Forge Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ftn49 said: So I did a little research, I took three relatively random teams which ended up being NE, LA rams and MIN. NE had 8 first or second round starters on there team meaning roughly 64 percent were starters taken 3rd round or later. The rams have 13 first or second rounds meaning 41 percent of the starting roster is 3rd round or lower. Minnesota had 10 first or second rounders starting equating to 45 percent being lower than the third round. You can argue it doesn't happen as often that you get a starter from a later round, however the bulk of nfl rosters are made from 3rd round or lower selections. I mean it makes sense too. There are only 64 selections in the first two rounds then roughly 200 after that for any given draft. For sure it makes sense, but I think you have to consider free agency / trades in that mix as well. That plays a prominent role. And the quality of those players has to be addressed as well - what percentage of those guys are "JAG" and easily replaceable? I'm willing to bet quite a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ftn49 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 The other part of it that makes sense is that during my digging I think I saw the average 1st round draft picks career is five years. Let's be generous and say 7 years and extend that to the second rounders too which it doesn't. On average you have two first and second round picks in any given year. After 7 years you have a total of 14 players and that's assuming they all pan out. That's still just a little over half of your starting roster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ftn49 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Forge said: For sure it makes sense, but I think you have to consider free agency / trades in that mix as well. That plays a prominent role. And the quality of those players has to be addressed as well - what percentage of those guys are "JAG" and easily replaceable? I'm willing to bet quite a few. I'm sure you are correct on the vast majority of those players being replaceable parts. I think I saw it goes down to like 1 or 2 percent after like the 3rd round or so that become multiple pro bowlers. My whole premise I guess is all picks are valuable, which I'm sure you dont disagree with in general. It's just slightly differing philosophies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ftn49 said: The other part of it that makes sense is that during my digging I think I saw the average 1st round draft picks career is five years. Let's be generous and say 7 years and extend that to the second rounders too which it doesn't. On average you have two first and second round picks in any given year. After 7 years you have a total of 14 players and that's assuming they all pan out. That's still just a little over half of your starting roster. Not debating that the meat of the NFL rosters is later round picks. that makes sense in pretty much every way. You also need roster fodder and lower priced guys to maintain the cap. But again, you have to look at the quality of players and how many are fairly easily replaceable. Not really something you can do, but hopefully you understand what I'm getting at. Secondarily, let's say 50% of all starting lineups are made up 3rd round picks or lower. We have to admit that comes from a pool of thousands. So 352 starters in the league third round or later, out of a pool probably around 2000 just going back 4 years. That means you have roughly a what, 17% chance of finding a starter. Now, a certain percentage of those guys is JAG and easily replaceable. Are we fretting over looking Colbert, for example even though he was technically a starter? No, because it's probably pretty easy to get the same production on the market. Its just not enough for me to really value those selections all that high - fans tend to overrate mid round picks. They are important, but I think any team can survive a loss of a third / fourth in any given year. Most years you're not getting anything of substance from those picks anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
y2lamanaki Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Forge said: Not debating that the meat of the NFL rosters is later round picks. that makes sense in pretty much every way. You also need roster fodder and lower priced guys to maintain the cap. But again, you have to look at the quality of players and how many are fairly easily replaceable. Not really something you can do, but hopefully you understand what I'm getting at. Secondarily, let's say 50% of all starting lineups are made up 3rd round picks or lower. We have to admit that comes from a pool of thousands. So 352 starters in the league third round or later, out of a pool probably around 2000 just going back 4 years. That means you have roughly a what, 17% chance of finding a starter. Now, a certain percentage of those guys is JAG and easily replaceable. Are we fretting over looking Colbert, for example even though he was technically a starter? No, because it's probably pretty easy to get the same production on the market. Its just not enough for me to really value those selections all that high - fans tend to overrate mid round picks. They are important, but I think any team can survive a loss of a third / fourth in any given year. Most years you're not getting anything of substance from those picks anyway. Colbert's still that cheap valuable depth, which this team still badly needs, and he's a great Special Teams player. And while they haven't been spectacular yet outside of Kittle, Lynch and Shanahan have really done a good job of finding a lot of guys who can fill out various roles on the team. This team obviously needs depth and several starters. We are only expected to have six picks as it is. We can't come out of the draft with only 4 guys. But, the difference here is really just about how big the gap between the best player in the draft and the second best player in the draft is. And I don't think it's that big of a gap. Not for a 2nd, the third pick in the 3rd, and another pick on top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
49erurtaza Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Not that QBs matter to us but here's the senior bowl breakdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 58 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said: But, the difference here is really just about how big the gap between the best player in the draft and the second best player in the draft is. And I don't think it's that big of a gap. Not for a 2nd, the third pick in the 3rd, and another pick on top of it. Agree that this is the crux of it. I think I'm at that point where I would want Bosa enough over the others to make the deal. I really, really like Josh Allen, so it's hard to say...and I'll be happy if we stay put and take him at 2, but I think I'd just feel more comfortable if we secured Bosa, I suppose. I wished I liked the other edge guys a little more in our scheme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-ALL-DAY Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Kyle Murray to enter the draft or at least leaning towards it. That's big right there. Solid chance he gets taken in the top 10-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
49erurtaza Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John232 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, 49erurtaza said: Hurd is an intriguing mid round guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 David sills is a really interesting dude. Anyone remember that 12 or 13 year old quarterback that Lane kiffin gave a scholarship to when he was there at usc like 10 years ago? Yup, that was David Sills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John232 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, Forge said: David sills is a really interesting dude. Anyone remember that 12 or 13 year old that Lane kiffin gave a scholarship to when he was there like 10 years ago? Yup, that was him He's smooth too. Guys his size tend to be extremely tight, he's not. Still not sold on him being a prolific receiver, but could be a really good WR2. Plaxico Burress or Brian Fineran-esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fureys49ers Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Deebo Samuel is the intriguing one for me, love what he brings to the table and how he plays. Also think he could be a WR Shanny type WR to me with his versatility amongst other traits. Also very intrigued by Brady in the mid to late rounds, I think he’s gonna have himself a nice career. Sills comes off as a poor mans Cooper Kupp to me, and I don’t hate it. Jaylen Smith I liked a lot when he was younger but since Lamar’s breakout season three years ago he’s kind of fallen off. That said 4 WRs that I like a lot being coached by Shanny and crew is excellent news to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 hours ago, Forge said: David sills is a really interesting dude. Anyone remember that 12 or 13 year old quarterback that Lane kiffin gave a scholarship to when he was there at usc like 10 years ago? Yup, that was David Sills I saw him play in his bowl game, I'm not sure he's fast enough for kyle to be honest. I only saw one game, and maybe a week of practice will change that narrative, he seemed like a talented, passionate guy who had a large catch radius. Unquestioned leader on the team too from what I could tell, always a plus I am hoping this opportunity for our coaching staff and our front office changes the way they evalutate prospects and not rely so much on 'scheme fits' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
757-NINER Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 5 hours ago, N4L said: I saw him play in his bowl game, I'm not sure he's fast enough for kyle to be honest. I only saw one game, and maybe a week of practice will change that narrative, he seemed like a talented, passionate guy who had a large catch radius. Unquestioned leader on the team too from what I could tell, always a plus I am hoping this opportunity for our coaching staff and our front office changes the way they evalutate prospects and not rely so much on 'scheme fits' I agree....looked slow out of his breaks and didn't seem to have that short-area agility to beat press-man consistently. Could develop but I just don't see it@this point. And I think physically, he's going to get mauled at the next level. He's built like a 14 year old girl... Samuels is a guy I really want to get a closer look at. Disappointed he didn't play in his bowl game. Really wanted to see him against that UVA secondary. He's built like a bigger Garcon but I question his long speed and burst. But he seems like a guy who could be a future Z in this offense if he can create separation versus press-coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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