mse326 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Here's a Twitter post from 2022 when the new rule was first announced, so no emotion bias based on this game And here is a pretty comprehensive ESPN article. Not saying this is all right, but it definitely explores all the arguments and leans towards stats over intuition https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39541332/49ers-chiefs-super-bowl-2024-decision-coin-toss-kyle-shanahan-mistake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 minutes ago, mse326 said: Here's a Twitter post from 2022 when the new rule was first announced, so no emotion bias based on this game Different look at it as well....nominal difference from based on the sims, I imagine, but also incorporating a lot of Brian's work: 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soggust Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 9 minutes ago, Forge said: Different look at it as well....nominal difference from based on the sims, I imagine, but also incorporating a lot of Brian's work: If my guy thinks I'm not willing to argue over .6%, he don't know the web. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 hours ago, Forge said: Different look at it as well....nominal difference from based on the sims, I imagine, but also incorporating a lot of Brian's work: This. It's a coin flip. We might as well be debating if they were wrong to call tails on the coin flip. It's the logical equivalent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakuvious Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 hours ago, Soggust said: If my guy thinks I'm not willing to argue over .6%, he don't know the web. Brock Purdy is the .6%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soggust Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 hours ago, Jakuvious said: Brock Purdy is the .6%. 60% this year. Webby could probably save a solid 7 dollars a month in data hosting fees from my rants, if people would just flip their rankings/perspectives of those two. It's like, people want to have subjective opinions when making ranked lists or something, and as a volunteer comparison police officer - I obv can't allow that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelKing728 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 On 2/12/2024 at 9:43 AM, warfelg said: The Ringer is reporting that Chiefs players knew and have practiced the new playoff overtime rules going back to TC, and Niners players (Armstead among them) are saying they didn’t learn about the new OT rules until it happened. I think one spot Reid needs continued praise on from his Philly days until now is that he’s really worked on being a better situational coach and has gotten better at knowing rules like this. Shanahan has seemed overwhelmed by situational or interesting rules concepts at times where his teams just dodn’t know about it. Was Reid really that bad at situational football back with Philly??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, SteelKing728 said: Was Reid really that bad at situational football back with Philly??? I lived in the area but wasn't a fan. But local media roasted him all the time for the going for it, clock management, over use of screens in long down situations. The clock management was bad. I remember a game they lost by 3, and he want into halftime with two TO's in the pocket and they had the ball to end the half failing to get a FG off after running the ball 2 times on 1st down with Westbrook. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefer Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 There’s only been one SB OT with the new rules, and two SB OTs overall. How the hell is that enough statistical data to draw a conclusion through analytics? Are they just making up data using “simulations”? This is part of the reason I don’t like Analytics. It seems like with things like this it’s not actually backed up by real data, but guesswork of a game played on a computer somewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 4 minutes ago, Chiefer said: There’s only been one SB OT with the new rules, and two SB OTs overall. How the hell is that enough statistical data to draw a conclusion through analytics? Are they just making up data using “simulations”? This is part of the reason I don’t like Analytics. It seems like with things like this it’s not actually backed up by real data, but guesswork of a game played on a computer somewhere. The new playoff overtime situation is very similar to NCAA’s structure that has been used for years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefer Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 26 minutes ago, warfelg said: The new playoff overtime situation is very similar to NCAA’s structure that has been used for years. Meh, I’ll stick with what Andy Reid thinks is right. Defer, go for two. Until there’s enough data to prove otherwise Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 29 minutes ago, warfelg said: The new playoff overtime situation is very similar to NCAA’s structure that has been used for years. NCAA doesn't have a sudden death component. Each team gets an equal number of possessions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 10 minutes ago, Chiefer said: Meh, I’ll stick with what Andy Reid thinks is right. Defer, go for two. Until there’s enough data to prove otherwise That’s the side I’m on. 7 minutes ago, squire12 said: NCAA doesn't have a sudden death component. Each team gets an equal number of possessions. Yes but if the team that goes second knows they need a TD, it tips the odds in their favor to win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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