Trevor Lawrence and the Jags - Year 4 (T-Law is what he is)

[Forge]

He's still just a mid starting QB. 

Makes sense to have hope that he will one day elevate, but he continues to just be a mid starting qb imo. 

[El Ramster]

21 hours ago, LinderFournette said:

Jags 29th in pass pro

Hot chocolate. 32 is nasty work. 
 

Every time I see Tlaw I wanna hurt myself. He was supposed to be better than Luck.!

[Tugboat]

35 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

I think it's admirable to try to separate QB play from all the other variables, but I feel like you just can't with that position. It's all too heavily tied together, QB and every other part of the offense. And maybe this is just where I cross from pro-analytics, which I generally am, to old man shouting at cloud who has been watching football for decades. But isn't it just funny how everyone around elite QBs seems to play better? I've watched from Matt Cassel to Alex Smith to Patrick Mahomes, and it just can't be coincidence, to me, how the "luck" metrics go up along with the quality of QB play. Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady have always had a **** ton of YAC. Magically Houston goes from talent-less to a top supporting cast in the league in one draft pick. QB effects a lot whether it's tangible or measurable or not. Like, listed in the lucky things they try to equalize is interception returns. Maybe a better QB not only throws fewer interceptable balls in general, but also is less likely to throw them directly to a defender in stride. Less late throws on out breaking routes because they're inherently risky. Maybe they get more YAC because they throw to the correct shoulder to set the receiver up to turn away from the defender. Maybe they help drops and tipped INTs by throwing fewer hospitable balls. It just seems tough to call these things just luck or supporting cast, when they don't seem to trend that way on the field. And maybe the metrics supposedly factor in absolutely all of this, but when the talented ones seem lucky too, maybe it isn't just luck.

 

And I don't think all of it is trash. Like, the adjusted EPA chart half a page up gives bonus points to Stafford and Geno, while docking Carr and Baker. Those probably make sense given their environments and what I've seen of each so far. But adjusted EPA also heavily boosts Levis, Nix, and Daniel Jones, while scaling back the EPAs of Allen and Mahomes (though Mahomes was kind of bad week 2, to be fair), and that just feels...wrong. When your result runs so heavily against conventional wisdom, there might be a flaw in the process.

 

The bolded is certainly very true.  The absolute Elite Quarterbacks when they also get competent coaching absolutely do elevate those around them.  It's kind of...one of the defining traits that distinguishes a truly "Elite" QB to me.  But by that sort of metric, there really are only a very small handful of those QBs in the league.  And Lawrence is not one that has established himself in that echelon at all.

So that's where i get the "he's disappointing" narrative.  Because he was hyped and expected to settle right into that sort of caste, quickly and comfortably.  When in reality, he's proving to be far more of just a, "good QB with streaks of very good"...but ultimately, still far more context and situationally sensitive than the true elites like Mahomes/Josh Allen.

But the thing to me at least, is...other than Mahomes/Allen, how many guys are out there who aren't still very contextually dependent in some way or other?  We've seen Burrow look very human at times, when things aren't quite right.  MVP Lamar Jackson can be extremely good, but i don't think it's even that controversial to suggest he needs to be in the right sort of offense to play off his skillset and we've also seen some absolutely hysterically poor performances out of his surrounding cast, including receivers who are struck by a sudden case of complete inability to catch a football, or getting jumpy because of a revolving door at tackle, etc.  So it's not like he's necessarily consistently elevating the play of those around him.  Who else is even in the discussion as reliably elevating those around them, regardless of context?  Herbert has been part of some horrendous teams mailing in abysmal performances around him.  Stroud, maybe you could make an argument for...but we've still got a relatively small sample on, and really only in one specific situation...with a stable coaching staff and supporting cast that has only been upgraded around him.

Who else actually rises to that threshold though?

 

So while it's true that Trevor Lawrence might be somewhat "disappointing" based on failing to clear that bar...it's also a kind of absurdly high bar to set.  Where the vast majority of QBs in the league outside a very small, select group...we always still accept that there's a significant degree of situational influence in the caliber of their play.  We make "excuses" for the majority of them at various times when something isn't ideal with their situation and their play dips a bit.  It just seems like there's an over eagerness to relish in a much ballyhooed "generational prospect" in Lawrence being stuck with repeatedly flawed situations that haven't allowed him to consistently play up to the level he's shown to be capable of in spurts.

[HoboRocket]

23 hours ago, MWil23 said:

It’s PFF and I think they suck from a grades standpoint, but Hudson as the Browns OT was given one of the worst grades over 2 weeks we’ve seen with sack numbers to show for it but somehow this dude has them 5th…? Advanced metrics pick a lane please.

I think they saying... the Browns OTs are WORSE when they run PA, double team their guy, use motion etc?

[ET80]

Pull pin... and... throw grenade:

Kaboom.

[WizeGuy]

A bit surprised at how bad the Jags are doing. I suppose I didn't realize their O line would be such trash. I thought for sure Lawrence was on his way to being a franchise QB about the halfway point last season, but the Jags have struggled to build around him, and he's pretty careless with the ball. Definitely seems to be trending toward 'solid but unspectacular' starter territory. 

Edited Friday at 03:46 PM by WizeGuy

[MWil23]

1 hour ago, ET80 said:

Pull pin... and... throw grenade:

Kaboom.

[ronjon1990]

On 9/19/2024 at 11:11 AM, ET80 said:

My only take on these "advanced stats" is that whoever is using them needs to show their work. I'm sure there's value to these rankings, but there are a TON of qualifiers - dropped passes, batted passes, expected YAC, etc.

The results on the field DO matter, y'know. You can calculate the variables in and out, doesn't change the on-field result.

Stats aren't worthless, but boy do they get skewed and manipulated to no end. 

Even the decent ones don't replace on field results. 

Dropped passes, for example. Sure, they can indicate that a receiver dropping the ball is the reason the QBs completion % was lower. Then you go watch the tape and realize they were poorly placed ducks the receiver did well to even get close to catching. 

With QBs, a lot of the "advanced" statistics seem like attempts to minimize poor play than anything else, when they're not being g used to minimize good play. How often have we seen someone say "Yeah, but their air yards average was 3.3!"? OK, so he's not throwing deep. But if the team is winning and they're not turning the ball over, that just means he's making good decisions, no? 

[StatKing]

On 9/18/2024 at 11:37 AM, ET80 said:

Malik Willis at 5. 🤣

The exact reason I don't take any of these advanced stats seriously.

[Soggust]

I still think he's Baker Mayfield.

Jags fans used to get mad at me about that take, but now I think it's the Bucs and Browns fans that might have an issue with it.

[MWil23]

8 hours ago, Soggust said:

I still think he's Baker Mayfield.

Jags fans used to get mad at me about that take, but now I think it's the Bucs and Browns fans that might have an issue with it.

He’s not close to as good at this point 4 years in sadly. I think Trevor is more toolsy Gardner Minshew, no disrespect to Minshew.

[LinderFournette]

On 9/20/2024 at 11:45 AM, WizeGuy said:

A bit surprised at how bad the Jags are doing. I suppose I didn't realize their O line would be such trash. I thought for sure Lawrence was on his way to being a franchise QB about the halfway point last season, but the Jags have struggled to build around him, and he's pretty careless with the ball. Definitely seems to be trending toward 'solid but unspectacular' starter territory. 

Trevor has 0 turnovers this year. 

The only changes from last year's online and this year is Ezra Cleveland is supposedly healthy and we added Morse at center.

[thebestever6]

I don't think Doug Pederson is the right coach for Trevor. I'd love to see him with like a Kevin O'Connell