Who will win the AFC West in 2023?

[bucksavage1]

54 minutes ago, Steelersfan43 said:

Good against the run but not good in pass coverage

He’s better in coverage than Denzel Perryman from what I saw. I think he’s a two down LB for us

[MrOaktown_56]

2 hours ago, Scoundrel said:

No one is winning this division other than KC

It's not even close either. We are closer to the top pick than winning the division, which this year could be really really good.

[ET80]

5 hours ago, bucksavage1 said:

8 hours ago, ET80 said:

This one is straightforward - assuming Mahomes, Kelce and Chris Jones stay healthy, Chiefs run away with the division. The only question is whether or not KC gets the first round bye. (Cincy is a possibility to challenge for the spot).

Kelce is due to decline soon. Could it happen this season ? Not sure but at 33, it is coming

I think at this point, he's earned the right to not get mentioned as a player in decline until a season *after* a noticable drop in production. Even then, what does a decline look like for a TE that's put up 1,000 seasons for seven consecutive seasons? A 75/800/6 TD season is a phenomenal year for pretty much any TE (even some of the HoF guys we compare Kelce to) but that would be a considerable decline for Kelce, so even a drop-off would still keep him at the top of the position group. 

When you consider that Kelce's actual peers at the position (Sharpe, Gonzalez, Gates, Witten) had productive seasons in their mid 30s, thinking about Kelce still putting up numbers into his mid 30s isn't too much of a stretch - especially considering he's not depending on guys like Trent Dilfer, Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers. Mahomes is still going to find him and let him do his work.

[FrantikRam]

wait are we doing this again? Can we bump the one from last year? Please?? Solid gold.

[bucksavage1]

17 hours ago, ET80 said:

I think at this point, he's earned the right to not get mentioned as a player in decline until a season *after* a noticable drop in production. Even then, what does a decline look like for a TE that's put up 1,000 seasons for seven consecutive seasons? A 75/800/6 TD season is a phenomenal year for pretty much any TE (even some of the HoF guys we compare Kelce to) but that would be a considerable decline for Kelce, so even a drop-off would still keep him at the top of the position group. 

When you consider that Kelce's actual peers at the position (Sharpe, Gonzalez, Gates, Witten) had productive seasons in their mid 30s, thinking about Kelce still putting up numbers into his mid 30s isn't too much of a stretch - especially considering he's not depending on guys like Trent Dilfer, Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers. Mahomes is still going to find him and let him do his work.

Good points. The big judge will be his own team handles his contract. If KC expects him to continue elite production into his mid 30s and they will hand him a giant extension. If not you’ll know they expect him to decline as well. 

Like I stated before, it may not be this season but it is coming. His TE peers I don’t think was the #1 target on their respective offenses like Kelce was last season and this season coming up. That’s a lot of usage for a player in his mid 30s. 
 

 

 

[ET80]

On 7/3/2023 at 3:43 PM, bucksavage1 said:

Good points. The big judge will be his own team handles his contract. If KC expects him to continue elite production into his mid 30s and they will hand him a giant extension. If not you’ll know they expect him to decline as well. 

A lot of the contractual decisions will probably be on how KC thinks Mahomes will evolve - will he continue to progress as he has? Once upon a time, KC had a top 3 WR that was looking for a significant payday - Tyreek Hill got paid his massive extension, KCs decision wasn’t really based on anything outside of “can Mahomes cover up this loss?” (which the answer was a resounding yes).

On 7/3/2023 at 3:43 PM, bucksavage1 said:

Like I stated before, it may not be this season but it is coming. His TE peers I don’t think was the #1 target on their respective offenses like Kelce was last season and this season coming up. That’s a lot of usage for a player in his mid 30s. 

Eh… Tony Gonzalez was second fiddle to Julio Jones In Atlanta and Jason Witten was 2nd to Dez Bryant - but I actually think the rest *were* the top guys in their respective offenses.

I can’t think of a primary WR of note in Denver/Baltimore or San Diego during the Sharpe/Gates eras with those teams. 

[Nightime]

1 hour ago, ET80 said:

A lot of the contractual decisions will probably be on how KC thinks Mahomes will evolve - will he continue to progress as he has? Once upon a time, KC had a top 3 WR that was looking for a significant payday - Tyreek Hill got paid his massive extension, KCs decision wasn’t really based on anything outside of “can Mahomes cover up this loss?” (which the answer was a resounding yes).

Eh… Tony Gonzalez was second fiddle to Julio Jones In Atlanta and Jason Witten was 2nd to Dez Bryant- but I actually think the rest *were* the top guys in their respective offenses.

I can’t think of a primary WR of note in Denver/Baltimore or San Diego during the Sharpe/Gates eras with those teams. 

The Broncos had Rod Smith at receiver to help Shannon Sharpe. He was very good. Smith was their top pass catcher during the Super Bowl years 

Edited July 4, 2023 by Nightime

[ET80]

46 minutes ago, Nightime said:

The Broncos had Rod Smith at receiver to help Shannon Sharpe. He was very good. Smith was their top pass catcher during the Super Bowl years 

That’s fair, but those two only overlapped as starters from 1997 - 1999 and then again in ‘02 and ‘03. Rod Smith was a backup his first two years in Denver, and Sharpe was an established playmaker by 1992, so there’s a half-decade in there where Shannon was the main attraction (as well as his two year sabbatical with Baltimore).

Rod Smith is a great WR, but his time started up after Sharpe was already a known commodity.

[CP3MVP]

The AFC west during the Patrick Mahomes era is a flashier version of the AFC east from 2001-2019

[Jakuvious]

On 7/3/2023 at 3:43 PM, bucksavage1 said:

Good points. The big judge will be his own team handles his contract. If KC expects him to continue elite production into his mid 30s and they will hand him a giant extension. If not you’ll know they expect him to decline as well. 

Kelce's under contract for 3 more season. Don't think the subject will even come up for another 2 years, honestly.

[kingseanjohn]

2 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

Kelce's under contract for 3 more season. Don't think the subject will even come up for another 2 years, honestly.

I’ll still argue that he was taking more breaks than in previous seasons. Whether that was conditioning(doubtful), long covid(no clue), or age(possibly) I don’t know. Outside of his first and second seasons, he played the fewest snaps this past year % wise.

I’m on my phone or I’d post a chart, so here’s a link to my source: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KelcTr00.htm

[Jakuvious]

16 minutes ago, kingseanjohn said:

I’ll still argue that he was taking more breaks than in previous seasons. Whether that was conditioning(doubtful), long covid(no clue), or age(possibly) I don’t know. Outside of his first and second seasons, he played the fewest snaps this past year % wise.

I’m on my phone or I’d post a chart, so here’s a link to my source: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KelcTr00.htm

Only down 2%, though, from 2021. The Arizona game alone accounts for that. Lowest snap % in a game since 2017. I don't think last year was particularly noteworthy there, it was pretty in line with recent history. Past 3 years he's been in the low to mid 80s, down from 2018ish when he was almost at 100% of snaps, which was insane anyway, honestly.

I do think he'll steadily scale back, but I think it'll be more deliberate than it will be decline or fatigue. Like, I don't think people realize just how much Noah Gray played last year for one. And I think that only goes even further next year. More Gray, more Fortson. I still kind of like Matt Bushman, honestly, but Blake Bell probably represents a barrier there.

 

Though, the point I was making anyways was buck argued whether KC extends him at high value or not will imply whether he's likely to decline or not. But Kelce has 3 years left on contract, so an extension isn't imminent anyway.

[bucksavage1]

1 hour ago, Jakuvious said:

Kelce's under contract for 3 more season. Don't think the subject will even come up for another 2 years, honestly.

He was just discussing it last week

 

 

[Jakuvious]

3 minutes ago, bucksavage1 said:

He was just discussing it last week

 

 

None of those quotes and nothing in that interview says anything about him signing an extension in the near future. And the tweets from this and the article from Florio grossly misrepresented the actual interview, nitpicking small lines out of it to make him sound upset. It was a huge interview and they picked out like 3 bits where they talked about tightends being underpaid and Tyreek leaving. And he literally says in that interview that he's going to see out his current contract.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/06/travis-kelce-is-going-for-it

Quote

Kelce told me he intends to see out his current contract with the Chiefs, which runs through 2025. And although he might not know what precisely the future holds, Kelce has been positioning himself for a next act in entertainment since he entered the league.

Quote

“When I saw Tyreek go and get 30 [million] a year, in the back of my head, I was like, man, that’s two to three times what I’m making right now,” he says. “I’m like, the free market looks like fun until you go somewhere and you don’t win. I love winning. I love the situation I’m in.”

 

[bucksavage1]

4 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

None of those quotes and nothing in that interview says anything about him signing an extension in the near future. And the tweets from this and the article from Florio grossly misrepresented the actual interview, nitpicking small lines out of it to make him sound upset. It was a huge interview and they picked out like 3 bits where they talked about tightends being underpaid and Tyreek leaving. And he literally says in that interview that he's going to see out his current contract.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/06/travis-kelce-is-going-for-it

 

There’s some truth to what you said about Florio. They pump things up more than what it seems. However, he still discussed his pay. And of course he says he wants to win. He’s on a super bowl high.

After the 2024 season, there’s no way he goes into the 2025 season with a lame duck UFA year coming up. They’ll do an extension sometime in 2024 if they feel he’s still worth top money.