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CWood21

CW21's 2018 NFL Draft Review (Buccaneers/Patriots Up)

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11 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Not sure yet, it's going to be up there.  Paying up a 2nd 2019 does factor in (and Green Bay, for example, getting a 2019 1st will too).

Very much this.  The addition of the '19 2nd is factored in fwiw.

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10 minutes ago, bucsfan333 said:

Totally a word.

I'm going to keep using it until Webster acknowledges it...

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Admittedly, my rankings are arbitrary and no real set grades.  More how I feel about the prospects themselves and the value that I felt each teams received.  I don't hand out A+ grades, and I sure as hell don't hand out any F grades.  But for reference, a B+ grade is a very strong grade.  If they would have done better on Day 3, they probably would have jumped into that A- territory.

Yeah, figured it was something like that.   Feel is always a good way to go.   Sometimes teams that are done first can be graded too high/low once the full landscape begins to reveal itself.   But it gives you a good initial range, and I agree B+ is normally a strong grade unless you have a dove doing the evaluations (hawk being the tough graders).   Agree 100 percent Day 3 prevents a higher grade, IMO we had that happen to our draft after Rd 4 for sure.

Edited by Broncofan

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1 hour ago, jfinley88 said:

you see this guy @The LBC

I can't look at that non-word; it makes my eyes burn.

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1 hour ago, The LBC said:

I can't look at that non-word; it makes my eyes burn.

Perfectly cromulent word from what I can tell. 

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Your assessment of the Steelers draft is pretty spot on.

I like Rudolph more than you do, but your assessment of him was accurate.

The guy you have as best value (Samuels) doesnt even have a true position.

Bottom line....we are in win now mode and this team did nothing in the draft to support that.

D+ is what I would give it on it best day.    I wouldnt have argued you giving it an F, especially since you provided quality reasoning for doing so.

Nice work, CW.  

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3 hours ago, kyle21121 said:

Perfectly cromulent word from what I can tell. 

Damn you for beating me to it.

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So really my only beef, is your beef with the trade, which I think is falacious reasoning.  You use the trade for Trubisky last year as part of your reasoning for not liking the trade this year.  Last year the Bears gave up 2 3rds and 2 4ths to move up to get their franchise qb.  If you get the pick right, there is no price too high to get your franchise qb.  If you get it wrong then the cost doesnt matter.  The signs are pointing to the Bears having got that one very right.  Pace also recouped all of those picks except the 3rd this year, by manipulating the board, while still getting Tarik Cohen and Eddie Jackson.  This years trade was a much different issue.  Future picks are valued 1 round down.  The Bears didnt have a 3rd round pick but had 2 4ths.  They essentially traded 1 4th for the right to use next years 2nd this year for a player they had ranked very high who gives them ANOTHER weapon who can come in in this first year od the new offense and learn it with everybody else. I (and I imagine the Bears themselves) dont expect the Bears to contend for the SuperBowl this year.  Where I think you are wrong is your assessment that they will be picking top 10 again next year.  I think they are more likely to be picking bottom 10 than top 10 next year so i dont see that issue. But what this is really about is 2019 when I (and I expect the Bears) do think the Bears will be contending.  It makes a lot more sense to get Miller in learning how to be a pro and the offense with everybody else and ready to hit the ground running in 2019.

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Posted (edited)

I take a bit of issue with this part, and it may just be the way it's written (or misunderstood by me):

Quote

Grabbing Anthony Miller towards the tail end of the second round is good value for him, although I question his fit outside of the slot.  The bigger issue I have is with what they gave up to secure him.  After giving up their third round pick as part of the Mitchell Trubisky trade, they had to give up a '19 2nd round pick to receive the pick from the Patriots.

We didn't give up a '19 2nd rounder at all but merely took the pick a year early. It wasn't the usual trade situation where you swap picks and give up a future pick since we didn't have another 2nd this year at the time of the trade.

All we gave up was one of this year's 4th rounders (received in a trade last year) for the privilege of taking the pick a year early and, given that trade value for a future pick is considered a round lower, it's extremely good value.

Ultimately, if we are picking at or after the 19th pick next year, we come out well ahead. If Miller produces even half of his college production then it's an absolute steal.

 

Edit: I should have read to the end of the thread before posting what @Superman(DH23) said practically verbatim :) 

Edited by base615

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Agree with Steelers', I think maybe slightly low on Chicago - thought they had one of the best. Looking forward to seeing the rest, Woody :) 

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15 hours ago, CWood21 said:

chicago_bears.png

1(8) - Roquan Smith [LB; Georgia]
2(39) - James Daniels [C; Iowa]
2(51) - Anthony Miller [WR; Memphis]
4(115) - Joel Iyiegbuniwe [LB; Western Kentucky]
5(145) - Bilal Nichols [DT; Delaware]
6(181) - Kylie Fitts [EDGE; Utah]
7(224) - Javon Wims [WR; Georgia]

It's hard to find much to fault with the Bears draft, they got a good combination of upside and floors.  It might not go down as the sexiest of drafts, but this is probably a draft class that 10+ years down the road we're looking back and talking about the impact that this draft class had on the Bears' fortune.  Let's start at the beginning where the Bears tabbed Roquan Smith with the 8th overall pick.  Personally, I had Tremaine Edmunds as my top ranked LB and largely was based on the upside possessed.  

Agreed.

 

Given his relative small stature, I had some questions about his ability to hold up in traffic particularly if the lineman in front of him were unable to sustain their blockers allowing him to make their move.  Ultimately though, it's hard to believe that he won't be productive with the Bears especially after producing at a high level at Georgia against tough SEC competition.  

Agreed.

 

James Daniels graded out as my highest ranked C prospect in this year's drat, and figures to be a relatively safe bet to to anchor the offensive line for the next decade.  Billy Price and Frank Ragnow would have been ultimately graded higher than Daniels, in large part because I felt that Ragnow and Price had legitimate value as guard prospects as well.  I didn't really see guard value in Daniels, which is probably part of the reason why he fell into the second round where Billy Price and Frank Ragnow went in the first round.  

I agree that his best position is center.  Bears are putting him at guard to start which doesn't seem the best option.  Another speculated that it may because they would rather not have a rookie making the line calls right off, and there is some logic to that.  I do think he can play guard however.  

Grabbing Anthony Miller towards the tail end of the second round is good value for him, although I question his fit outside of the slot.  The bigger issue I have is with what they gave up to secure him.  After giving up their third round pick as part of the Mitchell Trubisky trade, they had to give up a '19 2nd round pick to receive the pick from the Patriots.  

They look at as they gave up next years 2nd rounder to draft in 2nd round this year.  

Barring short of a significant improvement out of Mitchell Trubisky, they figure to be a bottom 10 team so giving up a pick in the 33-42 range is going to be hard to swallow.  The only WR's of value that I had left were Michael Gallup, so if you're fine with what they gave up then the value of the pick itself isn't bad.  

In the fourth round, the Bears took Joel Iyiegbuniwe out of Western Kentucky who declared early for the NFL draft.  While I question his decision, it's not for me to judge when he's the one making the decision.  As for the player himself, he's a tremendous athlete but his lack of size is going to create struggles for him to succeed and he's going to fill in the same role as Roquan Smith which would indicate that he's a ST player at most.

Agreed.

 Bilal Nichols came on late and showed up well at the East-West Shrine game.  There are some concerns about his motor.  Given his raw physical tools and how well he played against decent competition, that's not a bad gamble to make especially this late in the draft.  At the very least, he figures to add some solid depth on the defensive line for the Bears.  The inconsistent tape and hot/cold motor probably turned teams off.  

I only saw him play against VT and two reps in Senior bowl practice.  I wasn't impressed. 

Pass rushers tend to go off the board early and often, especially those who are proven.  Kylie Fitts wasn't very productive in terms of production in college, but he's a better athlete than given credit for.  He's probably not much more than a situational pass rusher at the next level, but his flexibility in terms of roles he was asked to play makes him a solid bet to make the final 53 and play on special teams.  I hadn't really evaluated Javon Wims as he was an average athlete at best and less than ideal hand size.  Given his limited athleticism, it's going to be tough for him to make the final 53 unless he cracks on special teams.  Overall, it's a solid but unspectacular draft class.  They should get a good amount of production, particularly out of their first two picks who should be stalwarts for the Bears for years to come.  Grabbing Anthony Miller gives the Bears another option to give Mitchell Trubisky to thrive, but the value is where I have the biggest question.  If the Bears keep borrowing picks from the future, they're eventually going to regret that decision and they need to put Mitchell Trubisky in a position to succeed.

Best Value Pick: James Daniels [C; Iowa]
Worst Value Pick: Anthony Miller [WR; Memphis]
Grade: B+

 

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8 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

So really my only beef, is your beef with the trade, which I think is falacious reasoning.  You use the trade for Trubisky last year as part of your reasoning for not liking the trade this year.  Last year the Bears gave up 2 3rds and 2 4ths to move up to get their franchise qb.  If you get the pick right, there is no price too high to get your franchise qb.  If you get it wrong then the cost doesnt matter.  The signs are pointing to the Bears having got that one very right.  Pace also recouped all of those picks except the 3rd this year, by manipulating the board, while still getting Tarik Cohen and Eddie Jackson.  This years trade was a much different issue.  Future picks are valued 1 round down.  The Bears didnt have a 3rd round pick but had 2 4ths.  They essentially traded 1 4th for the right to use next years 2nd this year for a player they had ranked very high who gives them ANOTHER weapon who can come in in this first year od the new offense and learn it with everybody else. I (and I imagine the Bears themselves) dont expect the Bears to contend for the SuperBowl this year.  Where I think you are wrong is your assessment that they will be picking top 10 again next year.  I think they are more likely to be picking bottom 10 than top 10 next year so i dont see that issue. But what this is really about is 2019 when I (and I expect the Bears) do think the Bears will be contending.  It makes a lot more sense to get Miller in learning how to be a pro and the offense with everybody else and ready to hit the ground running in 2019.

It's not really fallacious, because I wasn't using that to criticize the pick itself.  I mentioned that the Bears traded their '18 3rd round pick as part of the Trubisky trade, which is the reason why the Bears had to deal their '19 2nd round pick to select Anthony Miller.  That meant that the Bears couldn't ship their 3rd round pick and whatever else they were going to attach in order to move up.  Instead, they had to dig into future picks which I'm generally not a fan of unless you're talking about game-changers and/or quarterbacks.

As for the trade, you and @base615 can sugarcoat it however you want.  The Bears traded their '19 2nd round pick in order to pick up a slot WR.  That's not good value for me.  And I'd probably consider myself a fan of Miller's.  I'm very aware of how future picks are valued, although it's different from team-to-team.

I'm not going to touch the Trubisky debate, but your opinion of his play and I are probably on two different wavelengths so let's just agree to disagree.  But if you think the Bears are closer to being bottom 10 than top 10, we're clearly on different wavelengths.  Unless Trubisky jumps to a different level, I don't think they're doubling their win total.

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7 hours ago, base615 said:

We didn't give up a '19 2nd rounder at all but merely took the pick a year early. It wasn't the usual trade situation where you swap picks and give up a future pick since we didn't have another 2nd this year at the time of the trade.

All we gave up was one of this year's 4th rounders (received in a trade last year) for the privilege of taking the pick a year early and, given that trade value for a future pick is considered a round lower, it's extremely good value.

Ultimately, if we are picking at or after the 19th pick next year, we come out well ahead. If Miller produces even half of his college production then it's an absolute steal.

You can sugarcoat it however you want, but the Bears traded their '19 2nd round pick in order to select Anthony Miller in the second.  That limits the flexibility that the Bears have in 2019, which is part of my evaluation.  Saints are going to be docked for giving up their '19 1st round pick.  IF the Bears want to move up in the first round next year, it's going to take a '20 1st round pick in order to do so since a 3rd round pick only moves them up a few spots and if they make that move up, they're limited from that point forward.  That's not a good business model.  The value of the trade isn't the issue, I don't dig into future picks for anything less than an impact player or a quarterback.  Anthony Miller isn't either.

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nfl_arizona_cardinals2.png?29542

1(10) - Josh Rosen [QB; UCLA]
2(47) - Christian Kirk [WR; Texas A&M]
3(97) - Mason Cole [C; Michigan]
4(134) - Chase Edmonds [RB; Fordham]
6(182) - Christian Campbell [CB; Penn State]
7(254) - Korey Cunningham [OT; Cincinnati]

Quite frankly, I think there's going to be a myriad of opinions on the Cardinals draft and I believe it has largely to do with their first pick of the draft, Josh Rosen.  But I'll dig into him in a bit, but for now I'll overlook the entire Cardinals draft.  After finishing the season 8-8, the Cardinals were the pinnacle of not good enough to be a playoff team and not bad enough to bottom out for a franchise QB.  Or at least in a range where it wouldn't be too expensive to move up if one fell down the board.  Fortunately, the Cardinals saw a potential franchise QB fall into the range where the cost didn't go crazy.  The Cardinals actually won this trade, and probably should have had to add another 5th round pick in order to match values but given the Raiders desire to move down the Cardinals made out abundantly well.  Add on that the Cardinals didn't have to pay premium, and the cost the Cardinals gave up especially in comparison to what the Bills gave up makes this a hard deal to dislike even if you aren't a fan of Josh Rosen.  That being said, Josh Rosen was my top ranked QB so getting him at 10 was nothing short of a steal.  Obviously, not everyone comes with the same belief that Josh Rosen is a franchise QB and apparently was off many boards, but his talent is undeniable even if he rubs people the wrong way.  He'll likely start the year 3rd on the depth chart behind Sam Bradford and Mike Glennon, but given Sam Bradford's inability to stay healthy he'll likely end up as the primary backup at a certain point.  Pairing with Josh Rosen, the Cardinals added Christian Kirk in the middle of the second round to play in the slot.  Larry Fitzgerald is already 34 years old, so as Josh Rosen starts to develop into his prime he'll be close to retirement.  Adding some receiving talent that Josh Rosen can develop chemistry will play dividends down the road.  While not the most exciting group, Larry Fitzgerald, Brice Butler, and Christian Kirk figure to be a solid trio.  I'm not huge on the value of Mason Cole as I had an early Day 3 grade, but it's not bad value by any means.  But the part that I like the most about the drafting of Cole is that they're going to give Josh Rosen his center to work with as he develops.  That's invaluable reps that those two have together that I think is hard to effectively value.  Chase Edmonds went off the board a tad earlier than I thought he would go, but given that we're talking about Day 3 of the draft we're starting to get to the point where boards are vastly different so I don't hate this pick.  I believe I had John Kelly as my top ranked available back, but I don't hate this pick.  Christian Campbell seems like a pretty good athlete, but I think his CB skills are a bit behind.  Solid value pick with Korey Cunningham, even if he doesn't amount to much.  You're getting some solid depth with this pick, but I'm not sure there really isn't much room to imagine upon.  Overall, the Cardinals did about as well as I would have hoped that they did in this year's draft.  They made a concerted effort once Josh Rosen fell into the draft to put him in as strong a position as they could and they didn't mortgage the future do so.  It's hard to find anything to really fault the Cardinals for, but they also kept to their values and looked at their long-term future with their picks.

Best Value Pick: Josh Rosen [QB; UCLA]
Worst Value Pick: Chase Edmonds [RB; Fordham]
Grade: B+

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