Mitchell Trubisky's Future

[CWood21]

6 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

The major discrepancy being arm strength?

That.  And Josh Allen measured in at almost 6'5", 240 where Tru was a shade over 6'2", 220.  Allen also has massive mitts compared to Trubisky.  And relatively speaking, Allen's raw numbers were less impressive than Trubisky, but the fact that Allen did it with an extra 3 inches and 15 pounds on Allen shrinks that gap.

[MacReady]

And lol at people saying he ain't got no talent to throw to.  Before the year, it was "Pace so good he fixed the receiving corps in one offseason."  Now it's... "Well they aren't so great." 

Trubisky looked great against the Packers early on with the scripted plays and the high-paced, energetic offense.  Once the script ran dry and he had to play an actual game, the Packers defense - THE PACKERS DEFENSE - Shut him down. 

[Broncofan]

It's year 1 of a new system, new HC.  

Tru had 1 year of college starting.  

Conclusion - it's too early to tell.  Probably needs 1 more season and then see where he's at with Nagy's system, before you worry about if he can't do it.  Just realize this year is going to suck if you own Bears skill players in fantasy...and as a Bears fan, given how great that D is.

Now, if you want to debate taking him at 1.2, given Watson/Mahomes, well, no question it was a mistake.   But saying 1.2 was a mistake, versus saying he's got no future yet, that's a bridge too soon.  From a pure football perspective, if you are just worried about Trubisky's future, his level of inexperience in college, a new system, this was easy to forecast.    It doesn't change the fact that it was a bad pick given who was available there (and frankly, trading up was ludicrous to boot), but that's a sunk cost.  The Q on whether he has a future as a starter on a good team - that gets answered definitely in 2019.  For now, it's likely an "incomplete".

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

Nah, not light years. Trubisky has nearly the same tools; he's just a smaller version of Allen. 

 

27 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

No.  Trubisky does not have the same tools as Allen.  And I don't think it's close either.

 

15 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

The major discrepancy being arm strength?

 

8 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

That.  And Josh Allen measured in at almost 6'5", 240 where Tru was a shade over 6'2", 220.  Allen also has massive mitts compared to Trubisky.  And relatively speaking, Allen's raw numbers were less impressive than Trubisky, but the fact that Allen did it with an extra 3 inches and 15 pounds on Allen shrinks that gap.

As I say that Trubisky needs 1 more year before he can be truly judged - there's simply no comparison in between ceiling.  Allen's skills at his size AND his generational arm strength are what give him the Favre-like ceiling.

Trubisky might end up a better version of Ryan Tannehill, his skill set screams that as how Nagy should use him.  Until he shows more as a pocket passer and read-progression (and eyes up with pressure, dude, don't just look to take off and run), that's my hope for Trubisky this year.  

[SmittyBacall]

15 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

That.  And Josh Allen measured in at almost 6'5", 240 where Tru was a shade over 6'2", 220.  Allen also has massive mitts compared to Trubisky.  And relatively speaking, Allen's raw numbers were less impressive than Trubisky, but the fact that Allen did it with an extra 3 inches and 15 pounds on Allen shrinks that gap.

Well then I guess my first comparison of the two stands. Trubisky - while obviously not having the generational arm talent of Allen (few, if ever do), is a smaller/lite version of Allen. Both are serious threats as a runner, and Trubisky - while not having Allen's cannon - can throw a pretty good fastball. Yay or nay?

If Allen's arm is 10/10, what's Trubisky's?

EDIT: Under further review, Trubisky is not in Allen stratosphere in terms of arm. Bad comparison. 

[Broncofan]

5 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Well then I guess my first comparison of the two stands. Trubisky - while obviously not having the generational arm talent of Allen (few, if ever do), is a smaller/lite version of Allen. Both are serious threats as a runner, and Trubisky - while not having Allen's cannon - can throw a pretty good fastball. Yay or nay?

If Allen's arm is 10/10, what's Trubisky's?

Probably about a 8.5.  Thing is, you can find 8-8.5's each year.   You only find a 10 1x a generation, though.

His speed is about a 8. That 8/8.5 is pretty special.

The problem is right now, his read-progression, D-recognition, keep driving-forward-and-throw-with-pressure (happy feet right now galore), and eyes-up-with-pressure, right now, is about a 4/10.   It's that bad.   And those are the skills that often doom a QB.   Still, given he spent all college in a RPO, and then only started 13 games, and now is in a new system, I'm willing to wait another year, and see where he's at in Year 2 of Nagy's system before we really can tell.  But that combo doesn't create the same ceiling as Allen's does.  Not really close TBH.   And to be upfront, I've been pretty down on Allen's future in the NFL.

[Pool]

45 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

And lol at people saying he ain't got no talent to throw to.  Before the year, it was "Pace so good he fixed the receiving corps in one offseason."  Now it's... "Well they aren't so great." 

Trubisky looked great against the Packers early on with the scripted plays and the high-paced, energetic offense.  Once the script ran dry and he had to play an actual game, the Packers defense - THE PACKERS DEFENSE - Shut him down. 

1st game in a new system. 12th game played overall. On the road. At Lambeau. Do these things really need to be pointed out? Are you that casual of a fan? Do you not know that most QB's start off pretty slow and it really isn't that indicative of how good they are or could be?

[Buddyboy]

Bill Wade in 1963 15/12 TD/Int

Jim McMahon in 1985 15/11

1963

Bart Starr 15/10

John Unitas 20/12

YA Tittle 34/15

Bears 1963 defense 9th best in NFL history, 1985 #2 defense

 

[malak1]

1 hour ago, Outpost31 said:

I feel like one of the most important ways to monitor how well a QB is doing or is going to do is to look at his yards per attempt. 

Trubisky has played the Packers, Seahawks and Cardinals.  The Cardinals are 5th worst.  The Packers are eighth worst.  The Seahawks are 6th best. 

Trubisky's 5.68 yards per attempt is eighth worst in the NFL.  Prescott, Foles, Taylor, Gabbert, Luck and Bradford are the only quarterbacks in the NFL with a lower yards per attempt.  That's four quarterbacks who were backups or who have been benched, one QB with the worst receiving corps in the NFL and Luck, who is coming back from two years of absence due to a shoulder problem. 

If Trubisky doesn't start turning that around this week when he plays the third worst team in yards allowed per attempt (Buccaneers), I'd seriously start worrying if I were a Bears fan. 

Everybody knows that the Bears have a team capable of winning a Super Bowl with moderately competent QB play.  The question has always been whether or not Trubisky is the guy.  So far, he's shown he is not.  Against a GOOD defense, I feel like he'd pull a Cousins versus Bills.  Against three or four consecutive playoff teams, I don't think he can do what it takes. 

Obviously I want to believe this, but the evidence out there strongly implies what I want is what I will get. 

Lol.

[malak1]

 

1 hour ago, Outpost31 said:

And lol at people saying he ain't got no talent to throw to.  Before the year, it was "Pace so good he fixed the receiving corps in one offseason."  Now it's... "Well they aren't so great." 

Trubisky looked great against the Packers early on with the scripted plays and the high-paced, energetic offense.  Once the script ran dry and he had to play an actual game, the Packers defense - THE PACKERS DEFENSE - Shut him down. 

One person said that. Lol.

[topwop1]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

You don't sign Trey Burton to a 4 year, $32M deal and call him your backup TE.  That's the 8th highest paid TE, there's legitimately no way you can argue he's the "backup" TE.  You don't pay backup TEs $8M/year.

See my post on this just above.  Regardless of Shaheen being healthy or not, Burton is not a backup, he's a starter, but basically a WR/TE hybrid playing the "U" position in this offense.

[Broncofan]

Re: Supporting cast, let's be clear on a few points:

-Allen Robinson is playing at a WR1 level again.  Just look at the tape, and we'll see it.  P-Pete took him out in ARI, no shame in that.  P-Pete does that to a lot of really good WR's, even WR1's.  A-Rob beat the SEA DB deep on Trubisky's INT, again that throw was on Trubisky.  His ridiculous Week 2 #'s would have been crazy if Tru didn't whiff on that and a couple of other throws where A-Rob beat his guy.   That's on Tru.

-Anthony Miller has been progressing really well, he actually should have scored 2x vs. SEA, but Trubisky threw it wide and low.   Miller was a ghost in the 2H vs. ARI because he separated his shoulder.  He's coming along really well as their 2nd WR.   The missed opp (that 2nd TD vs. SEA, well actually it would have been his 1st, the 2nd came later)...on Trubisky.

-Burton's beaten guys regularly, we saw the clip of the missed TD vs. GB.   He's just not being targeted much...again, more of a reflection of Trubisky's struggles.

A-Rob, Miller & Burton actually form a decent top 3, actually pretty close to league-average now, and only likely to get better (Miller needs to go through the rookie phase before see the real breakthrough, like so many rookie WR's).   Gabriel is just a speed guy, but nothing really wrong as the 3rd WR, and deep threat / bubble screen guy.   Cohen & Howard are fine as the pass-catching / 2-down hammer RB's.  

I've said it's too soon to write Trubisky off, and given his RPO background and 1 year of college starting, and year 1 of Nagy's system, I stand by that.  But I'll also refute any argument that Trubisky's cast is the issue.  Right now, it's all Trubisky.  It's just not that surprising to me, and frankly, it's still too soon to write him off, given what we know of his stage of development.  Of course, Pace should have known that too before trading up to 1.2 for him, but that's a sunk cost, what's done is done (but yeah, bad move there, given the board and who was available).

[malak1]

2 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Re: Supporting cast, let's be clear on a few points:

-Allen Robinson is playing at a WR1 level again.  Just look at the tape, and we'll see it.  P-Pete took him out in ARI, no shame in that.  P-Pete does that to a lot of really good WR's, even WR1's.  A-Rob beat the SEA DB deep on Trubisky's INT, again that throw was on Trubisky.  His ridiculous Week 2 #'s would have been crazy if Tru didn't whiff on that and a couple of other throws where A-Rob beat his guy.   That's on Tru.

-Anthony Miller has been progressing really well, he actually should have scored 2x vs. SEA, but Trubisky threw it wide and low.   Miller was a ghost in the 2H vs. ARI because he separated his shoulder.  He's coming along really well as their 2nd WR.   The missed opp (that 2nd TD vs. SEA, well actually it would have been his 1st, the 2nd came later)...on Trubisky.

-Burton's beaten guys regularly, we saw the clip of the missed TD vs. GB.   He's just not being targeted much...again, more of a reflection of Trubisky's struggles.

A-Rob, Miller & Burton actually form a decent top 3, albeit Miller needs to go through the rookie phase.   Gabriel is just a speed guy, but nothing really wrong as the 3rd WR, and deep threat / bubble screen guy.   Cohen & Howard are fine as the pass-catching / 2-down hammer RB's.  

I've said it's too soon to write Trubisky, and given his RPO background and 1 year of college starting, and year 1 of Nagy's system, I stand by that.  But I'll also refute any argument that Trubisky's cast is the issue.  Right now, it's all Trubisky.  It's just not that surprising to me, and frankly, it's still too soon to write him off, given what we know of his stage of development.  Of course, Pace should have known that too before trading up to 1.2 for him, but that's a sunk cost, what's done is done (but yeah, bad move there, given the board and who was available).

I agree with this. This team is good, it’s up to Trubisky to make them really good.

[bananabucket]

Bottom third of the league as a starter or a great backup.  On par with Jacoby Brissett.  

[MacReady]

1 hour ago, malak1 said:

Lol.

Convincing counter argument.