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Does Rivers make the HoF?

patriotsheatyan

By patriotsheatyan
in NFL General

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Xenos

Xenos

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On 8/18/2018 at 2:00 PM, Raves said:

You realize that Brees also utilizes every position on the field equally as well also right?

I am going more by what I've seen during Brees' first few years as a Saint, because Payton uses throws to RBs as an extension of the running game. Brees would take shots underneath when there was nothing open, which would draw defenses in, and that would open up the top for a deep play. It's why Sproles did so much better in Payton's system than he ever did in Norv's in SD. Obviously, I don't know if things have changed since then. Has Payton finally gotten over his aversion to run the ball more and be more balanced on offense?

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DingoLadd

DingoLadd

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On 8/17/2018 at 4:55 AM, Raves said:

Top 10 <> HOF

If you aren't considered to be in the absolute top tier of QBs then why bother putting them in?  You think Stafford should be in?  I mean Eli Manning has pretty much damn near identical stats at Rivers.

Eli vs Ben vs Rivers

Look at that.  Nearly identical stats, though 2 of the 3 have multiple SB rings, the other... nope notta.

 

On 8/17/2018 at 11:23 AM, game3525 said:

This is disingenuous.

Rivers and Ben have similar stats (bulk and efficiency), but Rivers and Eli do not. 

QB Rating: Rivers (94.8) Eli (83.5)

YPA: Rivers (7.8) Eli (7.0)

TD%: Rivers (5.3%) Eli (4.6%)

Completion percentage: Rivers (64.2) Eli (60.0)

The bulk stats are similar because Eli started two more seasons (Rivers didn't get his first start till 2006, Eli had already played 25 games). Even still, Rivers has more career touchdown passes then Eli. 

This. I'd add more but this is basically what I was going to say.

On 8/17/2018 at 12:55 PM, lancerman said:

Most people do they just realize that for the second longest reigning Iron Man in the most pass friendly era ever, having 5 guys who played during his era being ahead of him on that means it’s more about stat inflation. 

The knock on Eli is that he was maybe top 5 at his position once in his career..

Literally only 2011 and since then the giants have done next to nothing.

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FalconFan13

FalconFan13

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I would say the person to compare with Rivers at this point would be Ryan on if their going to get in or not.  Both have had very similar careers where they started young and strong with their stats and will have a crazy amount of yards and TD's when they are done.  The problems for both might be they both started rough in the playoffs and without a ring im not sure if they get in or not.  The MVP will help Ryans case and he is younger so he still has a better chance with the team built around him to get a ring but it's not a guarantee.

I liked that comparison you did up there on those 3 QB's.  I added in Ryan on it with those 3 and did a comparison of their 1st 10 years which is what Ryan has done so far to see what kind of pace he is on compared to them in general at this point.

He is outpacing all 3 of them as it sits right now and his playoff numbers are way better than those 3 outside of eli and ben getting a ring which honestly outside of dumb coaching at the end of the Sb he would already have one just taking a knee or handing it off 3 times and kicking a FG.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&player_id1_hint=Philip+Rivers&player_id1_select=Philip+Rivers&player_id1=RivePh00&fromyear_1=2004&toyear_1=2013&player_id2_hint=Eli+Manning&player_id2_select=Eli+Manning&player_id2=MannEl00&fromyear_2=2004&toyear_2=2013&player_id3_hint=Matt+Ryan&player_id3_select=Matt+Ryan&player_id3=RyanMa00&idx=players&fromyear_3=2008&toyear_3=2017&player_id4_hint=Ben+Roethlisberger&player_id4_select=Ben+Roethlisberger&fromyear_4=2004&toyear_4=2013&player_id4=RoetBe00&idx=players

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megatechpc

megatechpc

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6 minutes ago, FalconFan13 said:

I would say the person to compare with Rivers at this point would be Ryan on if their going to get in or not.  Both have had very similar careers where they started young and strong with their stats and will have a crazy amount of yards and TD's when they are done.  The problems for both might be they both started rough in the playoffs and without a ring im not sure if they get in or not.  The MVP will help Ryans case and he is younger so he still has a better chance with the team built around him to get a ring but it's not a guarantee.

I liked that comparison you did up there on those 3 QB's.  I added in Ryan on it with those 3 and did a comparison of their 1st 10 years which is what Ryan has done so far to see what kind of pace he is on compared to them in general at this point.

He is outpacing all 3 of them as it sits right now and his playoff numbers are way better than those 3 outside of eli and ben getting a ring which honestly outside of dumb coaching at the end of the Sb he would already have one just taking a knee or handing it off 3 times and kicking a FG.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&player_id1_hint=Philip+Rivers&player_id1_select=Philip+Rivers&player_id1=RivePh00&fromyear_1=2004&toyear_1=2013&player_id2_hint=Eli+Manning&player_id2_select=Eli+Manning&player_id2=MannEl00&fromyear_2=2004&toyear_2=2013&player_id3_hint=Matt+Ryan&player_id3_select=Matt+Ryan&player_id3=RyanMa00&idx=players&fromyear_3=2008&toyear_3=2017&player_id4_hint=Ben+Roethlisberger&player_id4_select=Ben+Roethlisberger&fromyear_4=2004&toyear_4=2013&player_id4=RoetBe00&idx=players

I wish I could "Like" this post because I've said for a long time that Ryan never gets anywhere near the respect he's due, just looking at his stats.  Had they kicked a FG in the SB he'd have a ring right now and I think would almost certainly make the HOF already.  But as-is, he'll definitely need to do more to get in.  Luckily the Falcons have built an incredible roster around him over the past 4-5 years (almost all of it through their own draft picks) and he only just turned 33 a couple of months ago, so he absolutely has a good 3-4 year window to get that ring and cement his place in the Hall.  

Rivers probably won't ever win a ring at this point in his career (this season may be his best shot left) and if he doesn't he will be borderline.  His stats are easily good enough for serious consideration, but his overall success with the Chargers has been nearly nonexistent.  Since we already discussed Ryan, let's compare their playoff records.  Rivers' best season was 2007 when he lost in his only AFCCG whereas Ryan has been to 2 NFCCG's and won one of them to go to the SB.  Rivers' playoffs TD/INT numbers are 11/9 whereas Ryan's are 20/7, so that's a clear advantage.  Rivers does have a slightly higher YPA in the playoffs at 8.0 compared to Ryan's 7.6 (Rivers' total playoff yards are 2165 compared to Ryan's 2672), but his completion percentage is only 60.3% compared to Ryan's outstanding 67.5% in the playoffs.  Lastly, Rivers' career playoff QBR is 85.2 compared to Ryan's 100.8 so Ryan has clearly been a better playoff QB than Rivers overall. 

After looking at the numbers I almost feel that if Rivers gets in based on his numbers to this point, you almost HAVE to put Ryan in as well.  Though Rivers has slightly better stats overall, he's also played in 38 more games than Ryan and Ryan has had better post season success (and a league MVP).

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Forge

Forge

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4 minutes ago, game3525 said:

Rivers should have been AP All-Pro in 2008. Him not making says more about the voters then his actually talent level. 

I would agree that he should have made it over Manning that year (you can debate first and second team with Brees...I probably would have given the nod to Rivers, but I would have understood giving it to Brees). I have to wonder how many hall of fame voters retcon (that's probably not the ideal word there, but it's the best I could really think of). Do most voters just look and say "well, he wasn't an all pro at any point", or do they actually dig into it and say, "yeah, he wasn't an all pro, but he probably should have been this year and this year...the voters got this wrong). 

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game3525

game3525

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1 minute ago, Forge said:

I would agree that he should have made it over Manning that year (you can debate first and second team with Brees...I probably would have given the nod to Rivers, but I would have understood giving it to Brees). I have to wonder how many hall of fame voters retcon (that's probably not the ideal word there, but it's the best I could really think of). Do most voters just look and say "well, he wasn't an all pro at any point", or do they actually dig into it and say, "yeah, he wasn't an all pro, but he probably should have been this year and this year...the voters got this wrong). 

I doubt it.

I think most voters are going to look back and say "So and so was never an all-pro, so that means he wasn't that great". This is why it is so important to get these awards right in the moment, since they can have massive implications down the road.

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Shanedorf

Shanedorf

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28 minutes ago, Forge said:

Do most voters just look and say "well, he wasn't an all pro at any point", or do they actually dig into it and say, "yeah, he wasn't an all pro, but he probably should have been this year and this year..

The process is that somebody gets up and makes the case, typically a beat writer or columnist that covered that player. The presentation can last 30-45 minutes and it includes much of what you are referencing above. So yes, somebody digs deep into it and all of that info is shared in the room, including comments from his peers and opponents who played at the same time. These guys are professional journalists presenting to professional journalists, so the quality is pretty high based on what I've read over the years. We often gripe that the voters got it wrong, but none of us are in the room and few of us go to the lengths they do for the HOF selection committee

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