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Week 18: Broncos (8-8) Vs Raiders (7-9)


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1 hour ago, jolly red giant said:

I know the arguments about draft position - but man it would be nice to have a winning season after so many years.

I would love to be cheering for a W here, but the difference between a win and a loss is what appears to be being on the right or wrong side of the elite talent divide in this draft. Right now, I’ve got 12 guys who are studs. With a loss, we’re in the 11-13 range. With a win, 16-18. Maybe one of the elite guys would fall, but choosing between Jared Verse, Nate Wiggins, and Keon Coleman is not nearly as sexy as grabbing a Dallas Turner, Jer’Zhan Newton, Rome Odunze, or Laiatu Latu. 

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While I was very confident we would win vs. LAC even with Russ suddenly replaced (IMO we were less likely to struggle on O, or get negative plays, and the trench / talent edge was just too wide across the board), this game is a 50-50 proposition, and I'd give LV with the slight edge being at home (the crowd noise making our OL a hair slower being a huge diff).

The Raiders have 3 big edges:

1.  They are better on both sides of the trenches vs. our guys.   That's massive.   Their OL always plays well vs. us in running the ball, and usually in protecting the QB.   Even when it was "just" Maxx Crosby, he absolutely terrorized our T's.    Malcolm Koonce looks like he's ready to be Crosby's Robin, and that's significant.

2.  The Raiders' back 7 and pass D has quietly gone from being a bottom 10 unit in the 1H of the season to a top 12-15 unit at worst in the 2H.    Getting rid of Jason Peters and adding Jack Jones was similar to when we changed our CB2/slot from absolute scrub level performance to Fabian Moreau (OK to decent) & Ja'Quan McMillan (slot star in the making).     In fact, they're operating at a top 5 level by DVOA the last 6 weeks - which isn't explained solely by the competition faced.     The improved pass rush & coverage are big reasons why the D's absolutely destroyed some teams at home.  When you add the crowd noise that makes an OL a split second later, it explains their big home vs. road edge in D performance.    Jared Stidham will face much better coverage this week than the ChargIR's provided.   To be clear, Russell Wilson-led O would have been even worse off, but this is a far stiffer test than last week. 

3.  Robert Spillane has turned the LB corps and middle into a TO/big play area for the team, and combined with much more cohesive DL play, and run support from the CB's (all the CB's support the run much better than the 2022 & 1H 2023 replaced guys) are massive upgrade in run D from prior years.    Much like the pass D, the run D is operating at a top 10 level the last 6 weeks, after being bottom half.   

 

Now, there's a couple paths DEN can find success with:

1.  That OL play for LV is crucial, because it's clear that Aidan O'Connell IMO isn't *that* guy.    You get pressure on him, he's not that quick in his reads, or that accurate / great at placement.   If Michael Mayer & Josh Jacobs don't play, it's a lot easier to limit the guys who can hurt us (Adams, Meyers become even more the focus, and Zamir White isn't at a healthy Jacobs' level IMO <although at the wage difference, can't blame a team to consider going his way for 2024, or draft another cheap rookie and move on>).

2.  Stidham is not the 2024 answer IMO - he'll likely compete with another vet stopgap (my fave match is Jameis Winston give Payton's history and Winston's pre-ACL success working in it in 2020 with NO), and DEN is almost certain to go hard after young QBOTF either in 2024 or 2025.    But he's less likely to take negative plays like hero-ball sacks.   

3.  We also seem to be in better shape injury-wise.

 

As always, the TO margin will likely be huge here.  I don't see a massive coaching edge either way, and both teams will have plenty of motivation before you get to the natural rivalry.   Given both D's are playing much better in the 2H, I expect this to be more of a 20-17 type game, and LV's D is truly a different animal than we've faced in the past.   This will be a good test to see how much better Stidham is vs. pressure, and he'll have guys who are not nearly so open, so his placement/anticipation will be under scrutiny this week. 

FTR, I think Stidham is a fine backup, and if we had to spot start for 1-2 games, you can definitely do worse than 5-6 teams are doing now for several weeks running (AOC being one of them), but I don't think he's the 2024 answer, other than to compete and always be ready if our starter isn't ready to go.   A great performance vs. a top 10 cover D (that is what LV is nowadays by DVOA and eye test since they made the personnel changes I referenced above, and the pass rush has taken a step up with Koonce adding juice to Crosby's near-DPOY like impact) will be needed unless our run game just goes nuts.    Probably a game only our fanbases will care about - and yeah, I'm with @broncosfan_101 here - play hard, no one get hurt, let the young guys get more work, but I won't be sad with a L.   Lose the battles, win the war.

Edited by Broncofan
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I remember a long time ago when I was in my early teens, I was throwing snowballs at Chester McKlocton after the game ended from the old South Stands, and Chester was trying to get into the stands to probably beat my a$$.  I think that was the last time I had fun watching a Broncos vs. Raiders game.  

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17 minutes ago, MontanaBronco said:

McGlinchey is out. It was Cam Fleming. 

Jeudy is prolly thinking "holy ****, I got the ball on a drag route". 

How Fleming is on an NFL roster is always a bit of a shock to me.

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1 minute ago, AKRNA said:

Pretty embarrassing for our D. 98 yds in 1:36 and a TD.

Fabian Moreau is a dime corner at best. Got absolutely torched on a simple route because he has zero situational awareness. 

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39 minutes ago, 1234567 said:

Fabian Moreau is a dime corner at best. Got absolutely torched on a simple route because he has zero situational awareness. 

They’re been picking on the kid ALL day. 

I know the Walmarts won’t fire Sean and he will retain George, and I support both, but damn let’s clean house 

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