Sam Darnold

[mistakey]

8 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

There's nothing wrong with Josh Rosen's personality that will prevent him from reaching his ceiling.

I would take him after Sam and Baker because:

1. Concussions. It's scary to think his career could be over with the next concussion he gets. He's very good, but this scares me the most right now.

2. I don't think he really wants to play here despite what he said. I don't think most QB's would to be honest, but it seems like Darnold is embracing going #1 more than Josh is.

If you watch tape of the QB's and don't contextualize any of it with injury history/wanting to play for us, Rosen looks the best. Mechanically he's perfect. He's accurate as hell and his ball placement always allows for RAC yards. He's extremely refined and won't need a ton of professional coaching to get him up to speed. While Sam, Baker, and Allen will have to spend time working on mechanics, they will also have to spend time working on their understanding of NFL defenses. Rosen can focus all of his attention on learning the O playbook and studying defenses.

 

That being said, Darnold combines the most upside with the safest floor. Plus he's got a great attitude and doesn't have the injury concerns of Rosen, the size concerns of Baker, or the accuracy concerns of Allen. Darnold is the selection I make, but I'd honestly be ok with any of the 4. I just have Darnold as QB1 in a line of pretty darn good ones.

Baker also had 2 concussions in a very short span of time 

[FGK]

On 4/7/2018 at 11:59 AM, MistaBohmbastic said:

I totally get your points here. You could make the case that, of all the QB prospects, Darnold is the safest pick. He's certainly not the most NFL ready, but you look at durability, natural talents (reading progressions, arm skills, mobility, pocket presence, etc), and potential for growth, it should not be out of the realm of possibility that he could very well end up becoming one of the all time greats.

Rosen's injury history, and Baker's - to a lesser extent, but when getting creamed by an NFL pass rush from time to time, it could easily recur - have to be taken into consideration.

There's no denying that both Mayfield and Rosen have their advantages over Darnold, but there's also no certainty that Sam cannot pass the others up in these categories, either. If there's anyone who could, it is Darnold.

Still, one question lingers, why in the hell does Allen still get taken at 1 in so many mocks? How are we in this forum so much more enlightened on the topic than so many members of the media? It's lunacy, IMO

Yeah, like I've said before, my reason for havng Darnold #3 is that I put a lot more weight on where a guy IS than on where I hope, or even think, he will end up. At least at QB. So while I totally agree that Darnold COULD easily end up being the best of the three, the fact that that projection puts a lot of weight on development in areas where he actually got WORSE year one to year two does worry me some. I like the kid, I THINK he will get better. But the fact that I think he needs at least another year of development to get to where Rosen and Mayfield are right now (all IMO), and that there's no guarantee that they don't get better as well, puts him slightly behind the two of them in my view. As I've said, I really think it's just a question of taste at this point.

And yes, on this point, we are all smarter than Mel Kiper on QB evaluation. I think it's becoming clear that he is slipping in a lot of ways, either that or just trying to remain relevant with hot takes in an era where a lot of the younger guys (JuMosq, Norris, the PFF crew, etc.) just have access to more knowledge and data than he can wrap his head around. Like, JuMosq's (got his start as an FF poster btw) athletic thresholds for elite players in the trenches are freaking money, something like an 80% or more hit rate on guys who hit his athleticism/production thresholds. 

[Kiwibrown]

4 hours ago, freakygeniuskid said:

Yeah, like I've said before, my reason for havng Darnold #3 is that I put a lot more weight on where a guy IS than on where I hope, or even think, he will end up. At least at QB. So while I totally agree that Darnold COULD easily end up being the best of the three, the fact that that projection puts a lot of weight on development in areas where he actually got WORSE year one to year two does worry me some. I like the kid, I THINK he will get better. But the fact that I think he needs at least another year of development to get to where Rosen and Mayfield are right now (all IMO), and that there's no guarantee that they don't get better as well, puts him slightly behind the two of them in my view. As I've said, I really think it's just a question of taste at this point.

And yes, on this point, we are all smarter than Mel Kiper on QB evaluation. I think it's becoming clear that he is slipping in a lot of ways, either that or just trying to remain relevant with hot takes in an era where a lot of the younger guys (JuMosq, Norris, the PFF crew, etc.) just have access to more knowledge and data than he can wrap his head around. Like, JuMosq's (got his start as an FF poster btw) athletic thresholds for elite players in the trenches are freaking money, something like an 80% or more hit rate on guys who hit his athleticism/production thresholds. 

that is really interesting about how revealing the right analytics are about D linemen. I have been thinking about athleticism a lot recently. though not a DL one of our most athletic player on the team is Ricardo Louis. fast 4.43, tall 6'2", 38 inch vertical, good bench, he is better on paper than OBJ. none of it translates to the field. its not that he can't catch, it is that he can't play football well,  he isn't fast, I don't think i have seen jump or stretch out for the ball. 
this year I am realizing that scuting and drafting is extremely complicated. 

It is the sum of a 100 parts that no one scores 100. Everyone has a red flag, or red flags. Some are fatal and some are negligible and it sure is a tough job to work out what is what. 

[Aztec Hammer]

- Completion %: Darnold 65%, Rosen 61%.
- YPA: Darnold 8.55, Rosen 8.3. 
- Passer rating: Darnold 155, Rosen 143.
- Adjusted QBR: Darnold 81, Rosen 63.

Same conference. Same opposition. Both with miserable o-lines except UCLA will have two drafted OL with one in the first round whilst USC will have zero drafted at all. Both with miserable receivers except UCLA will have Jordan Lasley drafted at some point and USC will have nobody drafted. USC has a good running back and UCLA doesn’t. UCLA with a HC that has NFL experience and an OC that has just been hired to assist Sean McVay. USC with a HC that believes in the power of prayer to help the team.

And Rosen is the better passer?

 

[MistaBohmbastic]

3 hours ago, Aztec Hammer said:

- Completion %: Darnold 65%, Rosen 61%.
- YPA: Darnold 8.55, Rosen 8.3. 
- Passer rating: Darnold 155, Rosen 143.
- Adjusted QBR: Darnold 81, Rosen 63.

Same conference. Same opposition. Both with miserable o-lines except UCLA will have two drafted OL with one in the first round whilst USC will have zero drafted at all. Both with miserable receivers except UCLA will have Jordan Lasley drafted at some point and USC will have nobody drafted. USC has a good running back and UCLA doesn’t. UCLA with a HC that has NFL experience and an OC that has just been hired to assist Sean McVay. USC with a HC that believes in the power of prayer to help the team.

And Rosen is the better passer?

 

Those stats aren't really fair if we're being honest. They generalize their season performances. Check these out:

Deep Ball (20 yds or more)

Darnold                                    Rosen

766 yards                                  621 yards

10 TDs (1)                                    8 TDs (2)

4 Dropped Passes                     1 Dropped Pass

4 INTs                                         2 INTs

20.2% of Attempts                    11.8% of Attempts

37.2% Completion                    40% Completion

Under Pressure

Darnold                                    Rosen

107 Dropbacks UP                     126 Dropbacks UP

642 yards                                    700 yards

6 TDs                                           3 TDs

5 INTs                                          2 INTs

59.2 Completion %                     67.1 Completion % (1)

25.2 Pressure %                          30.7 Pressure %

16.8 Sack %                                  15.1 Sack %

No Pressure

Darnold                                     Rosen

2,556 yards                               2,432 yards

18 TDs                                        18 TDs

6 INTs                                         7 INTs

74.8 % w/ NP (1)                        69.3 % w/ NP

67 Completion %                      66.9 Completion %

15 Drops                                     21 Drops

 

These are from PFF. Whether you agree with their rankings is irrelevant because these are objective. Under pressure I think we can see a clear advantage to Rosen, AND he dealt with more consistent pressure from the opposition. While with no pressure, his targets dropped significantly more passes, yet the completion percentages are close to even. The stats are still close, but when you watch the film, I think it's clear that Rosen is the more concise passer, though Darnold could eventually become just as good.

Another stat of note from PFF, Darnold was exceptional when throwing within 2.5 seconds of the snap. When he takes more time than that, his completion percentage drops drastically, below 50%, while Rosen's numbers are much more consistent. 

Just something to consider. Darnold is still my #1, but if we're debating who the better passer is at this very moment, there's no question it's Rosen.

[Aztec Hammer]

I don't think much of PFF, but appreciate the stats. They are interesting, for sure. For example, the idea that Rosen when given protection and not pressured is a prototype. Darnold's stats beat his in that regard. Which even surprises me a little bit, to be honest. I'm also interested to see how the stats changed over time, given Darnold's interception numbers primarily occurred early on. I think from October, he went 17TDs and 5INTs the rest of the way. Compared to the 9TD/8INTs he started the season off with. This suggests a big improvement.

I am certainly not trying to cover up his relatively bad five game stretch to start the season (they went 4-1) but I think it is certainly worth taking into consideration when looking at the idea of Darnold's ability to improve and the feeling that he regressed from 2016 to 2017.

I like both guys, they are comfortably my 1st and 2nd ranked QBs this year.

[Aztec Hammer]

PFF stats also have the ability to be very misleading in my opinion. Take the Rosen deep ball numbers for example. Off the top of my head I can remember very clearly two deep balls that had hugely positive outcomes for him but absolutely were terrible decisions/throws. In the A&M comeback, that deep ball he threw late and over the middle, should have been picked off no problem yet went right through the guys hands and resulted in a TD. A deep throw against USC, similar thing. Hit the DB square in the hands, he bobbled it up for Lasley to make the catch.

PFF isn't taking into account that those should have been two easy interceptions and instead were a TD and a huge gain. Look how that would change Rosen's deep ball numbers. He'd go from 8TD/2INT to 7TD/4INT. Now compare that to Darnold who has 10TD/4INT. See what I mean?

I'm sure you could find these instances in Darnold or any other QBs play too. But it would only further prove my point.

[candyman93]

3 hours ago, Aztec Hammer said:

- Completion %: Darnold 65%, Rosen 61%.
- YPA: Darnold 8.55, Rosen 8.3. 
- Passer rating: Darnold 155, Rosen 143.
- Adjusted QBR: Darnold 81, Rosen 63.

Same conference. Same opposition. Both with miserable o-lines except UCLA will have two drafted OL with one in the first round whilst USC will have zero drafted at all. Both with miserable receivers except UCLA will have Jordan Lasley drafted at some point and USC will have nobody drafted. USC has a good running back and UCLA doesn’t. UCLA with a HC that has NFL experience and an OC that has just been hired to assist Sean McVay. USC with a HC that believes in the power of prayer to help the team.

And Rosen is the better passer?

 

Ehhhhh

 

Mora is absolute garbage.

 

Also, what are their fumble totals?

[Aztec Hammer]

2 minutes ago, candyman93 said:

Ehhhhh

 

Mora is absolute garbage.

 

Also, what are their fumble totals?

I made a post on this before. Let me find the numbers. Not great for either. Worse for Darnold.

Rosen : 26INT and 20fumbles in 29 starts. 0.90 picks per game. 0.69fumbles  per game. 

Darnold : 22INT and 20fumbles in 24 starts. 0.92 picks per game. 0.83fumbles  per game. 

Allen : 21INT and 13fumbles in 25 starts. 0.84 picks per game. 0.52fumbles  per game.

[MWil23]

1 minute ago, candyman93 said:

Ehhhhh

 

Mora is absolute garbage.

 

Also, what are their fumble totals?

Rosen has 20 Fumbles

Darnold has 20 Fumbles

Rosen in 30 games

Darnold in 24 games

To me, the craziest stat is that Darnold was sacked 29 times this past year and only 6 last year. WOW was their OL bad.

[Aztec Hammer]

9 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Rosen has 20 Fumbles

Darnold has 20 Fumbles

Rosen in 30 games

Darnold in 24 games

To me, the craziest stat is that Darnold was sacked 29 times this past year and only 6 last year. WOW was their OL bad.

Can't name one dude on that OL this year. It was stupid bad. If you look at Darnold's splits, it shows. The first five games he was suffering from a combination of Heisman hype and a complete lack of confidence in this offensive line. 9TD and 8INT. Got them to a 4-1 start but it wasn't pretty (outside of the Stanford game). Bad game to start in a win against Western Michigan, an overtime struggle vs Texas and culminating in a tough road loss late at Wash St.

Once he got ahold of it and figured out how to play with this line and surrounding cast (nobody of note at all outside of RoJo), he went from October until the end of the season putting up 17TD and 5INTs. A completely different stat line.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

1 minute ago, Aztec Hammer said:

Can't name one dude on that OL this year. It was stupid bad. If you look at Darnold's splits, it shows. The first five games he was suffering from a combination of Heisman hype and a complete lack of confidence in this offensive line. 9TD and 8INT. Got them to a 4-1 start but it wasn't pretty (outside of the Stanford game). Bad game to start in a win against Western Michigan, an overtime struggle vs Texas and culminating in a tough road loss late at Wash St.

Once he got ahold of it and figured out how to play with this line and surrounding cast (nobody of note at all outside of RoJo), he went from October until the end of the season putting up 17TD and 5INTs. A completely different stat line.

Yeah it’s easy to look at the raw numbers and be less than impressed, especially since it looks as though he regressed, but that simply wasn’t the case. Once he got settled in this past season he hit his groove and played at a high level.

Amongst the top 3 guys, Darnold had by far the least help/talent around him too.

[brownie man]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AO6BZthZpV0

 

Most interesting idea I've heard yet

Patriots trade their first 4 picks and their 2019 first to move up to 1

we still pick our QB at 4 and NE gets to jump the Giants to get Darnold

Giving us a draft of 

4.

23.

31.

33. 

35.

43.

63. 

64. 

plus a 2019 first even though itd be late

alot of people through out this idea of waiting to get your QB at 4 because one of them has to be there and go Barkley at 1. This is a similar idea but instead we get a **** ton of picks instead of Barkley

this would make me like Josh Allen, Rosen or Mayfield alot more 

no way NE would do it but it would be interesting

[Aztec Hammer]

10 minutes ago, brownie man said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AO6BZthZpV0

 

Most interesting idea I've heard yet

Patriots trade their first 4 picks and their 2019 first to move up to 1

we still pick our QB at 4 and NE gets to jump the Giants to get Darnold

Giving us a draft of 

4.

23.

31.

33. 

35.

43.

63. 

64. 

plus a 2019 first even though itd be late

alot of people through out this idea of waiting to get your QB at 4 because one of them has to be there and go Barkley at 1. This is a similar idea but instead we get a **** ton of picks instead of Barkley

this would make me like Josh Allen, Rosen or Mayfield alot more 

no way NE would do it but it would be interesting

It’s so stupid. We don’t get to pick our QB at 4. We just get a QB.

Imagine this was the other way around. And it was the Browns trying to trade up four picks to get to the #1 that the Patriots had.

Everyone would be laughing at us and our arrogance that we could just get to the first overall pick and the choice of the first QB, just like that.

Just take the QB #1 man. Stop playing games.

[Aztec Hammer]

I swear Browns fans have a case of the Stockholm Syndrome and our kidnapper is the Trade Down.