Week 18: Broncos (8-8) Vs Raiders (7-9)

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, 1234567 said:

Who would you go with? Bring in another FA maybe? I know it's a small sample size, but I just don't think Stidham is the guy, even as a stop gap. On the other hand, a couple more years of sucking and we could land Arch. You know damn well PFM would have his fingerprints all over his development if we did lol

None of these guys are the long-term answer (that's the draft), but they're likely to be cheap:

-Jameis Winston.   Covered in many different threads, but his 2021 5-2 record (and shiny 14-3 TD-INT ratio, which is more important, as we know TO's are his Achilles...major understatement) and familiarity with Payton's system, and his arm talent & ability to extend plays in the pocket, would fit.  NOT a long-term answer.

-Sam Darnold.   Similar to Jameis, probably even more raw talent, but definitely lacks familiarity with Payton's system, and IMO is a slower processor than Jameis.  I think Jameis would be cheaper, too.

-Jake Browning.   UFA with CIN.   IMO he's not as vertical or has as much arm talent as Winston/Darnold

-Sam Howell (if the price is right).   He's a younger and shorter / whiter version of Jameis Winston, but because he's 24, he's also more fixable in his problems.   He definitely takes too many sacks (although he improved on this a lot in 2H), and he's TO prone from hero ball mode (like Winston), but he's got arm talent.   And he'll be cheap for 2 more years (3rd year, then RFA tender with performance escalators), and then 2 tags if needed.   Now, I would NOT spend anything more than a 4th/3rd conditional (if he's our starter for 75+ percent of snaps) round pick, and I'd offer a 2025 pick, not a 2024 one, since it's conditional.   If it can be cheaper than that, then I'm definitely game.  The appeal is that if Payton does fix Howell, we've got a cheap solution, with some upside.   The other part - if he's not the answer, then we enter 2025 and hit the draft hard (and if he's not the answer, we're likely picking in the top 10 range).    One huge benefit he'd have in DEN - the WAS OL was bottom 5, and yet the Commies threw the ball by far the most in the league, so he really was left to the wolves.      As long as his psyche isn't broken (his last 2 games vs. SF & DAL, he threw picks, but he wasn't seeing ghosts IIRC from what I saw <not really paying attention this week as much lol>).   

 

Ultimately, our long-term QBOTF is either a 2024 or 2025 rookie, unless we got Howell (but again, cheaply).   Let's recognize Payton took this job to put his stamp on the org, and have "his guy" who can run the system in his image - and that's a big reason why Russell Wilson is gone, because he couldn't, plain and simple.  I don't think Stidham is the answer either, but at least he makes all the throws to all areas of the field.    Who THAT guy is...well, that's probably going to dominate our chats until next draft in late April lol.

Edited January 8 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

On 1/4/2024 at 1:26 AM, Broncofan said:

While I was very confident we would win vs. LAC even with Russ suddenly replaced (IMO we were less likely to struggle on O, or get negative plays, and the trench / talent edge was just too wide across the board), this game is a 50-50 proposition, and I'd give LV with the slight edge being at home (the crowd noise making our OL a hair slower being a huge diff).

The Raiders have 3 big edges:

1.  They are better on both sides of the trenches vs. our guys.   That's massive.   Their OL always plays well vs. us in running the ball, and usually in protecting the QB.   Even when it was "just" Maxx Crosby, he absolutely terrorized our T's.    Malcolm Koonce looks like he's ready to be Crosby's Robin, and that's significant.

2.  The Raiders' back 7 and pass D has quietly gone from being a bottom 10 unit in the 1H of the season to a top 12-15 unit at worst in the 2H.    Getting rid of Jason Peters and adding Jack Jones was similar to when we changed our CB2/slot from absolute scrub level performance to Fabian Moreau (OK to decent) & Ja'Quan McMillan (slot star in the making).     In fact, they're operating at a top 5 level by DVOA the last 6 weeks - which isn't explained solely by the competition faced.     The improved pass rush & coverage are big reasons why the D's absolutely destroyed some teams at home.  When you add the crowd noise that makes an OL a split second later, it explains their big home vs. road edge in D performance.    Jared Stidham will face much better coverage this week than the ChargIR's provided.   To be clear, Russell Wilson-led O would have been even worse off, but this is a far stiffer test than last week. 

3.  Robert Spillane has turned the LB corps and middle into a TO/big play area for the team, and combined with much more cohesive DL play, and run support from the CB's (all the CB's support the run much better than the 2022 & 1H 2023 replaced guys) are massive upgrade in run D from prior years.    Much like the pass D, the run D is operating at a top 10 level the last 6 weeks, after being bottom half.   

 

Now, there's a couple paths DEN can find success with:

1.  That OL play for LV is crucial, because it's clear that Aidan O'Connell IMO isn't *that* guy.    You get pressure on him, he's not that quick in his reads, or that accurate / great at placement.   If Michael Mayer & Josh Jacobs don't play, it's a lot easier to limit the guys who can hurt us (Adams, Meyers become even more the focus, and Zamir White isn't at a healthy Jacobs' level IMO <although at the wage difference, can't blame a team to consider going his way for 2024, or draft another cheap rookie and move on>).

2.  Stidham is not the 2024 answer IMO - he'll likely compete with another vet stopgap (my fave match is Jameis Winston give Payton's history and Winston's pre-ACL success working in it in 2020 with NO), and DEN is almost certain to go hard after young QBOTF either in 2024 or 2025.    But he's less likely to take negative plays like hero-ball sacks.   

3.  We also seem to be in better shape injury-wise.

 

As always, the TO margin will likely be huge here.  I don't see a massive coaching edge either way, and both teams will have plenty of motivation before you get to the natural rivalry.   Given both D's are playing much better in the 2H, I expect this to be more of a 20-17 type game, and LV's D is truly a different animal than we've faced in the past.   This will be a good test to see how much better Stidham is vs. pressure, and he'll have guys who are not nearly so open, so his placement/anticipation will be under scrutiny this week. 

FTR, I think Stidham is a fine backup, and if we had to spot start for 1-2 games, you can definitely do worse than 5-6 teams are doing now for several weeks running (AOC being one of them), but I don't think he's the 2024 answer, other than to compete and always be ready if our starter isn't ready to go.   A great performance vs. a top 10 cover D (that is what LV is nowadays by DVOA and eye test since they made the personnel changes I referenced above, and the pass rush has taken a step up with Koonce adding juice to Crosby's near-DPOY like impact) will be needed unless our run game just goes nuts.    Probably a game only our fanbases will care about - and yeah, I'm with @broncosfan_101 here - play hard, no one get hurt, let the young guys get more work, but I won't be sad with a L.   Lose the battles, win the war.

So....

1.  Their trenches dominated our trenches.

2.  Their run game thrived, ours did not.

3.  Maxx Crosby & Malcolm Koonce abused our protection.

4.  Sutton is really good at what he does, but the LV secondary eats the big body types up.   Jeudy showed why it's so hard to give up on the talent (could you show up every week like this, though?  Thanks).   Brandon Johnson isn't more than a 4th-5th WR, but he sure did enough to likely get an invite and penciled name at the back of our depth chart next TC.    Krull flashed a little (Stidham needed to lead him a yard more for my +900 TD prop, dammit!), but he's literally the only TE I'd keep locked in (no Adam Trautman, you're not worth keeping, please Sean, realize that this offseason - go after Juwan Johnson in FA in 2025 if you need an ex-Saint TE lol).

5.  Ja'Quan McMillan got beat on the TD, but Davante Adams will do that to ppl.   No shame in that.   Fabian Moreau was a clear upgrade over our Week 1-4 CB's, but we got a good look at how he's the clear weak spot.    So yeah, hopefully someone else steps up (and our S play improves as well, with hopefully both Sterns & PJ Locke coming back healthy next year).  

 

I said last week we had all the edges where it mattered vs. the ChargIR's, but LV had the same edges this week, and it played out that way.     Still, as @broncosfan_101 pointed out, us falling to 12 in the draft spot helped stay in the elite tier of R1 draft prospects, so we either get a difference-maker, or can entertain offers to move back with a substantial return very possible.    So, lose the battle, win the war.   Get 'em next year.

Edited January 8 by Broncofan

[AKRNA]

1 hour ago, 1234567 said:

Who would you go with? Bring in another FA maybe? I know it's a small sample size, but I just don't think Stidham is the guy, even as a stop gap. On the other hand, a couple more years of sucking and we could land Arch. You know damn well PFM would have his fingerprints all over his development if we did lol

I don't really know. I just look at the list you posted of our needs plus other positions and we're just really talent shy across the board. Right now I think a great DT would improve the team more than a rookie QB. Same with a TE. 

There's lots of QB FA's available this year and I'd bet there's one Sean really likes. I'll be curious to see which way he goes.

[AKRNA]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

So....

1.  Their trenches dominated our trenches.

2.  Their run game thrived, ours did not.

3.  Maxx Crosby & Malcolm Koonce abused our protection.

  

 

 

That sums it up nicely. When you lose the battle in the trenches you don't win many ballgames. That's been true since the game was invented.

[lomaxgrUK]

Another season feeling like groundhog day in the post-Kubiak/Manning era for the Broncos. There's a lot of pressure on the draft this year, just like there was last year. I just don't think this team is that talented, unfortunately, even outside of the QB situation. Here would be my high level positives and negatives on the season:

Positives

- Nik Bonitto's career jump. Big L for me on this. I'd written him off entirely. If we could find some depth to take some of those early running downs off of him, Bonitto could take another jump next year.

- Cush's career jump. You could actually argue this is a negative in a way, given that he's probably outpriced us re-signing him. Offensive Lineman that take a big jump at his young age and don't miss games are a big, big commodity. He's going to get paid.

- Special Teams were excellent most of the year in all phases, especially Punt coverage which has plagued us over years gone by.

- It might be a stretch, but as a unit I thought the OL made a jump. You'd expect it to given the money invested, and it took it's time to make that jump. But still, I felt like they were a good unit for three quarters of the season.

- Courtland showed flashes he might still be a starting WR in the NFL (not a great finish to the season, mind). He's a prime cut/trade candidate still. 

- A couple UDFAs shining; one from last year (JaQuan) and one from this year (Jaleel). 

- Team showed fight after an awful start. You have to credit Vance Joseph and his staff for turning it around after the Dolphins game. I think this Defense is devoid of top end talent, in particular on the DL, but they put out a good enough product down the stretch for a competent Offense to win Football games.

Negatives

- Russ proving 'he was who we thought he was'. Massive (negative) cap implications for a failed QB.

- 2023 NFL draft class. Marvin Mims had flashes, and being a Pro Bowler in his first year is awesome. But the rest? Oof. Sanders looks lost out there, Moss was inactive most of the season, Skinner couldn't see time on the most injury/suspension hit Safety group in the league and Forsyth was never going to see the field. That's bad. This team isn't good enough to whiff on draft classes; they need the complete opposite.

- #2 CB. Mathis was horrific, and we had him as a staple player at the start of the year. Moreau did a job until teams sussed him out, then he was BBQ chicken out there.

- Another wasted year for Greg Dulcich. He can't be relied upon, and that now leaves us with a TE hole once again.

- Jerry Jeudy just isn't close to the value we invested in him with that pick. 

- No unexpected IDL stepping up to show glimpses of a future. I was really hoping (unrealistically) one of the younger guys would flash, but none of them did.

- Javonte isn't himself. That's to be expected, I know. Broncofan often references the timetables for injuries like what he had. Still, it's a concern for sure.

 

We need a hugely successful draft this year. Massive pressure on our Front Office to get it right.

 

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

Another season feeling like groundhog day in the post-Kubiak/Manning era for the Broncos. There's a lot of pressure on the draft this year, just like there was last year. I just don't think this team is that talented, unfortunately, even outside of the QB situation. Here would be my high level positives and negatives on the season:

Positives

- Nik Bonitto's career jump. Big L for me on this. I'd written him off entirely. If we could find some depth to take some of those early running downs off of him, Bonitto could take another jump next year.

- Cush's career jump. You could actually argue this is a negative in a way, given that he's probably outpriced us re-signing him. Offensive Lineman that take a big jump at his young age and don't miss games are a big, big commodity. He's going to get paid.

- Special Teams were excellent most of the year in all phases, especially Punt coverage which has plagued us over years gone by.

- It might be a stretch, but as a unit I thought the OL made a jump. You'd expect it to given the money invested, and it took it's time to make that jump. But still, I felt like they were a good unit for three quarters of the season.

- Courtland showed flashes he might still be a starting WR in the NFL (not a great finish to the season, mind). He's a prime cut/trade candidate still. 

- A couple UDFAs shining; one from last year (JaQuan) and one from this year (Jaleel). 

- Team showed fight after an awful start. You have to credit Vance Joseph and his staff for turning it around after the Dolphins game. I think this Defense is devoid of top end talent, in particular on the DL, but they put out a good enough product down the stretch for a competent Offense to win Football games.

Negatives

- Russ proving 'he was who we thought he was'. Massive (negative) cap implications for a failed QB.

- 2023 NFL draft class. Marvin Mims had flashes, and being a Pro Bowler in his first year is awesome. But the rest? Oof. Sanders looks lost out there, Moss was inactive most of the season, Skinner couldn't see time on the most injury/suspension hit Safety group in the league and Forsyth was never going to see the field. That's bad. This team isn't good enough to whiff on draft classes; they need the complete opposite.

- #2 CB. Mathis was horrific, and we had him as a staple player at the start of the year. Moreau did a job until teams sussed him out, then he was BBQ chicken out there.

- Another wasted year for Greg Dulcich. He can't be relied upon, and that now leaves us with a TE hole once again.

- Jerry Jeudy just isn't close to the value we invested in him with that pick. 

- No unexpected IDL stepping up to show glimpses of a future. I was really hoping (unrealistically) one of the younger guys would flash, but none of them did.

- Javonte isn't himself. That's to be expected, I know. Broncofan often references the timetables for injuries like what he had. Still, it's a concern for sure.

 

We need a hugely successful draft this year. Massive pressure on our Front Office to get it right.

 

Excellent summary.  
 

Ultimately our margin for error would widen if we either found our QBOTF (unlikely or at least not obvious yet) - or we embraced a youth movement and ate 70M+ if not the entire 85-90M dead cap we have for 2024.    

My biggest concern is that Payton goes to the NO 2015-20 mode and just pushes the cap problems down the line.  It can certainly be done for 3-5 years - but we’re not even close to good enough  to justify doing that.   It just prolongs the mediocrity phase unless we have a 2017-NO like draft and that’s less likely given we only have a 1.12 and a mid-3rd and mid-late 4th as our top 3 picks.   
 

It’s clear Paton is returning but Payton is at the helm.   A complete 2024 youth movement and dead cap hit for most it not all of it would help us long-term.    Just a matter of what Payton & Paton want to do.   

 

 

Edited January 8 by Broncofan

[big_palooka]

13 hours ago, Dbrog24 said:

Didn't yall drop like...5 draft spots with this win? 😂

Don't y'all have an 85 Million dollar cap hit for a QB you traded for?

[Dbrog24]

10 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

Don't y'all have an 85 Million dollar cap hit for a QB you traded for?

Its not like we need the money for this coming year. Enjoy your incoming Brandon Staley hire

[7DnBrnc53]

9 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

- Russ proving 'he was who we thought he was'. Massive (negative) cap implications for a failed QB.

James Merrilatt of Denver Sports seems to think that the Broncos should bring back Russ:

 

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

27 minutes ago, 7DnBrnc53 said:

James Merrilatt of Denver Sports seems to think that the Broncos should bring back Russ:

 

Merrilatt has long been an idiot. It’s usually good form to just believe the opposite of what he believes. I refuse to click on anything with him in it because he just says inflammatory stuff to get clicks rather than contributing to the conversation 

[7DnBrnc53]

1 hour ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

Merrilatt has long been an idiot. It’s usually good form to just believe the opposite of what he believes. I refuse to click on anything with him in it because he just says inflammatory stuff to get clicks rather than contributing to the conversation 

No wonder why he would say something so stupid, then. Wilson is gone, whether he likes it or not. 

He also said that the Broncos should get Jim Harbaugh, let Payton go, and keep Wilson:

 

Edited January 8 by 7DnBrnc53

[broncosfan_101]

14 hours ago, Broncofan said:

None of these guys are the long-term answer (that's the draft), but they're likely to be cheap:

-Jameis Winston.   Covered in many different threads, but his 2021 5-2 record (and shiny 14-3 TD-INT ratio, which is more important, as we know TO's are his Achilles...major understatement) and familiarity with Payton's system, and his arm talent & ability to extend plays in the pocket, would fit.  NOT a long-term answer.

-Sam Darnold.   Similar to Jameis, probably even more raw talent, but definitely lacks familiarity with Payton's system, and IMO is a slower processor than Jameis.  I think Jameis would be cheaper, too.

-Jake Browning.   UFA with CIN.   IMO he's not as vertical or has as much arm talent as Winston/Darnold

-Sam Howell (if the price is right).   He's a younger and shorter / whiter version of Jameis Winston, but because he's 24, he's also more fixable in his problems.   He definitely takes too many sacks (although he improved on this a lot in 2H), and he's TO prone from hero ball mode (like Winston), but he's got arm talent.   And he'll be cheap for 2 more years (3rd year, then RFA tender with performance escalators), and then 2 tags if needed.   Now, I would NOT spend anything more than a 4th/3rd conditional (if he's our starter for 75+ percent of snaps) round pick, and I'd offer a 2025 pick, not a 2024 one, since it's conditional.   If it can be cheaper than that, then I'm definitely game.  The appeal is that if Payton does fix Howell, we've got a cheap solution, with some upside.   The other part - if he's not the answer, then we enter 2025 and hit the draft hard (and if he's not the answer, we're likely picking in the top 10 range).    One huge benefit he'd have in DEN - the WAS OL was bottom 5, and yet the Commies threw the ball by far the most in the league, so he really was left to the wolves.      As long as his psyche isn't broken (his last 2 games vs. SF & DAL, he threw picks, but he wasn't seeing ghosts IIRC from what I saw <not really paying attention this week as much lol>).   

 

Ultimately, our long-term QBOTF is either a 2024 or 2025 rookie, unless we got Howell (but again, cheaply).   Let's recognize Payton took this job to put his stamp on the org, and have "his guy" who can run the system in his image - and that's a big reason why Russell Wilson is gone, because he couldn't, plain and simple.  I don't think Stidham is the answer either, but at least he makes all the throws to all areas of the field.    Who THAT guy is...well, that's probably going to dominate our chats until next draft in late April lol.

Jake Browning’s an ERFA. It’ll take at least a day two pick to get him out of CIN. 

[broncos67]

13 hours ago, AKRNA said:

I don't really know. I just look at the list you posted of our needs plus other positions and we're just really talent shy across the board. Right now I think a great DT would improve the team more than a rookie QB. Same with a TE. 

There's lots of QB FA's available this year and I'd bet there's one Sean really likes. I'll be curious to see which way he goes.

A great DT (none are available) might, and I'd stress *might* be an upgrade for next year, but we are once again in a prime position to draft a rookie QB that we can build around. If we forego QB again and sign Jimmy Garoppolo the fanbase should rightly lose their minds.

Michael Penix should be the pick. Just go get him. He's got the potential to do what Stroud did for Houston.

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

38 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

A great DT (none are available) might, and I'd stress *might* be an upgrade for next year, but we are once again in a prime position to draft a rookie QB that we can build around. If we forego QB again and sign Jimmy Garoppolo the fanbase should rightly lose their minds.

Michael Penix should be the pick. Just go get him. He's got the potential to do what Stroud did for Houston.

His injury concerns are real though. He is just as likely to have a RGIII like career as make a single pro-bowl. He is the ultimate FOMO pick. I wouldn’t hate the pick, but I wouldn’t make it. Not at 12 anyways. If we trade back to the late 1st m/ early 2nd and he’s there? Sure.

[big_palooka]

7 hours ago, Dbrog24 said:

Its not like we need the money for this coming year. Enjoy your incoming Brandon Staley hire

They don't plan to upgrade a poor roster this coming year?