Race for the #1 pick

[HuskieBear]

1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said:

I agree completely with the bolded part. Who picks right after us will matter a lot here. If we end up right ahead of JAX or PHI (NO’s pick) for instance, who also won’t be taking a QB, it hurts our leverage quite a bit. We definitely want another team that at least might take a QB right behind us.

i think the other thing about who is picking behind us that matters - yeah, we believe DET and SEA need QBs, but these aren't actually their picks - theirs are in the mid-teens. so if these teams think they won't be picking in the top 5 or so again in the near future, this is their best chance to grab their QB for the least amount of capital.

lets say DET instead grabs a DL and a CB in rd 1 and rolls with Goff again next year, but they improve again, maybe making the playoffs as a WC. They're picking in the high teens, low 20s, and to get a top QB, they would need to trade AT LEAST 2 FRP, plus more, to get up to the top 5. If instead, they want #2 and are trading from #4, that's what? #4, their 2nd, ~maybe~ a 6th? that's way less capital, plus they can afford to have the kid sit for a year behind goff with no pressure

[dll2000]

I just saw Rams won!  I fell asleep watching and Baker was playing, but Rams Oline was a sieve and thought he was going to be murdered.   They were down, assumed loss.  
 

whoop whoop!

[dll2000]

Denver and Houston were giant teases.  

[dll2000]

I turned Denver game off and missed the crazy comeback.

I did same with Rams over Raiders.  But Rams finished their deal.

Funny how Denver fans are happy with their loss.  I guess they just wanted to see some TDs and signs of life from Wilson.

[Sugashane]

10 hours ago, dll2000 said:

I turned Denver game off and missed the crazy comeback.

I did same with Rams over Raiders.  But Rams finished their deal.

Funny how Denver fans are happy with their loss.  I guess they just wanted to see some TDs and signs of life from Wilson.

I was working at the hospital Saturday and someone told me that Wilson was on track to throw less touchdowns than the number of bathrooms in his house. Lol

 

Sunday probably ruined that statistic but it was one I really enjoyed.

[beardown3231]

50 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

I was working at the hospital Saturday and someone told me that Wilson was on track to throw less touchdowns than the number of bathrooms in his house. Lol

 

Sunday probably ruined that statistic but it was one I really enjoyed.

He has thrown more TD passes to Willie Gay this year than he has thrown to anybody else

Not sure if that's still accurate but it was after the pick 6

[StLunatic88]

While we are still hoping for the Broncos to pull a win from somewhere, and some more breathing room from the Rams and Saints would be nice, atleast those 3 teams are not incentivized to lose (dont hold their 1st rounders). But now we might run into the issue of he Cardinals, after losing Kyler (likely for the year, maybe longer) they will likely want to lose out, and become another team that if we pick up a win somewhere will leapfrog us due to the SOS.

Lets look at everyone around us;

Denver Broncos;

vARZ, @LAR, @KC, vLAC

• Obviously Broncos/Cardinals is going to help us in some way, the real question is who we should be rooting for? The Broncos have the Rams the week after which is another showdown for us, so theres one more possible win for them. Chalk the KC game up as a loss, and then unless the Chargers rip off 4 straight wins, then they will likely need Week 18 (and still might anyway) 

Los Angles Rams;

@GB, vDEN, @LAC, @SEA

• What can we expect from the new Baker-Rams? Hopefully they bury the Packers this week and we dont have to think about them anymore. But in reality, they could lose all 4 of these games, or win all 4 of them. I do think the Seahawks are falling apart on the way to the finish line, so thats another good spot for a win, especially for Baker to go out into Free Agency on. 

New Orleans Saints;

vATL, @CLE, @PHI, vCAR

• The Saints HAVE to win atleast one of these right? RIGHT? My Kamara-led fantasy team needs them to, but Im not so sure as they keep running Andy Dalton out there. They are favored this week, and should probably be (talent wise) be favored for all of them other than the trip to Philly. Lets hope they get completely clear of us,

Arizona Cardinals;

@DEN, vTB, @ATL, @SF

• The team that spurned this thought, they could completely implode with Kyler out, but then again hes been out plenty this year. Maybe Kliff takes the end of the season to try and show hes not the problem, and Kyler is. Hes likely being fired this offseason, but could atleast make a case to be picked up somewhere else quickly (Houston?). I think I want them to win this week vs the Broncos, but they also get to see the NFC South, and then potentially the Niners who will have nothing to play for in Week 18, and should use it as a bye wek, because they cant get the #1 seed.

 

Regardless of all of this, WE should not win another game. Not that we CAN NOT, but we SHOULD NOT. I think the erosion of the defense due to injury will do that on its own. Not too worried about this week or next against two of the Super Bowl favorites, still fighting for the First Round bye right now. And as long as the Lions are still in the Wild Card hunt, I think they can out gun us, especially in Ford Field safe from the elements. My biggest concern come in Week 18, finishing the season, at home, vs a fraud Vikings team, who will be locked into the 2 or 3 seed, and may be specifically locked into one of those. The should be resting absolutely everyone, especially if its bad weather. If thats the case, we absolutely can not allow Justin Fields to play this game, and I will honestly be upset if they do, and a Win could negatively impact our draft status. If the Rams and Saints win this week, and Denver picks up both the Cardinals and Rams games, and Arizona steals one of the NFC South games, and we are a whole Loss clear of dropping a draft slot, then ABSOLUTELY let Fields go off to end the year. But you cant count on that yet.

[Bigbear72]

The more I look at how things are playing out the less likely I think that even if we secure the number 2 pick we will not be trading down with any of the teams with 2 first this year. It seems much more likely that we are trading for multiple picks over the course of this year and next year and possibly 2024. Of the teams that have multiple picks in the first, only Houston is in need of a QB and even in the unlikelihood that they drop to number 2 I doubt they would trade away both of this years 1st. I think that Indy, Carolina, or Tampa would be our most likely trading partners. 

[Ty21]

Us thinking we’ll use the 2nd pick how we want (assuming we get it) is very rose colored glasses of us. 

[Bigbear72]

6 minutes ago, Ty21 said:

Us thinking we’ll use the 2nd pick how we want (assuming we get it) is very rose colored glasses of us. 

Also this. I think half the board is going to rage out.

Edited December 13, 2022 by Bigbear72

[StLunatic88]

2 hours ago, Bigbear72 said:

I think that Indy, Carolina, or Tampa would be our most likely trading partners. 

One of those two are probably making the playoffs, so Id say its unlikely we would trade down with one of them unless they are sending a Kings Ransom.

Our best situation for a potential trade down is going to be if someone lie Indy is picking 3rd right behind us, it will force any team who wants the #2 QB to come up infront of them (or we get to pull a Mitch and just move down a spot for some extra capital)

I think we could see some serious QB shakeups again this year, and any number of teams could be looking to hit the reset button on the position; IND, CAR, ATL, TB, SEA, NYJ, WAS, TEN, NYG, LV, GB, NO, BAL

All of those teams could be looking at a change at QB, some wont end up doing it, some will go the Free Agent route, but there will be plenty looking to get a new franchise guy, its just do we want to move down far enough.

Right now, Im hoping that Denver puts some wins together, dropping their pick into the 6-9 range, as well as the Seahawks faltering down the stretch, making them realize they NEED to get someone other than Geno for long term. Still probably a long shot with them though.

[AZBearsFan]

5 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

One of those two are probably making the playoffs, so Id say its unlikely we would trade down with one of them unless they are sending a Kings Ransom.

Our best situation for a potential trade down is going to be if someone lie Indy is picking 3rd right behind us, it will force any team who wants the #2 QB to come up infront of them (or we get to pull a Mitch and just move down a spot for some extra capital)

I think we could see some serious QB shakeups again this year, and any number of teams could be looking to hit the reset button on the position; IND, CAR, ATL, TB, SEA, NYJ, WAS, TEN, NYG, LV, GB, NO, BAL

All of those teams could be looking at a change at QB, some wont end up doing it, some will go the Free Agent route, but there will be plenty looking to get a new franchise guy, its just do we want to move down far enough.

Right now, Im hoping that Denver puts some wins together, dropping their pick into the 6-9 range, as well as the Seahawks faltering down the stretch, making them realize they NEED to get someone other than Geno for long term. Still probably a long shot with them though.

I keep looking for potential trade partners with the teams about to undergo regime changes. That keeps leading me to CAR and IND, and then ATL who dumped their long term QB last year and only used a mid-round pick at the position. They’re currently 7, 9 and 10 respectively. If things hold where they are I think that’s gonna be the sweet spot. Going down from 2-3 to that range should get us a 2023 2, a 2024 1 and probably a bit more, and in that 7-10 range we can still likely get either Murphy or Wilson at DE, perhaps Breese at DT or probably any of the top WRs. 

[Bigbear72]

Reflecting on the year I have come to a realization. We should be really pissed at Roquan Smith. Had it not been for him we would have probably lost the game against Houston and be in line for the number one pick right now. 

Thanks Roquan. Jerk!

[dll2000]

8 minutes ago, Bigbear72 said:

Reflecting on the year I have come to a realization. We should be really pissed at Roquan Smith. Had it not been for him we would have probably lost the game against Houston and be in line for the number one pick right now. 

Thanks Roquan. Jerk!

Easy to forget early in year defense was actually good and the offense was garbage.

I think loss of Quinn hurt more than Smith though.   Our Dline has played like they don't even exist.   

They are tackling dummies with no arms.

 

 

 

[Sugashane]

On 12/14/2022 at 10:35 AM, dll2000 said:

Easy to forget early in year defense was actually good and the offense was garbage.

I think loss of Quinn hurt more than Smith though.   Our Dline has played like they don't even exist.   

They are tackling dummies with no arms.

That and weather made Lance play worse than what he normally would. Still not a fan of his, but still. If weather was better their talent just shuts our team down IMO even if Lance blows.