2019 Draft Discussion

[Golfman]

Just now, AlexGreen#20 said:

Yep, that's my mock. Mix of prediction and desire.

It's a winner in my book if that means anything. By pick 114 you've touched on every positional need for a player. Book it and let's move to camp. 

[St Vince]

41 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Quick Hitters on the Prospects

1. Cardinals: Kyler Murray (QB-Oklahoma):

I don't watch QBs, (probably have to end that policy next year) but there's a lot of smoke rolling around this one and it seems like it's going to happen. It will be very interesting to see where Josh Rosen ends up, if it isn't competing in the same room. 

2. 49ers: Quinnen Williams (DT-Alabama)

Genuine stud defensive lineman who can do it all and is still super young. Maybe the best DT prospect since Suh. I think there's something to be said for drafting Bosa here, but I don't think Bosa is going to fit in well with the city of San Francisco from a personality standpoint and there will be concerns about being able to resign him.

3. Jets: Nick Bosa (Edge-tOSU)

The Jets will try and trade out of this one. They've been trying to find a home for this pick for a while now, but the Buccaneers and Giants don't seem QB inclined and the Dolphins and Redskins aren't buying that they need to move up to get their guy. Yet.

Bosa's a genuine monster, one of the most pro ready guys since the last Bosa was playing for tOSU. He's a real good athlete, a relentless motor, and comes with a fully polished array of pass rushing moves.

4. Raiders: Josh Allen (Edge-UK)

Gruden isn't drafting a QB.

Whether Josh Allen belongs in the first tier with Bosa and Williams or one tier down in the tier of really good but not great prospects is a topic of conversation. He put everything on tape that you wanted to see, and he's a very good athlete. He's a day one fit as a standup edge rusher with experience dropping as well as rushing. Performed well at the combine as well. How much room he has to develop in keeping himself clean around the corner will determine his development. IMO, I think he's got a pro bowl future no matter where he goes and in what scheme so long as nobody tries to play him at ILB.

5. Buccaneers: Brian Burns (Edge-FSU)

The Buccaneers seem to actually believe in Jameis Winston. God only knows why. I could see the Buccaneers trying to get out of this pick. They need help badly in the secondary (Kentrell Brice is listed as a starter on their ourlads depth chart), but there just isn't anything here worth trying to make work unless they want to try Devin Bush at Safety. That's not going to happen so they go and draft another pass rusher to compete with Carl Nassib next to Jason Pierre Paul.

Burns is just too good of a prospect to fall very far. He doesn't really have the counter moves (no, his spin move doesn't count) but those can be developed. His first step and ability to hit the edge hard and flatten out is very top shelf. The rest of his game will flesh out in the pros.

6. Giants: Ed Oliver (DT-Houston)

Eli Manning is terrible. Do not let the late season uptick in statistical production fool you, he is awful. The Giants seem bound and determined to run this flagging horse into the ground, so here we are. If you can name me a player starting on the Giants front line right now I would be extremely impressed. 

Oliver comes in and slides in next to [checks notes] Dalvin Tomlinson to form some kind of defensive line. He'll do well as a penetrating 3T who can use his great first step and jarring punch to get after the QB. Played anywhere else, his lack of length could potentially be a problem.

7. Jaguars: Jawaan Taylor (OT-Florida)

The Jaguars roster is pretty damn solid with BDN manning the QB spot now. They should be able to get close to the strong season they had two years ago rather than the whimper that was last year. The big weakspot on their roster is at RT where Will Richardson Jr and Cedric Ogbuehi will be battling over that spot. 

Taylor steps in immediately and offers a solution at that RT spot. He's exactly what you want when drawing up a Tackle, long, strong, already physically developed. The hands aren't where they need to be, but that part can be worked on. Taylor should be able to provide at least passable production as a rookie immediately with very good upside.

8. Lions: Rashan Gary (DL-Michigan)

The offensive group for the Lions is amazing in that there isn't a single player in that group that I feel could be described as anything other than average. Every single player on offense is uninspiring but not terrible. The defense is sorta the same way but at least they have Flowers (get ready for a hard regression here btw) and Slay who are both good players. Some seem to be saying that particular condition means they can take a luxury pick on offense. I disagree and could easily see them going Rashan gary if the board falls like this.

You're not drafting Gary here because of what he did at Michigan last year. You're drafting Gary because of his amazing ceiling. He has the potential to be the best front line guy in this class if he ends up at 3T and really develops his game. The Lions will give him an opportunity right away to split reps with Robinson and also rotate in on some pressure package looks. This has the chance to be a great fit for both parties.

TRADE ALERT: Bills send #9 to the Redskins for #15 and #46

9. Redskins: Dwayne Haskins (QB-tOSU)

Redskins need a QB. and so do the Broncos who are picking at #10 and the Dolphins who are picking at #13. They need to trade up and get their guy before Elway takes him. Alex Smith's career is over if he has any brains at all which leaves Colt McCoy starting. That can't happen.

The Redskins grab Haskins who while inconsistent last year, had highs that were every bit as good as any player in America. The key is going to be developing consistency. Still didn't do a film read on this one, but I watched enough tOSU games this year to form some commentary.

10. Broncos: Devin White (ILB-LSU)

The Broncos don't really have any needs other than QB where they just acquired Joe Flacco. They could go in a lot of different directions here, but I eventually settled on what I think most people would consider BPA.

White's a heat seeking missle. Reads the lanes well and fills them violently. He's got the athleticism to get sideline to sideline and drop when required. The drop reads will require some work, but nobody's coming out perfect at this stage in the draft.

11. Bengals: TJ Hoeckenson (TE-Iowa)

This is exactly the kind of stupid pick the Bengals make here. They need help at all levels of their defense and at QB, but they're happy as hell to draft a TE.

Hoeckenson's a good player who will be a solid pro starter. He'll be a very competent blocker and knock out a whole bunch of 800 yard, 6TD seasons while being a fan favorite.

12. Packers: Montez Sweat (Edge-Mississippi State)

The Packers call everybody looking for a trading partner who want to jump the Dolphins to grab either Lock or Jones and are met with resounding disinterest from everybody. Torn between Jonah Williams, Christian Wilkins and Montez Sweat, the Packers eventually settle on the Edge Rusher. 

Sweat's not a sack artist. He does a lot of things well, but when it comes to winning clean, that's not really his thing. He'll develop into a strong "walk-ya-back" rusher who will do some good things pushing the pocket and will get a handful of sacks and hits, but I'm not expecting a 13 sack year out of him anytime soon. 

+++

30. Packers: Noat Fant (TE-Iowa)

I don't love this pick, but I'm also underwhelmed with my options at 30 and he could use a developmental year learning from Graham and letting Rodgers get comfortable with him before he starts full time.

Fant is fast, fluid, and does his job in the pattern. His hands are questionable at times and he won't be a plus pass rusher immediately, but he brings a lot of things to the table and has superstar potential.

44. Packers: Greg Little (OT-Ole Miss)

The mock I was using had both Simmons and Tillery still available here but I wasn't going to pull the trigger on either one because I don't think they'll be available.

Little is a guy who has an unbelievable ceiling and just hasn't put it together to the point where it's consistent production. I feel like teams are either going to turn the tape off in disgust or grit their teeth through it and be excited for the potential. Hopefully the Packers can get the most out of him.

75. Packers: Deionte Thompson (S-Alabama)

I need another Safety before I can go into this seson with any level of confidence. Thompson isn't great, but he'as also fairly dependable to be in the right spot. This allows Amos to move down into the box and do some different things. I hate trying to project Safeties.

114. Packers: Renell Wren (DT-ASU)

Don't think he's going to be available here, but another good athlete DL to throw into TC competition to see what shakes loose.

118. Packers: Andy Isabella (WR-Massachusetts)

I know a bunch of you want a token slot guy. I know a bunch of you want a legitimate 4.3 WR. Here's both. There's some upside there given development, and I like UMass WRs.

150. Packers: Darrell Henderson (RB-Memphis)

Another warm body to add to the rotation. We've now got 3 cheap RBs to carry the load. I don't want to hear anything else about it. 

185. Packers: TJ Edwards (ILB-Wisconsin)

Always need at least one bruising ILB for short distance run defense. Edwards offers that and can run down on Specials.

194. Packers: Cole Tracy (K-LSU)

Crosby needs some competition

226. Packers: Alec Ingold (FB-Wisconsin)

I guess we're using FBs again. Should probably have one if we're hell-bent on going down this path.

Burns not being there at 12 hurts. He's my favorite at 12 if Oliver isn't there. Sweat has bust written on him and I can't explain why for some reason he just gives me that vibe. The rest of that draft is a grand slam. Henderson, Isabella and Fant would be fun to watch in this offense.

[AlexGreen#20]

1 minute ago, packfanfb said:

No pictures? You call that a mock?

In my defense, it didn't start out as a mock. It started out as a prospect list. Then I found I really didn't give a **** about what any of these other teams had going on and was too lazy to go back and change it.

[Golfman]

2 minutes ago, Leader said:

You of all people will find a way to complain. Some how....some way......

i got nuttin' with this one. I think that is realistic as to how the board will fall too. I could see Sweat getting swapped with Burns no complaints. 

[AlexGreen#20]

1 minute ago, St Vince said:

Burns not being there at 12 hurts. He's my favorite at 12 if Oliver isn't there. Sweat has bust written on him and I can't explain why for some reason he just gives me that vibe. The rest of that draft is a grand slam. Henderson, Isabella and Fant would be fun to watch in this offense.

He doesn't win clean. It's certainly something to be worried about.

[Leader]

Just now, Golfman said:

i got nuttin' with this one. I think that is realistic as to how the board will fall too. I could see Sweat getting swapped with Burns no complaints. 

Between now and draft day I'm gonna be putting up Sweat posters on all the telephone poles surrounding One Buc Place
With some Devin White's mixed in........

[deathstar]

11 minutes ago, Leader said:

Between now and draft day I'm gonna be putting up Sweat posters on all the telephone poles surrounding One Buc Place
With some Devin White's mixed in........

I’ll hit you up for one because I’m a Sweat fan.

[Leader]

2 minutes ago, deathstar said:

I’ll hit you up for one because I’m a Sweat fan.

Wellllllll.........I dont want to diss the guy cause he might just wind up on our roster (and is your personal fav.......) So, let me put it to you this way.......I wish him all the best with his NFL career, which hopefully, will be with another team

[Isherwood]

1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

12. Packers: Montez Sweat (Edge-Mississippi State)

The Packers call everybody looking for a trading partner who want to jump the Dolphins to grab either Lock or Jones and are met with resounding disinterest from everybody. Torn between Jonah Williams, Christian Wilkins and Montez Sweat, the Packers eventually settle on the Edge Rusher. 

Sweat's not a sack artist. He does a lot of things well, but when it comes to winning clean, that's not really his thing. He'll develop into a strong "walk-ya-back" rusher who will do some good things pushing the pocket and will get a handful of sacks and hits, but I'm not expecting a 13 sack year out of him anytime soon. 

+++

30. Packers: Noat Fant (TE-Iowa)

I don't love this pick, but I'm also underwhelmed with my options at 30 and he could use a developmental year learning from Graham and letting Rodgers get comfortable with him before he starts full time.

Fant is fast, fluid, and does his job in the pattern. His hands are questionable at times and he won't be a plus pass rusher immediately, but he brings a lot of things to the table and has superstar potential.

44. Packers: Greg Little (OT-Ole Miss)

The mock I was using had both Simmons and Tillery still available here but I wasn't going to pull the trigger on either one because I don't think they'll be available.

Little is a guy who has an unbelievable ceiling and just hasn't put it together to the point where it's consistent production. I feel like teams are either going to turn the tape off in disgust or grit their teeth through it and be excited for the potential. Hopefully the Packers can get the most out of him.

75. Packers: Deionte Thompson (S-Alabama)

I need another Safety before I can go into this seson with any level of confidence. Thompson isn't great, but he'as also fairly dependable to be in the right spot. This allows Amos to move down into the box and do some different things. I hate trying to project Safeties.

114. Packers: Renell Wren (DT-ASU)

Don't think he's going to be available here, but another good athlete DL to throw into TC competition to see what shakes loose.

118. Packers: Andy Isabella (WR-Massachusetts)

I know a bunch of you want a token slot guy. I know a bunch of you want a legitimate 4.3 WR. Here's both. There's some upside there given development, and I like UMass WRs.

150. Packers: Darrell Henderson (RB-Memphis)

Another warm body to add to the rotation. We've now got 3 cheap RBs to carry the load. I don't want to hear anything else about it. 

185. Packers: TJ Edwards (ILB-Wisconsin)

Always need at least one bruising ILB for short distance run defense. Edwards offers that and can run down on Specials.

194. Packers: Cole Tracy (K-LSU)

Crosby needs some competition

226. Packers: Alec Ingold (FB-Wisconsin)

I guess we're using FBs again. Should probably have one if we're hell-bent on going down this path.

Smiling and nodding at this mock. I'd be pretty happy with it. I think everyone is in their appropriate draft slot, except for some reason I feel like one team who really loves him is going to reach for Andy Isabella an entire round early. Where you have him is where he should go, though. I could see GB making Renell Wren their customary "3rd round WTF reach" pick, themselves.

[AlexGreen#20]

 

I don't know what to make of this one to be entirely honest. 

3 sack game is obviously studly, but he's running that arc on all three, and only on the third one is that a tight arc. He's only getting there when the QB is already 9 yards deep. 

Maybe I'm overthinking this one, I'm just not sure how well this game converts. 

 

I feel like Burns just cuts it a little sharper, maybe I'm crazy.

 

4:48 is where I have issues with Burns

He also drops into coverage a few times here, which is worth checking out.

Also did not realize that NC State kicked FSU's teeth in this year. Ran the ball right down their throats whenever they wanted to.

[Leader]

8 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I feel like Burns just cuts it a little sharper, maybe I'm crazy.

No....you're not crazy.

Question - keeping the discussion between Burns and Sweat.....kinda......
If Burns is gone.......
Whats the spread on games between Sweat and some other EDGE (not projected for top ten selection.....) sayyyyyyyy: Ferrell?

Is it worth considering passing on Sweat - nabbing another / different top talent and position - and going after someone like Ferrell (or some other player you can cite) later on?

OR -

Is the spread on talent too great that you cant / dont pass on Sweat?
 

[deathstar]

6 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

 

I don't know what to make of this one to be entirely honest. 

3 sack game is obviously studly, but he's running that arc on all three, and only on the third one is that a tight arc. He's only getting there when the QB is already 9 yards deep. 

Maybe I'm overthinking this one, I'm just not sure how well this game converts. 

 

I feel like Burns just cuts it a little sharper, maybe I'm crazy.

Do the sum of the other parts put one over the other? To me with Sweat they do.

[festiveonion]

17 hours ago, Chili said:

Just working my way down the WR list tonight. I just have to say that J.J. Arcega-Whiteside is a damn good player.

Sure he lacks the speed to make him a truly legit no.1 WR but he compensates in so many other ways. His jump ball and catch radius is elite. He does a great job of boxing out corners. His hands is superb. He shows really good footwork to gain that initial separation. His sense of timing and awareness of where he is on the field is very good. He's very competitive and does all the little things well to maximise his talent. He's consistently drawing flags from opposing corners. He's damn hard to deal with and its not hard to understand cos one look at him and you naturally kinda underestimate him.

He's not going to be a Jordy Nelson in this league but I think he will be a highly productive player on the right team. Not sure it is us though as I feel our offence need a speedier WR to complement Adams and to stretch the field but I wouldn't be against taking him at all in the 2nd or 3rd.

Love him and the lack of discussion is kinda surprising on this sub  forum, which appears to be really knowledgable. 

Bolded stands out. His situational awareness is fantastic and he looks awful fluid. Great sideline/backshoulder guy. Uses his hands very well. Red zone threat. 
Maybe not as elusive or 'quick twitch' as a #1 guy should be but I completely agree with your analysis. Seems to be good at a lot. Plus+ in a few.  
3 cone would be telling if that info was available (if anyone has it I'd be very interested). If he ran it at his pro day I can't find it. Makes it hard to fall in love with him without it. 

Strictly as a Packer, he seems like he would fit damn well next to a guy like Adams. Not sure he's a stretch the field guy per se and likewise not sure he needs to be for us with MVS/EQ here. 

Some of those sideline throws kinda look like Jordy. Not a terrible comp actually. I kept thinking Mike Evans III Jr. but then again I'm an idiot so take that with a grain of saline. 

Just seems like one of those players we who could sneak in high. No question he's gone by our 3rd for me. Could very easily see him going high 2 during that somewhat inevitable receiver run around that 28-40 area. Maybe a trade down/up candidate for me if he's there at 50. Like him a lot but that lack of 3 cone is a little concerning.  

[ThatJerkDave]

After watching just those three videos, I think Sweat seems to have more hustle in pursuit when a play is away from him.  I really like Burns' speed, and he has added weight, but in the NC State game he got handled by the TE/FB a couple of times.  What would a guy like Marcedes Lewis, Jason Witten, or Marty B do to him? Let alone an NFL tackle? I still like Burns, and he is still who I want at #12, but there is a lot of work for him to do to make that pick worth the investment.

 

Also, who is the LT for NC State? That guy was winning a heck of a lot of his match-ups against FSU.

[Golfman]

1 minute ago, ThatJerkDave said:

After watching just those three videos, I think Sweat seems to have more hustle in pursuit when a play is away from him.  I really like Burns' speed, and he has added weight, but in the NC State game he got handled by the TE/FB a couple of times.  What would a guy like Marcedes Lewis, Jason Witten, or Marty B do to him? Let alone an NFL tackle? I still like Burns, and he is still who I want at #12, but there is a lot of work for him to do to make that pick worth the investment.

 

Also, who is the LT for NC State? That guy was winning a heck of a lot of his match-ups against FSU.

Great points! I don't think any of the EDGE rushers are going to be productive year one, sans Bosa and Allen. I think you are going to have to coach them up big time year one and get some production out of them year two if it takes. Burns and Sweat will be situational guys and may not get on the field ahead of Fackrell in their rookie year. I think we'd better prepart for that if we select either. Just trying to live in reality and not fantasy as it relates to the 'other' top EDGE rushers. 

Oliver would be a guy who would play and win inside year one if we were lucky enough for him to fall. That is a slot for Z. Smith as it stands now on the roster for 3rd down situations.