With the 5th pick in the NFL draft the Broncos select....

[AnAngryAmerican]

29 minutes ago, germ-x said:

Don’t forget, I like Allen as well.  I also saw him vs Air Force, I live in the Springs.

Further confirmation that seeing the guy play in person helps. What's helped convince me more about Allen are his intangibles and the fact that he has made major strides in the last four months, showing he responds to coaching well and is willing to put in the work. I would love him on the Broncos. 

[Cutler06]

With the quality of QB's the Browns have selected over the years, what does that say about Mayfield being considered at #1 ???

[broncos67]

3 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Further confirmation that seeing the guy play in person helps. What's helped convince me more about Allen are his intangibles and the fact that he has made major strides in the last four months, showing he responds to coaching well and is willing to put in the work. I would love him on the Broncos. 

I don't really agree that seeing someone live suddenly makes them a better pick lol. There's certain things to like about Josh Allen, but intangibles are things that get brought up when there are glaringly obvious issues with a guys game.

Allen has poor footwork. His accuracy sucks, and his anticipation is semi-poor so he relies too much on his arm strength to compensate. That works in college, it won't work in the pros. He can certainly throw a great deep ball, and frankly his arm strength is good enough that he can make throws at all levels of the field, but he's not a clean prospect by any means. He's the same big, prototypical, raw QB we keep drafting and seeing fail miserably.

[3Amigos_FOREVER]

46 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

He needs significant development which I'm not sure we can provide, for one, and secondarily, he's sloppy with footwork, his anticipation isn't great, completion percentage stinks. Physically, he's exactly what you'd want, but I think he's got a lot of kinks to work out and isn't a better prospect than other QBs or non-QBs. It would be, by far, the most disappointing pick for me at 5.

The reality is, with the exception of Rosen, the rest of the big 4 have this issue.  The rest have a knack for waiting until their WRs are open.  That, coupled with his ability to fit the ball into tight windows, make Rosen the best QB prospect.  The injury concerns are valid, but those notwithstanding and assuming a healthy career, he will be the best of the bunch.  Book it.  

Often, there's talk about "system" quarterbacks, and whether or not they will succeed if they go to a certain one or even a certain team.  The reality is, that's probably true for most QBs.  However, I feel like Rosen will likely succeed no matter where he ends up, and I simply can't say that about the other QBs.  

[BaldyBronco]

38 minutes ago, BroncoSojia said:

I have a feeling that we're going to trade up to two for Darnold if Mayfield goes number 1.

Would love this move

[Broncofan]

2 minutes ago, Cutler06 said:

With the quality of QB's the Browns have selected over the years, what does that say about Mayfield being considered at #1 ???

If Sashi Brown was still in charge, I'd feel better about it. He built the team's cap space and draft pick capital specifically for this purpose - and saved Haslem / Hue from paying 2.1 for a guy no other NFL team was willing to commit to as their starter, or even more than a backup QB deal (2 year 10M).     Scott McGlohan loves him, though, so there's that.  That and @Counselor in his corner give him some hope lol. 

[Broncofan]

7 minutes ago, 3Amigos_FOREVER said:

The reality is, with the exception of Rosen, the rest of the big 4 have this issue.  The rest have a knack for waiting until their WRs are open.  That, coupled with his ability to fit the ball into tight windows, make Rosen the best QB prospect.  The injury concerns are valid, but those notwithstanding and assuming a healthy career, he will be the best of the bunch.  Book it.  

Often, there's talk about "system" quarterbacks, and whether or not they will succeed if they go to a certain one or even a certain team.  The reality is, that's probably true for most QBs.  However, I feel like Rosen will likely succeed no matter where he ends up, and I simply can't say that about the other QBs.  

First off, welcome.

Second, while it's true that all the QB's have flaws, there are 4 things in Darnold's favor that IMO put him head and shoulders above the others:

1.  His elite production at a really young age.   That's such a consistent marker for NFL success.   Not a 1-year wonder. 

2.  His best skills are anticipation, timing, ball placement and ability to throw guys open.  Again, great predictors of NFL success.

3.  He's still only 20 years old.   Just a baby.   That's huuuuge.

4.  His mechanical flaws are the most fixable out of any you can find - he needs to hold the ball high with dropback, and keep 2 hands on the ball when running.  That alone eliminates most of the fumble problems, and it's very teachable.   The footwork is his other problem - but unlike Allen's mechanical issues, Darnold's have not prevented him from showing great placement and accuracy.   It's one thing to need a tweak to shorten your release time - it's another to overhaul it to improve accuracy problems.

Allen, Darnold & Rosen all have great work ethic, so that's not a plus or minus.   I'm a believer in Rosen & Darnold as the 2 guys I'd have drafted at 1.5 without hestitation, because their strengths and early success predict NFL success the most.   I recognize Rosen has injury risk, but in today's NFL, it's mitigated by him being a pocket passer.  I totally believe it's a mistake to have him off our board, unless there's a bigger medical risk we're not hearing about.  Darnold's size, mobility and lack of injury history just make him so much safer than Rosen, and a higher ceiling.  He should be the 1st QB off the board, nobrainer.

So if we only need to spend a 3rd to get him, I do it.   No questions asked.  Now, the kicker - taking him does NOT help us win 2018 games.  Rookie QB's seldom do.  But this is a top 3-5 ceiling, franchise-level QB with a safe league-average floor, and the age/ceiling to be our QB for 10+ years easy, and in a best-case scenario, 15+.   That's not an opportunity you pass on...if it costs us a 3rd.  

[BaldyBronco]

25 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

 

I don't think we'll trade up to 1.2 for 2 strong reasons, different team-related, and a 3rd I'm less confident on:

1.  NYG is only going away from QB because they think Barkley is the missing piece to return Eli to his pre-2016 form.  It's dumb, as I think it's age/decline related, and not a lack of RB/OL talent (although it didn't help lol).   But they aren't going to want to move behind CLE if they are locked into Barkley.  If they were fine with either Barkley/Chubb, I could see 1.5 being of interest, but not if they want Barkley - which is the report all over their usual beat reporter sources.

2.  We would not give up a 2019 1st to move up for QB.   We're getting enough heat for taking QB, no way we spend a possible top-10 pick in addition to 1.5.  

3.  GM Gettleman doesn't trade back.   He's traded up, but not down.  Now, he didn't rule it out, but that speaks to #1 being part of his draft philosophy (getting 1 guy at 1.2 he wants).

I could absolutely see a trade up to 1.4 with CLE, because that would cost so little to get a much safer-floor and similar-ceiling QB.      Now, if NYG is OK with Chubb and losing Barkley, then maybe 1.2 trade could happen - but then NYG would have to be willing to not take a 2019 1st, because Elway won't give that away.  Given Gettleman's history of not trading down and their love for Barkley, I don't see it.

We should absolutely give up #1 next year to get the QBOF.  This has been a theme I have theorized all along.  IF you read back on some of my commentary, I have said.  If Darnold is the guy.  You get him no matter the cost and that sitting at 5 is folly.

If we do go to two.  You will see something like this on Sunday.  John Elway standing at the podium with Martines Rankin, Sam Darnold and Rashaad Penny and MAYBE Michael Gallup.  Would that be ok with everyone?  And we would need to be players in FA in 2019, cause it would make for a boring year for us next April.

 

[BaldyBronco]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

First off, welcome.

Second, while it's true that all the QB's have flaws, there are 4 things in Darnold's favor that IMO put him head and shoulders above the others:

1.  His elite production at a really young age.   That's such a consistent marker for NFL success.   Not a 1-year wonder. 

2.  His best skills are anticipation, timing, ball placement and ability to throw guys open.  Again, great predictors of NFL success.

3.  He's still only 20 years old.   Just a baby.   That's huuuuge.

4.  His mechanical flaws are the most fixable out of any you can find - he needs to hold the ball high with dropback, and keep 2 hands on the ball when running.  That alone eliminates most of the fumble problems, and it's very teachable.   The footwork is his other problem - but unlike Allen's mechanical issues, Darnold's have not prevented him from showing great placement and accuracy.   It's one thing to need a tweak to shorten your release time - it's another to overhaul it to improve accuracy problems.

Allen, Darnold & Rosen all have great work ethic, so that's not a plus or minus.   I'm a believer in Rosen & Darnold as the 2 guys I'd have drafted at 1.5 without hestitation, because their strengths and early success predict NFL success the most.   I recognize Rosen has injury risk, but in today's NFL, it's mitigated by him being a pocket passer.  I totally believe it's a mistake to have him off our board, unless there's a bigger medical risk we're not hearing about.  Darnold's size, mobility and lack of injury history just make him so much safer than Rosen, and a higher ceiling.  He should be the 1st QB off the board, nobrainer.

So if we only need to spend a 3rd to get him, I do it.   No questions asked.  Now, the kicker - taking him does NOT help us win 2018 games.  Rookie QB's seldom do.  But this is a top 3-5 ceiling, franchise-level QB with a safe league-average floor, and the age/ceiling to be our QB for 10+ years easy, and in a best-case scenario, 15+.   That's not an opportunity you pass on...if it costs us a 3rd.  

It will cost us a first in 2019.  No doubt.  Plus something else likely. 

[Broncofan]

Just now, BaldyBronco said:

We should absolutely give up #1 next year to get the QBOF.  This has been a theme I have theorized all along.  IF you read back on some of my commentary, I have said.  If Darnold is the guy.  You get him no matter the cost and that sitting at 5 is folly.

If we do go to two.  You will see something like this on Sunday.  John Elway standing at the podium with Martines Rankin, Sam Darnold and Rashaad Penny and MAYBE Michael Gallup.  Would that be ok with everyone?  And we would need to be players in FA in 2019, cause it would make for a boring year for us next April.

 

We don't have to agree, but even if we did - I don't see NYG moving down to 1.5.  They are so locked into Barkley, it's nuts.   Going to 1.5 puts that in jeopardy.  Add in the fact that Gettleman has never traded down (while he's traded up several times), I don't see it on their end.  So I think we're in a moot conversation regardless.

[Broncofan]

10 minutes ago, BaldyBronco said:

It will cost us a first in 2019.  No doubt.  Plus something else likely. 

Not if we are trading with CLE because they want to keep Chubb.   3.99 is book value, a trade of 1 spot is more likely to require a Trubisky like haul even if we are overpaying.   2018 3rd (3.99 even) and a 2019 4th would be that overpay.   

You are only considering a 1.5 to 1.2 trade - I don't think it's happening, even if we don't agree on Elway's thinking, the NYG markers all say they won't move back to 1.5 (or at all).  If that's in play, sure, book value says we have to pay a 2019 1st...but it takes 2 to dance here, and everything says Gmen are locked in at staying at 1.2.

[BaldyBronco]

Just now, Broncofan said:

We don't have to agree, but even if we did - I don't see NYG moving down to 1.5.  They are so locked into Barkley, it's nuts.   Going to 1.5 puts that in jeopardy.  Add in the fact that Gettleman has never traded down (while he's traded up several times), I don't see it on their end.  So I think we're in a moot conversation regardless.

For sure on agreeing.  All this is is pie in the sky speculation, and just something to keep us busy..  We will probably pick at 5, but in 8 hours we can't dram anymore...So this is it.

I do believe Gettleman gets Barkley at 2, which keeps 5 in play though.  Its crazy how well the lying season hasd unfolded, bcause there really are 2o scenarios that may play out.  Don't remember a draft like this in a LONG time. 

[BaldyBronco]

2 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Not if we are trading with CLE because they want to keep Chubb.   3.99 is book value, a trade of 1 spot is more likely to require a Trubisky like haul even if we are overpaying.   2018 3rd (3.99 even) and a 2019 4th.   

You are only considering a 1.5 to 1.2 trade - I don't think it's happening, even if we don't agree on Elway's thinking, the NYG markers all say they won't move back to 1.5 (or at all).  If that's in play, sure, book value says we have to pay a 2019 1st...but it takes 2 to dance here, and everything says Gmen are locked in at staying at 1.2.

I am only considering the cost to get to 2 to get Darnold.  a 3.70 to get to 1.4 if Darnold is there would be a no brainer.  The big question is Rosen.  It sounds like he is not on our list, but what if Elway is smoke screening on that too?  It is not completely out of the picture.

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, BaldyBronco said:

For sure on agreeing.  All this is is pie in the sky speculation, and just something to keep us busy..  We will probably pick at 5, but in 8 hours we can't dram anymore...So this is it.

I do believe Gettleman gets Barkley at 2, which keeps 5 in play though.  Its crazy how well the lying season hasd unfolded, bcause there really are 2o scenarios that may play out.  Don't remember a draft like this in a LONG time. 

I think we've seen enough to believe Mayfield-Barkley is happening.  If not, great job on both orgs for sending out airtight, leak-proof statements that everyone is buying.

It all comes down to 2 things then:

1.  Do the Jets take Rosen instead?   Bob McGinn thinks so, which is notable, he's the most plugged in of all mockers.  Still, can't be sure, they might be sending smoke because they can't believe their good luck with Darnold.  

2.  Do the Browns want to keep Chubb?  If they are locked into Chubb, then DEN-CLE swap for 1 spot is in play at a very reasonable price.   If CLE isn't tied to Chubb, or wants a T or CB more, we're out of luck.   Guys will pay way more, and for 1 spot, Elway will only go so far.

But yeah, CRAZIEST draft in a while.  We've not had 4 QB's be this polarizing, because they all have different strengths/weaknesses, and then so many QB needy teams who have draft ammo.   

RE: Rosen as a smokescreen, that would be awesome, because then we know we are getting a franchise QB IMO.    But can't bank on that yet.   I'd love that though as plan B if Darnold didn't go.  Again, though, we'd probably still have to deal with CLE for a pick swap, because BUF would surely be interested in moving up for Rosen as much as Darnold to 1.4.

[anewdawn]

53 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

I wouldn't be surprised, but I don't know that it's all that likely. If we give away the farm and then don't start Darnold that would be mind-numbingly stupid though. I don't really know that Denver can afford to give away draft capital and have a team that's competitive the next few years. They are way too skewed towards FA signings.

That said, I like Darnold quite a bit. He's going to be a good one.

re the bold - our draft capital is useless under Elway!  I'm all for paying to get someone solid - but I'm not sure I see solid the same as Elway - I like Rosen, Darnold, Saquon and CHUBB if non QB.  And yeah I get Elway doesnt seem to like Rosen but look at his record on QB's - complete garb...........