craig Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 20 hours ago, Mazrimiv said: Depends entirely on how Gute's tiers are set. If it's pick 20, and those are the last 3 guys from Gute's highest remaining tier, he'll be making some calls. If there are still 5-6 guys left that he has rated on the same tier, he'll let things play out and pick from whoever is left at pick 25. I just see the 20-25 range as likely to be where one of Gute's tiers dries up, so I can imagine him making a small trade up to get his remaining guy. Good logic. I also think this logic depends on how separable the "tiers" are? Guessing sometimes there is a continuum between one tier and the next. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mazrimiv Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 36 minutes ago, craig said: Good logic. I also think this logic depends on how separable the "tiers" are? Guessing sometimes there is a continuum between one tier and the next. My admittedly overly simplistic view of draft tiers is that they are set up to define relatively clear cutoffs in how Gute has the players rated. Generally speaking, if Gute thinks GB's draft slot is on the cusp of where players in his highest remaining tier will go off the board, that's when he'll be looking to trade up. On the flip side, if he expects a block of players from his highest remaining tier to be available, he'll field offers to trade back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReasonablySober Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Recent history shows us it would cost #25, #126 (4th), and #202 (6th) to move up to #22. I think there's a good chance that happens if Gute really likes Mims (or Barton or DeJean) and only one is left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R T Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 4 minutes ago, ReasonablySober said: Recent history shows us it would cost #25, #126 (4th), and #202 (6th) to move up to #22. I think there's a good chance that happens if Gute really likes Mims (or Barton or DeJean) and only one is left. Miami is probably the most likely 'small move up' trade partner for the Packers, the Dolphins only have 2 picks in the first four rounds, and it is highly likely they trade down from 21. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandy Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 9 minutes ago, ReasonablySober said: Recent history shows us it would cost #25, #126 (4th), and #202 (6th) to move up to #22. I think there's a good chance that happens if Gute really likes Mims (or Barton or DeJean) and only one is left. I just have a hard time seeing how only one of them is left without some other great player falling to us. At this point I see no fewer than 5 QBs going in the top 15, so if we also see 4 WR, 1 TE, the top 5 tackles, 3 edge, 2 DB and Murphy get picked, then we're guaranteed one of Mims, Barton, DeJean or JPJ to last to 25. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mazrimiv Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 42 minutes ago, Sandy said: I just have a hard time seeing how only one of them is left without some other great player falling to us. At this point I see no fewer than 5 QBs going in the top 15, so if we also see 4 WR, 1 TE, the top 5 tackles, 3 edge, 2 DB and Murphy get picked, then we're guaranteed one of Mims, Barton, DeJean or JPJ to last to 25. For me, JPJ and Guyton are the wildcards. If Gute is fine with taking them at 25, he'll just sit at 25 and let the board come to him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegas492 Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 46 minutes ago, Sandy said: I just have a hard time seeing how only one of them is left without some other great player falling to us. At this point I see no fewer than 5 QBs going in the top 15, so if we also see 4 WR, 1 TE, the top 5 tackles, 3 edge, 2 DB and Murphy get picked, then we're guaranteed one of Mims, Barton, DeJean or JPJ to last to 25. Just me thinking out loud here, but I'll bet that we have Darius Robinson ranked highly on our board in that range as well. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
{Family Ghost} Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 20 minutes ago, vegas492 said: Just me thinking out loud here, but I'll bet that we have Darius Robinson ranked highly on our board in that range as well. Ben Fennell predicted Darius Robinson to the Packers at #25 the other day, but wasn't too happy about it. He's got that prototypical 5T size the Packers will covet. Hoping he's more of a target at #41 than #25. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brit Pack Posted April 22 Author Share Posted April 22 If Barton or DeJean are not there I see 25 as a free hit. Just go pure BPA. The needs of Safety and ILB will be addressed predominantly in the 2nd round and 3rd rounds. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
{Family Ghost} Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 (edited) 57 minutes ago, Brit Pack said: If Barton or DeJean are not there I see 25 as a free hit. Just go pure BPA. The needs of Safety and ILB will be addressed predominantly in the 2nd round and 3rd rounds. Gute said in his presser today that he'd like 13 to 14 draft picks ideally. He's probably much more apt to trade back under a scenario like that. Could all be draft speak, but I think he might be looking to add picks and a trade back in round one could net him an extra pick or two. Edited April 22 by {Family Ghost} Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brit Pack Posted April 22 Author Share Posted April 22 14 minutes ago, {Family Ghost} said: Gute said in his presser today that he'd like 13 to 14 draft picks ideally. He's probably much more apt to trade back under a scenario like that. Could all be draft speak, but I think he might be looks not to add picks and a trade back in round one could net him an extra pick or two. My opening take and preference is really a trade down Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegas492 Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 2 hours ago, {Family Ghost} said: Ben Fennell predicted Darius Robinson to the Packers at #25 the other day, but wasn't too happy about it. He's got that prototypical 5T size the Packers will covet. Hoping he's more of a target at #41 than #25. Isn't that a seasoning? Fennell? Either way, doesn't matter to me which "writer" mocked someone to us. When I see him play, he plays like a first round pick. He's no EDGE. But he's a DL all day long. I don't feel like he's ever going to be a flashy player, but I do think he can be a solid anchor to any DL, similar to Cam Hayward. Course, he can come in and play right away. He doesn't need to red shirt. So we might as well pass him by so we can take (insert developmental tackle name here) instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craig Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 3 hours ago, Mazrimiv said: My admittedly overly simplistic view of draft tiers is that they are set up to define relatively clear cutoffs in how Gute has the players rated. Generally speaking, if Gute thinks GB's draft slot is on the cusp of where players in his highest remaining tier will go off the board, that's when he'll be looking to trade up. On the flip side, if he expects a block of players from his highest remaining tier to be available, he'll field offers to trade back. Yeah, I get that logic, totally logical . I guess I'm kinda wondering whether in reality, there may not be either very clear separation, or more importantly very large separation, between one tier and the next? (In the top end of round one, maybe there is pretty large separation, but that shrinks as picks go by...) Per a trade-value chart I'm looking at: pick 91 would barely reach Pittsburgh's pick 20, easily surpass Miami's pick 21. 4th round pick would merit move to 24, barely reach Vikings pick 23, but not reach Philly's pick 22. Is there enough value-differential between higher tier and next tier to sacrifice 91? Or is the value differential between end-of-tier and top-of-tier only enough to justify a 4th, or maybe not even that? Like, maybe there's a hypothetical tier with 3 left when Pittsburgh comes up. I'm probably not trading up. If it's Pittsburgh and I've got only one guy left, maybe from my top 15 guys, and I think that's a big separation from the next tier, I'm trading the 3rd. Or, maybe only one from my higher tier is there when it's Pittsburgh, but I just don't really think the value-differential between that tier and the next is worth a 3rd. So I'm not doing it. Dumb analogy: If I have a class with 200 students, I have to assign A-B-C letter grades so in a sense those are students in different tiers. A high-end straight A student is in a different world from an average B student. But the threshold between my "A" tier and my "B" tier, I have to have a cutoff, but the spacing between the lowest "A" student and the best "B" student is tiny. Heh heh, too small to merit a 3rd round pick! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegas492 Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 59 minutes ago, Brit Pack said: My opening take and preference is really a trade down I've said that every year when I look at most every draft we've ever been in. It's the logical thing to do. Trade back, accumulate picks, see who pans out. The more picks you have the more likely you are to "hit" on picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJerkDave Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 26 minutes ago, vegas492 said: So we might as well pass him by so we can take (insert developmental tackle name here) instead. Need more Iowa defensive backs, because it works out every time! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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