Mitchell Trubisky's Future

[TankWilliams]

45 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Convincing counter argument.

Lol.

[FinSting]

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I've said it's too soon to write Trubisky off, and given his RPO background and 1 year of college starting, and year 1 of Nagy's system, I stand by that.  

It's the defense's fault. Let me know when after three games the Bears defense can attain 5 INT's, 14 sacks, 2 defensive TD's, and 7 forced fumbles. 

Until the defense can do that, Trubisky is a struggling, lost QB. 

 

[CWood21]

3 hours ago, topwop1 said:

See my post on this just above.  Regardless of Shaheen being healthy or not, Burton is not a backup, he's a starter, but basically a WR/TE hybrid playing the "U" position in this offense.

Nothing has really changed from my point.  You're not paying Burton $8M to be the "backup" TE.  He's going to get starter reps whether it be as the H-Back, TE, or whatever.  Calling him a backup is disingenuous.

[MrOaktown_56]

5 hours ago, Broncofan said:

It's year 1 of a new system, new HC.  

Tru had 1 year of college starting.  

Conclusion - it's too early to tell.  Probably needs 1 more season and then see where he's at with Nagy's system, before you worry about if he can't do it.  Just realize this year is going to suck if you own Bears skill players in fantasy...and as a Bears fan, given how great that D is.

Now, if you want to debate taking him at 1.2, given Watson/Mahomes, well, no question it was a mistake.   But saying 1.2 was a mistake, versus saying he's got no future yet, that's a bridge too soon.  From a pure football perspective, if you are just worried about Trubisky's future, his level of inexperience in college, a new system, this was easy to forecast.    It doesn't change the fact that it was a bad pick given who was available there (and frankly, trading up was ludicrous to boot), but that's a sunk cost.  The Q on whether he has a future as a starter on a good team - that gets answered definitely in 2019.  For now, it's likely an "incomplete".

 

His system is exceptionally qb friendly. Draws a lot from Reid. If you can't succeed in Nagy's system, that's a problem. The point is that it's accessible and doesn't put too much pressure on the qb.

[malak1]

3 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

Convincing counter argument.

Not a chance I’m engaging with you in a debate. I’ve seen you nearly have a nervous breakdown because GoT shows too much Missandei (no such thing as too much Missandei, tbh.). 

[GSUeagles14]

trubisky hsnt even started a full seasons worth of games yet, way too early to tell anything. Also hilarious that guys having a meltdown that the Bills drafted Allen ( @Thelonebillsfan) are now arguing that Allens upside is light years ahead.

[MrOaktown_56]

4 hours ago, FinSting said:

It's the defense's fault. Let me know when after three games the Bears defense can attain 5 INT's, 14 sacks, 2 defensive TD's, and 7 forced fumbles. 

 

 

Shh. They beat the worst team in football by 2 points last week, thanks to the GOAT trubisky. Let them be.

There's not much left to be said.

He's sucked. But its early and he can maybe turn it around, though he'll have to show things that he hasn't really shown thus far.

[Buddyboy]

Wonder what the internet would have done with 1963? Aging QB Bill Wade who used to sling the ball. relying on the Bears D, Bart Starr off his game in GB, Unitas throwing too many pick-6, Sonny Jurgensen looks brilliant, Bobby Layne now playing in Pittsburgh keeping them in the hunt, the Cardinals once again struggling in St Louis, the Rams have given up on Wade and Bratkowski who is backing up the washed up Starr, Fran Tarkenton is feuding with Van Brocklin in Minnesota, who is threatening to bench Tark and suit up himself. The Browns have some brainiac at QB, math PhD. And then there is YA Tittle who will school the Bears. He is so good the Giants have only a rookie as backup. 

Tittle is the GOAT!!

[ET80]

17 hours ago, malak1 said:

no such thing as too much Missandei, tbh.

This deserves a few footballs. 

[NFLExpert49]

On 9/26/2018 at 10:21 AM, CWood21 said:

The notion that he "really" had to overcome playing out of the shotgun is empirically false.  Most of the QBs in the last several years had this same question mark coming out of college.  I believe only Josh Rosen had extensive snaps under center.  If you're going to credit Trubisky for this, you better be willing to credit the others with it as well.  My guess is you're not willing to.  As for his few mistakes/turnovers, that goes back to his play.  He's a very conservative QB.  He doesn't throw a ton of high-risk, high-reward throws whether that be at North Carolina or with the Bears.  He throws a high percentage of his passes to his backs and TEs relative to his peers.  He's a game manager.

In hindsight, yes.  But at the time, there were a TON of question marks surrounding Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes.  Don't let confirmation bias affect your judgment, the 2017 QB class was viewed as SIGNIFICANTLY worse than the 2018 class and I don't think it was even close.

Just a heads up, if you have to mitigate the players around a player to prop another player up, your argument probably is going to lack some validity.  That being said, let's not act like they're devoid of talent.  Are they flush with All-Pro talent?  No, but there's more than enough talent to make Trubisky look good enough.  Last year, the Bears OL ranked 11th by PFF so they're actually a decent OL.  Maybe nothing special, but they're all-around solid.  Allen Robinson is a legit #1 WR if he's healthy, and he's coming back from injury so you're willing to give him a bit of a pass for the rust.  Taylor Gabriel is a solid slot WR, but nothing special.  But Anthony Miller is going to be legit once he gets more reps in.  You don't sign Trey Burton to a 4 year, $32M deal and call him your backup TE.  That's the 8th highest paid TE, there's legitimately no way you can argue he's the "backup" TE.  You don't pay backup TEs $8M/year.  As much as I think Jordan Howard is limited, he's still a good running back.  I don't think he offers enough on 3rd down to move into that elite territory, but I think you could absolutely make the argument he's right on the outside of that.

If you're missing his downfield throws where he's missing his WR, you're not watching the game.

But Trubisky took like 2 snaps under center in his entire college career. That's the difference. Baker Mayfield had similar question marks, but then that kind of goes back to the point I made about Dorsey passing on the other 3.

Trubisky hit plenty of downfield throws in college. He averaged 12.3 yards per completion in 2016, and it's not like his supporting cast were RAC monsters. 

The 2018 class was thought to be great in early 2017. When the overhyped guys actually played the 2017 season and the 2018 NFL draft rolled around, that completely changed. The 49ers were so unimpressed with the class that they made the mid-season trade for Jimmy G. Dorsey was so unimpressed with Allen, Rosen, and Darnold that he went against the grain and chose Mayfield. 

I liked Miller when I watched him at Memphis, but so far, he looks very marginal. The thing that worried me when I watched him in college was that he looked like he could be a 4.7 guy. His pro day workout alleviated that concern somewhat, but in the NFL so far, he really does look like the 4.7 I feared before. He can't out-run anyone, and when you're as small as he is, that could be game over. 

I don't see Robinson as a legit #1. He didn't come close to matching his big 2015 season in 2016. To me, he's basically Alshon Jeffery 2. 

Re: Burton: You're talking about an undrafted free agent who had a whopping 23 catches last year with the Eagles. You don't draft Adam Shaheen in the 2nd round last year to be a backup. Plus, regardless of what their plans for him were, there is no evidence the guy is very good. He never did anything.

Yes, a great quarterback - particularly in the right scheme - will be fine regardless of who is around him. Trubisky clearly isn't in that class right now. He may never be. But that doesn't mean he's a bust.

Certain quarterbacks can do it when the situation is right (Manning, Eli). And certain quarterbacks won't do it no matter what.

 

[bigbadbuff23835]

21 hours ago, GSUeagles14 said:

trubisky hsnt even started a full seasons worth of games yet, way too early to tell anything. Also hilarious that guys having a meltdown that the Bills drafted Allen ( @Thelonebillsfan) are now arguing that Allens upside is light years ahead.

I don’t think Allen’s upside was ever disputed by anyone, it’s the chances of him getting there are what people were down on. 

I was higher on Allen than most, and i wasn’t mad when we drafted him even though i wanted Rosen at the time because we were coming off of a playoff berth and i wanted someone that was more pro ready. 

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, NFLExpert49 said:

But Trubisky took like 2 snaps under center in his entire college career. That's the difference. Baker Mayfield had similar question marks, but then that kind of goes back to the point I made about Dorsey passing on the other 3.

With the exception of Josh Rosen, almost all of the QBs played almost exclusively out of the shotgun and even Rosen took a majority of those snaps under center.  So acting like Trubisky was at an inherent disadvantage because of this is not only disingenuous, it really has no basis for merit since you have no way to quantify the difference between Trubisky and any other player.  Baker Mayfield played almost exclusively out of the shotgun, and that was a knock on him.  You can't just pick and choose who you're going to apply the qualifiers to in order to fit your argument.  If you're going to apply it to one, you need to apply it to the others as well.

1 hour ago, NFLExpert49 said:

Trubisky hit plenty of downfield throws in college. He averaged 12.3 yards per completion in 2016, and it's not like his supporting cast were RAC monsters.

First off, Trubisky's YPA in 2016 was actually 11.8 yards.  However, the more staggering thing is that you used a season in which Trubisky attempted 47 passes instead of the season in which he threw 447 times and averaged only 8.4 YPA.  When you run into a situation like this, you're always going to take either the most recent data or the bigger sample size.  In this case, you took neither.  Let me demonstrate this to you, let's assume that his longest pass in 2016 was 100 yard TD pass.  You take away that SINGLE pass from his 2016 season, and he averaged 9.9 YPA.  That's a change of 1.9 YPA.  You do the same thing with his 2017 season and his YPA is 8.2, which is a decline of 0.2 YPA.  That's not a huge variation.  There's a reason why his 2017 season is the only one you can really use to confirm it.  And for the record, I'm not saying he can't hit the receiver down the field.  I argued he doesn't consistently do it.

2 hours ago, NFLExpert49 said:

The 2018 class was thought to be great in early 2017. When the overhyped guys actually played the 2017 season and the 2018 NFL draft rolled around, that completely changed. The 49ers were so unimpressed with the class that they made the mid-season trade for Jimmy G. Dorsey was so unimpressed with Allen, Rosen, and Darnold that he went against the grain and chose Mayfield. 

Again, you're using confirmation bias to justify your opinion.  You claim that the 49ers were so unimpressed with the class that they traded for Jimmy G, but let's take a look and look at what the Niners gave up to trade for Jimmy G.  The 49ers traded their 2nd round pick (I believe projected to be 34th at the time).  In order to select one of those QBs (i.e Rosen, Allen, Darnold, etc.), they would have been forced to use their first round pick on them.  So the difference is spending a 2nd round pick on Jimmy G or spending a 1st round pick on one of the rookie QBs, I'm not sure there is a right answer.  Obviously, the 49ers' FO felt that Jimmy G was a franchise QB and giving up a 2nd round pick to get him was a cheap enough value that they could fill their QB situation that way and allow them to retain their 1st round pick.  Had the Niners stuck with leaving Jimmy G on the bench, they could have tanked their way to a top 2 pick and added a guy like Saquon Barkley, Bradley Chubb, etc. as well.  Tell me this, would you rather have Jimmy G. and Barkley/Chubb OR one of the rookie QBs and your 2nd round pick?  If you believed Jimmy G was a franchise QB, the answer isn't very hard.  As for the decision to go with Mayfield, that might hold some argument if the Browns were the only ones who held him in that high regard.  It was leaked that Mayfield was the guy the Patriots were targeting, and multiple other teams were reportedly very high on him.  You're going to find difference in opinion on prospects, and using this as some sort of substantial point really doesn't hold any weight.

2 hours ago, NFLExpert49 said:

I liked Miller when I watched him at Memphis, but so far, he looks very marginal. The thing that worried me when I watched him in college was that he looked like he could be a 4.7 guy. His pro day workout alleviated that concern somewhat, but in the NFL so far, he really does look like the 4.7 I feared before. He can't out-run anyone, and when you're as small as he is, that could be game over. 

Cool.  We're also talking about a guy whose played in 3 career games yet you're ready to cast your opinion on him.  Yet Trubisky has played in 15, yet you're willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.  Why?  Bias.  You watch Anthony Miller play, and it's clear he's not a 4.7 WR.  Guys like Auden Tate run 4.7.  Miller isn't one of those guys.  If you viewed him as a 4.7 guy in college, I'd love to know what game you watched because he played fast.

2 hours ago, NFLExpert49 said:

I don't see Robinson as a legit #1. He didn't come close to matching his big 2015 season in 2016. To me, he's basically Alshon Jeffery 2.

Alshon Jeffery is still a damn good receiver if he could only stay healthy.  If you want to say he's only a #1, you can go right ahead.  But you're also diminishing the impact a TON of other WRs who are on a similar level.  If you want to say he's not a #1 WR, you need to carry that across the board and I'd be willing to bet you wouldn't.

2 hours ago, NFLExpert49 said:

Re: Burton: You're talking about an undrafted free agent who had a whopping 23 catches last year with the Eagles. You don't draft Adam Shaheen in the 2nd round last year to be a backup. Plus, regardless of what their plans for him were, there is no evidence the guy is very good. He never did anything.

So you're telling me you think the Bears signed Burton to a 4 year, $32M deal for him to be a backup?  No.  You're not paying anyone that much to be a backup that isn't a QB.  He is an actual significant part of the Bears' FO whether or not you're willing to admit it.  Also, the notion that Burton didn't do anything or any evidence any good is laughable.  He was a vital part of the Eagles' playoff run and translated that into a big pay day.  Does that mean he's Travis Kelce?  Obviously not.  But let's not pretend like Shaheen has proven anything either.  Shaheen might have been the "starter" in name, but Burton was going to get a starter level of snaps whether it be as the TE, H-Back, or whatever.

2 hours ago, NFLExpert49 said:

Yes, a great quarterback - particularly in the right scheme - will be fine regardless of who is around him. Trubisky clearly isn't in that class right now. He may never be. But that doesn't mean he's a bust.

Certain quarterbacks can do it when the situation is right (Manning, Eli). And certain quarterbacks won't do it no matter what.

So if he's not doing well with what's around him and what's considered a QB-friendly scheme, why wouldn't that make him be viewed as a bust?  We saw him in a poor fit for a QB last year with Fox, and he played poorly.  He's with Nagy, and he's been marginally better.  That's not something I'm excited to see as a Bears' fan.

[Vladimir L]

Bears are a QB away if Fitzmagic was on there they could be 3 and 0

[NFLExpert49]

On 9/27/2018 at 3:48 PM, CWood21 said:

With the exception of Josh Rosen, almost all of the QBs played almost exclusively out of the shotgun and even Rosen took a majority of those snaps under center.  So acting like Trubisky was at an inherent disadvantage because of this is not only disingenuous, it really has no basis for merit since you have no way to quantify the difference between Trubisky and any other player.  Baker Mayfield played almost exclusively out of the shotgun, and that was a knock on him.  You can't just pick and choose who you're going to apply the qualifiers to in order to fit your argument.  If you're going to apply it to one, you need to apply it to the others as well.

First off, Trubisky's YPA in 2016 was actually 11.8 yards.  However, the more staggering thing is that you used a season in which Trubisky attempted 47 passes instead of the season in which he threw 447 times and averaged only 8.4 YPA.  When you run into a situation like this, you're always going to take either the most recent data or the bigger sample size.  In this case, you took neither.  Let me demonstrate this to you, let's assume that his longest pass in 2016 was 100 yard TD pass.  You take away that SINGLE pass from his 2016 season, and he averaged 9.9 YPA.  That's a change of 1.9 YPA.  You do the same thing with his 2017 season and his YPA is 8.2, which is a decline of 0.2 YPA.  That's not a huge variation.  There's a reason why his 2017 season is the only one you can really use to confirm it.  And for the record, I'm not saying he can't hit the receiver down the field.  I argued he doesn't consistently do it.

Again, you're using confirmation bias to justify your opinion.  You claim that the 49ers were so unimpressed with the class that they traded for Jimmy G, but let's take a look and look at what the Niners gave up to trade for Jimmy G.  The 49ers traded their 2nd round pick (I believe projected to be 34th at the time).  In order to select one of those QBs (i.e Rosen, Allen, Darnold, etc.), they would have been forced to use their first round pick on them.  So the difference is spending a 2nd round pick on Jimmy G or spending a 1st round pick on one of the rookie QBs, I'm not sure there is a right answer.  Obviously, the 49ers' FO felt that Jimmy G was a franchise QB and giving up a 2nd round pick to get him was a cheap enough value that they could fill their QB situation that way and allow them to retain their 1st round pick.  Had the Niners stuck with leaving Jimmy G on the bench, they could have tanked their way to a top 2 pick and added a guy like Saquon Barkley, Bradley Chubb, etc. as well.  Tell me this, would you rather have Jimmy G. and Barkley/Chubb OR one of the rookie QBs and your 2nd round pick?  If you believed Jimmy G was a franchise QB, the answer isn't very hard.  As for the decision to go with Mayfield, that might hold some argument if the Browns were the only ones who held him in that high regard.  It was leaked that Mayfield was the guy the Patriots were targeting, and multiple other teams were reportedly very high on him.  You're going to find difference in opinion on prospects, and using this as some sort of substantial point really doesn't hold any weight.

Cool.  We're also talking about a guy whose played in 3 career games yet you're ready to cast your opinion on him.  Yet Trubisky has played in 15, yet you're willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.  Why?  Bias.  You watch Anthony Miller play, and it's clear he's not a 4.7 WR.  Guys like Auden Tate run 4.7.  Miller isn't one of those guys.  If you viewed him as a 4.7 guy in college, I'd love to know what game you watched because he played fast.

Alshon Jeffery is still a damn good receiver if he could only stay healthy.  If you want to say he's only a #1, you can go right ahead.  But you're also diminishing the impact a TON of other WRs who are on a similar level.  If you want to say he's not a #1 WR, you need to carry that across the board and I'd be willing to bet you wouldn't.

So you're telling me you think the Bears signed Burton to a 4 year, $32M deal for him to be a backup?  No.  You're not paying anyone that much to be a backup that isn't a QB.  He is an actual significant part of the Bears' FO whether or not you're willing to admit it.  Also, the notion that Burton didn't do anything or any evidence any good is laughable.  He was a vital part of the Eagles' playoff run and translated that into a big pay day.  Does that mean he's Travis Kelce?  Obviously not.  But let's not pretend like Shaheen has proven anything either.  Shaheen might have been the "starter" in name, but Burton was going to get a starter level of snaps whether it be as the TE, H-Back, or whatever.

So if he's not doing well with what's around him and what's considered a QB-friendly scheme, why wouldn't that make him be viewed as a bust?  We saw him in a poor fit for a QB last year with Fox, and he played poorly.  He's with Nagy, and he's been marginally better.  That's not something I'm excited to see as a Bears' fan.

3748 / 304 = 12.3. We're talking about yards per COMPLETION, not yards per attempt. Yards per attempt is irrelevant when trying to show whether or not a QB threw down the field. Yards per attempt is a measure of the balance between completion percentage and yards per completion. It's a better measurement of a QB's overall performance, but it's too far removed from the distance a QB completes passes from the line of scrimmage. Yards per completion is imperfect as well, as it doesn't show the number of yards after the catch included in this, but generally speaking, 12+ yards per completion means stuff is going down the field at a decent rate. 

The 49ers clearly traded for Jimmy G because they thought he was better than the QBs in the class. The guy was going to be a free agent anyway and they wanted to get the jump on him. They didn't want to risk missing out on him, despite the fact that he was also unproven...which demonstrates they clearly weren't very high on the QBs coming out, as with their record at the time, they were surely going to have a shot at a few of them.

Burton had just 23 catches for 10.8 yards per catch last year. That's not a proven "weapon." Nor is it the kind of guy where his signing clearly relegates a 2nd round pick TE from the previous year to being the #2 tight end.

The whole point of my response was to contest the notion of Trubisky having such "weapons" that render his performance "awful." He's not playing with anything close to what Mahomes and Watson are playing with, for example. And they're not Atlanta or the Giants, either.

Of course, Tom Brady could get it done with a bunch of street free agents, but all that shows is that Trubisky is nowhere near Brady as of now. There's a lot of space between "Brady" and "terrible."

Nathan Peterman is an example of "terrible." 

Mitch has been a marginal "game manager" type this year so far. He's hitting the short stuff at a high rate, he's hitting some hot reads against the blitz, he's picking up some yards with his legs, and he's at least keeping the turnovers reasonable. 

[Nabbs4u]

So Trubisky the next Goff (joke of course)? Sure looks like his TNF game thus far! Funny how quickly things change from game to game!!

? Haters!