ronjon1990 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 19 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said: I'm sure it's at or over 50 per, just not all guaranteed. Put a lot of guaranteed money in the first two years but you're bad at your job if you give him a fully guaranteed contract. That's what Lamar wants which is a sign that money is the top priority which doesn't always translate well during a second contract. Even if money wasn't actually his top priority, let's just look at his last 3 years averages (because what someone did once 4 years ago in the NFL is worthless at this point): 2627 passing yards, 19.6 but let's say 20 TDs, 9.6 but let's say 10 INTs (2:1 ratio), 845 rushing yards, 4 TDs, 7 fumbles with 2.6 so let's say 3 lost. 13 games played per year in a league where they play 17. No Lamar likely means 0-4 in those games missed. In the AFCN, much less the AFC, if you're expecting to give up, let's be optimistic- 2 games a year due to Lamar getting injured- in the 13 games he plays, you're practically needing him to go 10-3 just to keep any hopes alive. He's averaging a 8.6 - 4.3 record over the last 3 years. Based purely on averages according to what he's actually done, being optimistic about how games without him go, you're still only looking at 10.6 wins. That's the optimistic outlook. 3472 total yards, 24 TDs, 13 Turnovers, and an 8-9 win record. Is that really worth what he's trying to get? Not to mention, like you said, once he's paid, well those numbers don't exactly translate to anything special do they? And those numbers are inflated thanks to a season 3 years ago. His last 2 haven't been anything worth his contract demands. If the Ravens want to hedge their bets that Lamar rebounds and tops those numbers, I can understand giving him a rich extension. The numbers are close enough to being very good that a rebound and topping those numbers could make for a really good season. It's not like they're bottom barrel numbers. But you're absolutely right. If someone, anyone, gave him a big fully guaranteed contract with the results he's actually had, they're not only bad at their job, they're utterly incompetent. Fandom and a soft spot bias for him being the in-house guy aside, there's absolutely no way to manipulate the numbers into something resembling worthwhile for what he wants. The Ravens organization's job isn't to be fans or have a soft spot for in-house talent. Moreover, the guy balked at previous deals and gambled on himself. Gambling doesn't guarantee a win is automatic, and he lost on it. Plain and simple, in my opinion. If it were up to me, I'd tell him point blank "You've been an average, at best, QB for the last 3 years. You can either take our still generous offer, or you can continue to bet on yourself at your own risk. But we're just going to keep tagging you until we're either interested in giving what you want or we're done entertaining you, at which point we'll recoup enough from another team to replace average at best QB play with someone else." Strictly speaking, the numbers and results that Lamar has yielded are just not irreplaceable. At some point, what someone might do becomes a sunk cost fallacy. Lamar might sign elsewhere, toss 40 TDs and rush for another 15, and win a Superbowl and another MVP. On the flip side, Lamar might sign elsewhere, put up the same stat line or worse, and wind up some team's expensive backup in a year or two with what could then be 5-6 years worth of mediocre results now on film. The law of averages alone lean towards the latter. End of the day, it would simply be way too hard to justify giving him anything even close to a massive guaranteed deal. Frankly, if they're offering Lamar at or over 50 per, he should consider himself exceptionally lucky. Sentimentality aside, I wouldn't offer him over 35 with few guarantees until he actually does something of note again. I get that finding a Franchise QB isn't easy. I'm a Raiders fan, FFS. But Lamar's production as of late simply isn't something that a lot of less heralded QBs couldn't do. Like I said, it's perfectly fine to bet on the guy you already have. But like you said, big guarantees aren't just given out, unless you're really bad at your job. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NudeTayne Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Lamar is meant to be Steeler. 🙏🙏🙏 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FalconFan13 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 15 hours ago, Yin-Yang said: Clearly just the owners pumping out falsehoods to Schefter Basically no one can tell me it isn’t collusion because my brain won’t allow it and will come up with reasons to disprove you Im honestly cool with it being collusion and hope they continue it to not end up giving him or any other QB a fully guaranteed contract like Watson got at that price again. To me that is way to crippling to a team if anything goes wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronjon1990 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 4 hours ago, FalconFan13 said: Im honestly cool with it being collusion and hope they continue it to not end up giving him or any other QB a fully guaranteed contract like Watson got at that price again. To me that is way to crippling to a team if anything goes wrong. Nothing spells free market capitalism more than a collusion accusation, amirite? 1 guy gets a stupid deal and hits the jackpot, now everyone gets one? If the owners all independently decide a guy isn't worth more money than they're willing to offer, that ain't collusion, that's the market. And the market isn't bound to stroking one guy's ego at the expense of the league. I'll one-up you though: it's not just crippling to a team, it's crippling to the entire league of that sort of thing we're to become the norm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 The fact Watson of all people got this stupid contract just makes this whole thing so much worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seminoles1 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 I get that Watson's was for a lot more and more recently, but does no one remember that Kirk Cousins also got a fully guaranteed contract when he was a free agent? 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notthatbluestuff Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nobellythrower Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 7 hours ago, ronjon1990 said: Even if money wasn't actually his top priority, let's just look at his last 3 years averages (because what someone did once 4 years ago in the NFL is worthless at this point): Why are you taking away someone best szn, like taking josh best szn which was years ago, rogers, anyways it's always about lamar what about the ravens giving him the least spent offense in his playing career, anyways it's funny what fans say when he's ranked by his peers a top 5 qb, which is elite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 22 minutes ago, seminoles1 said: I get that Watson's was for a lot more and more recently, but does no one remember that Kirk Cousins also got a fully guaranteed contract when he was a free agent? Wasnt it just 3 years instead of 5 and also he didnt sexually assault anyone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Reed Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 50 minutes ago, notthatbluestuff said: That's from La Canfora. He's viewed as an absolute joke here in Baltimore. He has a radio show that makes about 10 wrong predictions weekly here in Baltimore. I wouldn't trust him at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seminoles1 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 35 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: Wasnt it just 3 years instead of 5 and also he didnt sexually assault anyone... What? I'm bringing up Cousins because everyone seems to act like the Watson contract is some crazy, wild one-off that no other owner wants to do. But another owner did it just 3 years prior. And his most recent extension was fully guaranteed. So, like, why does no one talk about this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ray Reed said: That's from La Canfora. He's viewed as an absolute joke here in Baltimore. Update: He's been a joke about everywhere for quite some time now. We notoriously loathe him in Cleveland too. The dude is a complete meme. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notthatbluestuff Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ray Reed said: That's from La Canfora. He's viewed as an absolute joke here in Baltimore. He has a radio show that makes about 10 wrong predictions weekly here in Baltimore. I wouldn't trust him at all. My apologies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mox Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, seminoles1 said: What? I'm bringing up Cousins because everyone seems to act like the Watson contract is some crazy, wild one-off that no other owner wants to do. But another owner did it just 3 years prior. And his most recent extension was fully guaranteed. So, like, why does no one talk about this? Length and asset commitment to get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalvadorsDeli Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, seminoles1 said: I get that Watson's was for a lot more and more recently, but does no one remember that Kirk Cousins also got a fully guaranteed contract when he was a free agent? Difference is basically that Cousins got his contract fully guaranteed in exchange for bargaining away extra years. That's how a negotiation ideally should work - a give and take on both sides. His more recent extension was only for one year, so again it's the same idea. I don't think teams balk at the fully guaranteed structure of a deal so much when they're not having to reach so far into the future to game out what the implications are - the player's still getting a fully guaranteed deal but the team is able to bargain for some security in it as well. If Lamar was willing to take a fully guaranteed 3 year deal along the lines of what Cousins got, even at a record AAV, my guess would be that he would have been signed a year ago. He wants both the years and the guarantees - the Watson deal, which is a wholly different animal than what Cousins got. Edited March 9, 2023 by SalvadorsDeli 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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