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The Week 8 Thread: The State Nooner.


MikeT14

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11 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

Pros are gonna leave the hype at the door and do what nobody else does- actually critique him. 

And what they'll find is he pads stats against bad teams and is beyond mediocre against reasonable competition. His stats vs ranked teams are laughable for someone with the hype he's been given. 

Dude has bust written all over him. Just wait.

I wasn't expecting this to be as wide a disparity as it is. 😬

F9-Am-IY5-Ws-AE0-FQ7.jpg

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9 minutes ago, cp0k2 said:

I wasn't expecting this to be as wide a disparity as it is. 😬

F9-Am-IY5-Ws-AE0-FQ7.jpg

How are Maye's stats against top 25 teams? With Maye having prototypical size and Williams being another in a long line of highly ranked midgets it wouldn't surprise me to see a team take Maye over Williams.

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1 hour ago, cp0k2 said:

I wasn't expecting this to be as wide a disparity as it is. 😬

F9-Am-IY5-Ws-AE0-FQ7.jpg

It's an extremely stark contrast and why I just haven't gotten the hype about him. Other than playing at a big named school, what's different between him and, say, Colt Brennan? He looked better putting up gawdy stats vs overmatched cupcakes? It doesn't matter how good he looks, mechanically speaking, if he looks horrid against good competition. Amd he plays at USC, so he doesn't have the excuse of a bad supporting cast. The team around him is plenty talented enough for a supposed "God tier" prospect to look better than undraftable against top 25 opponents.

He gets way more hype because of the USC uniform than what he's actually done. The media made him the big news and a darling and people decided he was the best prospect ever and stopped actually putting anything into context and made it taboo to even consider he might not even be that good. Zach Wilson comes to mind- I got eviscerated for pointing out he was trash against good opponents and looked great playogn BYU's proxy SunBelt schedule in 2020. But he was the media's darling and in the Heisman hunt, they said, so he must be good and his talent was undeniable. Well....yeah, that didn't really work out did it? I watched BYU v Coastal Carolina that year with a lot of anticipation- think about watching CCU with anticipation of finally seeing some supposed superstar QB looking good- and he wasn't impressive at all. 

With Caleb, I see a lot of people talking about how great he's supposed to be, but come up with little substance about how good he actually is. Even against some non-top 25 opponents this year, just some solid but unspectacular competition, I've seen a guy who gets by on a lot of lucky breaks and overall team talent disparity. USC should be a 3-4 loss team by now, and again, they're not talent-less. Even where he's put up stats, I've looked and just gone "Eh, ok?" way too often. I'm just not seeing a generational talent. I'm seeing Zach Wilson/Colt Brennan production with a USC logo instead of a BYU or Hawaii logo. And like those two, when the talent level across the board is remotely close, they're not the guy putting the team on their back amd willing them to victory, nor are the losses all just a matter of his team not having a great D. Yet again,  tonight, what the heck did Caleb Williams do so special as to say USC's D- which I don't think is particularly good mind you- is the sole reason they lost. They blew the lead, sure, but Williams didn't put much of a lead on the board and wasn't a Superman either. 

Once they rack up a couple more expected losses and he doesn’t look particularly special against the remaining good competition, I think the whole narrative around him is going to change between now and the draft. 

Now, he'll still go round 1 and probably still be the first QB off the board unless someone just absolutely loves Drake Maye. That's not really debatable. But I think Caleb Williams is one of the most overrated prospects I've seen in quite a few years in terms of what he's actually done and how hesitant anyone is to actually point out the glaring issues in his resume. 

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8 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

It's an extremely stark contrast and why I just haven't gotten the hype about him. Other than playing at a big named school, what's different between him and, say, Colt Brennan? He looked better putting up gawdy stats vs overmatched cupcakes? It doesn't matter how good he looks, mechanically speaking, if he looks horrid against good competition. Amd he plays at USC, so he doesn't have the excuse of a bad supporting cast. The team around him is plenty talented enough for a supposed "God tier" prospect to look better than undraftable against top 25 opponents.

He gets way more hype because of the USC uniform than what he's actually done. The media made him the big news and a darling and people decided he was the best prospect ever and stopped actually putting anything into context and made it taboo to even consider he might not even be that good. Zach Wilson comes to mind- I got eviscerated for pointing out he was trash against good opponents and looked great playogn BYU's proxy SunBelt schedule in 2020. But he was the media's darling and in the Heisman hunt, they said, so he must be good and his talent was undeniable. Well....yeah, that didn't really work out did it? I watched BYU v Coastal Carolina that year with a lot of anticipation- think about watching CCU with anticipation of finally seeing some supposed superstar QB looking good- and he wasn't impressive at all. 

With Caleb, I see a lot of people talking about how great he's supposed to be, but come up with little substance about how good he actually is. Even against some non-top 25 opponents this year, just some solid but unspectacular competition, I've seen a guy who gets by on a lot of lucky breaks and overall team talent disparity. USC should be a 3-4 loss team by now, and again, they're not talent-less. Even where he's put up stats, I've looked and just gone "Eh, ok?" way too often. I'm just not seeing a generational talent. I'm seeing Zach Wilson/Colt Brennan production with a USC logo instead of a BYU or Hawaii logo. And like those two, when the talent level across the board is remotely close, they're not the guy putting the team on their back amd willing them to victory, nor are the losses all just a matter of his team not having a great D. Yet again,  tonight, what the heck did Caleb Williams do so special as to say USC's D- which I don't think is particularly good mind you- is the sole reason they lost. They blew the lead, sure, but Williams didn't put much of a lead on the board and wasn't a Superman either. 

Once they rack up a couple more expected losses and he doesn’t look particularly special against the remaining good competition, I think the whole narrative around him is going to change between now and the draft. 

Now, he'll still go round 1 and probably still be the first QB off the board unless someone just absolutely loves Drake Maye. That's not really debatable. But I think Caleb Williams is one of the most overrated prospects I've seen in quite a few years in terms of what he's actually done and how hesitant anyone is to actually point out the glaring issues in his resume. 

I think ya'll are looking at this backwards 

CW isn't QB of a top-25 team that chokes against similar competition 

He's QB of a 4-8 team that he somehow carried within a game of the CFP last year 

Outside of a couple of stars the talent around him is not competitive with ranked teams.  Particularly defense and o-line.  This is not USC of 10 years ago.

USC would be bottom of the Pac-12 without him

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