State of the Steelers

[warfelg]

5 minutes ago, Chieferific said:

Maybe part of it but they have him ranked #61. 

For all these simulators it’s a combination of big board and how people draft them. When people don’t know someone like Tuli, they pick him later and later giving an artificially low grade. It’s kinda like how they grade trades where any move up is an automatic C or lower because you give up draft picks, but it’s almost impossible to get above a B because of the players you give up. 
 

I miss the college days when I had time to look at all the teams needs and just do my own 3 round mock. These simulators are decent tools for learning later round players, nothing more than entertainment otherwise. 
 

Take PFF for example. I ran it 10 times one day. The Bears should be getting a kings ransom for 1. Instead they traded out 1 time to 3 for an extra 4th, and took Anderson 5 times and Carter the other 4. And then Houston took Carter in 3 of those sims and Anderson in 2. 

So because the system runs on odds of pick and what fans do, the PFF simulator  things there a 50% chance the draft starts with Carter and Anderson being the top 2 picks. PFN has the same flaws in it too, but is slightly better at trades. 
 

Fanspeak charges for the version with trades, but IMO is the better one for accuracy. It’s built on matching a needs database with a big board database and picking based on that. 

[Chieferific]

2 minutes ago, warfelg said:

For all these simulators it’s a combination of big board and how people draft them. When people don’t know someone like Tuli, they pick him later and later giving an artificially low grade. It’s kinda like how they grade trades where any move up is an automatic C or lower because you give up draft picks, but it’s almost impossible to get above a B because of the players you give up. 
 

I miss the college days when I had time to look at all the teams needs and just do my own 3 round mock. These simulators are decent tools for learning later round players, nothing more than entertainment otherwise. 
 

Take PFF for example. I ran it 10 times one day. The Bears should be getting a kings ransom for 1. Instead they traded out 1 time to 3 for an extra 4th, and took Anderson 5 times and Carter the other 4. And then Houston took Carter in 3 of those sims and Anderson in 2. 

So because the system runs on odds of pick and what fans do, the PFF simulator  things there a 50% chance the draft starts with Carter and Anderson being the top 2 picks. PFN has the same flaws in it too, but is slightly better at trades. 
 

Fanspeak charges for the version with trades, but IMO is the better one for accuracy. It’s built on matching a needs database with a big board database and picking based on that. 

Interesting, I didn't know the rankings were partly based on fan simulations.  I just assumed it was where the PFF "experts" ranked the player.  That explains a lot.  

[warfelg]

8 minutes ago, Chieferific said:

Interesting, I didn't know the rankings were partly based on fan simulations.  I just assumed it was where the PFF "experts" ranked the player.  That explains a lot.  

Next time you do one, the third tab over the player selections is “Analysis” (IIRC) and it basically tells you of who’s left, who fans are picking the most. If you go off that board, I’m willing to bet the best grade you can get it a B-.

I Think it was Matt Miller who did a deep diva a few years ago, and basically asked if he could manipulate the system to get a QB to drop. And over the course of 2-3 days he got a top 5 QB to be available at 10. 

[Dcash4]

2 hours ago, 43M said:

If you disagree, so be it....but its laughably obtuse if you legitimately cant understand arguments to the contrary.

Not sure why you went so hard on the GM process of last season. Not what I am commenting on in the quote. I am asking how the new regime isn't actually set up for success going into this season. Everyone signed last year is extremely cuttable if you don't like them, we didn't lose any major draft capital with last ditch effort trades, and our cash flow moving forward is looking good. 

How are the GMs not set up for success?

And I don't want to get into this anymore than we did in the off-season, but it seems you still don't get it was never "this is a good decision" vs "this is a bad decision". I never felt strongly one way or the other. I just couldn't understand how you guys felt SO strongly that it was the most awful, terrible, puppy-kicking decision that could ever be made. I never ignored issues, but a lot of them were overblown (the idea that things wouldn't fit a new vision, when it's still Tomlins vision) or unknown (draft capital trades, contract overpays, etc). Now that we sit a year removed and the nightmares really didn't happen I am not sure I would advocate doing this again, but I also wouldn't rank it ahead of murder on list of things that are awful against humanity. 

The post I commented back on "We should not have done much and focused on setting up the new GM". I am just curious how we didn't accomplish that with last off-season; regardless of who made the decisions or the process it took to get there. Maybe they are not 5 steps ahead, but they definitely were not put behind by the outgoing regime. If anything, they have a pretty blank slate moving forward and an elevated floor to work from. 

Edited January 29, 2023 by Dcash4

[AFF]

2 hours ago, 43M said:

Yeah.

We were in "win now mode" for about 5 or 6 years at the end of Ben's career and we never treated it as such.   We always looked to the future as much as the present.   

Now, this is a team much moreso set up for the future than the present.   This team has alot of growing to do, and isnt as close as some people on here believe they are.  Again, sure, if Kenny has a monster leap in year 2, it could happen, but thats a massive IF, especially under Canada.

Any massive trades for guys like Ramsey or Hopkins would make no ******* sense at this point.   Those are the types of trades we should have made between 2016 and 2021.

If anything, use that same draft capital and trade up for a guy like Jalen Carter you could build around for a decade.    Not saying we should do that either, but Id much rather see that than trading high picks for a vet pushing 30.

I would only consider Ramsey if they draft pick capital was low…at least he’s 28 and signed for 3 more years.

Hopkins is a trap…already 30 and wants a new extension on top.

I know it’s a long shot and I’ve stated it before but I hope they pull Eagles/Bills type of move for Their young QB and go get a stud soon to be FA WR…Justin Jefferson is line for a huge extension next offseason and the Vikes may be rebuilding by then.

I know he would probably cost something like 5/$175 mill but I’d pony up my 1st+more for him.

[warfelg]

3 hours ago, 43M said:

Your argument about trading up for Pickett makes no sense.   You have no idea how the offseason would have went under them.   Pickett may have not even been the pick.  We may have brought in an entirely different set of free agents.   Alot of decisions may have been made differently. 

This is my issue.  By taking the QB, back loading a few of these short deals, and not having the successor at least named to have input, 2022 was a Colbert team.  I’m more annoyed seeing (and had said this at first) this team do just enough to yet again be just good enough to be right there, and the blame get placed on Tomlin.  I get your standpoint that Tomlin has his hand in picking, and who knows maybe he had a bigger say.  But IMO this past offseason felt like Colbert trying to put his signature on the future of the team rather than telling the next GM “your set up to do what you want”.

On Reddit I saw the same thing come up and someone went to the Ravens and Newsome running one last draft, but the difference is that DeCosta was already named as Newsome’s replacement and they were running it together.  We still saw outsiders as possibilities at that point, Brandon Hunt (who we all knew was out the door) was still a big voice in the room, and Khan (while involved) had never run a draft as far as we know.

Like, I know some like to say whatever with the cap, but it still limits how much you can spend. Even if you cut Jack, Trubisky, Witherspoon, and Olszewski, you have $6,635,000 in dead cap.  That’s 6 guys not playing for you that account for the cap space of a year 1 hit of 1 above average starter.  That could be your rotational DE, your 3rd EDGE guy, your starting LG.

On the flip, I think we’ve seen some very screwed cap movement from Khan.  I think if it were Colbert with Ogunjobi we would have seen a second year with a void in it, where Khan got it done as a 1 year deal by giving a bigger signing bonus.  DJ’s extension forwarding money to this year to give an out after 2023’s season is over.  Getting William Jacksons contract to have no dead money tied to it at all for 2023 in that trade.  Like to me, those are little signs that this isn’t going to be ‘business as usual’ when it comes to the offseason.

But tying this back to @AFF‘s point that I was responding to, which is this team is set up to be in a really good position for after the 2023 season.  In a known transition year we shouldn’t be saying that.  We should be saying “we’re in really good position for Khan to make his imprint now”. Not wait another year to really see his finger prints.  And even at that, he’s kinda hand tied for another year after that if Pickett is just ok and not good or great because you are going to need to wait and see if he develops at “just ok”.  

Basically the long story short is: I don’t hate Colbert (never even uttered those words), rather I think he’s rather overrated and given unjust credit, especially in the last 10 years.  I think that more should have been done to have his successor in place and named before 2022’s offseason to have much more involvement.  It’s not like the successor or change over in the scouting department would be people who never worked off of a scouting report before (that’s why I was never up on the “but changes to the board” argument).  

[warfelg]

45 minutes ago, AFF said:

I know it’s a long shot and I’ve stated it before but I hope they pull Eagles/Bills type of move for Their young QB and go get a stud soon to be FA WR…Justin Jefferson is line for a huge extension next offseason and the Vikes may be rebuilding by then.

Jefferson is an interesting one to watch over the next year because the Vikings are a downward trending team IMO.  But one I would really watch with the Vikings this year is that Adam Theilen might be a cap casualty this offseason, and I wouldn’t mind a run at him for a year to be the slot WR.  Downside is he is 32 and clearly in decline, but the upside is that I think he’s a guy that the entire WR room would respect from day 1.

[43M]

6 minutes ago, warfelg said:

Jefferson is an interesting one to watch over the next year because the Vikings are a downward trending team IMO.  But one I would really watch with the Vikings this year is that Adam Theilen might be a cap casualty this offseason, and I wouldn’t mind a run at him for a year to be the slot WR.  Downside is he is 32 and clearly in decline, but the upside is that I think he’s a guy that the entire WR room would respect from day 1.

I dont mind SIGNING an aging vet to be a stop gap and mentor for young players.   Theilen would be decent for our WR corps for a year or 2.

I really wish there was a Flozell Adams type signing we could make on the OLine given how young that group is.

[warfelg]

12 minutes ago, 43M said:

I dont mind SIGNING an aging vet to be a stop gap and mentor for young players.   Theilen would be decent for our WR corps for a year or 2.

I really wish there was a Flozell Adams type signing we could make on the OLine given how young that group is.

I thought Trai Turner would/could end up being that for us.

[DR43]

My updated mock:
Round 1: Kelee Ringo Georgia CB
Round 2a: Noah Sewell Oregon ILB
Round 2b: Dawand Jones Ohio State OT
Round 3: Jaquelin Roy LSU NT
Round 4: Ronnie Bell Michigan WR
Round 7a: Brenton Cox Jr. Florida EDGE
Round 7b: Jason Taylor II Oklahoma State S

[warfelg]

39 minutes ago, DR43 said:

My updated mock:
Round 1: Kelee Ringo Georgia CB
Round 2a: Noah Sewell Oregon ILB
Round 2b: Dawand Jones Ohio State OT
Round 3: Jaquelin Roy LSU NT
Round 4: Ronnie Bell Michigan WR
Round 7a: Brenton Cox Jr. Florida EDGE
Round 7b: Jason Taylor II Oklahoma State S

Too early for Sewell and Jones is strictly a RT, so not a fan of those picks.

[3rivers]

6 hours ago, 43M said:

At the end of the day, it doesnt matter though.    IMO, and the opinion of many others, Colbert shouldn't have had all the power last offseason, and Weidl/Khan should have been in place much sooner.    If you disagree, so be it....but its laughably obtuse if you legitimately cant understand arguments to the contrary.

 With how our draft went, I think (for a change) Colbert did well early in the draft and maybe later as well. I am liking the way the 22' draft went, so a nice farewell IMO.  KP was a good pick and of course Pickens , Heyward and the rest look to contribute in a good way unlike in many other years

Khan better not have any tricks up his sleeve like Hood,  jarvis, artie, and a few others over the years. bud took 4 years to be decent,  4 years is a waste for a RD1 pick, and that costs the team overall. 

[3rivers]

2 hours ago, 43M said:

I dont mind SIGNING an aging vet to be a stop gap and mentor for young players.   Theilen would be decent for our WR corps for a year or 2.

I really wish there was a Flozell Adams type signing we could make on the OLine given how young that group is.

this would be ideal, Theilen would be great but I would expect other teams to line up and then he picks and choses.

as for Flo, just remembering how they released him and put ben's pal colon in there instead, then opening day vs ravens ben almost got killed.  Of course  colon also got IR's in week 1 and ben was running for his life all season and we never even made the playoffs. 

[Chieferific]

1 hour ago, warfelg said:

Too early for Sewell and Jones is strictly a RT, so not a fan of those picks.

Fun Fact, Ringo was available @ #49 in a PFF mock I did.  Not all that important.  Just adding more context to our previous discussion. 

[3rivers]

4 hours ago, AFF said:

I would only consider Ramsey if they draft pick capital was low…at least he’s 28 and signed for 3 more years.

Hopkins is a trap…already 30 and wants a new extension on top.

I know it’s a long shot and I’ve stated it before but I hope they pull Eagles/Bills type of move for Their young QB and go get a stud soon to be FA WR…Justin Jefferson is line for a huge extension next offseason and the Vikes may be rebuilding by then.

I know he would probably cost something like 5/$175 mill but I’d pony up my 1st+more for him.

am I in the minority here by being against signing these elite players for their  mega deals most of the time? There are  exceptions of course, but the other pieces need to be in place or most of them. Jefferson is great, but $35M on a WR does take a bit of the cap space away from others and WR typically does require a QB and OL as well. Still haven't seen a WR throw to themselves, QB chemistry + stability needs to be in place.  What did AB do when he left Ben? Just an example. 

Agree Hopkins would be a trap,  and then consider the suspension and if that happens again and the effect that would have. 

I like the Eagles approach , lots of really good players, both young and old, drafted and UFA and then a few special players.  Maybe we can follow this over the next few years . 

so are you saying pony up 1st + more, that seems conservative. I would expect Jefferson to get much more than that. I don't even know of Dionte +Najee + RD1 +Jackson + jack would get the trade done. Can you imagine what the vikings would get for him? It would be the Hershel Walker trade for this century most likely. I'd rather have a lot of really good players  and dominate the trenches.