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Who will win the AFC South in 2023?


notthatbluestuff

Who will win the AFC South in 2023?  

39 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will win the AFC South in 2023?

    • Houston Texans
    • Indianapolis Colts
    • Jacksonville Jaguars
    • Tennessee Titans

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  • Poll closed on 09/06/2023 at 11:00 PM

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21 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

None of the South teams--AFC or NFC--are.

Last year Jacksonville won this division because they were the only team with a QB.  Little else, but certainly a QB.

All three other teams have added a QB, two of them starters.  None rate to be as good as Trevor Lawrence (this year, at the very least) but all should narrow this gap.

For all the usual reasons Houston will win this division, although not by much.  Tennessee is a slight favorite to win the dogfight for second.

Yeah, I don't think that's accurate at all.

The Jaguars certainly stumbled a few times over the season, but they ended the season looking very, very strong.  I don't remember the specifics, but I do remember thinking that the Chiefs got a little help from the refs to win the game against them.  If you can hang with KC in the playoffs, you're a team to take seriously.

And yeah, two of the other teams, who were as big or bigger messes than the Jags, even outside the QB position, added rookie QBs.  Expecting those rookies to lead very flawed teams anywhere is foolish.  It almost never happens, even with really good QBs.  Who are the top QBs in the NFL right now?  Some combo of Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Lawrence, Hurts, and Rodgers, right?  How many of them made their teams good in their rookie seasons?

Because I count zero.

It could be another team than the Jaguars, but if it is, it's probably the Titans.  They're soft rebuilding, but they still have their core players and QB.

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11 minutes ago, notthatbluestuff said:

Huh. What are the reasons Houston will beat out Jacksonville for the division this year?

The Texans have the best overall individual rankings (by quite a bit) in the AFC-South.  Most talent acquired in free agency.  Second best draft in the division, well ahead of Jacksonville's.  Easiest schedule, especially compared to 2022's.  The Jags have a slight advantage on O-Line--notably run blocking--but Houston's pass protection rates to be vastly improved;  given their positional schedules the ground game isn't likely to matter much for either team.  The opposite is true on defense, where Houston is better overall but significantly so against the pass.  Coaching may not be the issue it has been.

If Colts QB Anthony Richardson performs better than I expect Jacksonville will struggle to avoid being last here.  To put this in perspective, last time I checked no member of the Jags offense other than Trevor was ranked above average at his position...and that is the strength of the team.

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7 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Damn, not a single vote for Tennessee? Got to appreciate the honesty, Titans fans!

I could easily see a scenario where the Titans win the division.  I think everything they need to happen is reasonable.  But for all of it to happen is pretty unlikely.

But if Derrick Henry doesn't fall off this year, and Tannehill plays at a similar level, the offense should be better overall.  Not a high bar, since it was awful last year, but nonetheless.  I think the majority expectation though is that there will be some regression from core players, and that makes sense.  Henry would have to continue to be an anomaly for that not to happen.

The defense will be good.  LBs will probably not be as good, and the IDL will be a lot thinner, but the CBs should be better, and the Edge situation almost certainly will be.

None of this matters if they keep having to field the scout team by week 17 though.

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1 hour ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

The Texans have the best overall individual rankings (by quite a bit) in the AFC-South.  Most talent acquired in free agency.  Second best draft in the division, well ahead of Jacksonville's.  Easiest schedule, especially compared to 2022's.  The Jags have a slight advantage on O-Line--notably run blocking--but Houston's pass protection rates to be vastly improved;  given their positional schedules the ground game isn't likely to matter much for either team.  The opposite is true on defense, where Houston is better overall but significantly so against the pass.  Coaching may not be the issue it has been.

If Colts QB Anthony Richardson performs better than I expect Jacksonville will struggle to avoid being last here.  To put this in perspective, last time I checked no member of the Jags offense other than Trevor was ranked above average at his position...and that is the strength of the team.

No one besides Trevor is above average on offense? Huh? Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Travis Etienne, and Evan Engram should all be considered above average.

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  • 2 months later...
50 minutes ago, notthatbluestuff said:

Oof, the Titans could be in big trouble. That offense is moribund.

i've never seen tannehill play worse; in addition to the 3 picks he flat-out missed two throws that were both wide-open touchdowns, and he had 2-3 more throws that probably should have been picks. even an *average* performance from him gets us a W today, probably fairly easily. at the very least, it's gonna be interesting to see if this was a one-off or if he's just totally washed. tennessee might hang around for a bit if it's the former, but if it's the latter they are in for a very rough ride this year.

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1 hour ago, notthatbluestuff said:

Oof, the Titans could be in big trouble. That offense is moribund.

Yeah, Tanny looked washed today. Too bad too, because the receiving weapons are better than they’ve been since AJ left, and Henry is still a baller.

But Tannehill was straight up awful.

And at least as of recently, he’s the best QB on the roster.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Just now, General Tso said:

uhm, is JAX like, bad?

I think it's how this division works...

- Jax owns Indy

- Indy owns Houston

- Houston owns Jax

- Tennessee splits with everyone - first is an L, second is a W.

First three weeks and we saw it happen JUST like this. 

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