and 16, which hurt. But they seemed to do well with the picks they ended up with, and if Howell is an actual NFL starting QB then it was a grand slam outcome. 

Still, it will be interesting to track Olave vs. Dotson. It was obvious that their focus was on the WR position, and they passed on the chance to take the last of the clear top 3 WRs in order to move down and take a lesser prospect. If Olave is a star and Dotson is just a guy, that would hurt. But I’d still favor the logic of the move. 

I think Dotson has already proven that he’s more than “just a guy.” 
 

I know Olave & Wilson had more catches & yards, but each of them only had 4 TD receptions while Dotson had 7 while only playing in 12 games bc of his hamstring injury.

Don’t be Buddy Ryan and say all he does is catch TDs.

Dotson also went to a team with 1 great & 1 good starter. He came in as the #3 behind Terry & Samuel.

Plus, if Dotson hadn’t hurt his hamstring he probably finishes the season with 55 recs, 750 yds & 9 or 10 TDs.

[Thaiphoon]

23 hours ago, MKnight82 said:

Yeah, surprised me too when I realized how much I liked the guy in 2020/21 and coming out in 2022. And how well he did in 2020 and 2021 on 3rd and long. I think if we can develop him we might have something here.

[ripsean21]

19 hours ago, turtle28 said:

I’d like to get one of the best players of the next bunch at 16. I wouldn’t trade down too far if we did trade down.

I don’t think some of the OL if still available will be a reach at 16.

I don’t think Torrence is a reach at 16. He’s my highest rated OL. I like Paris and Torrence and Wright and Mauch. But if either Gonzales or Witherspoon are there I have blue chip grades on both. But I think they are gone. Kincaid would be crazy for our offense. He’s actually my highest rated pass catcher because I think he’s the best weapon in this class. His injury is worrisome. But he’d be huge with our backs and Wideouts man Sam hasn’t had a TE like that ever. I can still see a scenario where if Bijorn if he’s there man you IMO have to take him. You could move AG after for picks and could continue to maximize the draft. But the BRob pair would be sick!!! You make that pick and go OL round 2 and if you trade AG for a 3 you can really get creative. Bijorn would give this offense something IMO only the saints and 49ers have in a premier RB. The things we could do with Howells legs and those RB’s and our weapons outside we could have a team to contend going forward with a few OL upgrades. Because there’s only 6 players I’d take I’ve Bjorn if avalible and only 2 have a similar or close grade to his. At a certain point his value because his ability has to trump positional value. If he’s there you almost have too take him.

[turtle28]

On 3/23/2023 at 2:41 PM, ARTMONK HOF said:

 How would this news impact you picking him at 16?

Well considering I never wanted Kincaid at 16, that cements it for me. He’s a NO in round 1. I still want Torrence or a CB at 16. 
 

It’s funny, I read posts about our TEs are injury prone w/ one of them having a hamstring issue & getting a concussion as a rookie so it’s not a large enough sample size yet, the guy they want to draft in round 1 is coming off a back injury which most of us old guys know could be a big deal throughout his career.

But hey, no injuries here…

Edited March 25, 2023 by turtle28

[turtle28]

8 hours ago, ripsean21 said:

I don’t think Torrence is a reach at 16. He’s my highest rated OL. I like Paris and Torrence and Wright and Mauch. But if either Gonzales or Witherspoon are there I have blue chip grades on both. But I think they are gone. Kincaid would be crazy for our offense. He’s actually my highest rated pass catcher because I think he’s the best weapon in this class. His injury is worrisome. But he’d be huge with our backs and Wideouts man Sam hasn’t had a TE like that ever. I can still see a scenario where if Bijorn if he’s there man you IMO have to take him. You could move AG after for picks and could continue to maximize the draft. But the BRob pair would be sick!!! You make that pick and go OL round 2 and if you trade AG for a 3 you can really get creative. Bijorn would give this offense something IMO only the saints and 49ers have in a premier RB. The things we could do with Howells legs and those RB’s and our weapons outside we could have a team to contend going forward with a few OL upgrades. Because there’s only 6 players I’d take I’ve Bjorn if avalible and only 2 have a similar or close grade to his. At a certain point his value because his ability has to trump positional value. If he’s there you almost have too take him.

It’s between the best available OL & best available CB for me at 16. I’m not coming off that position. If we got a true answer at RG & not just a “hope” that Cosmi can stay healthy and make the switch to RG or, if we get a great #3 CB it will really solve a lot of problems for our O or D.

I will also stand on my opinion that any TE we draft will be the 4th option in our offense behind Terry, Curtis & Jahan & maybe even 5th after Gibson depending on how Bieniemy uses him. Last year McKinnon had 56 catches, 512 yds & 9 TDs. I could see Gibson doing something similar while also getting 150-175 carries for 600-750 yds and 5 TDs or so.

[turtle28]

https://www.nfl.com/_amp/four-round-2023-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-qbs-go-1-2-3-after-colts-trade-up

Chad Reuter’s Mock Draft on NFL.Com has the Commanders taking O’Cyrus Torrence at 16.

Pick

16

Washington Commanders

 

O'Cyrus Torrence

Florida · OG · Senior

“It is possible the Commanders will use 2021 second-round pick Sam Cosmi at right guard, but I believe new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy would love to see Torrence moving run defenders after watching Trey Smith do just that in Kansas City. In this scenario, Cosmi could take over the important swing tackle position.“

 

Round 2: Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon St.

Round 3: Clark Phillips, CB, Utah

Round 4: Nick Herbig, SLB/3rd down pass rusher, Wisconsin

 

I have to be honest, I like this mock up until the 4th round pick. We already have a bunch of decent depth at DE & why draft an athletic undersized rusher on 3rd down while kicking Chase inside we have Shaka Toney for that already? 🤷‍♂️

In round 4 I’d rather take a true LB rather than a tweener who’s built like a 4-3 LB but fits a 3-4 scheme better. 
 

I’d rather see us go DeMarvion Overshown, Dorian Williams or Ivan Pace, Jr. bc they’re true 4-3 LBs.

Edited March 25, 2023 by turtle28

[ripsean21]

12 hours ago, turtle28 said:

It’s between the best available OL & best available CB for me at 16. I’m not coming off that position. If we got a true answer at RG & not just a “hope” that Cosmi can stay healthy and make the switch to RG or, if we get a great #3 CB it will really solve a lot of problems for our O or D.

I will also stand on my opinion that any TE we draft will be the 4th option in our offense behind Terry, Curtis & Jahan & maybe even 5th after Gibson depending on how Bieniemy uses him. Last year McKinnon had 56 catches, 512 yds & 9 TDs. I could see Gibson doing something similar while also getting 150-175 carries for 600-750 yds and 5 TDs or so.

And I can see that. But a TE wouldn’t be a 4th option. Maybe on paper but from week too week that’s not always the case. Say we play a team with a top 5 DB good edges and a weaker Interior and suspect OLB with good deep saftey play. Terry becomes your 2 only because he’s your 1 and you’re going to dial plays up. But now your TE becomes your 1 due to the deep saftey taking Jahans deep presence and you’re exploiting their OLB’s. You can’t have enough good weapons and matchup beating dynamics from those players. In such a matchup you’re only as good as the difference in that matchup.

You want a guy at TE that can wreck gameplans. Why we haven’t been competetive outside of QB play. In todays NFL the Wildcard position is TE and a defense that can take that TE away. 8-10 of the last SB’s were won IMO by the difference of that matchup. yes you need a top tier QB we all know that and a deep team. But the biggest disparity I have noticed in my life is the teams at those two things. Tony G, Antonio Gates, Gronk, saints Jimmy G, Kelce. These offenses with these type of weapons reguardless of WR play have been the top tier and really are year in and year out playoff and SB contenders. Go to the other side and let’s talk about the best defenses that could actually mitigate those TE’s. Seattle with Kam and Earl. Denver’s with Talib and Harris and that Saftey group. TB did it with an elite front and Elite LB’s who can run side to side and cover. 
 

So yes when you’re thinking about this team on paper while the TE is a rookie and you see Jahan, Terry, Curtis and our RB’s yeah I can see what you’re saying. But when you select a really dynamic weapon we’re trying to project and scheme and coach him to his potential and you ultimately want the TE to become your 1B or 2. I agree we need to fix the OL. And getting special OL players matter. But if you can’t get that and you can get a similar player round two but your talking about getting a scheme breaking TE too finally give whoever our QB is a saftey blanket that isn’t just Terry now you have a arsenal. When you have that you can realistically compete. Because we have the type of players on defense to compete. Yes we need a few upgrades but this isn’t the go all in offseason. This is really the biggest gauging season for what we are going forward. 

[e16bball]

13 hours ago, turtle28 said:

It’s between the best available OL & best available CB for me at 16. I’m not coming off that position. If we got a true answer at RG & not just a “hope” that Cosmi can stay healthy and make the switch to RG or, if we get a great #3 CB it will really solve a lot of problems for our O or D.

I will also stand on my opinion that any TE we draft will be the 4th option in our offense behind Terry, Curtis & Jahan & maybe even 5th after Gibson depending on how Bieniemy uses him. Last year McKinnon had 56 catches, 512 yds & 9 TDs. I could see Gibson doing something similar while also getting 150-175 carries for 600-750 yds and 5 TDs or so.

But if we’re looking at how they used RBs in KC, don’t we have to also look at how they used TEs? Kelce is the most targeted TE in the history of the game. In 4 of the 5 years that Bieniemy was the OC, he was their most targeted player. Their WR3 never had more than 1/3 of the targets Kelce had — last year, it was Hardman, and he had 34 targets in 8 games. 

Obviously, part of that is just Kelce being incredible. But it’s always been a part of what Reid does, and Bieniemy has only ever coordinated an offense with an elite receiving TE. The scheme involves using the TE heavily, especially in the red zone — and they used a ton of 3 TE personnel last season. 

Honestly, they probably should have given a lot more thought to trading Samuel and going lighter at WR. Between Brown and maybe another 3rd round WR like Rashee Rice, they’d be more than able to do what Bieniemy has been successful with in KC. 

[turtle28]

11 minutes ago, e16bball said:

But if we’re looking at how they used RBs in KC, don’t we have to also look at how they used TEs? Kelce is the most targeted TE in the history of the game. In 4 of the 5 years that Bieniemy was the OC, he was their most targeted player. Their WR3 never had more than 1/3 of the targets Kelce had — last year, it was Hardman, and he had 34 targets in 8 games. 

Obviously, part of that is just Kelce being incredible. But it’s always been a part of what Reid does, and Bieniemy has only ever coordinated an offense with an elite receiving TE. The scheme involves using the TE heavily, especially in the red zone — and they used a ton of 3 TE personnel last season. 

Honestly, they probably should have given a lot more thought to trading Samuel and going lighter at WR. Between Brown and maybe another 3rd round WR like Rashee Rice, they’d be more than able to do what Bieniemy has been successful with in KC. 

It’s my opinion that the chiefs just didn’t have the WR Talent from 1-3 as we do & of course they have Kelce & Kelce/Mahomes  literally have the same brain.

I don’t know for me, it’s just so much more important for us to get a great OG prospect who can lock down our weakest spot on the OL for 5-10 years which remains RG spot w/ a guy like Torrence or a CB who may be our #1 CB w/ a year or 2 of development that can start day 1 & help our pass D than to get a TE who may or may not catch 5-10 more passes than Logan. 

[e16bball]

6 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

It’s my opinion that the chiefs just didn’t have the WR Talent from 1-3 as we do & of course they have Kelce & Kelce/Mahomes  literally have the same brain.

I don’t know for me, it’s just so much more important for us to get a great OG prospect who can lock down our weakest spot on the OL for 5-10 years which remains RG spot w/ a guy like Torrence or a CB who may be our #1 CB w/ a year or 2 of development that can start day 1 & help our pass D than to get a TE who may or may not catch 5-10 more passes than Logan. 

I’d love to get a great OG. But I don’t see one. Torrence is a good prospect, maybe even very good. But he’s limited athletically, which means he probably doesn’t have the ceiling of ever becoming a Quenton Nelson or Zach Martin (or even Brandon Scherff). 

I like him, I think he’s a good bet to be a good starting OG. But that’s a pretty low upside outcome for pick 16. I would really hope we could find that later in the draft (Cody Mauch?), but at the very least I’d hope we could trade down if he’s the target. 

[turtle28]

9 hours ago, e16bball said:

I’d love to get a great OG. But I don’t see one. Torrence is a good prospect, maybe even very good. But he’s limited athletically, which means he probably doesn’t have the ceiling of ever becoming a Quenton Nelson or Zach Martin (or even Brandon Scherff). 

I like him, I think he’s a good bet to be a good starting OG. But that’s a pretty low upside outcome for pick 16. I would really hope we could find that later in the draft (Cody Mauch?), but at the very least I’d hope we could trade down if he’s the target. 

I think Mauch will go before we pick in the 2nd but if we go TE in R1 I hope he is there in R2 for us. It is true we could take Michael Mayer or Dalton Kincaid in round 1 (and I think there's a strong chance that Bieniemy pushes for fish & they give him a TE) & then they come back in round 2 and take an OG prospect if there’s one worth taking. If there isn’t an OG worth taking in R2, I’d go CB & then OG in R3.

Edited March 26, 2023 by turtle28