detfan782004 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 34 minutes ago, Louis Friend said: But it plays into the analytics. It's not really analytics at that point. It's coach knowing his kicker sucks donkey. so the decision was go for it or punt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Towerbridge Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Hard to say the Lions are cursed because they hardly get this far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl4life07 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 56 minutes ago, detfan782004 said: It's not really analytics at that point. It's coach knowing his kicker sucks donkey. so the decision was go for it or punt. I disagree but in the Rams game Dan sent his kicker out instead of punting and the kicker nailed it. Dan wanted to be the smartest person in the room and it backfired. Just like it did in Dallas when he had not one, not two, but three times to kick the XP but he still went for two. Yes the refs messed them up on the first one but he shouldve kicked the XP after that but he didnt and the Lions lost. I was listening to the PFF podcast and one of them was saying how the Lions early in the game was playing like they were the 7.5pt underdogs with trick plays. When they built the 17pt lead they kept playing like they were the 7.5pt underdogs. Dan had no feel of they had control of that game to keep the Niners chasing. You put even one FG on the board up by 14pts you keep the Niners chasing the tie/lead and they would more than likely run out of time. So really Dan cost the Lions this game. Hopefully he will learn from this and be better. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWATcha Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I feel like Dan Gambler lost this game. Instead of kicking the field goal to keep the game a 3 score game, he went for it. Ok, not his fault or Goff's fault that Reynolds crumbled under pressure. Maybe the kicker misses it, but I'm going with he probably doesn't. Fast forward. Ayuk has a remarkable catch. Gibbs has a fumble. This is just football. Shtuff happens. Dan had a chance to kick a field goal, again. This time to tie the game. He opted to go for it again. This made no sense to me. Worst case scenario, you need to keep it a 1 score game. Not kicking the field goal there left the door open for it to become a 2 score game, with very little time left. Just a bad decision imo. THEN, even after all of that, after all the questionable decisions, they run on 3rd down and burn a TO. That, to me, was the most egregious error. Having all 3 timeouts gave them a chance. Instead, they burn the TO, and the Niners walk into the Super Bowl. Just some super questionable decisions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny/Patrick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 That Purdy pass to Aiyuk wasn’t overthrown I guarantee if Aiyuk doesn’t catch it it’s DPI 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Ramster Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 https://www.instagram.com/reel/C2qyH9mOZ4a/?igsh=ZWI2YzEzYmMxYg== lmao Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detfan782004 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 32 minutes ago, El Ramster said: https://www.instagram.com/reel/C2qyH9mOZ4a/?igsh=ZWI2YzEzYmMxYg== lmao Replace the other face with A Glenn and it's pretty spot on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrantikRam Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 8 hours ago, RaidersAreOne said: Would love to know what their percentage was against top 5 defenses Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefer Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Is there ever a time Analytics says don’t go for it? I feel like 95% of the time it’s telling you to go for it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 47 minutes ago, FrantikRam said: Would love to know what their percentage was against top 5 defenses Depends on what you are considering top 5 defenses (which I wouldn't consider the niners, but they played relatively few top ten defenses even, so it's all kind of the same), but on 4th and 3 or less: Against KC: 1 for 2 Baltimore: 0 for 1 (they were 2 for 6 total, but the others were all over three yards. 4th and 10, 4th and 8, etc) Dallas: 2 for 2 So just those three, 60%. Technically, New Orleans, Tampa and Vegas were all top ten scoring defenses (saints and Tampa were tied for fifth). They didn't go for one against the saints or bucs, were 1 for 1 against the raiders (actually made two though) Chicago and Green Bay were actually both top five in 4th down stop rate, but seems like a fairly small sample Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nabbs4u Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Chiefer said: Is there ever a time Analytics says don’t go for it? I feel like 95% of the time it’s telling you to go for it Exactly! Yet despite this " The Lions were 15 of 20 (75%) at converting 4th and 3 or fewer in the regular season, plus 2 of 2 in the postseason." Dan chose to kick a FG before 1/2 for a 24-7 lead instead? What was the difference? Common sense prevailed! Not arrogance or ego. Edited January 30 by Nabbs4u 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 5 minutes ago, Chiefer said: Is there ever a time Analytics says don’t go for it? I feel like 95% of the time it’s telling you to go for it Yep. People don't advertise it because when the model says punt, teams usually punt lol. But as I said, ESPN model was basically "IDGAF" for both of the decisions in this one. One was a .3% difference, the other .2%. One on the Ravens game was kick as well The models said green Bay should kick against the niners, I'm pretty sure. But overall, they do favor aggression. Not the same, but models share the aggressive instinct in poker too. Solvers like betting And again, this is even assuming that Campbell is using "analytics" and not just going gut 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HTTRDynasty Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Kittle is the GOAT 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 10 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said: Exactly! Yet despite this " The Lions were 15 of 20 (75%) at converting 4th and 3 or fewer in the regular season, plus 2 of 2 in the postseason." Dan chose to kick a FG before 1/2 for a 24-7 lead instead? What was the difference? Common sense prevailed! Not arrogance or ego. Seems like you can make the decision that kicking it there was a bad decision in hindsight lol (Though to be clear, I was fine with kicking that one) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 4 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said: Kittle is the GOAT 😂 Brock Purdy was having none of it lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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