The MVP race

[AngusMcFife]

19 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

So a more pressured QB is a negative?

I don't know if you watched football back then, but Cunningham was pretty reckless in the pocket. Held on to the ball very long without much awareness. A lot of those pressures are on Cunningham. Not exactly a rhythm passer. 

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Different eras. Cunningham was 5th in passer rating in 1990, Lamar is currently 8th.

Cunningham had 35 TD and 17 turnovers in 1990. Lamar is at 24 and 13.

Cunningham's passing efficiency was way better in 1990 than in 1988, I'll give you that. Amazing that in 1988 he was 2nd in MVP voting with:

53.8 completion % (league average: 54.3%)
5.46 NY/A (league average: 5.93)

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In 1990 11 teams gave up less points than the Eagles (299). This season no team has given up less points than the Ravens (244).

Fair. I may have overrated their late 1980s teams when considering the 1991 Eagles is the greatest defense of all time. 

[Thomas5737]

1 minute ago, AngusMcFife said:

I don't know if you watched football back then, but Cunningham was pretty reckless in the pocket. Held on to the ball very long without much awareness. A lot of those pressures are on Cunningham. Not exactly a rhythm passer.

Unfortunately, I did. I was a huge Cunningham fan. Lamar is unique with his quickness and Randall was unique with his balance. He was very creative and his mobility allowed him to be. That line was also pretty bad.

The later Cunningham (Vikings) was much more of a pocket passer. He always kept developing his game. He took a ton of punishment though. Much more than anything you see a QB take today.

[game3525]

4 hours ago, Thomas5737 said:

Strong disagree here, I'd have him at #1 by a decent margin.

He is also 4 TDs away from being in the top 5 all time for most TDs in a season. You want to include a QB with 24 total TDs but omit a RB with 21? There are 9 QBs with more passing TDs than Lamar has total.

So if you can forgive Lamar for not having the yards or TDs or having a top 5 passer rating I think we can forgive McCaffrey for whatever we're holding against him.

I would say he is 1B to Trent. But he is definitely better then everyone else on offense. 

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I like how in football media, Lamar was the golden boy they needed to take down Purdy as MVP and now that he's at the top, it's like people are already looking at who should be at the top instead of him. 

Starting to see Josh Allen and Dak circle back around

It is just a really weak year for candidates. If Mahomes was having just an average Mahomes year, he probably runs away with it like Brady did in 2017. 

Edited December 28, 2023 by game3525

[diamondbull424]

3 hours ago, Thomas5737 said:

The stat which is a big part of the award for voters.

There’s precedent for MVP winners having less than 30 TDs before though:

Precedent for > 30 TDs in NFL Season
2003
- Steve McNair had 24 passing TDs and 4 rushing TDs for 28 total TDs.
* he only played in 14 games though would be the counter argument.

- That same year Peyton Manning had only 29 total TDs (all passing) in 16 games. They won Co-MVP.

2008
- Peyton Manning won it with 28 total TDs (believe it or not Manning with 1 rush TD this year 😱).

I just think historic precedent for a RB winning MVP over a QB the last 25 years has typically been with them breaking a record for the position, even if it was a weak QB class.

RB MVPs in the last 25 years
1997- Barry Sanders breaks the Yards From Scrimmage record, eclipses 2000 yards rushing, eclipses 6.0 yards/carry.

1998- Terrell Davis eclipses 2,000 yds rushing achieving 3rd most in league history*, achieves 3rd most rushing TDs in league history*, 3rd most total TDs for a RB in league history*.
* League history up until that point of course. These marks have since been surpassed.

2000- Marshall Faulk hits 26 total TDs which was the most in league history*, nearly 2200 yards from scrimmage in 14 games played, voters likely also weighed into the discussion his 1999 season where he broke the yards from scrimmage record and achieved the most receiving yards by a RB since the merger… but didn’t win the award.

2005- Shaun Alexander breaks the rushing TD and total TD record for a RB in a single season. Has more TDs than 3rd place MVP vote Tom Brady and just as many TDs as 2nd place Peyton Manning. Eclipses the 1800 rushing yards barrier.
* Was a weak year but he still set a TD record for the position.

2006- LDT shatters the total TD record becoming the only RB to eclipse 30 TDs in league history, breaks the rushing TD record, finishes 6th in YFS in league history (at that time). Eclipses the 1800 rushing yards barrier. 

2012- Adrian Peterson finishes 2nd to Eric Dickerson’s 2.1k, eclipses 6.0 yards/carry, Peterson becomes only the 3rd back in NFL history to eclipse 2,000 rushing yards and 6.0 ypc the other two being OJ and Barry Sanders.
* Peterson dragged a terrible Vikings offense to the playoffs

3 hours ago, Thomas5737 said:

Cunningham? In '88 he averaged 15 more yards passing per game and 13 less rushing and in '90 he averaged 7 more rushing yards and 7 less passing yards per game than Lamar. That was also a much tougher time to be a QB.

This was a good find. Yet if we’re going off per game averages than CMC’s total TD efficiency become even less potent historically. Many of his historical contemporaries achieved their total TDs in 14 and 16 game seasons.

Lamar in comparison to Starship 12, The Ultimate Weapon
But even still Cunningham is the only player comparable historically and he finished 2nd in MVP voting in 2/3 seasons in a row (have no idea how he didn’t win in either 1988 or 1990 but I digress.) Lamar is essentially on pace to surpass 1988 Cunningham passing totals with close to 1990 Cunningham rushing totals.

The current 24 total TDs is indeed low, but I think if Lamar can get into that 28-30 total TDs range… while hitting that 3800+ and 900+ threshold than you’re talking about him being in company with only himself and Cunningham’s MVP level seasons.

Now in terms of the “playing QB was more difficult” point, it was, but Lamar has vastly better efficiency numbers compared to Cunningham. His ANY/A matches that of 2008 MVP Peyton Manning.

And again, I’m not saying that Lamar is a slam dunk winner, I’m simply saying that there is historical context to justify his case. As well as saying that there isn’t the historical context to justify the case for CMC (based off the current pacing anyway).

Things could absolutely change. If Lamar throws 4 picks against the Dolphins or Steelers than it wouldn’t even make sense for him to continue in the discussion. But if he finishes the season with 4 more total TDs (rounding up his rushing and passing TDs/game pace) and if he can play both games clean, his case IMO is stronger than CMC’s case based in historical context. We’ve seen QBs win it in down years with similar total yards and total TDs.

CMC’s case doesn’t have historical context
We have not seen a RB win the award in the last 25 years unless they have broken a record or finished top 3 in multiple categories. CMC is projected to finish with 1580 yds rushing and 610 yds receiving and 2190 YFS. Which wouldn’t rank him within the top 25 of such seasons in NFL history for neither total yards, rushing yards, or receiving yards by a RB.

Then when we consider his rushing TDs at 16 (taking his pace and rounding up) and that would also not equal a top 25 season by a RB. If we take CMC’s receiving TD pace and round up to 8 TDs that would simply tie him for 10th place in NFL history. His receiving TDs is his best case for a historically great RB season and that pales in comparison to what we’ve seen of the last 25 years of RB MVP winners and their seasons.

Edited December 28, 2023 by diamondbull424

[diamondbull424]

2 hours ago, Soggust said:

Now I get that PFF isn't the be all end all, but remember that the 49ers were literally in the super bowl a few years ago without CMC. In fact, they were 2nd in rushing yards and 1st in TDs in 2019. Now they are 4th in rushing yards and 2nd in TDs.

This RB is supposed to be so revolutionary to the 49ers that he deserves the MVP despite a similar performance in Carolina leading to a 5-11 record? I just don't buy the CMC argument, or any RB for that matter.

I mostly agree with your entire argument. The only way I would buy a RB for MVP would be if they did something absolutely historic.

If CMC were to surpass LDT’s total TD record on top of his 2023 YFS numbers or if he were overtaking CJ2k’s total YFS record on top of his 2023 TD numbers than I would be on board with him winning the award this season. But while a QB hasn’t separated themselves neither has he really lived up to the RB side of the MVP bargain.

Tyreek IMO has the best historic pacing to do the unthinkable and he’s the only skill player I’d consider taking the MVP if he can set the WR record or get close to it, especially considering he would have to do it by torching on a bum ankle two top 5 defenses in DVOA. That would be something special enough worthy of an MVP IMO… he still wouldn’t be the “most valuable” but in the spirit of the “most outstanding” context of the award I’d give it to him.

Edited December 28, 2023 by diamondbull424

[diamondbull424]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

Do people think the line move more if CMC is missing a game as opposed to Purdy? 

Betting line?

I think the 49ers without CMC is still a Shanahan rushing attack with George Kittle as the best blocking TE in the game and we know what Deebo can do in the running game as well.

I’d be more willing to believe they eclipse 100 rushing yds without CMC than I think they could reach 300 yds+ and 3 TDs+ w/ 0 picks without Brock Purdy.

Darnold as a backup is good, but as the starter? There’s too much evidence to suggest that he would come in and throw picks trying to force the issue. He’s not a particularly good game manager, he’s typically been more of a gunslinger. In close games, turnovers are paramount.

So had my Ravens had a choice to remove either CMC or Purdy from the game… I’d have taken Purdy out… because I would’ve anticipated Darnold to have the kind of game that Purdy just had, whereas I don’t think Purdy in another meeting has that same type of game.

[FrantikRam]

It's Lamar and it's not close.

Lamar will *only* finish with 28-ish total TDs - but:

He is the teams leading rusher - and yet, without a great running back on the roster, they have 19 rushing TDs as a team aside from Lamar (who has 5) - does Gus Edwards get 12 TDs without Lamar? He has 172 carries for 694 yards - about as mediocre as it gets - but then 12 TDs. No Andrews, mediocre running backs and average WRs and from what I can tell, an average offensive line - but this team is the 4th in both total and scoring offense?

It's Lamar.

[Duluther]

18 minutes ago, FrantikRam said:

It's Lamar and it's not close.

Lamar will *only* finish with 28-ish total TDs - but:

He is the teams leading rusher - and yet, without a great running back on the roster, they have 19 rushing TDs as a team aside from Lamar (who has 5) - does Gus Edwards get 12 TDs without Lamar? He has 172 carries for 694 yards - about as mediocre as it gets - but then 12 TDs. No Andrews, mediocre running backs and average WRs and from what I can tell, an average offensive line - but this team is the 4th in both total and scoring offense?

It's Lamar.

All of these words to do the opposite of convince. You are pillaring Lamar's MVP chances on his rushing... than remark how he only has 5 rushing TD's. He isn't even being a prolific runner in general this year (statwise); he hadn't even registered a 30+ yard run until this past game.

 

That said, Lamar overcomes your deadweight argument as, yes, he should be MVP. Based on the evident criteria (i.e., 'at least great QB' + 'at least great team' + 'playing well late in the season').

[Thomas5737]

4 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

There’s precedent for MVP winners having less than 30 TDs before though:

I see.

4 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

CMC’s total TD efficiency become even less potent historically. Many of his historical contemporaries achieved their total TDs in 14 and 16 game seasons.

 

Oh, different amount of games you say?

 

Rushing stats for a QB are like receiving stats for a RB. They don't count at the same level. If a RB has 2600 yards and 800 are receiving, no one cares. If a RB has 2600 yards and 250 are receiving he had a historical year.

If a QB Passes for 50 TD or passes for 5000 yards that's a big deal. It means less if he passes for 4200 and runs for 800.

I'm not saying it makes sense or is fair but that's how it is. That said, Lamar's combined passing and rushing yards and TDs don't come close to the epic QB seasons. He may end up with 4700 yards (his pace) and 27-28 TD but there have been dozens of QBs who have had more passing yards and passing TDs than Lamar will end up with in total yards/TDs. So nothing historical for him either.

Stroud is probably having the most historical season this year, at least off the top of my head.

 

[incognito_man]

I think the top 3 QBs in EPA/play vs top 12 defenses should be the leading candidates, whoever they are

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

If voters have any interest in making this award anything besides “the QB who’s having the best statistical season on a good team award” then this is the year to do so imo.

Otherwise just call it MVQB and be done with it.

[WizeGuy]

15 hours ago, WFLukic said:

Tbf I think Allen being in the discussion with an OC that was fired is a positive. He has been that good despite having a crap OC.

Allen on his own has more touchdowns than 25 teams and that's even including defensive and ST touchdowns. 

The turnover criticism is valid, but Allen also has the least sacks of any full-time starter and off the eye-test, definitely has the best ability at turning what would be a negative play (e.g. a big sack) into a neutral or positive play with his pocket presence and escapability.

Plus, a lot of his turnovers are arm punts or heaves down field. If it's 2 and 12 and he chucks it down field for a pick that's 50 yards, it's basically an arm punt just a down early. Compare that with a QB getting sacked for a loss of 6 there, and it's 99% they're punting anyway. It's just getting sacked looks pretty on the box score whereas the pick looks bad. For every criticism of his turnovers, there needs to be credit given for his ability to avoid sacks.

Agreed. I'm a bit dumbfounded that people think a QB with 16 less TDs & only 5 less turnovers is more deserving. Also, is there a QB in the league that accounts for more TDs? I'd assume Allen is hovering around 80% of his team's total TDs, and most MVP winners account for a large portion of their teams TDs. 

That being said, Hill and CMC are my top two choices. I just believe Allen has been the best QB in the league this year all things considered. Now, the next two weeks will be telling. If he goes nuclear, which is possible with that man, then MVP is a possibility. If he struggles, then he won't even be in the conversation. 

Edited December 28, 2023 by WizeGuy

[Flounch]

I dont know if i'm the only one but i saw a few Ravens games this season and everytime i saw Lamar playing i wasn't baffled by his play. He throws the ball poorly, the passing game is boring. He still have elite escape ability but he has to thanks the defense for keeping him in the play. If the Ravens had to play behind the score, i don't think Lamar would have the capability to make a great comeback by himself. 

[iknowcool]

Man, I remember the takes on this site when it came to Cam Newton winning MVP.  Funny remembering those and now seeing the reasons people are giving to push Lamar as MVP.  

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

3 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

Man, I remember the takes on this site when it came to Cam Newton winning MVP.  Funny remembering those and now seeing the reasons people are giving to push Lamar as MVP.  

Cam’s MVP year was notably better than Lamar this year too.