State of the Steelers

[jebrick]

12 hours ago, warfelg said:

In the early 2000’s the Steelers we’re running a 3-4 no one else ran where both Edge guys were droppers and rushers. And small DTs could 3T. He used Woodley (4-5 rd grade) and Heyward (late 2nd) as examples of guys no team valued but Colbert knew they fit his needs.

The Steelers run a hybrid most of the time now like a lot of other " 3-4" teams.  5 techs still drop in the draft and that is what Heyward was viewed as when he was drafted.  A non-pass rushing DE.  They struggle with projecting that now as 99% of the colleges just want 1 gap penetrators so you have to project any Dline into the Steeler system.

 

Now Tomlin likes to gamble in the draft on athletes. @warfelg pointed this out when he said that Tomlin liked SPARQ guys and Colbert liked stats and you can tell who made that pick based on that.  Sometimes the SPARQ guys work out ( Timmons, Shazier) and sometimes they do not ( Burns).  Wait post combine for the SPARQ list to come out and you can find some Steeler draft picks.

[warfelg]

1 hour ago, jebrick said:

The Steelers run a hybrid most of the time now like a lot of other " 3-4" teams.  5 techs still drop in the draft and that is what Heyward was viewed as when he was drafted.  A non-pass rushing DE.  They struggle with projecting that now as 99% of the colleges just want 1 gap penetrators so you have to project any Dline into the Steeler system.

 

Now Tomlin likes to gamble in the draft on athletes. @warfelg pointed this out when he said that Tomlin liked SPARQ guys and Colbert liked stats and you can tell who made that pick based on that.  Sometimes the SPARQ guys work out ( Timmons, Shazier) and sometimes they do not ( Burns).  Wait post combine for the SPARQ list to come out and you can find some Steeler draft picks.

Yea I meant to type 5T. 
 

I would also put Burns as more of the Colbert style pick IMO. Underclassman coming out early he expected to sit a year and develop? That was the Colbert special. Issue was the CBs sucked so much you needed someone to start asap. 
 

Edit:

You got me wanting to look through not just 1st round picks but most picks at their SPARQ and RAS scored and see where they land. I’m really curious because I feel like a lot of the high score guys actually sis well. 

Edited January 27, 2023 by warfelg

[3rivers]

11 hours ago, AFF said:

11 hours ago, warfelg said:

Trying to sneak a 7th rounder out of somebody is my guess…if they bring him back at his full cap hit next year, that be indefensible…

I thought for sure they would either trade or cut Mitch. Now what if KP gets hurt or misses several games? Will there be another thread for top 10 draft pick? I can't see  the team winning many games with mitch, what nfl team ever has. He was good in emergency role vs the bucs but that was it. 

AR2 better be thinking of trading him. If he is actually serious, this offseason and team going forward could be a sinking ship.  why colbert signed mitch in the first place is beyond me.  Dobbs would be better and less costly.  There have to be other options out there for QB , even some rook undrafted would be better , because we saw the TO's and missed targets too often and thats just the way mitch plays.  Much rather have Mason than mitch as well. 

Sign Dalton,  he's still good 'enough' . mitch has never been good 'at all (as a starter)' . This isn't MLB, we don't have designated closers that play the last few series of games

 

 

 

[3rivers]

15 hours ago, warfelg said:

Timmons?!? Not really the guy I would single out there with Hood right at the top of your head. 
 

they got Woodley and that was a good pick but a no brainer IMO. 

when they drafted Hood, who was the player they actually wanted that year that was taken?

then of course there was jarvis and dupree

15 hours ago, 43M said:

Was no secret they hard targeted Revis in 2007 and were clearly lost when the Jets leap frogged them to get him

so we would have actually had a CB go to the pro bowl for the first time since ?

 

8 hours ago, AFF said:

Marvin Jones might be a sneaky 1-2 year type of deal…I don’t think they go after 1 of Slayton/Juju/Meyers/Lazard even though I’d probably be fine with it.

what would he cost. TY might also help,  a bit older but proven to be able to catch, something us recent

steeler fans have to reiterate for some reason 

3 hours ago, 43M said:

If they don’t add anybody of note in FA, they’ll use 1 of their top 50 picks on a WR.

this is to be seen, to verify if that was colberts doing or not.  By already keeping canada and mitch, this offseason is almost already on it's way to burying the needle on the failometer.  May as well sign artie burns next .  Maybe they trade Highsmith and bring back dupree to help keep paying mitch the clipboard technician

[3rivers]

1 hour ago, warfelg said:

I would also put Burns as more of the Colbert style pick IMO. Underclassman coming out early he expected to sit a year and develop? That was the Colbert special. Issue was the CBs sucked so much you needed someone to start asap. 

remembering these  days years  .  This is why  you make a trade for a vet or opt for UFA, instead they kept "building through  the draft" , and what they built was a really bad pass defence which wasted the team away. 

[warfelg]

@jebrick I did a little dive into top 3 round picks that we've made since Tomlin became HC.  I couldn't find SPARQ/RAS scores much past 2013, so it's spotty.  2014 is when we really implemented using those scores. (this was done relative to position or all linemen would do really bad)

130+ score = Elite NFL Athlete :: Lawrence Timmons, Jason Worilds, Ryan Shazier, Dri Archer, Bud Dupree, Sammie Coats, Sean Davis, TJ Watt, Terrell Edmunds, Devin Bush, Chase Claypool.

116-130 = Very good NFL Athlete :: LaMarr Woodley, Cameron Heyward, Le'Veon Bell, Javon Hargrave, Stephon Tuitt, Juju Smith-Schuester, Chukwuma Okorafor, Alex Highsmith

100-115 = Average NFL Athlete :: Jarvis Jones, Markus Wheaton, Senquez Goldson, Artie Burns, Cameron Sutton, James Conner, James Washington, Diontae Johnson

100 and under = Below Average NFL Athlete :: Mason Rudoluph, Justin Layne

Elite Group Busts :: Archer, Coats, Davis, Bush

Very Good Busts :: None

Average Busts :: JJ, Wheaton, Goldson, Burns, Washington

Below Average Busts :: Both

 

Maybe taking the high SPARQ/RAS score guys does work as it's the below ones that don't pan out at a higher rate.  Post combine when you get SPARQ/RAS scores will lead to our targets.  I really think Tomlin's view is you can ask someone who's really athletic to learn almost everything, where an average or below athlete is always going to be limited in what they can do.

[jebrick]

SPARQ leads to targets in the 1st round.  That seems to be the round that Tomlin has the most influence.

Again, we do not know how the draft room will function under the new FO but the OC and DC have big says on day 2 and the other coaches on day 3.

 

I can't believe Javis Jones made it to average athlete.

[warfelg]

Just now, jebrick said:

SPARQ leads to targets in the 1st round.  That seems to be the round that Tomlin has the most influence.

Again, we do not know how the draft room will function under the new FO but the OC and DC have big says on day 2 and the other coaches on day 3.

 

I can't believe Javis Jones made it to average athlete.

I feel like by looking at that list you can also say Tomlin has had a positive impact on early round draft picks with his view.  I almost feel like you can tell who are Colbert guys really easily based on those SPARQ/RAS scores.

I'll try to find an article, but the Eagles went heavy SPARQ/RAS based when Weidl got there, so my guess is they did that and Khan is aligned with the SPARQ/RAS score concept.  I think we might see it pushed a little deeper as well to take out positional coach say in picks.

[jebrick]

25 minutes ago, 3rivers said:

when they drafted Hood, who was the player they actually wanted that year that was taken?

That was a black hole of a draft for all teams.  They needed a NT and took a huge reach.  i think that pick is what lead to LeBeau getting retired.

[AFF]

4 hours ago, 43M said:

Yep....gotta keep drafting WR early.     Im sure in 20 or so years, we'll finally have that elite WR corps we apparently so desperately need.

 

While a lot of people think the Steelers are so great at drafting mid round WRs, they’ve had their fair share of misses.

However also a factor is that they usually ended up not resigning them after their rookie deals thus needing more.

I understand your point but the salary cap had some part of the constant need to draft one.

I prefer actually spending $$$ on a solid vet this time around but I doubt that happens.

[warfelg]

4 minutes ago, AFF said:

However also a factor is that they usually ended up not resigning them after their rookie deals thus needing more.

I understand your point but the salary cap had some part of the constant need to draft one.

This part is sorely missed. Personally I’m of the opinion that you shouldn’t spend more than $30mil AAV between WR1-3. 
 

On top of that role guys (gadget/deep) is something that should stay rookie contracts. Spending on those type of guys ultimately lead to disappointment. 
 

If you look at what the Steelers have done, it kinda fits that. 

[43M]

52 minutes ago, AFF said:

While a lot of people think the Steelers are so great at drafting mid round WRs, they’ve had their fair share of misses.

However also a factor is that they usually ended up not resigning them after their rookie deals thus needing more.

I understand your point but the salary cap had some part of the constant need to draft one.

I prefer actually spending $$$ on a solid vet this time around but I doubt that happens.

I actually agree 100% with everything in this post.

The key issue that it overlooks, however, is that we have regularly neglected more dire needs in favor of trying to build a top WR corps, and it has absolutely not worked out.   

We currently have a pretty good WR corps RELATIVE to the rest of the league, and it has enough young potential to get evem better.  Im absolutely in favor of trying to improve it, but at some point, you have to start placing these resources into other areas.   We have already seen the results of drafting WRs early year after year, and it has not paid off.

Like I said....if we were in position to add a blue chip or even near  blue chip WR prospect that complimented Pickens well, Id probably be more on board with that.  

We arent in that position, though.

And when does it end?    We draft WR early this year.    Then say Dionte walks next year?    Draft another one early next year?    Then Austin doesn't pan out....so another one in 2025?

More than that, I think we are going to be running it a good bit more, especially if our running game keeps clicking like it was at the end of 22...and this is a good year to really address trenches and secondary. 

Bottom line...if WR is a big need next offseason, fine, lets go get one, but I think we have to take advantage of the position we are in to improve other areas we are clearly weaker at.

THAT ALL BEING SAID, I wont be shocked if we go WR early, and it will just prove to me that **** really isnt going to change here anytime soon.

[jebrick]

This is not really a good draft for WR.  I am sure there will be some decent ones in the latter rounds but it is not a really good class.

[Dcash4]

I have never had a problem that they draft a receiver each year. You need 5 on a roster, you can carry 6 no problem, they fill a variety of functions, and rookie deals are cost effective. 

My issue is that you continually use premier picks each year. Like, maybe if you just took a Z only receiver with pick 60, don't take another Z only receiver at pick 49 two years later?

[3rivers]

3 hours ago, jebrick said:

That was a black hole of a draft for all teams.  They needed a NT and took a huge reach.  i think that pick is what lead to LeBeau getting retired.

it might not have been the ideal pick, but IIRC our corners were the  weakness back then, and they never did much about it.   I thought LeBeau got shown the door since his scheme was too complicated (redshirting rooks ) and the better teams had it figured out. 

 

4 hours ago, jebrick said:

I can't believe Javis Jones made it to average athlete.

one of the worst RD1 picks in the last few decades, but of course he came from a major program and also had decent stats so that is somewhat understood to be a factor. He never liked the gym though,  so how did they let that slide?

 

3 hours ago, AFF said:

While a lot of people think the Steelers are so great at drafting mid round WRs, they’ve had their fair share of misses.

draft a few every year and after a while there is the occasional good pick and everyone thinks they have it figured out at WR. It would be good to know the ratio of success instead of just the successful WR's. Seems like they always drafted WR's more than I expected anyways.

3 hours ago, AFF said:

I prefer actually spending $$$ on a solid vet this time around but I doubt that happens.

I hope this happens, reliable hands and good teammate is what they need. 

 

3 hours ago, warfelg said:

On top of that role guys (gadget/deep) is something that should stay rookie contracts. Spending on those type of guys ultimately lead to disappointment. 

mike wallace - what happened to the teams that paid him.  ?

 

1 hour ago, Dcash4 said:

I have never had a problem that they draft a receiver each year. You need 5 on a roster, you can carry 6 no problem, they fill a variety of functions, and rookie deals are cost effective. 

My issue is that you continually use premier picks each year. Like, maybe if you just took a Z only receiver with pick 60, don't take another Z only receiver at pick 49 two years later?

it seemed a bit much over the years with WR early in the drafts, then bringing old players back like Harrison and Keisel. Something isn't right about that. 

The real balance is struck by managing the cap to allow a few proven vets in UFA to help complete the roster.  Being the the red with the cap all the time and having to rework deals is a fail and what results is constantly relying on draft picks more than they should.  Just remembering that killer b era, all the resources on offence. If they paid Bell what they were going to, then AB, Ben and the OL, it seemed a bit heavier in pay on that side than it should have been. Defence was bad and those teams couldn't win vs any legit team ever it seemed. Total waste and not to be repeated

This team with rookie QB/RB  deal is in a position to make a good roster with a few UFA signings. We will have to wait and see what they do. Some have said DT , WR class is lacking as is OT. CB and Edge are said to be good though.

No idea what to expect, so the suspense is there.  If they don't add a few quality vets, it could be a problem.  The fact they are keeping canada and mitch is already a red flag not to be challenged. Terrible start actually, so why think it will get better? They will have to hit on the draft to offset this. If KP gets hurt for a while , then that would be like losing TJ this year, expect a losing skid if the opponents are decent. I thought mitch proved that "we can NOT win" with him, the 2022 season was his chance.  AR2 makes no sense  to me regarding that comment