Jordan Love Appreciation Thread

[Packerraymond]

2 hours ago, MacReady said:

You miss one. You miss two. You don't miss three. Doubs was also open at the bottom of the screen.

Doubs is only there in case a defender forces him out on a scramble. He's not a read in the play. 

It's Wicks or Watson. I can forgive a throw away and not wanting the dump off to Watson, as with the time left on the clock, an incompletion is better than that completion. Taking the sack is brutal though, ball just needs to be ripped to Wicks.

 

[MacReady]

52 minutes ago, Mox said:

Like I said, if that's a consistent thing then it's an issue. I know you know Rodgers missed tons of reads throughout his career.

This is why I’m a big fan of completion percentage and YPA in judging a QB after their first year. I am compiling a big post that looks at this.

Love is ticking upward. Maybe that’s the quality of our recent opponents, maybe it’s just a full season aggregate. As of RIGHT NOW, Love is just outside the indicators of having a good career as a backup.

I am going through every QB since 2008 (I explain why 2008 in the post I’m working on).

Whatever happens, I will stand by my % and YPA measurements.

[Leader]

 

[minnypackerfan]

1 minute ago, MacReady said:

This is why I’m a big fan of completion percentage and YPA in judging a QB after their first year. I am compiling a big post that looks at this.

Love is ticking upward. Maybe that’s the quality of our recent opponents, maybe it’s just a full season aggregate. As of RIGHT NOW, Love is just outside the indicators of having a good career as a backup.

I am going through every QB since 2008 (I explain why 2008 in the post I’m working on).

Whatever happens, I will stand by my % and YPA measurements.

This is going to sound picky (because it is)...but does your % and YPA measurements account for drop rate %, contested catch rate %, and number of plays were routes were run wrong % versus the league average.  We're near the bottom of all of these.  I would say if he is at the margins of two categories, these statistics would probably if accounted for push him up slightly.

[MacReady]

47 minutes ago, minnypackerfan said:

This is going to sound picky (because it is)...but does your % and YPA measurements account for drop rate %, contested catch rate %, and number of plays were routes were run wrong % versus the league average.  We're near the bottom of all of these.  I would say if he is at the margins of two categories, these statistics would probably if accounted for push him up slightly.

Nope, it doesn’t. Those fall into the tough tiddies category of “If you want the big bucks you better be able to do more with less.”

[thrILL!]

"The biggest difference might not be in the quarterbacks but, rather, their pass-catchers.

Favre had receiver Sterling Sharpe, who already had a pair of 1,000-yard seasons before they joined forces, and tight end Jackie Harris was in his third season. Rodgers had receiver Donald Driver, who already had five 1,000-yard seasons, plus a third-year receiver in Greg Jennings and second-year receiver James Jones to go along with veteran tight end Donald Lee.

Love has the youngest group of pass-catchers in the league with six receivers in either their first or second NFL season and three rookie tight ends."

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38843663/comparing-packers-quarterback-jordan-love-aaron-rodgers-brett-favre

 

[incognito_man]

15 minutes ago, thrILL! said:

"The biggest difference might not be in the quarterbacks but, rather, their pass-catchers.

Favre had receiver Sterling Sharpe, who already had a pair of 1,000-yard seasons before they joined forces, and tight end Jackie Harris was in his third season. Rodgers had receiver Donald Driver, who already had five 1,000-yard seasons, plus a third-year receiver in Greg Jennings and second-year receiver James Jones to go along with veteran tight end Donald Lee.

Love has the youngest group of pass-catchers in the league with six receivers in either their first or second NFL season and three rookie tight ends."

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38843663/comparing-packers-quarterback-jordan-love-aaron-rodgers-brett-favre

 

OL is really really REALLY important for young QBs as well. Probably moreso than pass catchers. So I'd be curious to see how those compare, too, in performance.

[packfanfb]

30 minutes ago, thrILL! said:

"The biggest difference might not be in the quarterbacks but, rather, their pass-catchers.

Favre had receiver Sterling Sharpe, who already had a pair of 1,000-yard seasons before they joined forces, and tight end Jackie Harris was in his third season. Rodgers had receiver Donald Driver, who already had five 1,000-yard seasons, plus a third-year receiver in Greg Jennings and second-year receiver James Jones to go along with veteran tight end Donald Lee.

Love has the youngest group of pass-catchers in the league with six receivers in either their first or second NFL season and three rookie tight ends."

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38843663/comparing-packers-quarterback-jordan-love-aaron-rodgers-brett-favre

 

You're on the right track. I've been preaching this all season. I would add that the two biggest disparities between Love and 2008 Rodgers right now are (1) differences in their deep ball accuracy and (2) willingness to cut it loose. 

Here's a clip of someone's random "top 10" from Rodgers in 2008. 

For one, notice the difference in quality of the pass catchers. Our current guys likely drop half of these balls. However, several of these throws are dropped in the freaking bucket by 12. A few of the other throws are ripped down the middle/seam (throw to Jennings against the Bucs). So far, we haven't seen Love show really any accuracy with his deep ball and worse even for me, for a guy who has a big arm like 12, Love looks tenative and often trys to float or guide the ball to his receivers rather than just ripping it. He's a big arm QB who often plays like a QB without a big arm. 

Edited November 8, 2023 by packfanfb

[vegas492]

Not sure that the stats posted don't make Favre look even better, given his era of play.

And...above comments are spot on in my book.  OL and pass catchers.  Big difference.

In this NFL, though...to not be at 60% is kindda criminal.  And it's not just on the QB, it's the coach as well.  

And for the sake of all that is holy.....can we please muster 100 passing yards in the first half at some point this season?

Without diving into analytics, I feel like Love and the offense start really, really slow.  And then get their stats towards the end of the game.  Sometimes we come back, sometimes we are just getting garbage stats.  But it really looks like when other teams want to lock down our offense, they can.  Exceptions for when we played the semi-pro team in Chicago and the jayvee team from LA.

[Arthur Penske]

22 hours ago, incognito_man said:

Unfortunately Jordan learned some of the bad from Rodgers too. This looks like classic bad Aaron right there. Ideally Jordan won't do that in year 15 anymore though 

Now all we need is from him going forward is to learn the deep ball and HOF caliber play too.

[Leader]

 

[Brit Pack]

 

[craig]

7 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

Doubs is only there in case a defender forces him out on a scramble. He's not a read in the play. 

It's Wicks or Watson. I can forgive a throw away and not wanting the dump off to Watson, as with the time left on the clock, an incompletion is better than that completion. Taking the sack is brutal though, ball just needs to be ripped to Wicks.

I'm kinda thinking Love had his eyes on Musgrave down the side?  Musgrave never did get open on that play. 

I wonder if Jordan doesn't always pick up some of the nuances?  I have no idea.  Musgrave got picked up right in the box; I wonder *IF* the concept hypothetically assumed Musgrave might get picked up by a linebacker?  A QB might be taught that *if* Musgrave gets a clean 1-on-1 with a linebacker, that it's a great matchup to target?  In reality Musgrave was covered by a cornerback, who was (barely) able to run with him; plus Musgrave drew the deep safety over as well.  Having Watson, Wicks, and Doubs open underneath was thanks to TE commanding two secondary guys.  

I remain hopeful that Musgrave is going to be a really useful weapon, long-term, and that MLF and Love will be able to take more advantage as time goes by.  

[coachbuns]

7 hours ago, MacReady said:

Nope, it doesn’t. Those fall into the tough tiddies category of “If you want the big bucks you better be able to do more with less.”

Then in my eyes, your next post compilation is flawed.  If you are counting completed passes/pass % in your figures then dropped passes, wrong routes, etc should also be counted as it directly affects the results.   Tough tiddies is a nice concept though.  

[MrBobGray]

14 minutes ago, craig said:

I'm kinda thinking Love had his eyes on Musgrave down the side?  Musgrave never did get open on that play. 

I wonder if Jordan doesn't always pick up some of the nuances?  I have no idea.  Musgrave got picked up right in the box; I wonder *IF* the concept hypothetically assumed Musgrave might get picked up by a linebacker?  A QB might be taught that *if* Musgrave gets a clean 1-on-1 with a linebacker, that it's a great matchup to target?  In reality Musgrave was covered by a cornerback, who was (barely) able to run with him; plus Musgrave drew the deep safety over as well.  Having Watson, Wicks, and Doubs open underneath was thanks to TE commanding two secondary guys.  

I remain hopeful that Musgrave is going to be a really useful weapon, long-term, and that MLF and Love will be able to take more advantage as time goes by.  

Honestly without being in their room, can't know for sure, but think either Jordan didn't anticipate the coverage shift correctly or Wicks ran the wrong route.  Rams start out showing a 2-high shell and man coverage alignment - they've got a hat on a hat laterally, coverage-wise.  Post-snap they rotate to a single-high look, but to be honest I'm not entirely sure what they're trying to do here.  Field side LB bails at the snap like he's rotating to cover seam->curl on the boundary side, while the boundary side LB plays the flat on that side.  The field side safety rotates down, but that seems kinda weird because literally nobody takes Wicks.  Generally you pattern match to ensure you aren't letting the vertical routes run free, so you'd think either the Nickle or the field side safety would carry him, but the safety acts like he's playing Robber and the Nickle looks like he has no idea what to do here.  That might be bad coverage, but on the end zone view of this play Love looks to the corner on the offensive left after coming off of Musgrave.  This is a weird thing to do with nobody running a route to that side.  Given the way the Nickle reacts to Wicks's route and the way Love looks deep to the left, I think what happened here is:

1. Love reads the safety rotation down and figures this is single high
2. Love holds the safety in the middle of the field to try and give Musgrave space to get vertical
3. Musgrave doesn't separate much from the corner and the safety drops to depth on that side, so Love has to come off of it
4. Love is expecting Wicks to run corner out of the slot as part of a Smash concept with Doubs.  Smash is just a short hitch by the outsider receiver with a corner over the top by the slot.  I think they were looking to get clever here by doing it out of 3x1 and having Watson run a crosser to try and mess with the match principles for the Rams.  I think the idea was to have Wicks run this stem at the safety/middle of the field, then break it back over the top of the CB covering Doubs.  Love would then read this Musgrave->Watson-> Wicks.  Problem is, Musgrave isn't open and the safety that rotated down and the weak side LB have Watson bracketed, but that means Wicks should absolutely be open on the corner route because all the defenders are to the boundary side now.  So Love looks deep left and sees....nothing at all.
5. Love tries to bail and hit Doubs but there's no throwing lane because Nijman is trying to follow his man on a stunt inside and instead loses him and tries to run around Jenkins to get back in front of him, which gives Love no place to step or follow through.  Love tries to adjust to get space to throw left but by that point the pressure gets home.