Is John Elway still an elite GM?

[Soko]

Elway’s catching a lot of flak because of the present state of the Broncos, but he did build one of the GOAT offenses and an all-time defense - both with pretty mediocre head coaches (that he hired, to his detriment).

He’s not an elite GM right now but he’s not inept. I think most GMs go through rough patches, and a fallout post-2015 was expected given how many of those players were more great FA finds than homegrown talent guys.

[SilverNBlackFan]

Never was

[lomaxgrUK]

5 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

If you ask a hundred fans on this site the question:

"Would you trade 5-7 years of sucking in exchange for a Super Bowl win ?"  Many / Most would say YES !!!!

That's what happened in Denver. 3 excellent seasons, 1-1 in the SB. Another banner was raised, broncofans were in HEAVEN

But now they've got 2-4 more years of sucking to look forward to.
That was the deal that Elway made with the Devil....and Bronco fans are now languishing in the HELL part of the deal he made.

Elite ? Don't think so, but winning a Lombardi on the field and in the front office puts him in rare air

I think this is an excellent take. Living in Manchester as a United, I've been spoiled by consistent sporting (specifically, Soccer) success for pretty much my entire life but the Broncos Superbowl 50 sits up there with the greatest sporting fan moments I've had.

Yes, Manning was the biggest reason for the wins Elway obtained early in his tenure. But who was the one that sold the winning pitch to Manning? Elway. Let's not act like Elway didn't play a massive part in getting Peyton to actually become a Bronco.

People also act like selecting Von Miller was the nailed on choice in his first ever draft pick. That is absolutely not true. Many people on this forum alone slammed Elway for not taking Marcell Dareus because of the DT issue that had plagued Denver for years.

He also built one of the greatest Defensive teams of all time, with every starter on Defense sans Chris Harris being selected/signed by Elway. That said ...

His drafting hasn't been consistent at all. His 2017 draft may well go down as one of the worst in Bronco history. Of his 8 selections a mere 18 months ago, 1 is a starter (Garret Bolles, one of the worst starting LT in the league), 1 is on IR but was a starter before the injury (Jake Butt), 1 is a gameday inactive every week, 3 have been cut and 2 are on the PS. 

His 2018 draft which includes Chubb, Sutton, Freeman, Jewell and Hamilton may well have bought him extra time but he may end up being forever remembered for passing on Rosen and Allen when we had no (viable) starting QB on the roster.

Is he an elite GM? No. But at one point he was certainly in the discussion. It's hilarious that the position he played is the position he is clearly the worst at evaluating.

[Elky]

Elway was never an elite GM to begin with. While he has his strengths, such as recruiting free agents, he's struggled at drafting lately and his HC hirings have been lackluster.

As for Tebow, they had to upgrade him because Tebowmania was simply put not sustainable. However, if he wasn't so stubborn about playing QB, he'd be a killer gadget player like Taysom Hill. Tebow may have been a poor full-time QB, but he's a terrific player.

[Fl0nkerton]

9 hours ago, 7DnBrnc53 said:

Maybe. He was more promising than Trevor Siemian and Osweiler, I know that much.

I just googled him. Is that 40 time real for Sloter? lol

[lancerman]

10 hours ago, BayRaider said:

Is this massive sarcasm?? 

Tim Tebow was terrible, they were getting wins because it was a talented team keeping them in games.. and Tebow would decide to look halfway decent the final 2 minutes of most of games (awful the first 58 minutes). They would of had to pay Tebow to keep him and they are already paying Peyton for 4-5 years. 

Tebows a cool guy man, and had some entertaining comebacks, not knocking you if you’re a fan, just the guy is a terrible NFL QB. He shouldn’t of even been a 1st Round Pick, should of been a 3rd Rounder but Josh McDaniels was worse than Chip Kelly when it came to personnel decisions. 

Aside from Peyton Manning which was a rare situation that shouldn’t even count because it’s next to never that a guy at his level is allowed to walk no strings attached, wants to play in the AFC and probably wouldn’t want to go into his firmer to division to compete with his old team, his rivals division where he has to get by the Patriots each year OR the AFC North which has generally been very strong and outside the Browns was set at QB. Peyton was a lay up. It was the best division in the conference he wanted to play in and the best city that wasn’t completely set at QB (San Diego had Rivers) 

Aside from lightning striking, Tebow so far has been the best QB in a Broncos uniform not named Peyton Manning 

[Broncofan]

9 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

Elway’s catching a lot of flak because of the present state of the Broncos, but he did build one of the GOAT offenses and an all-time defense - both with pretty mediocre head coaches (that he hired, to his detriment).

He’s not an elite GM right now but he’s not inept. I think most GMs go through rough patches, and a fallout post-2015 was expected given how many of those players were more great FA finds than homegrown talent guys.

This is probably as accurate as it gets, along with @Shanedorf.    If ppl really want a full breakdown (WARNING - it's long lol), well here goes. 

Elway is excellent at several aspects of the GM job:

1.  Cap management with the contracts he builds - never back-loaded, avoiding cap hell down the line.

2.  Until this year, never restructured, found ways to address team needs to avoid future cap hell.   #1 and #2 are big ways in which he kept the franchise perennially in contention.

3.  Excellent at ID'ing late-round / UDFA / bargain basement talent - UDFA list includes Chris Harris Jr, Shaq Barrett, CJ Anderson, and of course, this year, Philip Lindsay.   There are more, but those are notable current impact guys (Barrett when healthy, which has been an issue).    Great FA bargain signings like Manny Sanders at 5M a year, Darian Stewart at 2M a year.   His Day 3  draft record actually is better than his Day 2 record, and probably stands in the top 5 for finding impact guys.    His Day 3/UDFA drafts and bargain FA finds are a huge reason why we stayed at the top even when our Day 1-2 picks didn't work out.  

4.  When he was a rebuilder in 2011-12...he embraced the full rebuild.   This shows he can switch modes (the question now is, will he).   It's no coincidence the 2011 draft was his best ever, and one of those historic type drafts that changes a franchise while the rookies are cheap (and so much more than just Von, we just 5-6 starters from that team, 3-4 impact guys).  It's why our 2018 draft gives us a ton of hope, first time we see 3-4 rookies are actually having early impacts.

5.  When we got our butts kicked in SB48, Elway changed the team completely from Peyton-O driven and OK D to focus purely on building an elite D, and let Peyton work with less - and we saw the results in SB50.  Elway didn't quite expect Peyton to fall off the cliff for 2015, but more to the point, SB48's loss and 180 showed that Elway was willing to admit mistakes, and change directions.  Again, the key is now, is he willing to do the same.  Now some fans would argue not many GM's get a chance to do what he did, and that's fair - but many GM's fail to do either #4 or #5 when given the chance).   I would also recognize that Elway's 2018 draft was notable for its' complete 180 in embracing more metrics, and going for football skills first, and not athletic tools - which has been a huge downfall of Elway's 2014-17 early Rd1-2 draft troubles.  That willingness to change is probably the most hopeful sign that Elway hasn't "lost it".

______________

Those are Elway's strengths.   His weaknesses, though, are glaring - they weren't apparent in 2015 - but they became apparent in 2016-17, even when many DEN fans wouldn't admit it, they are obvious to see now:

1.  He & Kubiak cannot evaluate young QB talent well - the only good move he made was that he realized Tebow wasn't a good QB (and frankly, that wasn't hard to see).   Then, it just gets ugly.   He took Osweiler in a meh QB draft class.  All right, you get a pass.  But taking Lynch Rd1, and then actually offering Osweiler an extension (which he turned down to go to HOU, so he saved Elway, not the other way around)?  Ugh.   And then taking Case Keenum and passing on Josh Rosen?   That's a pretty clear indictment that Elway & Kubiak (who came back after a 1+ year hiatus to health, and was a huge influence on the draft/Keenum signing - so Kubiak doesn't get a pass, he was around for the Lynch/Oz extension decision, even if he wasn't around for the draft choice of Oz).

2.  Elway fell in love with high-physical tools, low-football skills guys, so much that he routinely wasted Day 2 picks on guys who had no business going Rd 4-5.   From 2012-17, we had 13 picks - only 1 became a starter, Justin Simmons (ok we can say 2/14, because Derek Wolfe was picked #35 overall - but that was a trade down from Rd1, so why I leave it out, but if you want to get technical, there you go).  The rest washed out, or were just rotational guys.   Now, Day 2 is no lock - but 1/13 is awful for starters - not talking impact starters, but actual league-average starters.    It also explains why Day 3, his approach works - because if you are going to gamble late, those tools guys can hit big.  But to waste Day 2 picks and not get proven football talent, it's why our roster depth has deteriorated so badly.

3.  Finally, Elway today CANNOT give up on a year before it begins...even when he should.   2018 should have been a year we hunkered down, and spent no real $, saved cap space, and looked to 2019.   Get a stopgap QB like McCown for 1 year, draft QBOTF 1.5 (nothing against Chubb, just not worth a QBOTF when you had the 4 QB's available this class - even though I'm not a believer in Allen, because his profile is the one we fail at, and highest bust chances, no arguing his tools and ceiling).   Instead, he went for Case freaking Keenum at 36M/2 years, saying this team is built to win now - when it clearly wasn't. THAT decision likely haunts us for 2-3 more years.   He also started drafting Rd1 in 2014 as a "1 player away" team for need - which was a bad approach.  While Roby was bad luck in not working out, pure need picks like Garrett Bolles to play LT and ignoring BPA (over trading up 3 spots to get OJ Howard, or taking Reuben Foster, or trading down and getting a Cam Robinson or Ryan Ramczyk - all deals Elway confirmed were offered to him) have just killed our talent, just as much as his Day 2 whiffs did.  This year, he also restructured Von so we could get win-now aging vets - which has flamed out predictably.   It shows the level of panic that going with the win-now approach creates, when your team isn't that good.  Fortunately, judging by the rumors that DT, Marshall, Ray, Barrett & Roby were all available for trade (doubt anyone picks up the first 2, Barrett/Ray & Roby could for sure), it sounds like Elway finally realizes win-now isn't going to work. But much like OAK/NYG, Elway would have been much better served to think 2019+...in March, not October.

#4.   What #2 and #3 speak to - Elway in 2013 got humbled in SB48, and said, it's time to change.   Elway's 2017 draft humbled him to the point he changed his draft approach completely in 2018.  Those are actually strengths.  The weakness it demonstrates - Elway's first default move is to think he's the smartest guy in the room.   And it's why all team control pretty much falls to him - THAT is the structural weakness in our org.    No great HC or GM wants to come to DEN - because they won't have nearly as much control or power over team makeup as long as Elway is the GM.     Now, I'd say in 2011-12, maybe he was one of the smartest guys around the league, and being totally in charge works if that's the case.  But times change, and it's clear he's a smart and talented GM - but not smart enough to run all aspects of the team in today's game.  It's a great sign that Elway changed after SB48 and then in this year's draft - but humility isn't his strong suit, and willingness to cede power for sure isn't.  It would help him a lot more if he defaulted to realizing he shouldn't have total control over all aspects of the team.   Is he finally willing to accept that?  I know he's willing to change, but to give up more power - I really don't know there.

 

____________

So, total tally - Elway got the elite label in 2015, and when his weaknesses weren't easy to see (or at least the team results because of his strengths were good, the W-L record covered them up).   Now, with the weaknesses for everyone to see, no, not elite for sure.   But also, still not terrible.  If he can find a QB, the strengths far outweigh the weaknesses - especially since #2 and #3 might be changing.    Having said that, if he can't shake the inability to develop the right QB, and he can't get off win-now / draft early for need mode....he's not lasting in DEN.  He for sure will get 1 more chance to pick the right HC (VJ was not the right call at all) and get 1 more shot to pick the right QB.  The scary part is if he puts his chips in the 2019 QB draft class, it's not even close to as good as the 2018 draft class (all 5 QB's taken Rd1 in 2018 would likely be hands-down the #1 QB in 2019).   It was why losing Chad Kelly yesterday hurt long-term - not that he was a lock to be our guy, but if he even offered the hope he could be, we likely would have waited until 2020's QB class to dive in Rd1.  Now, it's a 50-50 prop we go there, and that's pretty scary, given how meh the top-end class is.

[SBLIII]

12 hours ago, kingseanjohn said:

I don’t think Elway was ever an elite GM. Peyton made him and since his departure they haven’t fared very well. 

Ironically they won the SB not because of Peyton but because of the talent he drafted and acquired on defense. He deserves much recognition for that achievement. 

[Ryan_W]

still shocked I had to get to page 3 of thread before I read the word 'defense'

the TT mention was welcome of course, I can imagine him watching SuperBowl LII and learning the true meaning of Christmas when a champion Quarterback has to run AND catch TDs and his faith is renewed. whereas the QB that can't catch gets coal in his stocking.

I would bring him back to todays NFL just to get the rules eased up a bit on tackling QBs; no need for the subtle Ben flopping when you have the TT bull charge coming for ya

[BayRaider]

36 minutes ago, SBLIII said:

Ironically they won the SB not because of Peyton but because of the talent he drafted and acquired on defense. He deserves much recognition for that achievement. 

They did win the Super Bowl because that was probably a Top 10 Defense of all time, but Peyton definitey played a part. Without Peyton, that window never opens to begin with in 2012. Not to mention some of those FA’s probably wouldn’t of signed. Also, Peyton played well in the playoffs with his experience. No doubt in my mind they would of lost to NE if they started Osweiler. I 100% agree they won because of having a Top 10 Defense in history but people writing off Peyton like he wasn’t even part of the team is laughable. He absolutely deserves to say he is a 2x champion proudly.

[Broncofan]

12 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

They did win the Super Bowl because that was probably a Top 10 Defense of all time, but Peyton definitey played a part. Without Peyton, that window never opens to begin with in 2012. Not to mention some of those FA’s probably wouldn’t of signed. Also, Peyton played well in the playoffs with his experience. No doubt in my mind they would of lost to NE if they started Osweiler. I 100% agree they won because of having a Top 10 Defense in history but people writing off Peyton like he wasn’t even part of the team is laughable. He absolutely deserves to say he is a 2x champion proudly.

People forget that no one wanted to spend 20M a year on neck-surgery return Peyton.    Elway was bold enough to commit.  He was also bold enough to sign Ware to the same FA contract as the top FA that year got who were much younger, when whispers were that he was declining, same for Aqib Talib - who both signed for the exact same money as guys like DRC (seen as better FA targets because they were younger).   And he still drafted Malik Jackson, Derek Wolfe, Brandon Marshall/Danny Trevathan, Roby, Harris Jr. in draft/UDFA and traded for TJ Ward.   Plus, everyone had a shot at signing guys like Sanders (5M a year) & Stewart (2M a year, come on) - those weren't stars who took discounts, they were diamonds-in-the-rough Elway was smart enough to get.  

And as you recognize Elway built an all-time great D, well, the argument gets kind of silly.   He brought Peyton in, he built the D, and built the team.  And he built that D literally 2 years after getting his *ss handed to him by a similar generational D.

He's not elite anymore, because his weaknesses were masked by his strengths.  But discrediting Elway for SB50 comes off as pretty insane.  He rightfully gets the lions share of credit as a GM there - just like he deserves the lions share of the blame for 2016-18.  

[43M]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

This is probably as accurate as it gets, along with @Shanedorf.    If ppl really want a full breakdown (WARNING - it's long lol), well here goes. 

Elway is excellent at several aspects of the GM job:

1.  Cap management with the contracts he builds - never back-loaded, avoiding cap hell down the line.

2.  Until this year, never restructured, found ways to address team needs to avoid future cap hell.   #1 and #2 are big ways in which he kept the franchise perennially in contention.

3.  Excellent at ID'ing late-round / UDFA / bargain basement talent - UDFA list includes Chris Harris Jr, Shaq Barrett, CJ Anderson, and of course, this year, Philip Lindsay.   There are more, but those are notable current impact guys (Barrett when healthy, which has been an issue).    Great FA bargain signings like Manny Sanders at 5M a year, Darian Stewart at 2M a year.   His Day 3  draft record actually is better than his Day 2 record, and probably stands in the top 5 for finding impact guys.    His Day 3/UDFA drafts and bargain FA finds are a huge reason why we stayed at the top even when our Day 1-2 picks didn't work out.  

4.  When he was a rebuilder in 2011-12...he embraced the full rebuild.   This shows he can switch modes (the question now is, will he).   It's no coincidence the 2011 draft was his best ever, and one of those historic type drafts that changes a franchise while the rookies are cheap (and so much more than just Von, we just 5-6 starters from that team, 3-4 impact guys).  It's why our 2018 draft gives us a ton of hope, first time we see 3-4 rookies are actually having early impacts.

5.  When we got our butts kicked in SB48, Elway changed the team completely from Peyton-O driven and OK D to focus purely on building an elite D, and let Peyton work with less - and we saw the results in SB50.  Elway didn't quite expect Peyton to fall off the cliff for 2015, but more to the point, SB48's loss and 180 showed that Elway was willing to admit mistakes, and change directions.  Again, the key is now, is he willing to do the same.  Now some fans would argue not many GM's get a chance to do what he did, and that's fair - but many GM's fail to do either #4 or #5 when given the chance).   I would also recognize that Elway's 2018 draft was notable for its' complete 180 in embracing more metrics, and going for football skills first, and not athletic tools - which has been a huge downfall of Elway's 2014-17 early Rd1-2 draft troubles.  That willingness to change is probably the most hopeful sign that Elway hasn't "lost it".

______________

Those are Elway's strengths.   His weaknesses, though, are glaring - they weren't apparent in 2015 - but they became apparent in 2016-17, even when many DEN fans wouldn't admit it, they are obvious to see now:

1.  He & Kubiak cannot evaluate young QB talent well - the only good move he made was that he realized Tebow wasn't a good QB (and frankly, that wasn't hard to see).   Then, it just gets ugly.   He took Osweiler in a meh QB draft class.  All right, you get a pass.  But taking Lynch Rd1, and then actually offering Osweiler an extension (which he turned down to go to HOU, so he saved Elway, not the other way around)?  Ugh.   And then taking Case Keenum and passing on Josh Rosen?   That's a pretty clear indictment that Elway & Kubiak (who came back after a 1+ year hiatus to health, and was a huge influence on the draft/Keenum signing - so Kubiak doesn't get a pass, he was around for the Lynch/Oz extension decision, even if he wasn't around for the draft choice of Oz).

2.  Elway fell in love with high-physical tools, low-football skills guys, so much that he routinely wasted Day 2 picks on guys who had no business going Rd 4-5.   From 2012-17, we had 13 picks - only 1 became a starter, Justin Simmons (ok we can say 2/14, because Derek Wolfe was picked #35 overall - but that was a trade down from Rd1, so why I leave it out, but if you want to get technical, there you go).  The rest washed out, or were just rotational guys.   Now, Day 2 is no lock - but 1/13 is awful for starters - not talking impact starters, but actual league-average starters.    It also explains why Day 3, his approach works - because if you are going to gamble late, those tools guys can hit big.  But to waste Day 2 picks and not get proven football talent, it's why our roster depth has deteriorated so badly.

3.  Finally, Elway today CANNOT give up on a year before it begins...even when he should.   2018 should have been a year we hunkered down, and spent no real $, saved cap space, and looked to 2019.   Get a stopgap QB like McCown for 1 year, draft QBOTF 1.5 (nothing against Chubb, just not worth a QBOTF when you had the 4 QB's available this class - even though I'm not a believer in Allen, because his profile is the one we fail at, and highest bust chances, no arguing his tools and ceiling).   Instead, he went for Case freaking Keenum at 36M/2 years, saying this team is built to win now - when it clearly wasn't. THAT decision likely haunts us for 2-3 more years.   He also started drafting Rd1 in 2014 as a "1 player away" team for need - which was a bad approach.  While Roby was bad luck in not working out, pure need picks like Garrett Bolles to play LT and ignoring BPA (over trading up 3 spots to get OJ Howard, or taking Reuben Foster, or trading down and getting a Cam Robinson or Ryan Ramczyk - all deals Elway confirmed were offered to him) have just killed our talent, just as much as his Day 2 whiffs did.  This year, he also restructured Von so we could get win-now aging vets - which has flamed out predictably.   It shows the level of panic that going with the win-now approach creates, when your team isn't that good.  Fortunately, judging by the rumors that DT, Marshall, Ray, Barrett & Roby were all available for trade (doubt anyone picks up the first 2, Barrett/Ray & Roby could for sure), it sounds like Elway finally realizes win-now isn't going to work. But much like OAK/NYG, Elway would have been much better served to think 2019+...in March, not October.

#4.   What #2 and #3 speak to - Elway in 2013 got humbled in SB48, and said, it's time to change.   Elway's 2017 draft humbled him to the point he changed his draft approach completely in 2018.  Those are actually strengths.  The weakness it demonstrates - Elway's first default move is to think he's the smartest guy in the room.   And it's why all team control pretty much falls to him - THAT is the structural weakness in our org.    No great HC or GM wants to come to DEN - because they won't have nearly as much control or power over team makeup as long as Elway is the GM.     Now, I'd say in 2011-12, maybe he was one of the smartest guys around the league, and being totally in charge works if that's the case.  But times change, and it's clear he's a smart and talented GM - but not smart enough to run all aspects of the team in today's game.  It's a great sign that Elway changed after SB48 and then in this year's draft - but humility isn't his strong suit, and willingness to cede power for sure isn't.  It would help him a lot more if he defaulted to realizing he shouldn't have total control over all aspects of the team.   Is he finally willing to accept that?  I know he's willing to change, but to give up more power - I really don't know there.

 

____________

So, total tally - Elway got the elite label in 2015, and when his weaknesses weren't easy to see (or at least the team results because of his strengths were good, the W-L record covered them up).   Now, with the weaknesses for everyone to see, no, not elite for sure.   But also, still not terrible.  If he can find a QB, the strengths far outweigh the weaknesses - especially since #2 and #3 might be changing.    Having said that, if he can't shake the inability to develop the right QB, and he can't get off win-now / draft early for need mode....he's not lasting in DEN.  He for sure will get 1 more chance to pick the right HC (VJ was not the right call at all) and get 1 more shot to pick the right QB.  The scary part is if he puts his chips in the 2019 QB draft class, it's not even close to as good as the 2018 draft class (all 5 QB's taken Rd1 in 2018 would likely be hands-down the #1 QB in 2019).   It was why losing Chad Kelly yesterday hurt long-term - not that he was a lock to be our guy, but if he even offered the hope he could be, we likely would have waited until 2020's QB class to dive in Rd1.  Now, it's a 50-50 prop we go there, and that's pretty scary, given how meh the top-end class is.

tl;dr...but you deserve a rep point for typing that much.

[CP3MVP]

2 hours ago, BayRaider said:

They did win the Super Bowl because that was probably a Top 10 Defense of all time, but Peyton definitey played a part. Without Peyton, that window never opens to begin with in 2012. Not to mention some of those FA’s probably wouldn’t of signed. Also, Peyton played well in the playoffs with his experience. No doubt in my mind they would of lost to NE if they started Osweiler. I 100% agree they won because of having a Top 10 Defense in history but people writing off Peyton like he wasn’t even part of the team is laughable. He absolutely deserves to say he is a 2x champion proudly.

Peyton was arguably the worst player in the nfl in 2015. He would’ve thrown 30 interceptions if he started 16 games. They won in spite of him

The Brock point is hilarious because they beat NE THAT season with a Brock

[Buckweath]

He is one of the worst GM in the league and was never good to begin with. I am surprised to see this thread.

His time will be up sooner rather than later in Denver.

[CP3MVP]

Also who were the great defensive free agents that came to Indy to play with Peyton during his prime?