State of the Steelers

[43M]

I was going to wait until after the season to give my assessment, but I dont see anything really changing over the last month of the season....

QB

Pickett is showing nice progression and I am gaining more faith in him going forward, but he isnt a slam dunk, nor do I think he has the tools to be an elite talent.   I think he has the tools to be a quality franchise QB for many years IN THE RIGHT situation.    High end hopes is a more clutch Tony Romo, low end hope is prime Andy Dalton.

Trubisky is just a wasted space at this point.   He doesnt have much to offer that we cant get from almost anyone else at a likely much cheaper price.     Rudolph isnt that good either, but if we can retain him cheaper, Ill take him easily.     He MAY want to go somewhere else, though.

QB Offseason Outlook:   If we dump Mitch and keep Rudolph, then just get a really cheap FA or a UDFA.   Maybe if we didnt laughably waste a pick on Oludakun this past draft we might already have one of on the practice squad.     If we lose both QBs, I feel like we need a decent vet.    Jacoby Brisset or Bridgewater could be options, at least to get us through 2023.   Either way, no major investments in the position.

 

RB

Najee is nothing special, but I feel like he can be decently effective with a proper OLine.     Warren is really good for a backup.   Snell is Snell, but Im relatively fine with staying put at RB for next season.     

RB Offseason Outlook:   No offense, but going forward, Najee should be our reminder never to draft RB in rd 1, especially when you dont have a proper OLine.    Lots of room for improvement at RB, but at worst, we have an average RB room, which will have to suffice for now.     Even with the issues, not even a top 7 need.       

 

WR/TE

DJ will almost undoubtedly be back, so just deal with his shortcomings for now.     Pickens should improve and is a nice weapon, but hopefully we get an OC who can help scheme him open more and hopefully Kenny starts trusting himself to throw to him in tight windows.        Really hoping Austin can come back and be effective.   That would be like an extra draft pick in 23 since he essentially redshirted this year.    The rest is just okayish.    I feel like Sims is the only other guy I really want to see back.   The others will come down to special teams.

At TE, Pat is good and could be really good, but maybe not as good as I once hoped.      Gentry is bargain bin, but I would keep him over investing much into the position.      Heyward should get more reps at TE next year.

WR/TE Offseason Outlook:   Much like RB, WR will have to do for the most part.    Not that I wouldnt potentially take a shot at a WR if a good one falls in the 2nd or 3rd round, but we cant keep investing high picks into WR every damn year.   Thats partly why we are where we are.   A seasoned vet like Jarvis Landry would be the best type of addition for 2023.  People have mentioned bringing Juju back, but I dont think he would WANT to come back.  TE, again, could use an upgrade, but this ridiculous mocks I see having us draft TE in the 2nd round are making my brain hurt.       Late round pick or cheap FA, at most to compete vs Gentry.

 

OLine

Dan Moore has developed decently, but is an average at best talent at LT.     Dotson is average or below average at LG.    Cole is average to above average at RG.    Daniels is merely solid at RG.    Chucks is pretty average at RT.

See the theme?

Sure, this OLine has exceeded expectations and potentially could be better next year, but only marginally.   There are no stand out talents on the line, and we see that every week.     I dont expect some major overhaul, especially given the improvements in some areas and the arising issues at other positions, but its clearly an area where a few major changes are going to need to be made if we ever want to see this offense really move to the next level, even with a new OC.

OLine Offseason Outlook:   At least one of our top 3 picks will be spent on OLine.   Perhaps 2.     Depends on free agency as well.   Im not expecting a huge overhaul, but I could see two new starters next year (likely on the left side), and maybe a developmental player drafted for the future.        Like I said, free agency is an option, but its not a particularly strong year for upgrading our OLine via free agency.   Most of the "better" OLineman likely to hit will be lateral moves or close to it.

 

DLine

Heyward is still solid, but isnt the same player as 2 or 3 years ago.    We have a backup caliber DT.      Ogunjobi is decent, but more of a stop gap transitional or really good depth player.   Wormley is a nice depth player as well.   Leal I am cautiously optimistic about, but not exceedingly.     

Again, see the theme? 

DLine Offseason Outlook:   With the continued regression of Heyward, this line has no standouts anymore.     Losing Tuitt really hurt this team at DL.  Its mostly all quality depth guys, and the one bonafide starter is fading fast.       This needs to be another point of emphasis, not just in 2023, but likely 2024 and maybe even 2025.     There are a couple decent options in free agency....maybe the return of Hargrave or a guy like Daron Payne....but either way, the STARTING defensive line will need completely rebuilt the next 2 to 3 offesasons.

 

LB Corps

I am worried that Watt is going down his brothers path, and he may not be QUITE the wrecking ball for another 5 years, mostly due to injury.   Hope Im wrong.     Highsmith is a very good compliment to TJ, but leaves a bit to be desired as a stand alone force.       We have pretty much NOTHING else at OLB.     Devin Bush has been better in 2022, but still nowhere remotely close to a guy you traded up into the top 10 to get.     Him and Jack are just painfully average ILBs, and both could be gone after this season. 

LB Corps Offseason Outlook:    Our OLB corps wont change next offseason, but they may try to work out something with Highsmith....hopefully not anything too crazy though.      Beyond TJ and Highsmith, we desperately need depth behind them, but I have no idea who.   Maybe a mid roundish or late selection in the draft.   Not many great options in free agency   (maybe Clowney?)    At ILB, I forsee at least one new starter.     Likely a 2nd or 3rd round pick.       Wouldnt really mind taking a shot at Tremaine Edmunds if he hits the market, giving us another set of bros.

 

Secondary

Levi Wallace is decent, but nothing special.     Sutton is pretty good but may be gone.     I seriously doubt William Jackson ends up being on our team next year unless he takes a monster pay cut....and even if he is on the team, is likely just going to be another underwhemling vet like Witherspoon.    After that, we have nothing I  trust at CB, and this has been a theme for the past decade or so.      

At safety. Minkah is a staple for a long time.    Edmunds is JAG, but serviceable.    Kazee is pretty decent depth.

Secondary Offseason Outlook:    I feel like Sutton needs to be a priority with Witherspoon and Jackson likely gone.      Regardless, CB will be a top need going into the offseason.   Fortunately, its a pretty good year too need one in the draft, and is my odds on bet to be our top pick in the draft.    If not first round, almost definitely a second round pick.   Maybe even a cheap free agent and/or late round pick.     I would prefer to keep both Edmunds and Kazee on cheap deals through 23.      I really dont want to create a glaring hole there for the draft, and while there are some decent players, Im not sure FA has a great compliment to Minkah in 2023.

 

Special Teams

Boswell obviously.

Get Harvin out of here.  Another in a long line of mediocre Steelers punters.     

Fire Danny Smith, as usual.

Keep Steven Sims as RS,    He has been our best guy since AB.

 

Coaching

We will keep spinning tires with Tomlin.

Austin will be back at DC....for better or worse.    Flores might get an offer as a DC somewhere.....perhaps even interview for a HC vacancy.    Not really enthused about that.   Rather keep Flores than Austin.

If Canada isnt fired, I will be sorely tempted to boycott this team.    I think he will be, but even if he is, I am very worried about who might replace him.     It better not be internal, and it better not be a supremely mediocre d-bag like Bill OBrien.

Edited December 12, 2022 by 43M

[warfelg]

I know Dan Moore had an okay stretch for a few games, but if anyone thinks he’s worth the good quarter here and there, he has dirt on you.

The OL still needs so much work.  Cole and Daniels are the only ones that are safe IMO.  I’m 100% done with Dodson, 80% done with Moore.  Those two have been better at run blocking than the right side (Okorafor is one of the lowest rated run blocking RT’s) but their pass blocking is so bad it doesn’t make up for it.

I’ve also flipped a bit: I wouldn’t sign Orlando Brown Jr.  Go after Jack Conklin.  Plug him at RT, move Okorafor to LT.  Draft a LT in the first 3 rounds to take over for Okorafor.  Move Moore to G while signing a guy like Wes Schweitzer to round out the line.

 

On the defensive line:

Hayward and Leal are the only two that should stay.  Larry O is nice, but he’s a pass rushing dude, not a run stopper.  Adams is JAG at best.  Alualu is done.  Wormley is JAG when in there.

I like Payne like you guys do, but I also like the idea of sign A’Shawn Robinson at NT and play Leal at DE while filling out that depth.  Tanoh Kpassagnon would be a nice depth signing.  Hassan Ridgeway would be a nice depth signing there as well.  Spend a top 3 pick there as well.

 

So in this plan, would be looking at signing Conklin, Schweitzer, Robinson; then in the draft spend 2/4 top 100 picks in the lines.  Running a first 3 rounds mock:

13 - Paris Johnson Jr OT Ohio State

33 - Antonio Johnson DB Texas A&M

43 - Calijah Kancey DT Pitt

74 - Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson CB TCU

 

OL 2023:

LT - Okorafor/Johnson

LG - Schweitzer

C - Cole

RG - Daniels

RT - Conklin

DL 2023:

DT - Hayward/Ridgeway

NT - Robinson/Adams

DE - Leal/Kpassagnon

DBs 2023:

CB1 - Wallace

CB2 - Sutton

CB3 - Hodges-Tomlinson

FS - Fitzpatrick

SS - Johnson

Edited December 12, 2022 by warfelg

[warfelg]

So, I know it's Fanspeak and PFF, but I decided to use the two together to build a mock offseason:

CUTS -

William Jackson III, Mitchell Trubisky, Ahkello Witherspoon, Gunner Olszewski, Pressley Harvin, Carlins Patel, and my "surprise" cut - Montravius Adams

Restructures -

TJ Watt, Chukwuma Okorafor

RESIGNINGS (1st year hit) -

Terrell Edmunds - $3,000,000

Cameron Sutton - $4,875,000

FREE AGENCY SIGNINGS - 

Jarvis Landry - $6,400,000 = I likely overpaid for Landry, but he's a vet presence that can be our WR2/3.  Basically seeing that Pickens is our WR1, you can flip flop Johnson and Landry at WR2 with Landry being the primary slot.  Then Austin becomes your "gadget" player at the position.

Jack Conklin - $10,125,000 = He's my one of 3 "BIG" signings with the $44mil in space I had.  I'm going into this with a plan explained in the post above.  Conklin to RT, Chucks to LT in a battle or gapstop.  He brings the mean and edge as a blocker in the run game at the RT position along with skill in the passing game.

Wes Schweitzer - $6,300,000 = He's my version of @Dcash4's call for Daniels last year.  Get him and plug him at LG and the interior of the line is fixed.

Kyle Van Noy - $2,625,000 = I would like a nice small scale EDGE signing here to rotate in with our guys.  Van Noy isn't a stud by any means, but he's got a history with Flores, and brings a steady ability at the position.

A'Shawn Robinson - $7,200,000 = He's signing 2 of my 3 big signings.  He's enough of a pass rusher to be a threat, but he's a run stuffing NT.  He's a guy who can play when we use the 3-4 or 2-4 or 3-3 alignment.

James Bradberry - $7,500,000 = He's a stopgap CB1 for us, and the 3rd of the 3 big signings.  Along with Sutton and Wallace it gives a set top 3, and allows us to go into the draft without having to need to get a CB in the draft.  We can do what we planned to do this year anyways with a more steady CB1.

Nick Mullens - $1,600,000 = Need a backup QB.  He's a pocket passer with a tiny bit of mobility that's needed.

DRAFT STRATEGY -

Ok, want to go through what I'm looking at in the draft.  Because I like where I'm sitting.  No glaring need, but plenty of places to improve.  I can go LT if I want, but between Conklin, Okorafor, and Moore; I know I can go into the season and feel ok.

But what it does on a bigger scale to me is allows for movement up or down the board based on wants and who's where in the draft.  I'm going to look to move something along the line to potentially get something in the future.

This is a significant departure from the last few years where we've gone into the draft with a major first round need somewhere.  I feel much more comfortable going into this knowing I have some guys who aren't set for long and if I take their replacement early, it's ok.

OF NOTE - I PROJECT US TO BE DRAFTING 8th BASED ON BETTING LINES THROUGH THE END OF THE SEASON.

DRAFT -

PICK 8 - We're sitting here on the clock.  The top 5 on the board according to PFF are Will Levis, Quentin Johnston, Nolan Smith, Tyree Wilson, Cam Smith.  I'm ok with that grouping, with Nolan Smith being the leader in the house.  

The next 6 are Jordan Addison, Kelee Ringo, Brian Branch, Michael Mayer, Paris Johnson, Tanner McKee.

There's 11 calls coming in.  Indianapolis at 14, Atlanta at 15, Los Angeles Chargers are the 3 I'm taking serious.  Baltimore at 21, Tennessee at 26, Dallas at 27, Buffalo at 28, would take a haul to get me to move. Carolina at 36, New Orleans at 37, Cleveland at 42 are getting hung up on as it's too much.  I'm most likely willing to take a call from Atlanta, as I would be willing to bet one of N Smith, C Smith, Addison, Ringo, Johnson will be there and I can get a decent return.

After 2 back and forth rounds I have a deal:

Pittsburgh trades 8.

Atlanta trades 15, 142, 2023 1st, 2023 3rd.

PICK 15 - It's so easy in these simulators to get caught up in the bump down game and continually move down and get more and more, but that's not realistic, so I'm not taking a phone call here.

I've got 5 guys on the board that care Rank or ADP top 15 -

Quentin Johnston, Tyree Wilson, Kelee Ringo, Brian Branch, Michael Mayer.

I'm down to two players:

Johnston - 6'4" 215 - WR - He does not move like this big of a guy.  He's got a ton of wiggle and a professional route runner.  On top of that he's got the ability to high point a ball really well and will likely run a 4.4 40.  Not gonna lie, having 2 6'3"+ WRs that run 4.4's is such an intoxicating idea.

Ringo - 6'2" 210 - CB - Great man corner who's very fluid and can mirror really well.  Strong enough that he can reroute someone really easy.  He also has the size and strength to be a good run support corner, not just a cover guy.

I take 2 antacids because I need it making this decision.

With the 15th pick in the 2022 NFL draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select Quentin Johnston WR TCU

I feel confident in finding a CB elsewhere and knowing that the draft does have depth.  Landry is a stop gap and Johnson is likely in his last year.  Plus giving Kenny 3 huge rangy physical targets in Johnston, Pickens, Freiermuth is just to intoxicating.  I can't pass that up.

PICK 33 - I only have 1 call for a trade, pick 64 from Houston. I say thanks but no thanks.

Interesting top of the board.  Tyree Wilson is more of a 7T edge than a 9T edge or a 3/5T DT.  Brian Branch and Jaylon Jones are here for the taking.  Jared Verse seems like a good bet to be a base end in a 4-3 as well despite having more of a 3-4 edge build.  Anthony Richardson is a QB and not a need, and yet again Christian Gonzalez is just drawing the short stick being behind the other guys.

With the 33rd pick in the 2022 NFL draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select Jaylon Jones CB Texas A&M

I'm really happy with the way this falls.  Jones is a top 7 CB to me, but also the top S on my board.  Having the 2023 backfield set defensively, this would allow my to go into the season and let Jones find his place.  Either way I think he can be a stud, this just doesn't force him into a position too soon.  Can be used as a big nickel early, and possibly take over for Wallace by the end of the season.

PICK 39 - A plethora of calls, but I'm more interested in Seattle calling with pick 47 in hand.  I got a gut feeling my draft target here would be available at that pick.  I got one offensive and one defensive target, both with ADP at about 47.

Open the call with asking for 47, 135, 2023 2nd for 39 and 2023 3rd via Atlanta.

I'm a little surprised.  They say yes.

PICK 47 - This pick is easy.  I kinda left a hole on the defense.  Myles Jack is back, but I was super confident for being able to get this one.

With the 47th pick in the 2022 NFL draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select Drew Sanders LB Arkansas

Sanders is a combo EDGE/ILB with ILB being his NFL position.  He's tall and lanky at 6'5" but also weighs in at 240. He's got some work in working on coverage but that's to be understood.  Once he understands how to use his physical tools off the line, he's got a chance at being elite.

PICK 71 - Not super interested in moving down at this point.  I'm interested in Blake Freeland at OT, but I think his NFL position is OG, and I'm not interested in that. First here's the pick, then I'll explain:

With the 71st pick in the 2022 NFL draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select Mike Morris DL Michigan

Such a unique player, Morris is 6'6" 295 pounds, but plays NT just as well as 2 point stance edge.  But mostly I see shades of Tuitt when I see Morris play, and I hope we could mold him in that way.  Too much wiggle for interior OL, too long and powerful for OT to handle.  Him and Leal would make me feel good about the future of the position.

PICK 103 - There's a lot of different ways to go here.  I kinda want to lean to and edge like KJ Henry or Laiatu Latu, but Morris and Sanders bring pass rush.  Could look back to offense with Tucker Kraft or Roschon Johnson.

But I decide to "reach" according to PFF. I go to their 149th best prospect, 114th ADP player.  A OT who's really raw, but can be special with time to grow.  He's a perfect pick based on how I designed the line with FA.

With the 103rd pick in the 2022 NFL draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select Jaelyn Duncan OT Maryland

He's a big, strong, light footed OT.  He can be a stud there like I said.  Being able to sit behind Okorafor and Conklin, and having Moore who can come in for injury means Jaelyn can spend a year focused on his skillset.  Heck I would use him as an eligible guy in heavy packages to get him on the field.

PICK 135 - I'm looking complementary player here from a smaller school.  We hope Najee has a bounce back year in 2023, and Warren is a nice complement, but brings more of the same; no breakaway power runner.  Snell is a FA and there's no other back.

With the 135th pick in the 2022 NFL draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select Tyjae Spears RB Tulane

He's a smaller shiftier complementary back.  If he can learn to pass protect, he'll be a nice Sproles like complement to Najee/Warren who are more pounders of the ball.

PICK 142 - With the 142nd pick in the 2022 NFL draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select Tuli Tuipulotu EDGE USC

At this point we could use a true edge guy, as the other two front 7 players are better suited for other positions.  Having an extra edge guy behind Van Noy would be a good development position for us.

PICK 167 - With the 167th pick in the 2022 NFL draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select Henry To'oTo'o LB Alabama

I think we still need another LB.  He's all over the board, but I would run to the podium for To'oTo'o at this point of the draft.

PICK 199 - With the 199th pick in the 2022 NFL draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select Jalen Wayne WR South Alabama

He has the ability to be kinda Jerricho Cotchery like at the slot, but this is more a shot on a high floor guy.  He's a 6th year senior so you are hoping for someone who can come in and understand a job.

[MOSteelers56]

I hope we can get Duncan, Sanders, Tuipulotu, and To'o To'o where you have them going. I like Morris from Michigan. He's an interesting player. Huge EDGE type, so is Tuipulotu. I'd be fine with either or both. It would be a haul for sure. 

[mwalker]

I like your picks, but no way Tuipulotu or To'o To'o last that long.
Duncan might not either.

[AFF]

@warfelg

Interesting offseason…I know you beat the drum of them moving Okrafor to LT but I’ll believe it when I see it.

2 things I’m starting to believe…

1)DL might be the biggest need on the team and should be addressed in FA….(Hargraves-Payne?)

2)Sutton needs resigned IMO…I’d make it a point to bring back all 3 of Sutton/Edmunds/Kazee if possible.

[warfelg]

10 minutes ago, AFF said:

@warfelg

Interesting offseason…I know you beat the drum of them moving Okrafor to LT but I’ll believe it when I see it.

2 things I’m starting to believe…

1)DL might be the biggest need on the team and should be addressed in FA….(Hargraves-Payne?)

2)Sutton needs resigned IMO…I’d make it a point to bring back all 3 of Sutton/Edmunds/Kazee if possible.

I’m not a Okorafor to LT drum beater. This is the first time I’ve used that thought. I tend to see him as a pure RT at this point. Same thing happened to Marcus Gilbert. 

[AFF]

6 minutes ago, warfelg said:

I’m not a Okorafor to LT drum beater. This is the first time I’ve used that thought. I tend to see him as a pure RT at this point. Same thing happened to Marcus Gilbert. 

You’ve stated it several times with discussions we’ve had cause you always bring up signing Conklin for RT with it….I can’t bring up the exact times but it’s been stated several times.

[warfelg]

12 minutes ago, AFF said:

You’ve stated it several times with discussions we’ve had cause you always bring up signing Conklin for RT with it….I can’t bring up the exact times but it’s been stated several times.

Just once because I was in drafting a LT at the same time and the dislike of 3 new player on the line was brought back. 

[jebrick]

3 hours ago, warfelg said:

PICK 142 - With the 142nd pick in the 2022 NFL draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select Tuli Tuipulotu EDGE USC

Tuli is going in the 1st round.  He is one of the top pass rushers in this draft.  6'4 290lb and can play in a 2 point stance.  Can play 3, 7 or 9 tech.

 

That would be  dream off season and draft but it ain't happening.

Edited December 12, 2022 by jebrick

[warfelg]

19 minutes ago, jebrick said:

Tuli is going in the 1st round.  He is one of the top pass rushers in this draft.  6'4 290lb and can play in a 2 point stance.  Can play 3, 7 or 9 tech.

 

That would be  dream off season and draft but it ain't happening.

Can only do what PFF has. 

[43M]

Not a huge fan of the hyper unrealistic mocks with more trades in one draft than we have made in 10 years combined.    Just for fun, I get that...but not a realistic look at what could happen.

With a new GM, I could see more movement, but not that significant.

I hate WR in rd 1.    We cant keep focusing on glamour positions.   Addison is literally the only WR Id consider in the first 2 rounds, for obvious reasons...and even then I dont love it.

Fix trenches and secondary this draft, and supplement the other areas with FAs and late picks.   Not that I wouldnt take a player at another position who falls, but Id much rather see us take two OL, two DL or two DBs in the first 2 rounds than draft a WR or TE.

[warfelg]

1 minute ago, 43M said:

Fix trenches and secondary this draft, and supplement the other areas with FAs and late picks. 

That’s what we’ve done the last 5 years. It ain’t working. 

[43M]

46 minutes ago, warfelg said:

That’s what we’ve done the last 5 years. It ain’t working. 

???

Where exactly have we addressed trenches and secondary with early picks in recent memory?  Aside from trading for Minkah and laughably reaching on Edmunds, Im not sure.

No, we have, however, spent multiple 2nd and 3rd rd picks on WR, and the last four 1st and 2nd round picks have been spent on QB, RB, WR and TE. 

The year before that, we spent a 2nd round pick on a WR.

The year before that, we spent a very early 3rd round pick on a WR.

The year before that, we spent a 2nd round pick on a WR.  We also significantly reached on a DB.

The year before that, we spent a 2nd round pick on a WR.

The year before that, we significantly reached on a DB.

And I could keep going.   Over the last decade, most of our early picks have went towards WR, LB and mediocre defensive back prospects we overdrafted.

THAT is what "aint working".

PS...Lets be real, most of the last 10 years was Rooney, Colbert and Tomlin bending over for Big Ben, trying oh so hard not to hurt his precious wittle feewings.    

Edited December 13, 2022 by 43M

[warfelg]

4 minutes ago, 43M said:

???

Where exactly have we addressed trenches and secondary with early picks in recent memory?  Aside from trading for Minkah and laughably reaching on Edmunds, Im not sure.

No, we have, however, spent multiple 2nd and 3rd rd picks on WR, and the last four 1st and 2nd round picks have been spent on QB, RB, WR and TE. 

The year before that, we spent a 2nd round pick on a WR.

The year before that, we spent a very early 3rd round pick on a WR.

The year before that, we spent a 2nd round pick on a WR.  We also significantly reached on a DB.

The year before that, we spent a 2nd round pick on a WR.

The year before that, we significantly reached on a DB.

And I could keep going.   Over the last decade, most of our early picks have went towards WR, LB and mediocre defensive back prospects we overdrafted.

THAT is what "aint working".

Not that. The “fix through the draft and supplement through FA”. Screw that. We’re a talentless crap team with cap space. Sign players you know can perform.