Minute Mock rev 2- 1 round mid free agency mock draft with 5 trades

[minutemancl]

1 Chicago Bears- Caleb Williams, QB USC

I don’t think they screw this up

2 Washington Commanders- Jayden Daniels, QB LSU

I’m buying into the recent rumors. The Mariota signing was the most important to me- I really think the Commanders are going to try to tailor the offensive personnel to Kliff.

3 New England Patriots- JJ McCarthy, QB Michigan

I’m also buying the rumors of teams being low on Drake Maye. I still maintain New England stays put at 3 and takes a QB. I think JJ is the pick here over Maye.

4 Arizona Cardinals- Marvin Harrison Jr, WR Ohio State

I think the Cardinals field trade calls here, but don’t take any (they aren’t willing to trade all the way back to 11) and they take the best WR in a WR rich draft.

*TRADE* The Los Angeles Chargers trade pick 5 to the New York Giants in exchange for picks 6 and a 2025 1st round pick

5 New York Giants- Drake Maye, QB UNC

It is no secret Joe Schoen loves Drake Maye and is willing to pay anything to get his guy. With the Vikings also knocking on the door to trade up here, the Giants have to offer a ton to move up just one spot, but they get their guy. The Chargers, meanwhile, make out like bandits.

*TRADE* The Los Angeles Chargers trade pick 6 to the Minnesota Vikings in exchange for picks 11, 42, and a 2025 2nd round pick

6 Minnesota Vikings- Michael Penix, QB Washington

With only one worthwhile QB remaining (in NFL teams’ eyes), there is a mad dash to acquire him, with the Vikings, Broncos, and Raiders all scrambling to trade up for Penix. The Vikings win out and take Penix. The Chargers make out like bandits AGAIN.

7 Tennessee Titans- Malik Nabers, WR LSU

The Titans are also a beneficiary of all this QB hoopla, as they get one of the top 3 WRs at 7. OL is a popular selection for the Titans, but if you look at their new GM and HC, you’ll see a pattern of prioritizing not just 1 or 2, but 3 great receiving options.

*TRADE* The Atlanta Falcons trade pick 8 to the Chicago Bears in exchange for picks 9 and 110

8 Chicago Bears- Rome Odunze, WR Washington

The Bears trade up one spot to secure their guy, as the Bills are aggressively making calls. It’s a poorly kept secret that the Bears would love to come out of the top-10 with Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze.

9 Atlanta Falcons- Quinyon Mitchell, CB Toledo

Yes, a CB from Toledo is the first defensive player drafted. Raheem Morris opts to solidify an already solid secondary with a stud corner.

10 New York Jets- Joe Alt, T Notre Dame

What a coup it would be for Alt to fall to the Jets. This would be a no brainer

11 Los Angeles Chargers- Dallas Turner, EDGE Alabama

The Chargers finally make their pick, and they have their choice of EDGE rushers to assumedly replace Joey Bosa and/or Khalil Mack, who will have to be released/traded. It’s a very good situation to be in. Harbaugh opts to select the guy he saw in person and the one with the superb athletic testing and level of competition.

*TRADE* the Denver Broncos trade pick 12 to the Buffalo Bills in exchange for picks 28, 60, and a 2025 2nd round pick

12 Buffalo Bills- Brian Thomas Jr, WR LSU

The Bills make a BIG move up with the Broncos, who are open to moving down and acquiring draft capital after missing on a QB, to secure Brian Thomas Jr. The Bills try to take advantage of a window that some view as closing rather than firmly open.

13 Las Vegas Raiders- Taliese Fuaga, OL Oregon State

The Raiders lose out on QBs, but are able to land (who is now) the consensus #2 tackle in the draft in Fuaga. I imagine Antonio Pierce is a big fan of his nasty streak. He immediately starts at RT after the Raiders lost Eluemunor in FA.

14 New Orleans Saints- Troy Fautanu, OL Washington

The Saints need trenches help big time. The consensus OL rankings seem to be in flux at the moment, but I think Fautanu will ultimately be a top-15 pick when all is said and done.

15 Indianapolis Colts- Jared Verse, EDGE FSU

Verse falls to 15 and the Colts are the beneficiary of his fall. Predicting ANY pick to the Colts with less than a 9.5 RAS is just never going to happen, and Verse tested very well. A little more juice on the edge for a solidly constructed team is always a good choice. I considered Bowers here as well, but the Colts have invested in some supremely athletic TEs in the mid rounds the last few years that I imagine they’d like to see develop. Tough choice though.

16 Seattle Seahawks- Jackson Powers-Johnson, iOL Oregon

The Seahawks are in the unfortunate position of having to draft for need on the interior of the OL. Fortunately, JPJ is a solid value pick here as well as filling a huge need.

17 Jacksonville Jaguars- Byron Murphy, DT Texas

Murphy’s fall stops here to the Jags, who need talent on the defensive interior.

18 Cincinnati Bengals- Brock Bowers, TE Georgia

 The Bengals are the beneficiaries of the poor relative value of tight ends in general and are able to grab a true tight end receiving threat for Burrow. This would also help facilitate a trade of Tee Higgins, as you are still able to maintain 3 true receiving threats on the roster.

19 Los Angeles Rams- Terrion Arnold, CB Alabama

Should be a run to the podium type pick. The Rams spent a lot of money to solidify their interior OL and turn that into a true strength. They attack their other main weakness here.

20 Pittsburgh Steelers- Olu Fashanu, T Penn State

You know it is a deep draft when it seems like every pick after 15 is a steal. Fashanu should feel like that for the Steelers here.

21 Miami Dolphins- JC Latham, T Alabama

Latham is the last guy who is really ‘standing out’ here at this point in the draft, as his consensus big board ranking is higher than 21. He may not be an immediate contributor, but the Dolphins almost lost Armstead this year, which would have been a huge blow. He can step right in at LT when Armstead does inevitably retire.

22 Philadelphia Eagles- Cooper Dejean, CB Iowa

I strongly considered Adarius Mims here, but the Eagles seem to be trying to maximize a window, and Dejean would be more of an immediate impact than Mims, who would mainly be the continuation plan for when Lane Johnson inevitably moves on.

23 Houston Texans- Adonai Mitchell, WR Texas

The Texans have been big spenders on the defensive side of the ball this offseason. As much as I want to give them Johnny Newton, Mitchell here would be a huge swing and potential enormous upgrade to the offense.

24 Dallas Cowboys- Amarius Mims, T Georgia

The Cowboys opt for Mims over Guyton due to his freakish athletic profile and positional versatility (he trained 60-40 left/right side throughout the season last year). Tyron Smith is poised to leave, and the Cowboys land his replacement.

*TRADE* The Green Bay Packers trade pick 25 to the Kansas City Chiefs in exchange for picks 32, 95, and a 2025 3rd round pick

25 Kansas City Chiefs- Xavier Worthy, WR Texas

The Chiefs see the run on tier 2 WRs starting and jump up for Worthy, whose next level speed they envision being a huge boon to their offense. Honestly, just the thought of Mahomes throwing rockets to Worthy 70 yards down the field is very fun.

26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Nate Wiggins, CB Clemson

The Bucs grab the last consensus round 1 corner remaining in Wiggins. He is slight, but has fantastic speed and fills a need.

27 Arizona Cardinals- Johnny Newton, iDL Illinois

This is too perfect of a match here for the Cardinals. They’ve made some signings on the defensive interior, but none have the talent that Newton has.

28 Denver Broncos- Laiatu Latu, EDGE UCLA

The Broncos move back a ton of spots, pick up a bunch of draft capital, and are still able to land one of the top 4 EDGE rushers in the draft at 28. The choice here is between Latu and Chop Robinson, and they opt for Latu has the better tape.

29 Detroit Lions- Graham Barton, iOL Duke

The Lions could go a few directions here, but they’ve had the success they’ve had recently in large part due to the strength of their offensive line, and they opt to keep that a strength and take Barton. He may not even start right away, but he can play anywhere on the interior and could potentially even be a replacement for Ragnow at C, who isn’t getting any younger.

30 Baltimore Ravens- Tyler Guyton, T Oklahoma

I think I made the same pick for the Ravens in my last mock, and this is for the same reason. He’s the best player available, and the Ravens will regularly stay put and just take the best player available.

31 San Francisco 49ers- Zach Frasier, iOL West Virginia

The Niners would have preferred Barton or Guyton here, but they take the best remaining iOL here in Frasier, who is still a super solid prospect.

32 Green Bay Packers- Chop Robinson, EDGE Penn State

The best player available here is pretty clearly Chop. Would the Packers go that way with some really good players and big investments at EDGE already? I think they would. The other options are along the OL, where the best player available is probably Jordan Morgan from Arizona, who would be a good pick here, or in the secondary, where the best players available are Kool-Aid McKinstry and Tyler Nubin. I don’t think either of those guys are worth 1st round picks. They go Chop Robinson here instead, with the thought process of “you can never have enough pass rushers”.

Trades were made with loose consideration to the Rich Hill trade value chart. They definitely aren't perfect, so please take future years draft picks included in trades with a grain of salt.

[The Gnat]

I really like Penix, I'd even take him at 11, or move up a bit less. But I don't think that the Vikings would move up to 6 for him. It feels like a bad move, even for a player that I like. It does guarantee the QB need for the Vikings. But I don't think it's required to make that move or that much of a move.

[LinderFournette]

Much rather add another CB or edge then Murphy. Id also grab Bowers because imagine trying to defend Bowers and engram lol

[minutemancl]

16 minutes ago, The Gnat said:

I really like Penix, I'd even take him at 11, or move up a bit less. But I don't think that the Vikings would move up to 6 for him. It feels like a bad move, even for a player that I like. It does guarantee the QB need for the Vikings. But I don't think it's required to make that move or that much of a move.

I think there is a 1% chance the Vikings actually move up to 6 for Penix, but this is just the way I have it going in this mock draft with 4 QBs going in the top 5. I do wonder what the Vikings move will actually be if that happens. I have a gut feeling that Sean Payton is going to be looking strongly at Penix, and they hold the pick just a few after the Vikings.

It's not a good situation honestly for the Vikings, Broncos, and Raiders. 3 QBs are going top-3, I can guarantee that. Whoever falls- Daniels, McCarthy, or Maye- will most likely be highly coveted by those 3 teams plus the Giants. If I'm the Cardinals or Chargers and I get trade calls from those 4 teams, who am I taking the offer from- the one where I move back 6+ spots, or the one where I move back 1 or 2 and can still get the blue chip prospect I want?

[Daniel]

It would make me sick for the Titans to pass on Alt.  But you are right about Callahan's preferences.  He's even openly said he "prefers the guys who actually score the touchdowns."

Of course that tendency has also resulted in his franchise QB being injured a couple of times, so I hope maybe he's changed that tendency myself.  But I also will say I think the Titans brass prefers Odunze to Nabers.

[drew39k]

Minor nitpick. I don't think a move from 6 to 5 would cost a future first. At most I think it costs a 2nd rounder. There's value in not actually missing out on any players at all.

[vike daddy]

2 hours ago, minutemancl said:

I think there is a 1% chance the Vikings actually move up to 6 for Penix, but this is just the way I have it going in this mock draft with 4 QBs going in the top 5. I do wonder what the Vikings move will actually be if that happens. I have a gut feeling that Sean Payton is going to be looking strongly at Penix, and they hold the pick just a few after the Vikings.

It's not a good situation honestly for the Vikings, Broncos, and Raiders. 3 QBs are going top-3, I can guarantee that. 

what comes with your guarantee if you're wrong? cash compensation? stock swap? humiliating pics on the internet?

 

i can see NE taking Harrison Jr at #3 and trading back into the late 1st for Penix.

[minutemancl]

1 hour ago, Daniel said:

It would make me sick for the Titans to pass on Alt.  But you are right about Callahan's preferences.  He's even openly said he "prefers the guys who actually score the touchdowns."

Of course that tendency has also resulted in his franchise QB being injured a couple of times, so I hope maybe he's changed that tendency myself.  But I also will say I think the Titans brass prefers Odunze to Nabers.

I thought about this as well and certainly considered Odunze there.

1 hour ago, drew39k said:

Minor nitpick. I don't think a move from 6 to 5 would cost a future first. At most I think it costs a 2nd rounder. There's value in not actually missing out on any players at all.

I agree. To be honest, I got lazy on the trade compensation there and just threw the future 1st in there lol. It would be more than you think for the Giants to trade up 1 spot for a QB though. There are going to be other teams calling which will drive up the price.

25 minutes ago, vike daddy said:

what comes with your guarantee if you're wrong? cash compensation? stock swap? humiliating pics on the internet?

 

i can see NE taking Harrison Jr at #3 and trading back into the late 1st for Penix.

I would offer a sig bet, but I turned off being able to see signatures on this site, so that doesn't even really mean anything to me anymore. I'm just very, very confident the first 3 picks are QB, whether New England actually picks at 3 or not.

[vike daddy]

3 minutes ago, minutemancl said:

I'm just very, very confident the first 3 picks are QB, whether New England actually picks at 3 or not.

that's a good point. if they trade the #3, that team is likely to do so.

carry on! lol

[Dr LBC]

2 hours ago, minutemancl said:

I think there is a 1% chance the Vikings actually move up to 6 for Penix, but this is just the way I have it going in this mock draft with 4 QBs going in the top 5. I do wonder what the Vikings move will actually be if that happens. I have a gut feeling that Sean Payton is going to be looking strongly at Penix, and they hold the pick just a few after the Vikings.

It's not a good situation honestly for the Vikings, Broncos, and Raiders. 3 QBs are going top-3, I can guarantee that. Whoever falls- Daniels, McCarthy, or Maye- will most likely be highly coveted by those 3 teams plus the Giants. If I'm the Cardinals or Chargers and I get trade calls from those 4 teams, who am I taking the offer from- the one where I move back 6+ spots, or the one where I move back 1 or 2 and can still get the blue chip prospect I want?

Adding a bit more ammo to hit case, in that scenario it does have to be considered that the other two teams the Vikings would be bidding against would be direct divisional rivals of the Chargers - where, at minimum, they're going to be made to pay a heftier premium (and Denver's still pretty strapped for draft capital this year, aren't they?) - and Minnesota's going to know this.  Now there's the Super Villain scenario, where Harbaugh undoubtedly did a hefty amount of tape study on Penix going into the NC game, and if he came away from that tape study the same way that Mark Schlereth did, he might be more inclined to let a division rival hitch their wagon and presumed immediate future to Penix (he is, after all, a former QB and QB coach himself).  But that's so low probability it's hardly worth discussing.

That said, and I realize this is fantasy (but...), I think the multiple trade-backs pushes the envelop a bit much for the Chargers if they're looking at the big picture.  If they're able to trade back and still get Alt (and given the strength of Alt and Fuaga's run-blocking over Fashanu's it's pretty clear who Harbaugh and Greg Roman are going to favor) along with a future 1st, you take that and run away with it.  You have to look at the bigger picture of what Alt (making the relatively safe assumption he doesn't bust) gives them:.

• The opportunity to get out from under the moronic extension Tom Telesco gave Trey Pipkins, despite Pipkins being JAG but was "one of TT's guys."  Pipkins will only have a year left on his deal in 2025 (his age 29 season), but in 2025 all the guarantees will have already been met, and he's only a $2.5m deap cap to cut and frees up more than $4m more.
• Looking ahead to 2025, Rashawn Slater will be on his 5th year option, so at minimum approaching extension time and also his cap-hit would jump pretty significantly.  This gives them insurance against losing him.  Allows them to pop Alt in his rookie year at ROT (where he does have experience), and have some potential flexibility in negotiations with Slater (who isn't without his injury issues in the past).

If the Chargers do end up trading back out of the Top 10, while I do get the allure of the "best EDGE in the draft;" it's not exactly the strongest EDGE class so that's a bitter tempered a statement.  And they're not likely to cut/trade both of Bosa and Mack, so they'll still have Tuipulotu who effectively started for Bosa a decent chunk of last season.  Meanwhile they've got a whopping 1 center on the roster presently (and the longer free agency goes on without them signing a center, the more inclined I am to believe they'll be drafting one early): A 2nd-year converted RG from DII Minnesota-Duluth named Brett Laing.  If the Chargers trade back into the Top 15 (or further), I would say the more and more likely they would be to target Powers-Jackson who fills a whole-lotta need.

 

Also, I'd argue the Rams biggest need isn't CB, it's getting another EDGE to help keep teams from consistently tripling Aaron Donald.  I don't love this EDGE class, but unless Snead's got a guy he expects to fall into Day 2 or 3 that he's really in love with, they may not have a choice but to invest early on in this class.

[scar988]

3 hours ago, minutemancl said:

*TRADE* The Atlanta Falcons trade pick 8 to the Chicago Bears in exchange for picks 9 and 110

 

Uh... ok.

3 hours ago, minutemancl said:

 

9 Atlanta Falcons- Quinyon Mitchell, CB Toledo

Yes, a CB from Toledo is the first defensive player drafted. Raheem Morris opts to solidify an already solid secondary with a stud corner.

The Falcons draft BPA. Taking a mid-first round talent over high first round talents at OT or EDGE in Alt or Turner isn't going to happen. One of those guys would be the pick.

[OneTwoSixFive]

A shame there wasn't a round 2 as you had the Packers trading down, but its a solid strategy, as I see the most value (for the Packers) as being in rounds 2-3.

Interior O linemen, safeties, slot corners, outside corner, ILB, RB, are among the positions in play here.

[indifference]

Think Bucs would take Latu over Wiggins there. They just don't have a good pass rush from the edge and he'd be dominant lined up with Kancey and Vea next to him. Bowles tends to draft CBs later anyway.

[vike daddy]

1 hour ago, Dr LBC said:

lots of good stuff...

to agree with you, i also look at Harbaugh's choice of where QB3 or 4 goes in this draft and that it could be his protege, McCarthy being traded for, in essence. would he rather see him in Minnesota, or twice a year with Denver or Las Vegas?

[NudeTayne]

These trades are wild.