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GWT: Week 19 Titans @ Patriots


gopherwrestler

GWT: Week 19 Titans @ Patriots   

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  1. 1. Who Wins?



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Bit of Xs and Os for ya, from our perspective. Feel free to put this in the OP, if you want.

 

TEN linebackers and safeties have struggled against tight ends and running backs in the passing games. in DVOA, they are 24th against tight ends and dead last against running backs. The Titans roll out one inside linebacker that plays almost all of defensive snaps (Wesley Woodyard, 93% of snaps) and rotates their other two guys in Avery Williamson (60%) and Javon Brown (45%). These 3 aren't necessarily known for coverage (is this fair @TitanLegend ?) and Gronkowski, Lewis and Rex should all have favorable matchups. 

Rich Hill writes that we might expect a defense that’s similar in terms of scheme to the Steelers defense that we saw this year. Both of those defenses...

Play a primary 3-4, with a DE being their best front 7 player (Cam Heyward/Jurrell Casey)

Will play ~2/3rds of snaps in man coverage (Although Pitts changed this for us)

Will drop an OLB into coverage a lot more than expected (TJ Watt/Erik Walden)

Will have a designated deep safety on ~90% of the snaps (Mike Mitchell/Kevin Byard)

Don’t have a single player on their roster that can match up with Gronk in man coverage (no one does, tbf, apart from Berry...)

 

I think we may employ a similar gameplan to when we faced Denver. We used heavy set a lot (our FB played 64% of snaps, when usually he plays very little). The Patriots did not want to have to face Aqib Talib, Chris Harris Jr., and Bradley Roby at the same time and loved the matchups against the Broncos’ linebackers. With TEN linebackers not proving their worth covering RB and TEs, I think we may try and keep 3 linebackers on the field again. Vs Denver, we saw;

Brady targeting running backs or tight ends 19 times (53%). Wide receivers not named Brandin Cooks got six total targets

Brady, when targeting running backs or tight ends: 16/20 for 177 and three touchdowns; passer rating of 143.1

Bradley Roby played 41% of defensive snaps, his lowest mark of the season - showing that we kept it in tight

Or....we might completely spread TEN out and run motion, picks, slant/flats all over the show and try and confuse. But in our weather, I'm not so sure. 

 

I'll have a think about what we will do defensively, but I suspect it will be taking Henry away. Safety in the box, Cover 1/0 a lot. We won't have a great pass rush, as we play conservative against mobile QBs - "integrity". 

 

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3 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

The Titans roll out one inside linebacker that plays almost all of defensive snaps (Wesley Woodyard, 93% of snaps) and rotates their other two guys in Avery Williamson (60%) and Javon Brown (45%). These 3 aren't necessarily known for coverage (is this fair @TitanLegend ?) and Gronkowski, Lewis and Rex should all have favorable matchups. 

jayon brown is definitely more of a coverage LB, and we tend to sub him in for avery williamson in passing situations when possible, as williamson is terrible in coverage. brown has been pretty good for a rookie- not a guy who's a DROY contender by any means, but he's solid and has made some plays (with the expected rookie lapses).

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In the 2003-04 season the Titans (5th seed) faced off against the Patriots (1st seed) in New England in the Divisonal round of the playoffs. Tennessee came up just short of being in field goal range to tie the game after a dropped pass by Drew Bennett from legend Steve McNair. Tennessee lost that day 17-14.

Come 1/13/18 the Titans (5th seed) will face off against the Patriots (1st seed) in New England in the Divisional round of the playoffs. As each hour passes, it becomes more and more clear to the tranquil minded such as myself and the voters that picked the Titans to win, that Marcus Mariota will avenge that loss Tennessee suffered 14 years ago. Steve McNair will be there that day, as his warrior spirit fuses into the pure, serene, and worthy heart of Marcus Mariota, and come that day, January 13th, 2018, Tennessee will reign victorious, extinguishing the devils known as the New England Patriots that have cursed the NFL grid iron over the last two decades. 

mariotamcnair.png?w=600&h=310

1/13/18 - A Legend is Born

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15 minutes ago, Pats#1 said:

I think the Pats will win this by 10, but the game will be a lot more competitive than people think. I see a close game until a 4th qtr TD puts it out of reach for the Titans.

Interesting.  I see a 40 burger ROFLstomp and Brian Hoyer playing 12 minutes of the fourth quarter.

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On 2018-01-08 at 2:56 PM, Hunter2_1 said:

But you do expect him to change though, right? 

Lebeau is 1-0 vs brady when he changes his plan.  But I think he forgot the 2011 game because after that he went back to his normal ways. 

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5 minutes ago, 3rivers said:

Lebeau is 1-0 vs brady when he changes his plan.  But I think he forgot the 2011 game because after that he went back to his normal ways. 

Not exactly a large sample size since he's only gone up against Brady once since that game.

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Just now, Starless said:

Not exactly a large sample size since he's only gone up against Brady once since that game.

still, he didn't stay with what worked, for whatever reason. Can the titans play man/press and get decent pressure with 4 or 5 people? If not, I say this will be a major blowout unless the weather affects brady and the pats  passing game.

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16 hours ago, dtait93 said:

In the 2003-04 season the Titans (5th seed) faced off against the Patriots (1st seed) in New England in the Divisonal round of the playoffs. Tennessee came up just short of being in field goal range to tie the game after a dropped pass by Drew Bennett from legend Steve McNair. Tennessee lost that day 17-14.

Come 1/13/18 the Titans (5th seed) will face off against the Patriots (1st seed) in New England in the Divisional round of the playoffs. As each hour passes, it becomes more and more clear to the tranquil minded such as myself and the voters that picked the Titans to win, that Marcus Mariota will avenge that loss Tennessee suffered 14 years ago. Steve McNair will be there that day, as his warrior spirit fuses into the pure, serene, and worthy heart of Marcus Mariota, and come that day, January 13th, 2018, Tennessee will reign victorious, extinguishing the devils known as the New England Patriots that have cursed the NFL grid iron over the last two decades. 

mariotamcnair.png?w=600&h=310

1/13/18 - A Legend is Born

 Bit of a shame Mariota doesn't have anyone on the defense resembling Jevon Kearse.

And Eric Decker isn't exactly Derrick Mason.

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