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SNF Week 3 GDT: San Francisco @ Denver

Broncofan

By Broncofan
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Broncofan

Broncofan

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OK, so @J-ALL-DAY asked for a scouting report on the game for the 49ers forum (as I've been known to put a wager or 2 in the Weekly Bets Thread), figured this works for the Main Forum GDT....

 

________________

 

SF on O
 

If Trey Lance was playing SF's O would have a great shot of killing our D.   Our ILB’s pass cover is very poor and run support even worse.  It sounds like we get Jewell back and that helps but not against elite speed running QB.   Hurts, Lance & Lamar would feast against ourD's.   Without Lance and SF's top 2 RB’s , the run game with Deebo and Kittle receiving / Deebo in short area is how they likely will attack DEN's D.    Before ppl say JimmyG improves the pass game over Lance - that’s the DEN D strength strength.   JimmyG helps SF win more reg season games when the pass game is the weakness to exploit, and not where the run game / ILB’s aren’t the obv target.  
 

As for the pass game - besides our secondary, we can generate pressure both inside and out.   I don’t expect Trent Williams will repeat week 1 (where his footwork apparently tipped the D on run/pass), but McGlinchey / IOL is where the pressure (or not) will come.   Not just Randy Gregory but Dre’mont Jones.   Now, Dre'mont is questionable and we did call up Jonathan Harris off the PS, if he missed the game that would be HUGE (both for run support and inside push).   Baron Browning & Jonathan Cooper are the other 2 names besides Chubb.    It seems like Patrick Surtain Jr. will play then he takes out who he’s covering (DK went 4-32 1H IIRC but Evero had them playing off coverage.   DK went 1-13 in 2H and HOU did nothing).   If Kittle & Deebo aren’t SF's highest volume guys and you hear the pass rushers name a lot - that’s likely DEN D win.   If the big 2 SF skill guys  thrive and we hear little about SF's pass rushers, then SF O gets the edge.  
 

DEN on O

On the flip side when DEN O gets the ball - if we don’t have Jeudy and Hamler that makes it a LOT easier to defend.    Even 1 of those 2 back then D’s can’t just try to take out Sutton.   It sounds like Hamler for sure is back, and Jeudy seems ready to go, but will test pre-game.  There could be a decoy element, too.   Either way, having all 3 on the field is still much better than last week, when only Sutton played beyond the first 2 drives.     Our run game has been very productive.   Javonte Williams is an absolute animal.  The backup RT & G have played surprisingly well after losing Meinerz and Turner getting into game shape.   I’d prefer Turner in there though vs. Bosa obv.   The O leads the league in yards / drive at 57 yards/drive.   Basically, when we get the plays in on time and aren't going too-cute in the RZ, both pass & run game work really well so far (understanding it's SEA/HOU, but can only play who's in front of you).  Play calling in the RZ and penalties are the only reasons so far the O's production has not translated to huge point totals (plus unicorn of 2 fumbles at 1  yard line on week 1 MNF).   Russ hasn’t been running - he’s been extending plays while staying in the pocket.  This is good for us long-term but obv SF's pass rush success is another pivotal factor. 


INTANGIBLES 

So it’s a toss up on both sides of the ball  -  and depends a lot on who’s playing (or not).   4 intangibles to consider:  

1.  Our ST have been dreadful.  No TO but meh coverage / blocking.   No idea where SF's guys are at. 

2.  Coaching gap - I’ve been hard on Kyle Shanahan’s game management (while being a top 5 scheme designer and pre-game planner) as too conservative.    But his problems  pale in comparison to Nathaniel Hackett.   Dude has literally cost us 7+Pts each game with disastrous game management / penalties / play calling that’s been too cute in RZ and key 3rd down moments. 

Everyone saw MNF week 1.  Last week was literally no better for Hackett: 

-He called a 3rd and 1 TE option with guy who had 1 career carry -in college.   Then couldn’t decide on 4th and 2 at 37 what to - time count violation negated a made 55-yarder.   Punt instead of FG. 

-Also failed to use a TO with 2 in the pocket at 4th and goal at 1 yd line in the 2Q with 30 secs left.   Delay of game, FG.   Guess he thought he’d need them for those last 30 secs.  

-Had to burn a TO in the 2H on 4th down because we didn’t have a punt returner on the field.    

-And like week 1, we had 12+ penalties.    It’s that bad.    

So even though in-game is Kyle S’s weakest area (excellent everywhere else) - hard to think SF doesn’t have an edge.    How much of an edge?  Well, DEN was a -2.5 pt home favorite before they played HOU (and SF already had won their game, so the Lance injury was known) - 4 hours later, and only then....the line changed to SF -1.   Lance's injury was known well before game time (when the lines were stable), so it's pretty telling why the books changed the line - DEN's management ineptitude.
 

3.  Altitude - the depth / injuries SF is experiencing will matter - because playing in DEN prevents teams from playing the normal snaps they’re used to in other venues.  If it’s late and the TOP isn’t tilted heavily to SF then the units do wear down.   We’ve sucked at home the last 2-3 years because our O sucked and couldn’t keep the D off the field, which negated this advantage.  That’s no longer the case, so this should be back in our favour.   In that respect - if we can keep the TOP to even or better, the chances the SF trenches wear down goes up significantly in the 2H (staying on the field on O is how that HFA with altitude plays out).
 

4.  TO’s - the ultimate equalizer / decider.  Teams that go +1 win 65+ percent of games    2+ 90 percent, 3+ 96 percent.  One key change for our D - DC Evero is promoting ball hawking.  We’ve forced 5 fumbles but only recovered 1.    More to highlight how well JimmyG and RussW protect the ball will likely decide this.   

 

________________

SUMMARY/FINAL THOUGHTS
 

We know Kittle is active, and even if he's just "close" to full go they can leverage our ILB weakness both with Kittle's elite run blocking and big play catch-and-run ability.   This also helps increase Deebo Samuel's impact (PS2 will likely take out one WR, so I'll pick Aiyuk since Deebo can be moved everywhere to avoid PS2).   On the flip side Jeudy / Hamler & Surtain Jr / Dre'mont & DJ Jones are key ppl.   I’d say it’s 27-24 game if Kittle / Jeudy are  ok.   More like 20-17 if they aren’t.   Injury report will be massive.    Sorry to the SF fans that didn’t help on committing to the outcome - but that’s as complete a picture I can give as to why it’s a toss up and why the injury report matters so much.   
 

It’s  too bad HC Hackett decided to rest out starters for the entire preseason with a new scheme and then went all-time worst game management debut EVER while SF played in a biblical monsoon - it should be a battle of 2-0 teams and seeing who’s legit.   Instead the winner is relieved and the loser has a much tougher road to realize their playoff aspirations.   But either way it should be a helluva game.   Hopefully it’s not decided by brain dead coaching and just better play on the field.   I can live with either result then. 

Edited by Broncofan
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