Grade the draft

[skibrett15]

Packers picks against the "consensus big board" - the board that when compared against NFL GM success does about the same.  This isn't great at predicting who will get picked where, but if an NFL GM were to use it in the draft, they usually do about the same as good NFL drafters.

 

Round 1: No. 13 (from NYJ) – Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa
Consensus BB: 15 - right in line.

Round 2: No. 42 (from CLE through NYJ) – Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State
Consensus BB: 50 - again, right in line

Round 2: No. 50 (from TB) – Jayden Reed, WR, Michigan State
Consensus BB:  89.  This one looks to be about a round early.

Round 3: No. 78 – Tucker Kraft, TE, South Dakota State
Consensus BB: 67. Small value here.

Round 4: No. 116 – Colby Wooden, DT, Auburn
Consensus BB: 150. Little early but that doesn't matter quite as much in the 4th and beyond.

Round 5: No. 149 – Sean Clifford, QB, Penn State
Consensus BB: 423.  UDFA 

Round 5: No. 159 (from ATL through JAX via DET) – Dontayvion Wicks, WR, UVA
Consensus BB: 162 - right on.

Round 6: No. 179 (from HOU through TB) – Karl Brooks, DL, Bowling Green
Consensus BB: 115 - nice value

Round 6: No. 207 (from SF through HOU through NYJ) – Anders Carlson, K, Auburn
Consensus BB: 372 - kicker tho

Round 7: No. 232 – Carrington Valentine, CB, Kentucky
Consensus BB: 232. Huh. exactly

Round 7: No. 235 (from DET through LAR) – Lew Nichols III, RB, Central Michigan
Consensus BB: 384. Whatever

Round 7: No. 242 (from JAX) – Anthony Johnson Jr., S, Iowa State
Consensus BB: 224

Round 7: No. 256 – Grant DuBose, WR, Charlotte
Consensus BB: 213

[GTB999]

14 hours ago, MaximusGluteus said:

Jayden Reed was actually my favorite receiver in my pre-Combine scouting but I wrote him off to GB after he weighed in at 183 and his RAS wasn't super high.  I really like the guy and the way he plays.

I also like Grant DuBose a lot but wasn't sure if Gute would draft a WR from a smaller school (obviously Christian Watson is from a small school but he is an anomaly because he's an absolute freak amongst freaks), so that was pretty cool.

I'm not as high on Dontayvion Wicks but hopefully he finds his 2021 form and can be a solid player.

If one of the 3 receivers pans out, I would classify that as a win.  That's the advantage of trading down and getting a boatload of picks.  More darts in the hope that you get a bullseye with one of them

[pgwingman]

3 hours ago, R T said:

I give this draft a Y. As in why the **** does the football world think they need to grade players before anything has even happened. No one has even been to a rookie minicamp yet and people want to judge them as good or bad already.  

You won't be saying that when all 13 of these guys make the pro bowl

 

[packfanfb]

Always find it funny how people grade drafts based on "when" a guy is picked. For instance, what if the Packers' draft went like this:

1. LVN

2a. Musgrave

2b. Kraft

3. Reed

4. Wicks

5a. Wooden

5b. Brooks

6a. Valentine

6b. Johnson

7a. Dubose

7b. Nichols

7c. Clifford

7d. Carlson

Think our "grade" would be better for most people? I'm guessing yes even though it's the same players...

[Malfatron]

B- right now

Mildly fine with it

[DWhitehurst]

On 4/29/2023 at 7:13 PM, Spartacus said:

For the first time since Bulaga & Finley they actually drafted my favorite player in the draft which is pretty fun in Musgrave. Not a fan of LVN but I can understand why they drafted him even if I wouldn't have done it. 

Had Kincaid had the bigger frame of Musgrave, I'd have preferred Kincaid for those amazing ball skills and fearlessness in traffic, but he does not. Agree on Musgrave, he was my preferred TE going into the draft too, that is, provided they also would take another guy who could more readily play the Inline Y role in the draft--which they did with Kraft. Musgrave was appealing just for the upside potential, for what he might become given that impressive 1.54 10yd split he ran at the Combine. Still unknown what he will become (and let's hope he stays healthy/durable), but I feel better about the gamble on greatness given they also took Kraft. Provided they both stay healthy of course, we are gonna have alot of fun watching them in two TE sets!! 

I give Gute a B+ just looking at whom he took. But I give him an A+ for his maneuvers--both in staying put at #42 and at #78 gambling that Musgrave and Kraft would still be on the board (ok, I can't prove that they were their primary target at each spot but I'll just go with it...haha), as well as moving back twice from #45. I mean, I look at his selection at #50 of Jayden Reed as really Reed + a 5th and 6th round pick. So if you think Reed might have been a slight reach at #50, just look at it that way. Given Reed's performance at the Senior Bowl and his #1 ranking in beating press coverage off the line of all the WR prospects according to Reception Perception, that suggests the Packers had higher on their board than many draft pundits. 

[smetana34]

I'm sure I'll catch flack for this, but I'm not sure how I feel about this draft, and it's largely due to the Musgrave pick. I fully understand the TE room was bare, and I mocked one to us in the second round of my mock, but the hit probably on tight end is so insanely low that I'm not sure I'm onboard with chasing one with a premium pick. I understand you can't let the hit rate deter you from trying, just think that if I was in charge of running a team I'd pick one every year in the 3rd, 4th or 5th until I hit on a solid one

[craig]

I think it was a fun draft.  Who knows?  All depends on how the players produce.  

1. Surprised:  I expected safety, RB, OL, CB to all get picks at some point or other prior to round 7.  That none of those need positions got more than a practice-squad 7th round pick was really interesting.  Add run-stop DL guy to that list also. 
2. Need:  That so many needs went un-addressed, while the spots drafted still all seem to target needs, speaks to how long an NFL roster is, and how many needs the packers had.  
3. Lack of tradeups:  I'd imagined with a million picks, that Gute might be trading up at points to get some targets.  (Like a safety, for example.). That he just let the draft come to him was interesting.  
4. Carry-over Packers with Happy Hearts:  Guys like Innis Gaines and Ford must be super fired up.  Instead of having some compelling new valued draft pick to compete for snaps, they have massive window of opportunity.  TJ Slayton and Jonathon Ford, zero new competition from good-sized DL.  against run-heavy teams or in short-yardage, their opportunity to win snaps is so much better than it might have been.  Patrick taylor and Tyler Goodson, could they have possibly expected it to go so well for them?  Those types of players must be SO relieved.
5. What if it Works?:  We're trained to realize that most picks don't work out that great, and we shouldn't get hopes up too high.  But, what if it works?  What if VanNess proves to be really good?  What if both TE's end up being legit, quality players, with Musgrave being a real 1st-down weapon?  What if 3+3 WR's in back-to-back drafts end up stocking that room successfully, and for a good stretch we look back at these two drafts and say Wow, did Gute ever fill the WR/TE rooms in two snaps?  
6. Rebuild-no-den-mother?:  I guess we have no $$ anyway, so Gute has/had no choice.  But I kinda love stocking WR/TE with young guys to build with, rather than wasting cap and snaps on experienced vets to steal snaps during a rebuilding year.  Let the kids all practice and hang out and study together and have all the ambition and energy of aspiring guys trying to earn their way.  don't bother with even a den mother.  (Of course it's not the season yet.  Gute still has time to add some den mother vets, so long as they come cheap enough.). 
7. Run defense?  Adding undersized front guys who are pass-rush oriented is fun, we all gravitate towards pass rushers.  But between the body types that we have and the Barry defense, will we get constantly bulldozed by run-oriented teams?  I don't know, but it's a hesitation.  
8. I understand the logic on all of the picks.  Gute and those scouts are smart guys and logical.  That doesn't ensure success, but I appreciate their thought process and logic.  
9. Smart:  I have sometimes thought the Packers tended to be high-RAS but often had a lot of not-that-smart guys.  I get a smarter vibe from a lot of these guys?  
10. Tough:  Musgrave doesn't give me the "tough", "gritty" vibe.  But a bunch of the others do.  It would be fun to have a more tenacious chemistry for the team.  

 

[Dr A W Niloc]

On 4/29/2023 at 7:37 PM, Norm said:

F for taking Sean Clifford.

They'd do better with Stephanie.

[Billy86]

I'll give it a B. 

Downsides: safety was a need that was always, going to be gough to fill with a poor class at that spot. Lack of offensive linemen though I felt a little less urgency there than others with the potential of Caleb Jones and Walker. QB and kicker picks were questionable, especially as there was a small handful of players at spots of interest there. I wouldn't have minded seeing a big boy run stuffer also, but am unsure if none landed to us or if we decided to avoid them. 

Upsides: really, really went after the skill positions. Our WR corps is now three rookies and three 2nd year guys, with TE having two rookies and a 4th year guy who I'm expecting to see more at HBack etc more often. Plus a few 2nd,3rd,4th year experimental guys like Melton, Tyler Davis etc. I'm really looking forward to see how these guys all work together for better or worse - moreso than any season since at least Rodgers first few. 

Pass rush was also really addressed and by mid season we should have Rashan, Preston, Enagbare, LVN, Hollins (who was handy last year down the depth chart) Brooks, Wooden, Wyatt and Clark all looking to pressure the QB. If we can be even mediocre to average against the run, that depth and rotation could make a massive difference to the defense. 

Added some depth at DB and with good players for their draft spot fro what I understand. Still going to want to find at least a veteran safety late in FA but was good to get some names.

And this season is likely going to be about seeing what we've got rather than expectations of 12+ wins or bust, so I'm kind of OK with overexposing all these first and second year guys so we can really get solid determinations on them, even if it costs us 2 or 3 wins this year. 

[Uffdaswede]

5 hours ago, craig said:

I think it was a fun draft.  Who knows?  All depends on how the players produce…

8. Tough:  Musgrave doesn't give me the "tough", "gritty" vibe.  But a bunch of the others do.  It would be fun to have a more tenacious chemistry for the team.  

 

Musgrave and LVN seem to come from high-achieving families, much like CM3. The hope is that the drive to achieve survives to this next level… the safety nets below them are wide and secure.

Kraft’s family seems a lot like Jordy’s…rural high achievers with successful operations, hard work, and hard play.

Wooden’s family really touched me. Just mom and dad and Colby with grateful hearts.

Then you have Kenny Clark and all the drafted players who somehow kept the dream alive through trauma, loss, uncertainty and with the economic concerns of the working poor. I’m sure some of our new players have that background.

Had we known, our hearts were actually broken weeks ago on players like Washington, Branch, and the fast fullback kid when Gute first set his board. Maybe it was RAS, maybe it was skillset or injury, or maybe Gute had a feeling that the player didn’t fit in the locker room. I think the locker room composition— like it or not— is a big ****ing deal for Gute. Which is weird, cuz I don’t like him all that much.

Edit: I guess this long ramble was precipitated by thinking about Musgrave and LVN—and how the security of their well-off youth compares with the background of others and impacts their drive to succeed. CM3 had a similar social profile and there was nothing wrong with his head. Injuries got him.

Edited May 1, 2023 by Uffdaswede

[Chili]

So basically the Packers value players from strong and financially secure families but they also value players who overcame their circumstances to get where they are now.

Locker room composition was a TT thing too. Everyone noted he particularly valued players with a religious background. I assume Gute has relaxed on those with religious bias but he still values a strong locker room.

[R T]

Couldn't help but notice that Gutes leans heavily on taking players that trace back to the Homo habillis branch of the human species. So, there is that common trait in the locker room.

 

[Spartacus]

8 hours ago, craig said:

Tough:  Musgrave doesn't give me the "tough", "gritty" vibe.  But a bunch of the others do.

People really didn't do their homework on Musgrave IMO. I think everone was expecting one of LaPorta, Washington, Mayer, or Kincaid. 

[AlexGreen#20]

C

Thoroughly average