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Who gets the top two seeds in AFC


Blackstar12

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10 minutes ago, Bolts223 said:

Yeah.

The thing is I really don't think the Chiefs are better than us. Our offense can do everything that theirs can and our defense is quite a bit better.

The thing is that we always crap the bed whenever we play them and play like garbage. I'm not sure why, maybe it's the Andy Reid factor. For that reason I'm not confident we will beat them, but I do think we stack up pretty evenly against them. (Especially once Bosa is back)

It's frustrating because I could get over these losses to the Chiefs a lot more easily if I felt like it was the Chiefs who beat us and not ourselves.

 

Too true man. Rivers started his career 12-4 against the Chiefs and has now dropped to 12-13. Turnovers killed us in both games last year.

Also worth noting that Rivers has thrown 35 tds to 31 picks in his career vs KC, pretty poor stats considering how good his numbers usually are..  I think priority #1 when we play them again - Do NOT turn the ball over!

 

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I think it will stay as KC and NE. They're the front runners as is, KC has a pretty strong history of success against the Chargers under Reid, and the same is true for the Pats against the Steelers under Belichek. 2013 was the last time the Chargers beat the Chiefs, and 2011 was the last time the Steelers beat the Pats, so the history is there in the head to head matchups, and LAC losing to KC and/or Pit losing to NE would pretty much ice things there.

If LAC and/or PIT can pull the upset in those games, it gets more interesting, but still not guaranteed. 13-3 almost looks like a borderline pessimistic outlook for KC, as things stand, and the Pats only have two games left that look loseable. So you could have a situation where LAC needs to win out to take the division from KC, and Pittsburgh also has several tough opponents left on the schedule. So even if LAC and Pit beat KC and NE respectively, it could be a tough road. Add in that LAC plays Pittsburgh, and it makes it even less likely that both teams overthrow the current #1 and #2.

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KC and NE

KC gets to 13 wins without breaking a sweat.  Probably get 14 though.  Their only tough games remaining are LAR and LAC.  They probably win one of those.  I don't see LAC running the table, though it's possible.

NE i think gets to 12 wins, with a decent chance to hit 13 as well.

Pittsburgh i think will get to 11 wins.  Wins against Jags, Broncos, Raiders, Bengals and Chargers.  I think they lose to the Saints on the road, and NE at home.

Texans are kind of a weird long shot in that they have by far the easiest schedule remaining, but are probably the worst team of the 5 we're talking about.  Can they run the table?  Yes, they are better than the 7 teams they have left to play.  Will they run the table?  Probably not.  I think 10-11 wins is a comfortable projection.

 

The real question is who gets that #3 seed and a pseudo-1st round bye?  Pittsburgh or Houston?  One of them will have the great pleasure of playing one of the following pretenders: Bengals, Titans, Colts or Dolphins.  Maybe the Ravens, but i think very likely not given they've lost 3 in a row, and have several tough games left including Bengals, Chiefs, Chargers, Falcons and Browns.  Their only gimme is the Raiders.

I think Pittsburgh likely gets it, because Pittsburgh's 11 wins > Houston's 11 wins with that tie.

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Pitt is looking scary right now. Their rushing attack is running like a freight train and Roflburger historically wins big games with like 150 passing yards and 1 TD. Its that tie and early season losses hurting their chances right now. #2.

The Chiefs defense actually makes plays against the pass and their running game still hasn’t hit full steam. All they have to do is win the games they’re supposed to win to take #1. Just watch out for a late-season slump.

The Pats have a historic X-factor but that Titans loss really hurt them in terms of seeding. I like their odds in the postseason but that’s not what this thread is about so probably #3 for them.

Philip Rivers will have to overcome a history of stat padding in meaningless losses. He’s always been capable of making plays, just not in a winning way.  Pretty much a lock for a wildcard but not a top seed.

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4 hours ago, H.E Pennypacker said:

 

Too true man. Rivers started his career 12-4 against the Chiefs and has now dropped to 12-13. Turnovers killed us in both games last year.

Also worth noting that Rivers has thrown 35 tds to 31 picks in his career vs KC, pretty poor stats considering how good his numbers usually are..  I think priority #1 when we play them again - Do NOT turn the ball over!

 

He also started with LT as the best back in the league and Gates in his prime. Kind of different.

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Chargers fans have to stop with that silly narrative that they are a better team or more talented than the Chiefs. They are not.

I mean how many times do the Chiefs need to beat you before you understand that? And the last time they met, at your place, the Chiefs beat your team from start to finish.

The Chiefs offense is clearly better than the Chargers' (better QB and better pretty much at every receiving position) and the Chargers defense is just a bit better than the Chiefs.

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19 hours ago, Classic said:

Not Tom Brady. Dilly Dilly!

You're utterly obsessed. You have Kansas City eating their lunch out of your fridge, yet you can't get over the Pats. KC will be giving you more miserable days than the Pats ever had in the next 5-10 years. 

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10 minutes ago, Blackstar12 said:

I really don’t get why Steelers are getting dismissed so much. Their offense is on a roll and the D is doing enough to get by. I guess it’ll come down to that Pats- Steelers game.

It will.  But the reason, for me at least, is that their schedule to end the year is much tougher than the Pats.  For that reason alone, i think it's KC #1, Pats #2.  Steelers claim #3 and Houston gets #4.

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