Random Packer News & Notes

[pf9]

I firmly believe that if the NFL had stripped playoff seeding priority from division winners starting in 2011 (as a response to the Seahawks getting a home playoff game in 2010 despite being 7-9, where they upset the defending champs Saints) we would have defended our Super Bowl 45 title.

Here's why. The Giants won the NFC East, but because they were 9-7, they had the worst record of all NFC playoff teams that season, yeah both wild card teams - Atlanta and Detroit - had better records than the Giants, both were 10-6.

The Giants thus would have been forced to open the playoffs against the Saints in the Superdome, where they had at the time last won in 1993 and had been on the wrong end of a 49-24 beatdown by the Saints on national TV. At the time, the Saints had not lost a home playoff game since 1992. This playoff game likely would have been a repeat of the regular season meeting.

Meanwhile, the Packers get the winner between Detroit and Atlanta from the Georgia Dome, either way we'd have faced a dome team in the divisional round, teams that usually fare poorly in cold weather. Our next opponent likewise would either be a dome team or a Sun Belt team with an outdoor stadium.

Given subsequent events this would have made Super Bowl 48 the only playoff game ever staged at MetLife Stadium.

Edited May 12, 2023 by pf9

[beekay414]

On 5/8/2023 at 3:45 PM, incognito_man said:

The next optimist in this thread will be the first one 

I'm probably 4 days late but I see that schedule and I think playoffs.

[Sandy]

1 hour ago, beekay414 said:

I'm probably 4 days late but I see that schedule and I think playoffs.

That doesn't make you an optimist though. Just makes you a realist. Or at minimum a good evaluator of NFL roster talent.

[Leader]

 

[packfanfb]

I know the guy has had some costly fumbles over the last few years, but I still maintain Aaron Jones will go down as maybe a top 5 underrated Packer of all time. Guy is a special talent and has been one of our best players for the last several years, aside from being one of the best "Packer people" I've ever met.

[CWood21]

13 hours ago, beekay414 said:

I'm probably 4 days late but I see that schedule and I think playoffs.

I don't see any reason why they couldn't.  I also could see them finishing last in the division.

[beekay414]

3 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I also could see them finishing last in the division.

Nah. That's reserved for ****cago.

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, beekay414 said:

Nah. That's reserved for ****cago.

I'd say it's unlikely, but in that alternate universe where Justin Fields looks like a legit QB and Jordan Love struggles.

[Refugee]

52 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

I know the guy has had some costly fumbles over the last few years, but I still maintain Aaron Jones will go down as maybe a top 5 underrated Packer of all time. Guy is a special talent and has been one of our best players for the last several years, aside from being one of the best "Packer people" I've ever met.

He’s been great and I expect him to continue to be great. It also doesn’t mean he’s not getting closer to the end of his shelf life and he’ll have to get those extra yards without a HOF QB taking much of the defense’s bandwidth. I’m excited to see what we’ve got but there were certain things AR added including keeping the safeties pretty clear of the RBs. 

[beekay414]

17 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I'd say it's unlikely, but in that alternate universe where Justin Fields looks like a legit QB and Jordan Love struggles.

Is that the same alternate universe where I'm married to Kate Upton?

[craig]

2 hours ago, Refugee said:

He’s been great and I expect him to continue to be great. It also doesn’t mean he’s not getting closer to the end of his shelf life and he’ll have to get those extra yards without a HOF QB taking much of the defense’s bandwidth. I’m excited to see what we’ve got but there were certain things AR added including keeping the safeties pretty clear of the RBs. 

The run-blocking hasn't been good the last couple of seasons, and I'm not sure I expect it to get lots better this year.  Other than Jenkins, I'm not sure who we've got on our line that is strong in run-blocking.  Fans often faulted Rodgers for checking out of plays; but I kinda think he checked out of a bunch of run-plays that were doomed to fail.  I have some fear that we may plow forward with a lot more doomed-to-fail run calls this season?   

Obviously that stat chart was relative to "expected" yards, so is already factoring in bad play-calls and bad blocking.  I'm just nervous that we'll attempt too many bad play-call runs behind bad run-blocking this year.  Hope I'm way off, that MLF's calls will be great; that the run-blockign will be good; and that Love will wisely recognize some situations to check out of some run calls.  

[R T]

17 minutes ago, craig said:

The run-blocking hasn't been good the last couple of seasons, and I'm not sure I expect it to get lots better this year.  Other than Jenkins, I'm not sure who we've got on our line that is strong in run-blocking.  Fans often faulted Rodgers for checking out of plays; but I kinda think he checked out of a bunch of run-plays that were doomed to fail.  I have some fear that we may plow forward with a lot more doomed-to-fail run calls this season?   

Obviously that stat chart was relative to "expected" yards, so is already factoring in bad play-calls and bad blocking.  I'm just nervous that we'll attempt too many bad play-call runs behind bad run-blocking this year.  Hope I'm way off, that MLF's calls will be great; that the run-blockign will be good; and that Love will wisely recognize some situations to check out of some run calls.  

I think you are selling this OL group way short here. This is from a link @incognito_man provided earlier today. 

Nijman had the highest run block win rate of all tackles last season according to ESPN.

[Refugee]

21 minutes ago, craig said:

The run-blocking hasn't been good the last couple of seasons, and I'm not sure I expect it to get lots better this year.  Other than Jenkins, I'm not sure who we've got on our line that is strong in run-blocking.  Fans often faulted Rodgers for checking out of plays; but I kinda think he checked out of a bunch of run-plays that were doomed to fail.  I have some fear that we may plow forward with a lot more doomed-to-fail run calls this season?   

Obviously that stat chart was relative to "expected" yards, so is already factoring in bad play-calls and bad blocking.  I'm just nervous that we'll attempt too many bad play-call runs behind bad run-blocking this year.  Hope I'm way off, that MLF's calls will be great; that the run-blockign will be good; and that Love will wisely recognize some situations to check out of some run calls.  

I wouldn’t say we’re a bad run blocking group, just has been a different emphasis which is understandable when your triggerman is a multiple MVP. Last season was a bit of an eval on coach Steno as an OC, this season is his final exam as far as I’m concerned. Very good OL coach but will he have the creativity to architect an offense for the modern NFL?  Easy to believe he was probably the 3rd guy in rank last year in that room. It’s his and LaFleur’s show now and I hope it’s a good one. At the moment it seems we lost a great OL coach and gained an average at best OC. I could be wrong. 

[squire12]

1 hour ago, craig said:

The run-blocking hasn't been good the last couple of seasons, and I'm not sure I expect it to get lots better this year.  Other than Jenkins, I'm not sure who we've got on our line that is strong in run-blocking.  Fans often faulted Rodgers for checking out of plays; but I kinda think he checked out of a bunch of run-plays that were doomed to fail.  I have some fear that we may plow forward with a lot more doomed-to-fail run calls this season?   

Obviously that stat chart was relative to "expected" yards, so is already factoring in bad play-calls and bad blocking.  I'm just nervous that we'll attempt too many bad play-call runs behind bad run-blocking this year.  Hope I'm way off, that MLF's calls will be great; that the run-blockign will be good; and that Love will wisely recognize some situations to check out of some run calls.  

Certainly will be potential for missed checks out of run plays that are " doomed to fail".

There is also a potential benefit of being able to build off of playcalls as the game progresses....which a higher volume of audibles limits that type of progression

[craig]

2 hours ago, R T said:

I think you are selling this OL group way short here. This is from a link @incognito_man provided earlier today. 

Nijman had the highest run block win rate of all tackles last season according to ESPN.

That is really interesting, thanks RT.  I certainly admit that I don't always recognize what's at fault when run plays fail.  

I admit my 2nd-round-draft-a-tackle had initially imagined Myers as the mongo-sized center being unusually good as a run-blocker.  What do the stats-things say about his run-blocking capacity?  

But RT, to argue it from a different side:  The stat listed by packfan 6 hours ago suggested Jones was top-3 in above-expected gain.  So, track my logic:

1. Elite runner with above-expect gains.
2. Packers were right around league-average in running efficiency.
3. If an elite runner with above-expected gains still gets you only to average, doesn't it follow that the "expected" gains were below average? 

In other words, if the run-blocking is good and the runner is almost elite, that shouldn't add up to average run-efficiency, it should result in above-average efficiency.  Some factor has to be below average if the factors only add up to a league-average running efficiency.