BDL 2017 Semifinals Cuba Smugglers vs. Seoul Dragons

[DingoLadd]

BDL 2017 Divisional Round: 

Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
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One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

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Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (GTD) are game-time decisions.

 

[DingoLadd]

The Cuba Smugglers, 2017 Atlantic Divisional winner. 

QB: Kirk Cousins 
RB: Frank Gore
WR: Julio Jones
WR: Kelvin Benjamin 
TE: Jack Doyle
TE: Antonio Gates
LT: Anthony Castonzo
LG: Joe Berger
C: Johnathan Sullivan
RG: David DeCastro
RT: Rob Havenstien

RB: Tevin Coleman
OW: Tavon Austin
WR: Michael Floyd
WR: DeMarcus Robinson
OL: Eric Wood
FB: Anthony Sherman
RB: Jamaal Charles
TE: Ed Dickson

RDE: Calais Campbell
DT: Willie Henry
DT: Fletcher Cox
Edge: Terrell Suggs
MLB: Derrick Johnson
SLB: Brandon Marshall
RCB: Jamar Taylor
NCB: Anthony Brown
FS: LaMarcus Joyner
SS: Morgan Burnett
LCB: Desmond Trufant

FS: Tre Boston
DE: Carl Nassib
DE: Derrick Shelby
LB: TJ McDonald
SS: Johnathan Cyprien
Edge: Julius Peppers
NCB: Lardarius Webb
SLB: Jordan Jenkins

The Seoul Dragons, 2017 Pacific Divisional Winner.

QB Matt Ryan

RB Jay Ajayi

WR AJ Green

WR TY Hilton

TE Travis Kelce

TE Jason Witten

LT Ronnie Stanley

LG Kevin Zeitler

C Alex Mack

RG Rodger Saffold

RT Ryan Schraeder

 

Bench RB Kenyan Drake

Bench RB Isaiah Crowell

Bench WR Tyrell Williams

Bench WR Dontrelle Inman

Bench FB Patrick DiMarco

Bench TE Gerald Everett

Bench OL Matt Paradis

Bench OL Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff

 

LE Melvin Ingram

DT Gerald McCoy (Q)

DT Geno Atkins

RE Anthony Zettel

WLB Nigel Bradham

MLB Demario Davis

CB Aqib Talib

CB Darius Slay

CB Kendall Fuller (Q)

FS Marcus Williams

SS Barry Church

 

 

Bench Edge Derek Barnett

Bench Edge Jason Pierre-Paul (Q)

Bench Int Shelby Harris

Bench Int Stacy McGee

Bench LB Anthony Hitchens

Bench CB EJ Gaines (Q)

Bench CB Robert Alford

Bench S Mike Adams

[DingoLadd]

Cuba Gameplan:

Motivation
One game away from the first Cuba bizz bowl appearance. The defending champions Dragons in our way bring the most recent champions into a neutral site. We expect TedLavie will bring some championship pedigree with his approach to this game. The goal today is simple. Get to the championship game!

Offense 

Seoul is well rounded on defense. They bring an average pair of LBs due to injuries. In anticipation they'll prepare for a 3WR/1TE or Tavon Austin getting the start we will give the nod to Antonio Gates. 

Kirk Cousins has been everything for the offense. We're going to bring a ball control scheme and want a dead even ratio of run/pass. Even if we are down in the early stages we want to run the ball. Frank Gore is the workhorse back in the early stages. As he showed in a 37 touch performance a couple weeks ago, he can handle a feature role for one game. His presence means Seoul will be unable to key on pass/run. He can handle touches in every formation and no particular situation does his weakness show itself. Coleman subs him as we enter the second half and homestretch of the game. Antonio Gates will be targeted with some play action passes where Jack Doyle can instead serve as protection help on the edge.

Expect a balance on getting edge protectors help. Particularly helping Rob Havenstien against Derek Barrett. Frank Gore will have some chip responsibility for the game against Melvin Ingram, though Castanzo has been good enough this year to handle Ingram one on one frequently.

This is a strong pair of cover CBs. Julio Jones will be targeted if he's covered by Darius Slay. Kelvin Benjamin had some success on Slay earlier this year so we'll make sure to target him the redzone. If Talib covers Benjamin we'll try getting Julio involved even with safety help for Slay. The rub routes and bunch formations are the best bet for Julio to get his catches. In the later stages of the game, we will increase bunch formations so we can make it hard to press our big bodies weapons. The obvious gameplan is we want to run a very diverse amount of weapons to touch then ball. Michael Floyd and DeMarcus Robinson being targeted a couple times suffice this idea. We will try a special formation with Tavon Austin as the flex motion where he lines up at TE next to Doyle. His motions are new wrinkles of doing the same stuff we've used this year. On about 15 snaps he should touch the ball 5-6 times around the LOS.

Gameplan

Run Frank Gore consistently. Everything else becomes possible off play action. Kirk Cousins reads coverages and gets guys like Jack Doyle and Michael Floyd/DeMarcus Robinson (read: 3 catches combined works) early. Helps in later stages when Julio and Kelvin Benjamin get involved. If they are presumably shadowed we will place them next to each other (bunch formations) and get rubs to target Julio. Benjamin injured or not will be targeted in the redzone by Cousins. Accept possible stops by avoiding turnovers. Tevin Coleman as the homerun hitter during the later stages. 

Defense

Matt Ryan is quite the enigma. When he's on like last season, this team will probably beat us. We can handle a solid performance from the passer and the talent on this defense has us confident if we put them in the right spot. 

Beginning with our line sets we are interested in spreading the wealth of talent across the front four. Calais Campbell on the edge gives Ronnie Stanley all he can handle as a run defender. The pass rush (12.5 sacks) is icing on the cake. Willie Henry and Terrell Suggs represent one of the stronger RL pass rushes, but Fletcher Cox is the reason we can control the line of scrimmage. His ability to stop the run is a massive asset. With Campbell outside we think stretch runs and counters can be stopped. The goal now is Cox getting help from Henry inside on run stopping situations. Calais Campbell will move inside on pass rush occasions to place him next to Fletcher Cox, and Suggs/Peppers bring the edge rush. Carl Nassib and Derek Shelby are bigger edge defenders with run defense responsibility while Kyle Van Noy plays the edge rush for depth purposes. We suspect the interior may be an issue in run defense, but the edge will not be problem.

Guys like Johnathan Cyprien and TJ McDonald receive more run with Van Noy unable to play. In man coverage Brandon Marshall will serve as a spy or blitzer.  Derrick Johnson has been brilliant in pass coverage this year and gets additional help from Morgan Burnett. They dealt with Fitzgerald last week and will team to stop Travis Kelce this week. Despite three strong receivers, Kelce is our main player to stop. If Jay Ajayi is the focal runner we can keep this scheme and try some two man under schemes mixed with Marshall serving as the blitz. Kenyan Drake will be more served as a capable passing offense with a viable check down receiver.  

Desmond Trufant to do some light shadow onto AJ Green. He'll do some following particularly when Jay Ajayi is in the backfield. Some help arrives from LaMarcus Joyner when we play man coverage. If we're in cover 3/4, Trufant will have a primary responsibility of protecting the deep ball while responsible for out and comeback routes. Joyner's primary responsibility comes as being the help for Ty Hilton's CB. Jamar Taylor and Anthony Brown have been strong in the slot, which is a credible wrinkle for getting Hilton the ball. Anthony Brown shut Tyreek Hill down earlier this year (3 targets, 1 catch/8 yards) and Ty Hilton is similarly built with his strongest ability being the threat of breaking big plays. Brown is also coming off his top performance this year. Both guys will get help repeatedly vs Hilton. Jamar Taylor would get the nod against Chris Hogan if he finally plays in man coverage. This could be the one matchup we're forced to make reduce how much help we provide. Tre Boston would serve as the deep help when Joyner worries about Green/Trufant and Burnett moves to LB. 

Gameplan
Diverse amount of talent requires variety of coverage. Regardless of backfield, our main goal is to trap and double Travis Kelce. If Ajayi is the feature back we'll run a decent amount of 5 man pressures and two man under schemes where Ty Hilton's guy gets safety help. If Kenyan Drake gets the start we'll play more zone coverage. With less shadow responsibility, Trufant will still remain mostly ISO in coverage. Jamar Taylor gets help deep and Brandon Marshall takes more snaps from the coverage LB position. The focus remains clear in either event, Travis Kelce will NOT be the reason we lose this game.

 

Seoul Gameplan: 

 

Offense

 

This week we will emphasize the running game a bit more than these last weeks. Cuba DL is really good, there’s no denying that, but they do sometimes like to put Calais inside and play Suggs and Peppers on the edge to be very aggressive in pass rushing. We will try to use that to our advantage by running counters and draws. 

But really, where we have a huge advantage is at the second level, as Cuba is starting Derrick Johnson at KD all year despite him being a push over in run defense. Brandon Marshall is a better run defender, but he’s not Luke Kuechly either, and Cuba safeties are better pass defenders than run defenders, especially is Burnett starts at nickel back again. With our strong run blocking OL and a stud blocker in Kelce and other good blockers in DiMarco and Witten that will play meaningful snaps, we think we can pound the ball inside and outside and get our running backs solid lanes, despite Cuba strong DL. As always, we do like our ability to run outside with tosses, sweeps, off tackle runs and pitches, especially when we pull one of our athletic guards outside.

We will play a lot of 2 TE sets and 1FB 1TE sets and run the bull behind it. Ratio will be 60-65% run and 35-40% pass 

In terms of passing, as always, we will take what the defense gives us, but we expect a lot of targets going to Kelce, whether in man or in zone, all over the field. He’s too big for Joyner/Burnett/Boston and too fast for Johnson, can will run a lot of zone routes if Cuba comes out primarily in zone. If Cuba decides to double team him with a LB and a safety, it will give us 1vs1 matchups with Hilton and Green and Hogan is he plays, that we will take advantage of.

Whoever is covered by Trufant will run mainly routes that work well vs zone defenses (deep curls, sideline routes). In man, we will only target a Trufant-covered AJ Green in goal line situations and 3^rd and shorts, where we can use his size vs a smaller defender. TY Hilton or Tyrell Williams (who will play outside in 3WR sets), will run deep routes. If they play 1vs1 vs a limited Jamar Taylor, we will not be afraid to for the deep shot. We will use our slot WR (Hilton in 3WR sets) in flood routes with Kelce on the same side, or on slant routes where he will use his speed and route running ability to beat Brown or Burnett. As for Jason Witten, he will be our safety valve for short, safe gains vs Van Noy or Marshall, who he should beat easily.

If we see two double teams in man coverage (Kelce and Hilton probably), we will try to run some catch and run routes with a RB or AJ Green, whether it’s a screen or a pick play.

In pass protection, we will leave a RB in pass protection or, at least, use them on delayed routes. Our RB will help one of our tackles vs Calais, with Cox double teamed inside. RBs will also be used on blitz pickups, in which case a TE (mainly Witten when he plays), chipping the edge defender before releasing to his route.

 

Defense

 

With Rex Burhead out, Cuba will start Gore or Coleman at RB. We expect them to take a mor run-oriented approach because of that. We will line up Church in the box, and his assignment will vary greatly to keep Cuba offense guessing. He will either have coverage duties on the TE, drop back deep to play a cover 2 deep scheme or blitz. Having him lined up in the box should help us stop the run.

We will play our usual off man coverage with Slay on Benjamin, Fuller on Austin (or whoever plays in the slot), Church or Bradham on the TE and Davis on the RB. We will frequently (40% of the snaps) send a blitzer to put pressure on Cousins, and give our DLinemen 1vs1 matchups. If a RB stays in pass pro, the cover LB on him will be sent in delayed blitz. When rushing only four, we will have either Church play deep zone or Bradham play zone middle.

Extra focus will be put on Julio. Talib will play him in press coverage and play under him after, when Marcus Williams will play over him. That strong double team should be able to limit him.

Our DL rotation will be heavy as always. Ingram will play 80% of the snaps facing Havenstein, Zettel 65% Barnett 30% and JPP 25%. If JPP is out, Zettel and Barnett snap count will increase. McCoy starts if he can play and him and Geno will play 75% of the snaps, with Harris playing 35% and McGee 15%, both on running downs mainly. If McCoy is out, Geno will play close to 100% of the snaps, except if Cuba goes run heavy, then it will be closer to 80%. Harris would play 75% of the snaps and McGee the rest.

In heavier sets, we will just put Hitchens at SLB and keep Church alignment in the box, which should help us limit the impact of their running game.

[Xmad]

I think cuba is able to do enough to keep up with Seoul for most of the game, but Seoul has one of the few o-lines capable of protecting their QB against a fierce o-line. Even a banged up Seoul defense should be able to shut down a medicore group of pass catchers that cuba features and limit their running game. 

Kirk Cousins is playing very well and should be enough to keep Seoul in this for most of the game but there's only so much he can do with a limited running game and medicore WR corps against a fierce Seoul defense.

28-24 Seoul 

[SirA1]

the game plans are pretty balanced. I just don't trust Matt Ryan this year to get there when he needs it.

Cuba in the upset. 28-21

[pheltzbahr]

Commendable effort from Cuba, but Seoul is the most complete team here and get to the Bizz Bowl

[DingoLadd]

Seoul is probably the most complete team left out of the final 4 and I think they're more than good enough to beat Cuba, But I do not trust Matt Ryan enough to pull out the win though he does have a fantastic game he falls apart in the 4th Q and Cuba wins on an INT at the goaline.

[Scoundrel]

I know a lot of people are ragging on Matt Ryan but I think Seoul pulls this one out still. 

[Whicker]

Very very tough game to decide. I think Seoul has the biggest advantage with pass defenders matching up well against Cuba with bracket coverage on Julio. I also think Seoul's offensive line is good enough to survive the Cuba pass rush. Seoul wins but it was very close.

[bcb1213]

This is really tough.  Neither teams starting RB have looked good Both lines are about equal with Cuba having the edge at t while Seoul has the much better interior o line. Cousins has looked better than Ryan this year but the Seoul weapons are much better.  For me it comes down to the secondary where I think Seoul has a decided advantage 

[TedLavie]

Polls should have ended by now. GG @MD4L. My semi opponent last year will play in the BB this year, I wish you the same.

Only 9 votes for a BDL semifinal is disgraceful. I know it's Christmas and some of you may be on holidays, but at least @Ragnarok was active in mafia and @WFLukic and @Hockey5djhvoted/posted on the other semifinal

[Hockey5djh]

The Seoul take this one. Frank Gore isn't the workhorse that he's being made out to be. yes he ran the ball 37 times last week because it was in the snow and nobody could throw the ball. Even with that he only managed 3.6 YPC. With Bracket coverage on Julio and a blitz coming 40% of the time I don't think Cuba scores too much in this game. While I'm not a Matty Ice fan I think that the Seoul OL gives him enough time to get the ball to Kelce-Green-Hilton, especially working off of a heavy run rotation keeping Cuba the Cuba first step at bay.

[Hockey5djh]

1 minute ago, TedLavie said:

@Hockey5djhvoted/posted on the other semifinal

Sorry, First day back at work was a little hectic. I was literally voting and posting as you were.

[MD4L]

1 hour ago, TedLavie said:

Polls should have ended by now. GG @MD4L. My semi opponent last year will play in the BB this year, I wish you the same.

Only 9 votes for a BDL semifinal is disgraceful. I know it's Christmas and some of you may be on holidays, but at least @Ragnarok was active in mafia and @WFLukic and @Hockey5djhvoted/posted on the other semifinal

Good game Ted. Best of luck the rest of the way.